Two Deep Class Breakdown: Michigan by Phil Steele
Looks like Michigan fields the least experienced 2 Deep team in all of college football next year, according to Phil Steele. He has Wolverines ranked 130th (last) in the land.
This probably explains why Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin and Ohio State are getting most of love for 2017.
I do think Phil Steele's method has its flaws because if you look at his predicted depth charts for teams in his magazines, they are frequently way off from actual starters for that season, ignore the reality of injuries, upperclassmen burnouts (never hitting the starting lineup) and the effect of his so called "VHTs" (very high talent) incoming freshman who do start and many of whom play comparatively-to-remarkably well to alternatives on the roster. I bet Phil Steele has Solomon Vault listed as a starter for Northwestern, for example. He's injured and will miss 2017.
Whatever.
FWIW, I sorted the data for Big Ten teams and Notre Dame here. Note not a single Big Ten team cracks the Top 20 in Steele's 2 deep experience.
Will put my faith in Harbaugh and Downtown Brown and cheer the team on like a mad man no matter what.
| Rank | Team | Conference | PTS | SR ST | SR 2D | JR ST | JR 2D | SO ST | SO 2D | FR ST | FR 2D |
| 22 | Northwestern | Big 10 | 73 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 4 |
| 28 | Purdue | Big 10 | 72 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| 48 | Iowa | Big 10 | 68 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 4 |
| 61 | Indiana | Big 10 | 66 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 70 | Minnesota | Big 10 | 65 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 4 |
| 76 | Penn St | Big 10 | 64 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 5 |
| 83 | Rutgers | Big 10 | 63 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 87 | Ohio St | Big 10 | 62 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 5 |
| 87 | Wisconsin | Big 10 | 62 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 7 |
| 87 | Maryland | Big 10 | 62 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 106 | Nebraska | Big 10 | 58 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 7 |
| 112 | Notre Dame | Big 10 | 57 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 4 |
| 127 | Illinois | Big 10 | 46 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 7 |
| 127 | Michigan St | Big 10 | 46 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 130 | Michigan | Big 10 | 40 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
In large part because Jake Long did not go into the 2007 draft. He came back for his final year of eligibility and was drafted #1 overall in 2008. (Sorry, Jasper -- that's a paddlin').
Your point seems to be that we should expect big things every season, because we could be better than people think. But in making that point, you keep asserting that you shouldn't be optimistic for teams that seem like they're set up for success. Why point out that hyped teams didn't win big when trying to convince people that not hyped teams could win big?
What is Uncle Leo's deal? Nobody is making guarantees or excuses. We are just making reasonable assessments of future seasons based on the depth chart / recruiting classes.
As a couple of people point out above, the 2014 and 2015 recruiting classes lacked depth (and the 2013 class had a lot of stars but also a lot of busts). Those 3 classes are the backbone of nearly every team in the country and don't even make up half of our 2 deep.
Doesn't mean that we can't make a run, but things have to line up just right whereas in future years, the odds will be stacked in our favor.
You don't need to go through someone else to get the answer.
Because I am 31 years old, and I haven't heard a fan base do the whole "Wait until X year" more than this one.
Nothing will ever set up ideally with depth. Being "older" does not equate to being better. Teams are winning with freshman and sophomores.
Apparently I believe in the talent on this team to do great things more than you guys.
The fact that I replied to someone else's post is kind of irrelevant. It's not like I am DMing people off the board.
It's great that you believe in the team and I do too, I am just trying to be objective in my views.
My point, and your being 31 confirms my point, that you just need to chill and enjoy it for what it is. I hope they win the big prize this year, if not, I will enjoy the season and look forward to 2018.
I do to! But I get exhausted with the "wait until X year" game. It is a common occurence with this fan base.
Shit in one hand. Believe in the other. See which one fills up first. Your last line about believing in the talent more than us guys is a little much on the histrionic side. To the point though, saying teams are winning with freshman and sophomores is silly. Of course they are. No team has only juniors and seniors. Try harder
(Responding to uncle leo)
I'm pretty much in agreeance with everything you are saying. I understand this team lost a lot of upperclassmen. But I'm not going to rationalize a way that 8-4 or 9-3 would be just fine and we'll get 'em next year.
I'm expecting this team's win total to be double digits, not even counting a bowl game. They flat out have more talent than 8 of the teams on the schedule and probably more than PSU and Wisc. Win the games.
Football seasons are too short to throw away and wait for "next season". I've said over and over, but we've been waiting for "next season" for a decade.
It's like a big stone wheel that you have to get rolling. It takes a little bit of time to get it moving, but once it starts rolling, it's going to keep freaking rolling. Harbaugh is recruiting at top 5 pace and he has shown the ability to develop the potential of those recruits. After he gets his kids up and down the lineup there's no question that Michigan is going to be a playoff contender every year.
Yes, Brady Hoke had 2 amazing recruiting classes that he did nothing with. Harbaugh had a limited window to come in and take his shot with those kids, and we were a couple inches short of it working out. Hoke's last two classes sucked, and so we have an especially young team, but with a hell of a lot of potential getting developed by one of the best coaching staffs in the country.
I understand it's a hard ask for patience after years of being asked for patience by incompetent coaches and then sniffing the air of greatness last year. But this isn't the same request that was made when Hoke and RR were coaches. Jim Fucking Harbaugh is at the helm. If this year is a dip from last year, it will still be a year that is turning that big stone wheel, and once it gets started it isn't going to slow down.
Harbaugh recently said something along the lines of we have a lot of good, young, and talented players on the team - and that's a lot better than having untalented ones. Not an exact quote, but that's the gist of it.
Youth on the team is definitely a challenge. But since we've got experience at QB, DL players who were "in the rotation" last year, and a shit-ton of talent coming in at WR (where experience matters, arguably, the least), I'm cautiously optimistic.
Comparing how we stack up to RR and Hoke teams is setting the bar pretty low.
Talented youth will often beat untalented experience - but talented experience will generally beat talented youth.
I can't help but see the parallels from OSU's 2016 team. Yes! I know some of you don't believe in the power of Harbaugh and we just aren't there yet in terms of reloading vs. rebuilding. Next year is always the year...I respectfully disagree.
2015 OSU lost:
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Three of five starting offensive linemen
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The starting tight end and H-back
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The top three running backs
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Two of three starting receivers
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Two of four starting defensive linemen
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Two of three starting linebackers
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Three of four starting defensive backs
They were the least experienced team going in to 2016 still made the CFP. They had more questions marks at key position than we do. Our young talent may not be at the same level as OSU's going into the 2016 season but we aren't far behind. Plus we have Harbaugh and his relentless will to get better everyday and milk, lots of whole milk! How do we improve over the last two years?
11-1 or bust! Go Blue!
But OSU could have easily been 9-3 last year (if got late-season Oklahoma instead of early season OU they would have lost). Not to mention coin flip games against Wiscy, MSU and Northwestern and some friendly refs against Michigan.
If we get some breaks, we will be 11-1; if not, 9-3 but looking great for 2018.
I see Purdue at 28. Apart from Northwestern - everybody else is just green. Have you seen the chart? It's a helluva start.
Purdue could be made into a monster if they all pull together as a team.
I've always had a deep respect and I mean that most sincerely; Purdue is just fantastic, that is really what I think.
By the way, which one's Pink?
Boilermaker football has been a grand tire fire for 8 straight seasons.
Last winning season was 7-6 in 2011 (Danny Hope!) and 2007 before that (8-5, Diabeetus Tiller).
Brohm's record at WKU was impressive. Boilermakers will operate a pass-centric spread offense (of course) with a heavy helping of Bobby Petrino philosophy (Louisville, Arkansas).
Brohm played QB at Louisville in the late 1980s under Howard Schnellenberger.
Under Brohm Purdue's gonna go far. Purdue's gonna fly high, they're never gonna die. They're gonna make it if they try.
This isn't a surprise. Anyone who spends any time thinking about who Michigan will be putting on the field knows this. This team is as young as any Michigan team in my memory.
Which, btw, is partly why Brady Hoke continues to be a topic, to reference a thread from a little while ago; the roster is still reeling from problems he created.
The Phil Steele hate from elements here continues to amaze me. Sure, he gets stuff wrong occasionally--everyone does--but they take the massive amounts of data that he collates (and that he explains, thoroughly if in incredibly small print, in each magazine) and find one or two areas they disagree with and then dump on him.
Without, you know, suggesting either better analysts or better techniques. Because there isn't a lot that's clearly better. He writes an annual, his audience pays attention. He's been pretty accurate about a lot of things.
And right now he says that Michigan is young, and he's absolutely right.
i don't disagree with you. I am unashamed to say that I buy his magazine and enjoy reading it every year. One of my few indulgences.
It is tiny print, but it kicks the shit out of anything ESPN, Sporting News, SI and Athlon's national and conference college football mags manage to throw together.
HTTV is better, but that goes without saying.
I merely shared my observation. And yes, Steele gets a lot of prognostications wrong, but not for a lack of trying or applying incorrect statistical methods. Sometimes his predictions are Beano Cook level wrong because he is human and has his favorites/biases (esp. Oklahoma for some reason).
So I have no axe to grind except my own bias for Michigan. I do find our tendency to err amusing. Even endearing. But nothing more.
Your paragraph detailing some of your objections was... long. Still, my mistake if I'm overly connecting you with those on the board who can't miss a chance to slam him. Your post has some affection for his material.
He gets stuff wrong occasionally. There have also been a number of years where people have slaughtered him for his unenthusiastic Michigan predictions preseason, predictions that wound up looking pretty good in retrospect.
I understand the reasoning behind it, but Cincinnati is just as deserving. They've been to the same number of BCS/CFP games as ND since 2009 (2).
Bold prediction:
NW wins the B1G West with an 11-1 record, but then loses the B1G Championship game.
The one loss will be to Wisconsin (which means they beat PSU!).
Wisconsin will lose their last two games of the year after starting 10-0, closing with back-to-back losses to Michigan and Minnesota.
Northwestern vs Indiana - feel the excitement!
Can't wait to watch Mike Debord and Mick McCall try to out-vanilla the other
It'll be cool when we win the Big Ten this year.
Indeed. There are no Freshmen by the time you hit the Ohio State game.
in steeles defense he publishes his annual magazine each june...pretty sure he talks to most coaching staffs and does fair amount of due diligence but hes still projecting rosters / 2 deeps, record predictions, playoff participants, etc several months prior to start of fall camp.
some people give him a hard time but steele has been pretty solid historically, at least when considering his methods and timing of his magazines release.
not many others release projections and data with equal ink given to michigan and central michigan or osu and akron. i cut the dude some slack bc he attempts to tackle every FBS squad and while i recognize its shortcomings, his publications are still very useful
I like our team this season but it reminds me a lot like 2015 - lot's of talent, some question marks, thin at key spots.
2015 Harbaugh's 1st year 2017 Harbagh's 3 year
2015 Durken's 1st year 2017 Brown's 2nd year.
Harbaugh had to get that 2015 team to understand how to win, I think they have a better idea of that now, plus these are guys he recruited, and when I listen to Don Brown talk about this group I can't wait to see them in action.
Where was OSU on this list last year?
123, in fact three of the four playoff teams were 102 or below. Bama was high at 68, and as my post below says, Clemson was dead last.
Clemson was dead last.
Hey, just like us!
Heh.
Meh, Clemson was 128 out of 128 last year. Meaningless metric.