The TCU vs OSU question
I’m assuming the only drama left is who UM will play in Az.. I also realize this post has the half life of a midnight burrito dropped on Bourbon st, but I didn’t see this particular topic discussed directly on any posts so I figured I would start it and risk the “been there, done that” police :)
There seem to be writers on both sides of TCU vs. OSU at 3, with the former being larger in number (including Vegas?) but the latter seeming more convinced they are right.
We all know the relative merits of both teams at this point and it seems they are close enough that the committee can spin their decision any way they want.
Also, I’m a fan so my take has nothing to do with my belief in the UM team, etc. UMcan and should beat either of them if they prepare well, etc
With that in mind, I don’t want OSU at 3. While part of it is they seem to be a clearly better team on paper, stars, etc. , I want them to have to earn a rematch with UM. One of the things about the game is that there are 364 day stakes at a minimum, which can be even longer when you lose/win a few in a row. While I know that this will all be moot in 2 years with the 12 team cfp, I feel that it’s unfair in a cosmic sense that a loser in the game has to do nothing more than sit at home to get a rematch it backed into. Now if OSU beats UGA and UM wins by all means that makes a rematch something special, but otherwise it is essentially a mulligan fora team that doesn’t deserve it imo.
As such, I want TCU/OSU in that order. UGA gets the tougher matchup but for what would amount to a home game for them. TCU is not penalized for playing an extra game, one lost in OT on a questionable spot. OSU makes the party but has to earn the right to potentially avenge 11/26.
We will know soon enough….
December 4th, 2022 at 11:33 AM ^
I want that burrito.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:51 AM ^
A midnight burrito dropped on Bourbon Street? Does NOT sound the least bit appetizing. Actually, sounds like first cousin to a Cleveland Steamer. Or a Chicago Sunroof.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:33 AM ^
It has to be TCU. Ohio State sneaking into this thing just pisses me off. I hope Georgia destroys them.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:41 AM ^
I think with regards to the OSU-UGA match, the more they destroy each other's team, the better. I hope the refs call nothing and whatever team crawls across the finish line is a shell of it's once glorious 5-star-laden-NFL practice-team self.
That or at full strength and we can flex our team's supposed weaknesses all over that team. Can't throw, no pass rush, no Heisman candidate RB...no problem.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:44 AM ^
It’s like you read my mind.
December 4th, 2022 at 12:11 PM ^
Kinda torn there. Don't want OSU to win a playoff game ever, but I also think they would be an easier opponent in the final and I want us to win a national championship
December 4th, 2022 at 11:34 AM ^
TCU should be 3 but if it’s Ohio State, I can’t wait to see the headlines after we beat them 3 times in 13 months.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:37 AM ^
On paper OSU is the better team but TCU has the better resume. Played a much better schedule and lost in a much more competitive way to a team it had already beat. Wins are better the loss is much better at least using the margin and location. I think it’s a no brainer from money considerations and spirit of competition to put TCU third and OSU fourth.
All that said if it is OSU bring it on. This team is ready to beat them on a neutral site beating a team twice in the same season be damned.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:43 AM ^
If we beat OSU twice this year, do we get an automatic win via forfeiture next November?
December 4th, 2022 at 11:49 AM ^
No, you used that up in 2020.
December 4th, 2022 at 12:02 PM ^
Come on Chuck. That was a bad year and even bringing that up is unreasonable. There were more important things than Football.
December 4th, 2022 at 12:10 PM ^
Even the seemingly most reasonable members of that fan base don't really believe that. Reminding them is lost time typing it or saying it
December 4th, 2022 at 12:22 PM ^
Buckeye Chuck seems pretty reasonable. I think that was actually a pretty good burn.
December 4th, 2022 at 1:11 PM ^
I love how Buckeyes bring up a mythical avoidance to try to make up for two straight beat downs. It’s like State rooting for OSU every year in order to get gratification
December 4th, 2022 at 11:37 AM ^
Look down the board, it’s already decided.
FanDuel isn’t putting out lines for games that don’t exist.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:38 AM ^
Teams that play an extra game vs don’t should be easy to handle. Give each team that didn’t make it a half win and half loss (we don’t know how they would’ve done) on their comparative record.
Georgia 13-0
Michigan 13-0
TCU 12-1
OSU 11.5-1.5
USC/Clemson 11-2
Bama/PSU/Tennessee 10.5-2.5
December 4th, 2022 at 11:44 AM ^
Very fair way of handicapping the non-conference final players. You want to earn that extra half win, earn your way into the championship game and go get it, like we and Georgia did.
December 4th, 2022 at 12:03 PM ^
I like this pattern of thinking
December 4th, 2022 at 11:39 AM ^
I don’t think the committee wants an SEC or BIG 10 rematch in the semis. And viewers don’t want to see it.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:42 AM ^
And I think the committee wants a Georgia v. Michigan final, and I suspect they see the best way to achieve that is by having Michigan go through TCU to get there. Yeah, it means the possibility of a all-B1G final, but I suspect they think Georgia can take care of OSU, which is probably true.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:40 AM ^
I want OSU again. Giving them back to back losses would be absolutely glorious.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:40 AM ^
It would be an embarrassment for the committee to move Ohio State UP 2 spots into the #3 seed while they had the luxury of sitting on their couches in the comfort of their home watching another team give it their absolute all only to lose in OT by a matter of inches and then move said team DOWN a spot because they lost and Ohio State was ordering pizzas at home while watching everything unfold.
Plain and simple. Ohio State hasn't earned a rematch with Michigan, yet... and quite frankly, it would be a slap in Michigans face if Ohio State were awarded a semi final rematch. TCU also doesn't deserve to be paired against the proverbial favorite to win it all.
That said. The committee is a joke and Im fully expecting Ohio State to be #3.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:49 AM ^
My exact sentiment. The fact that it doesn't make sense is why I'm so sure they'll be 3.
Plus, I think more than any rematch concerns they want to award UGA with the perceived easier game.
I should be wrong and hope to be but I feel like they'll jump OSU two spots for doing nothing but getting beat by 22 in their last home game.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:53 AM ^
Yeah good call about them getting absolutely SMOKED by 22 points in their house the last game of the season.
Unfortunately, recency bias makes it seem like "The Game" was MONTHS ago.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:41 AM ^
What changed between last Tuesday and today that justifies putting OSU higher than TCU? Yes, TCU lost. But it's not like they were blown out (cough, USC, cough). They lost narrowly in OT and looked reasonable to the eye test during the game. Did that loss REALLY negatively impact their resume so much to vault OSU over them? I just don't see it. Would be ridiculous if it happened.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:51 AM ^
Moving a team up two spots for resting at home while others played would be another gigantic stain with the playoff committees logic.
Sure, move them up ONE spot because USC shit the bed...twice...against Utah, but to leapfrog Ohio two spots and over a team who lost an all time classic B12 Championship game in OT would be sickening.
As I said above. The committee is a joke and I'm fully expecting Ohio to somehow move up 2 spots for doing absolutely NOTHING.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:42 AM ^
TCU is the easy three. Much better loss (in playoff game, in OT, neutral/road site, against a team they beat before) than OSU (ass-kicked at home), and as-good/better wins. This is a situation where "no penalty for playing in a conference championship game" has real legs.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:43 AM ^
You just posted about my ultimate nightmare…something that has been nagging at me ever since USC lost Friday night. The possibility of NOT being able to savor that win in Columbus for an entire year. The mere thought is driving me nuts.
On a side note: I have a friend in Alabama who is fully convinced that the playoff committee won’t take TCU over Alabama. He also got excited last night when Michigan was trailing Purdue 10-7 because he thought a Michigan loss would drop us below Alabama, despite their two losses.
O.K.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:43 AM ^
The TCU resume looks better than the OSU resume. In my opinion losing in conference championship games should be viewed as only half a loss in general, and for TCU to lose in overtime against a top 10 team and after receiving a couple of bad spots in overtime, that loss should not, in my opinion, be used as a significant negative to their resume.
OSU I'm sure has better athletes, but it would be a shame if potential was prioritized over results in the selection process. Or if tv ratings for a Michigan osu rematch were to factor in. OSU is lucky to back into the playoffs, they should consider themselves lucky to be the 4seed.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:50 AM ^
...and why in the world didn't their coach officially challenge that terrible, terrible spot?
December 4th, 2022 at 11:57 AM ^
My recollection is they reviewed the 2nd down play and still left it two feet further than he obviously reached, the 3rd down play they certainly got short changed at least a foot if progress but the camera angle didn't allow a conclusive view that he got in, although I think it suggests that he was in
December 4th, 2022 at 11:45 AM ^
There is no question. TCU will be #3 in the CFP rankings today...
TCU finished 12-1. OSU finished 11-1.
TCU lost in overtime in the Big 12 championship. OSU got stomped at home for their final game.
There is no question.
#1 GA
#2 UM
#3 TCU
#4 OSU
It's over. People need to stop posting this TCU/OSU #3 question.
#GoBlue
December 4th, 2022 at 11:53 AM ^
On top of that, KState was ranked #10 (higher than either of Bama’s “quality losses”). Not exactly scrubs that they barely lost to.
December 4th, 2022 at 12:09 PM ^
I want you to be correct.
December 4th, 2022 at 2:26 PM ^
Wins over FCS opponents do not count, at least that’s what the committee said in the first year.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:46 AM ^
Were we better than Georgia last year when we were two and they were three? No, but we had the better resume because Georgia lost the SEC championship. So there’s precedent. No way OSU hops TCU.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:47 AM ^
Hoping it's TCU at #3. We'll know soon.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:48 AM ^
I like how you phrased it with OSU having to earn a possible re-match with us. Just being handed one on a silver platter would be a travesty.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:52 AM ^
Agreed. OSU should have to earn a rematch.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:53 AM ^
I will be very surprised if committee does anything that is fair. OSU should not be in the playoff. They did not play in the championship.
If they are, they should not be above a team that was in the championship.
But, this committee ranked Clemson above UM. Kept OSU above UM week after week. I have no idea how these ADs who are in committee keep their job.
May be they will surprise me.. we will know in a few minutes.
December 4th, 2022 at 12:01 PM ^
There's not really a 4th team that's "earned" the right to be in playoffs. I'd prefer OSU be left out but don't have a 4th team more deserving
December 4th, 2022 at 12:12 PM ^
It is based on perspective. It is not based on a formula or metrics. That is the issue with these things. OSU did not play well for a while. But the narrative is they are great on offense and really good on defense. Yet, they almost lost to Maryland just a few weeks ago. I wish USC would have refused to play in conference championship and saved their QBs legs. That is the unfair part about all of this. USC did not need to play in that game to prove. It doesn't matter. It is what it is. I think OSU is in and I hope they get smoked by Georgia.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:59 AM ^
Don't worry, guys. Warde is on the playoff committee, and he'll take a stand and put his foot down to make sure we get fair seedings.
December 4th, 2022 at 12:07 PM ^
lol
The most terrifying thing is that the Michigan voice of reason in that room is Warde Manuel.
He has to recuse himself when Michigan talk comes up but your job is to both be honest and do a bit of lobbying for your interests. No blatant views but be the guy that calls for common sense when anyone talks of adding Bama or jumping OSU to 3 for sitting at home.
There are worse people to send but there are certainly better.
December 4th, 2022 at 12:02 PM ^
Yeah, that's the way I feel about it. The most important thing is if OSU qualifies, Alabama doesn't get in by any conceivable way, shape or form.
The committee seemingly moved Alabama to a final step invitation based on catastrophic chaos occurring over the weekend. That didn't really happen, and Saban's direct line to the committee through FOX and ESPN interviews shouldn't give Alabama any benefit of doubt.
When Michigan lost to Ohio State in 2006, Urban Meyer pushed relentlessly against the idea of a The Game rematch in the BCS final and that helped keep Michigan out. I just don't expect Ohio State to survive Georgia if they are voted in as expected shortly.
The Final AP poll has all the playoff teams slotted as expected: Georgia, Michigan, TCU and Ohio State followed by Alabama and Tennessee. Those last two are simply a nod to the SEC. Quite honestly, I have little respect for the Vols, which is not a complete team, lost to Purdue in a shootout in a backyard bowl game last year. Defeating Alabama at home was the equivalent of Michigan breaking through against OSU last year at home, but by a lesser measure.