Semi OT: The Big 12 Race

Submitted by ak47 on November 12th, 2018 at 11:28 AM

Most people on this board seem to think the biggest threat to a 1 loss playoff for Michigan is Georgia beating Bama and Bama getting in over Michigan.  I disagree with this for two reasons; 1) A 1 loss bama getting in over 2 loss OSU means nothing for this scenario and 1 loss Michigan is getting in over a non conference champ 1 loss Bama and 2) Bama isn't going to lose so it isn't going to come up.

To me the much bigger threat is a 1 OU with the number 1 offense in the country getting in over 1 loss Michigan, and a big reason I'm concerned about this is because we are going to be playing a 4 loss (and would anyone really be surprised if they lost to minnesota) NW team while OU will likely be playing a top 15 team. That would allow OU to be able to make a "statement" in the big 12 championship game by blowing out a good team a la OSU blowing out Wisconsin to jump TCU and Baylor while Michigan is in a lose lose situation where a blowout of NW impresses nobody and a close game looks bad. Given that what do you all think is the ideal scenario for us for the big 12 championship game?

Possibilities given OU winning out (Iowa state and Texas play this weekend, both are currently in the top 25):

OU vs WVU (playing back to back weeks, would be 10-2 going into the game with losses to OU and Iowa state)

OU vs Iowa State (Iowa state will be 10-2 with loses to Iowa and OU and  would certainly be top 15)

OU vs Texas (In this scenario Texas is 10-2 with losses to WVU and MD and is also certainly top 15)

Figure it could be fun to talk about on a slower with Indiana up (and yes I know this means nothing if we don't beat OSU)

Comments

ak47

November 12th, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^

Can't edit but you are right, Texas does have 3 losses. Given they are ranked #19 already though I am still confident they would end up top 15 going into the game with 2 more wins including one over Iowa state. So number of losses is wrong, ranking projection still feels accurate.

Realus

November 12th, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^

The biggest problem for OU is that in three out of the last five games, they have won by less than a touchdown.

Not a good look for them at all.

Perkis-Size Me

November 12th, 2018 at 12:49 PM ^

Bingo. A championship-caliber offense and a defense that's not even bowl-eligible. What's going to happen to them when they run into a team that can score as much as they can, but also knows how to play defense (like Alabama or Clemson)? 

My guess is that's a one hit KO punch, and Oklahoma ain't getting up off the mat. 

stephenrjking

November 12th, 2018 at 11:56 AM ^

Against bad teams while playing zero defense. 

They needed Oklahoma State to miss a 2-point conversion. Oklahoma State is 5-5. They squeaked by a bad Texas Tech team that played most of the game with its backup QB. And remember when they went to OT against Army?

In contrast, our one loss was a close road loss to a team currently in the playoff. And we’re killing everyone else. Wisconsin has looked kinda sad, and MSU and PSU aren’t awesome, but they’re all better than Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. 

I suppose if we look bad in wins against IU and hypothetically against NW, we might tug our collars a bit if OU starts killing people. But right now it’s not a serious threat. 

Hemlock Philosopher

November 12th, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^

Are we talking about the same OU that has given up 46 and 47 points in regulation in the past two weeks? and gave up 48 to Texas? and had to use OT to get past Army? Their Offense may be good, but their D is downright offensive. ...

They probably won't get past WVa. Look at the three teams in that scenario: Michigan (road loss to #3 ND), OU (neutral loss to 20-25ish Texas), WVa (road loss to 15ish ISU). They match up well with a one-loss Ohio St, but not with Michigan.

jimmyjoeharbaugh

November 12th, 2018 at 11:40 AM ^

man the psyche changes fast around here. just the other day we were saying the committee was dying to put us above ND. now it's we're going to get jumped by Ga, OU, and 3 other SEC teams because we only beat RU by 35 with half the team sitting out. 

i hate to be that guy, but let's just win and let those things work themselves out. can't control it anyway.

maybe should not have scheduled ND opener on the road this year. If that game was Army/App St/some other cupcake we'd be undefeated and unquestioned top 4. would be Bama, Clemson, Michigan/ND. 

L'Carpetron Do…

November 12th, 2018 at 1:09 PM ^

Yeah, the end of season schedules in SEC are weird, mostly because they have to accommodate out-of-conference in-state rivals.  At least UGA-GT is a traditional rivalry (and who knows GT plays a wacky option offense that trips teams up sometimes).

But what I object to, and I complain about this every year, is the weak cupcake game in the 2nd to last game that all the SEC teams seem to have on the schedule. It's fine if you have to play an OOC rival in your last game but I think its bogus to insert an FCS team into your schedule in late November, especially when you take into account that other teams fighting for a CFP spot are in conferences that are beating each other up (I seem to remember a season a few years ago when Ohio State had to play Michigan State and Michigan back to back to end the season while Alabama got to play Georgia Southern before facing Auburn). 

Blau

November 12th, 2018 at 11:43 AM ^

Win out and we’re in. It’s that simple. Georgia could possibly jump us but nothing has led me to believe anyone is going to be beat Bama short of the NC game. 

Red is Blue

November 12th, 2018 at 12:40 PM ^

Going by the current rankings, to win to the NC game, Alabama has to beat #5, #4 and #2/3.  If #2/3 could beat them in the championship game, don't #5 and #4 have almost as good a chance at beating them before that?  Ie, there is not a lot of apparent difference in the caliber of Alabama's last 3 opponents (assuming a march into the NC game).

707oxford

November 12th, 2018 at 11:43 AM ^

I actually think the NW rematch (regardless of their record) is a positive for M as it could be another data point in our favor vs. ND.

NW is the only common opponent for both teams.  M played NW early in the season and had to pull out a nailbiter.  ND played them just a couple weeks ago and didn't fare much better.  If we play them in the B1G title game and blow them out, it demonstrates what everyone has been saying - that M is the most improved team in the country and is actually probably a better team than ND, despite the head-to-head result (on the road, at night, in a one-score game that came down the the last drive) in Week 1.  

mGrowOld

November 12th, 2018 at 11:49 AM ^

Did you happen to hear Lee Corso on Gameday?  He said "any final four without Alabama would be a farce" regardless of the outcome to Georgia.  And I know I'm in in the minority here worrying about it but I think he speaks for a LOT of the talking heads at ESPN which controls the money which controls the committee.

And FWIW the arguement that a one loss Alabama wont hip-check us out because it wont happen is silly.  The whole POINT of the discussion is if Alabama loses.  If they dont then it's a completely mute point.

M-Dog

November 12th, 2018 at 12:13 PM ^

"Lifetime Achievement Award."  Seriously.

On paper they would not have a better resume.  But because they are Alabama, there will be calls for them to be in based solely on the past, irrespective of this season.

The committee is supposed to be above this kind of thinking, but it's not a certainty.

 

Pepper Brooks

November 12th, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^

CFP Selection Committee Protocol

How to select the four best teams To compete for the College Football National Championship (Adopted unanimously by the BCS Group June 20, 2012)

...

When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:

• Championships won

• Strength of schedule

• Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)

• Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

 

(emphasis on must added by me)

based on this we get in before Bama if they lose in SEC championship game, and our better SOS

Reggie Dunlop

November 12th, 2018 at 11:59 AM ^

I love Lee Corso and the job he has done for college football in general and I hope he works on Gameday forever. He brings a smile to my face every Saturday.

Lee Corso suffered a stroke 10 years ago and can barely put together a full sentence. And you want me to fear that he speaks for a secret band of big money influencers who secretly rig the CFP committee.

*mute*

 

mGrowOld

November 12th, 2018 at 12:24 PM ^

ESPN has a multi-billion dollar contract with the SEC & ACC.  ESPN controls the media narrative of who's good and who's not in college football and shockingly the SEC and ACC are consistently and massively overvalued by the committee (see Kentucky at #11 or NC State at #14 for proof).

I think it absolutely IS about the money.  It's always about the money.

M-Dog

November 12th, 2018 at 12:22 PM ^

ESPN will view it as their job to create controversy between teams 4,5,and 6. 

You can guarantee it, it won't matter who those teams are.

They are an entertainment channel, not a news channel.  They want to be entertaining, not accurate.  They would rather be completely wrong than boring.

If we are #4, they will pimp whoever is behind us, no matter who it is.  Count on it.

 

m_go_T

November 12th, 2018 at 12:59 PM ^

A conference should only get one representative, period.  This is generally a "rule" used to screw Michigan and one that is typically broken a few years later to bolster the SEC.  In 2006, the biggest argument against Michigan getting a rematch against OSU is that they had a chance to win the conference and they didn't.  In 2016, Penn State won the Big Ten and many thought Michigan and OSU were both worthy of going.  The CFP selected OSU only, mainly citing the only conference rule.  

In 2012, Alabama lost to LSU in the regular season, but the BCS broke their no rematches, win your conference rule to benefit Alabama.  In 2016, Alabama lost to Auburn and was therefore unable to win its conference (Georgia did), and the CFP put Alabama and Georgia in the final four.  Now both times, Alabama validated the respective committee, but who's to say that Michigan wouldn't have done the same.  Alabama was given a second chance, when Michigan was not afforded the same luxury.  

Consider this, in the doomsday scenario, the Big Ten with a one loss OSU or Michigan, the Big 12 with a 1 loss Oklahoma or WVU, and the Pac 10 with a one loss WSU, would get shut out for two one-loss SEC teams, an undefeated ACC team, and an undefeated ACC-ish team in ND, that played mostly ACC cupcakes and did not play the ACC champion.  IMO, this is trash from an optics standpoint.  

I think a better model would be to have a conference select its lone representative.  Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC championship, fine.  Pick your representative.   In this scenario, ND would be included in the ACC for selection purposes.  If they want to align with the ACC, they should represent the ACC and not just get the benefits of being in a conference without the downside.  

DutchWolverine

November 12th, 2018 at 11:55 AM ^

The Over/Under in those Oklahoma vs WVU games has to be close to triple digits.  Great offenses while the defenses sit on the sidelines with a bag of popcorn and a Mr. Pibb.

The Mad Hatter

November 12th, 2018 at 11:57 AM ^

The best scenario is for us to just pound the snot out of OSU. Win that one by 3 or 4 TD's and the national media will start talking about us as an unstoppable juggernaut. A team of destiny. Do the same to NU in the championship game and there's no way they keep us out. I'd actually love to see us play OU or another Big 12 team without a defense. I don't think they'd have an answer for Don Brown.

B-Nut-GoBlue

November 12th, 2018 at 11:59 AM ^

Go 'Clones.  Side not about Texas - Iowa State this weekend.  A battle for landing in the conference championship is relegated to the fucking Longhorn Network Saturday.  I do see it has WatchESPN listed so that helps quite a bit.  Just semi-annoying people in Iowa can't have easier access to this game.

B-Nut-GoBlue

November 12th, 2018 at 12:19 PM ^

Haha you haven't heard of that school?!  I got to know about it via college basketball.  They're somewhere out West I think in a conference with other...lesser known schools.  The reason for that scheduling is that there were those lightning storms happening on the Midwest opening weekend and that game was cancelled so the decided to pencil it in for December.  Iowa State officials probably thinking playing that weekend would be a longshot.  Well sure enough that game may get cancelled if they're playing in...Dallas?!...that Saturday for a conference title!

 

Also, by not playing a game opening weekend my opinion is they looked worse for it the next weekend against Iowa. A game under their belt and I've a feeling that could've gone differently.