Schedule and scenarios
Slow day on the board so....
Most of the games are lock wins or losses IMHO.
No way we are going to beat OSU, Wisc on the road, white-out @ PSU or Washington.
The first list below is if we don't improve at all from last year(s).
The second list has us winning the toss ups.
Our floor is 5-7 and the ceiling is 8-4.
The ceiling is almost exactly the same result of the 2019 season - only that year we beat ND.
We'll probably be at the citrus bowl again against a Ole Miss or Auburn.
Does 8-4 to the citrus bowl save Jimmy?
Western W 1-0
#21 Washington L 1-1
N Illinois W 2-1
Rutgers W 3-1
@#15 Wisconsin L 3-2
@Nebraska L 3-3
#27 Northwestern L 3-4
@Michigan State W 4-4
#17 Indiana L 4-5
@#20 Penn State L 4-6
@Maryland W 5-6
#4 Ohio State L 5-7
Western W 1-0
#21 Washington L 1-1
N Illinois W 2-1
Rutgers W 3-1
@#15 Wisconsin L 3-2
@Nebraska W 4-2
#27 Northwestern W 5-2
@Michigan State W 6-2
#17 Indiana W 7-2
@#20 Penn State L 7-3
@Maryland W 8-3
#4 Ohio State L 8-4
August 13th, 2021 at 12:22 PM ^
I'm taking that Friday off to mentally prepare.
August 13th, 2021 at 4:19 PM ^
Underrated comment.
August 13th, 2021 at 11:02 AM ^
I am WAY more worried about @Sparty than I am about home against Washington, regardless of how bad they were last year and how talent-dry their roster is.
August 13th, 2021 at 12:32 PM ^
This just doesn't get expressed enough on this blog. I'm worried about @MSU this year too. This fanbase just does not seem to learn its lesson against MSU. I'm fairly confident that they'll be mediocre at best this season, but it hardly matters. W/L records and performances against other teams go out the window. MSU almost always, no matter how bad they may be, flips a switch when they take the field against Michigan. Blowout wins like in 2002 and 2019 are the relatively rare exceptions.
I'm going to have to agree with an earlier poster on this thread-- that win against Michigan last year was fucking HUGE for Mel Tucker and his team. They'll be looking to make a statement in this rivalry once again and won't be the least bit intimidated playing Michigan at home this season.
August 14th, 2021 at 5:48 AM ^
I agree @MSU can never be taken for granted, but I remember a good Brian Mac front page post about how actually, the best team usually does win. The fact is that for most of the Hoke and Rich Rod eras, Dantonio's teams were just better. Then he dropped off and Harbaugh significantly improved Michigan. Record still isn't great against them in part because of one of the single worst plays in Michigan history.
August 13th, 2021 at 2:33 PM ^
I agree. Another thing to keep in mind is, under Tucker, MSU seems to be taking on the OSU mindset, with Michigan being the most important opponent on the schedule. Clearly they did not prepare for the Rutgers game the week before our game, and they lost that one. They will always give us extra focus and their best game.
August 13th, 2021 at 2:38 PM ^
I don’t think preparation was the issue against Rutgers. We moved the ball against them, and for the most part the defense did ok too. We just fumbled 5 times, giving them 3 TD drives of less than 30 yards (including one that was just 1 yard).
August 13th, 2021 at 11:10 AM ^
I shouldn't even dignify this post with a response. It's as snowflaky and low-value as possible.
Anyway, to say that any game is a "lock" win or loss is incredibly dumb. I'm sure you didn't forget about the MSU game last year. That was about a guaranteed win as possible, until it wasn't. On the other side, with the exception of last year, home games have been generally good under Harbaugh - big wins vs Wisconsin, PSU, and Notre Dame over the previous few years. There's no reason to thing Washington, coming across the country and going through their own issues, is an auto-loss.
August 13th, 2021 at 11:19 AM ^
Don't sleep on MSU, Nebraska or Rutgers, either (I can't believe I just said don't sleep on Rutgers).
MSU - We'll probably never know just how big winning that game last year was for Mel Tucker and building the foundation of his program. Is MSU going to be a good team this year? Probably not, but there's reason to believe they'll be better. They'll be playing us at home, and after what happened last year, they won't be even remotely intimidated by playing Michigan.
Nebraska - Not outside the realm of possibility that this will be a night game. If this game were in Ann Arbor, I'd feel fairly comfortable in saying Michigan should win. But Michigan hasn't been able to execute well on the road in over a decade. Scott Frost is going into this season fighting for his job, with a new AD who doesn't owe him anything and is one bad season away from wanting to bring in "his guy," so don't be surprised if Frost's team comes out desperate to win one for him.
Rutgers - Schiano has had this game circled in red ink since last year. Michigan should still win, but Schiano is going to make Rutgers into a competent, respectable program again.
August 13th, 2021 at 1:43 PM ^
MSU could be winless in the games leading up to us and I'd still be nervous about that one. It just always seems that everything that could go wrong for us, and everything that could go right for them, does. Never underestimate those fuckers.
Nebraska and Rutgers are, well, Nebraska and Rutgers. I've been an outspoken supporter of Harbaugh, but man it would be hard to keep it up if we lose those games.
August 13th, 2021 at 11:27 AM ^
I think the whole season hinges on the Washington game. A close win or a close loss to Washington would change the outlook of the whole season. A close loss means we have a shot at beating Pen St, a win make the game against Penn St. a coin-flip.
He’s safe at 8-4 if the last game is competitive, a loss by less than 10. A loss by 14 or more he’s fired.
August 13th, 2021 at 11:30 AM ^
Next time you're inclined to start a post "Slow day on the board so..."
Just click the 'x' in the tab and keep it a slow day
August 13th, 2021 at 11:43 AM ^
Your posting history is sad. Although you predicted 9 losses back in January, so I suppose you're actually feeling more optimistic.
August 13th, 2021 at 11:48 AM ^
If we do follow this 8-4 scenario and we keep "Jimmy" then we accept mediocrity. We officially join Nebraska and Tennessee. Good luck getting 100,000 at every game. Its already looking difficult this fall. Lots of tickets left for WMU, NIU, Rutgers. Sad state we have reached but here we are. The only realistic thing to make me want Harbaugh to stay is if we go 9-3 AND beat ohio state and michigan state. I pray for this every night!
August 13th, 2021 at 12:08 PM ^
If we go 9-3 with wins against Sparty and OSU, that will be a catastrophically disappointing season.
August 13th, 2021 at 1:34 PM ^
Nebraska hasn't had a winning record under Frost, and Tennessee has had one winning record since Butch Jones left. I get that you're disappointed, but we are nothing like these two teams.
August 23rd, 2021 at 12:29 AM ^
Lol. Watching Frost fail and make an ass out of himself at Nebraska has been quite entertaining.
August 13th, 2021 at 11:55 AM ^
Michigan will take the field with more talent than nine opponents, equal talent with two opponents and less talent than one opponent.
August 23rd, 2021 at 12:27 AM ^
This is an excellent point. The roster has plenty of talent.
Go Blue.
August 13th, 2021 at 12:07 PM ^
This year might resemble the 10-3 "revenge tour" season where Chase, Bush, etc., got paybacks for a disappointing 2017.
I think the defense will be much improved if for no other reason than it won't be Brown's predictable fronts and back end coverages plus potential All-American Hutchinson, potential All B10 Dax & Hawkins, a breakout season for Mazi, experieinced LB's, & the sleepers Welschof & Ojabo.
The offense has a chance to be special with a solid, diverse (speed, size) group of receivers, dynamic running backs, size & athleticism on the O-line, & finally... maybe, a QB room that will live up to their potential.
Gotta have faith, Go Blue!
August 13th, 2021 at 12:25 PM ^
When 1 of your starting DBs runs a 4.78 you’re in trouble.
August 13th, 2021 at 1:57 PM ^
Vince won’t start this year unless there is an injury.
August 13th, 2021 at 12:46 PM ^
Dude - do you watch CFB?
"No way we are going to beat OSU, Wisc on the road, white-out @ PSU or Washington."
Upsets happen all the time and Michigan was favored against washington by bookies last I checked....Maybe OSU is a pipe dream, but team talent is better at Michigan than other 3, doesn't mean they win, but "No way?" Michigan fans are in an abusive relationship with themselves.
GEEZ!
August 13th, 2021 at 1:01 PM ^
This must be the 359th iteration of the "How do you think we'll do this season" threads
August 13th, 2021 at 1:19 PM ^
Your certainty of lock wins and losses is curious to say the least. But whatever, everything goes until the games start.
August 13th, 2021 at 1:23 PM ^
Seems more accurate to say the floor is 3-9, the ceiling is 10-2, and the most likely season outcome is 6-6.
If you're going to say "well upsets happen sometimes" then the ceiling is 12-0 and the floor is 0-12. But I don't think we're in the same class as OSU or Wisconsin, nor do I think Rutgers, NIU, or WMU are in our class.
I'll love every second if we have some kick-ass season where we unexpectedly sweep through everyone and look like Harbaugh's early Michigan teams. It's not beyond the realm of possibility, but there's no reason anyone should expect it.
August 13th, 2021 at 3:32 PM ^
This team is not loosing to Washington. Also why does a white out matter for the PSU game? Does PSU get extra downs or something. The game is not determined by what the fans wear. We can easily go into happy valley and win. 10-2 is very possible
August 13th, 2021 at 3:46 PM ^
OK, I'll pitch in (although I am sure this will NOT be the last season prediction thread over the next 3 weeks)
Worst Case scenario....
Western W (24-21) 1-0
Offense continues to spirt and sputter, but Hill and Hutch make plays in the 4th quarter to save the game.
#21 Washington L (17-24) 1-1
lack of OLine plays means the offense is limited, fans are lighting torches and heading to the shed to get pitch forks....
N Illinois W (28-13) 2-1
Blah performance against a bad team, not moving the needle, bad hot takes that we should move to the MAC..........
Rutgers W (24-10) 3-1
Bloated record does not put away the torches and pitchforks....
@#15 Wisconsin L (7-42) 3-2
Might as well stop the season here, realization sinks in that Michigan is not even a middling Big Ten team
@Nebraska L (21-24) 3-3
Hang over game, season is lost... debate on whether or not to start JJ is in full bloom....
#27 Northwestern L (6-9) 3-4
JJ starts, but a revamped NU pulls out a MOON II game
@Michigan State L (14-17) 3-5
I think I will move out of the state at this point.....
#17 Indiana L (14-31) 3-6
How many decades was it before Michigan lost to IU, now 2 in a row....
@#20 Penn State L (20-31) 3-7
Road game against a ranked opponent.... Same outcome, they find a way to lose the game...
@Maryland L (24-38) 3-8
Team has given up......
#4 Ohio State L (Don't ask, it will be UGLY) 3-9
The stadium will be 3/4 red and they will be dancing on our graves.....
Now, the sunshine scenario.....
Western W (34-10) 1-0
Heavy ground game from Haskins, Cornum, and Edwards set up Cade nicely.......
#21 Washington W (31-10) 2-0
D Line is gelling with Hutch, Smith, Hinton, and Julius rotating and controlling the LOS
N Illinois W (38-6) 3-0
Bad MAC team looks like a bad MAC team
Rutgers W (31-7) 4-0
Skeptics will point to a soft early schedule (Washington is overrated...)
@#15 Wisconsin L (17-27) 4-1
The "Told you so!" crowd will be out in full force
@Nebraska W (38-13) 5-1
NU is still a bad team.....
#27 Northwestern W (31-9) 6-1
First game where some could actually say, hey these guys are not "that bad".....
@Michigan State W (24-13) 7-1
Why can't we do this at home???/
#17 Indiana W (38-34) 8-1
Can a win over IU be called a "signature win"? Nope..... but.....
@#20 Penn State W (27-24) 9-1
Road game against a ranked opponent.... This can be a landmark win.....
@Maryland W (42-27) 10-1
Trap game, but offense has embraced Speed in Space....
#4 Ohio State L (41-42) 10-2
Similar to Devin's game, score late and try for 2 to win it.... Hope they have a better play called than last time.....
So there are the 2 extremes.... I'm going to lean more towards the positive end and go with 8-4. The 4 games that are wins noted above (Washington, NU, IU, PSU) they will lose 2 of them. What will be sad is that 3 of those games are home games.....
August 13th, 2021 at 7:32 PM ^
Your worst case scenario thread...woof. But one correction there (not that it would make much of a difference if any of that hell came true but)...
The Northwestern game is at the Big House where the games are typically drama free and nice. It's the games in Evanston that tend to get really, REALLY stupid; M00N, Devin Gardner's 7 dropped interceptions in 2013, having to get out of a 17-0 hole 3 years ago, the game in the 90's where we lost on the final play after being up 16-0 in the 4th quarter, A-train's fumble in 2000, the 12-6 Justin Fargas game in the driving rainstorm. So let's have no M00N Part II.
Splitting hairs about one game. But I have to. I'm doing everything I can to try and convince myself to get excited and I'm not.