Phil Steele's "Strength of Wins"
Georgia is in the #1 spot with wins over Clemson, UAB, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, Florida, Missouri and Tennessee and those teams have a total of 47 wins.
https://philsteele.com/2021/11/16/2021-cfb-strength-of-wins-pain-of-losses-thru-week-11/
Michigan St at 10 has some bad officiating to thank for being that high:
November 17th, 2021 at 10:28 AM ^
Poor Cincinnati
November 17th, 2021 at 10:33 AM ^
A loss to SMU would move them out of the way.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:07 AM ^
UM doesn't have to worry about Cincy. If they win out, to include a win in the B1G title game, they are a shoe in for one of the 4 spots.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:09 AM ^
Seeing Fickell curb-stomped by Georgia sounds appealing to me though.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:26 AM ^
https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401256108
November 18th, 2021 at 12:21 AM ^
The score of that game is a bit misleading. Georgia had two turnovers after long drives, one on the 1 yard line, one on the 18 yard line.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:51 AM ^
Why? So we can see him address Spartan Nation at his "welcome" press conference that much sooner? The OSU-MSU axis of evil didn't work out for us the last time they teamed up.
November 17th, 2021 at 12:24 PM ^
Fickell already turned MSU down two years ago. I suppose anything can happen, but if I'm MSU, I'm really hesitant to contact that guy again.
Supposedly Fickell's wife, and to some extent Fickell himself, turned down the job because they didn't like the culture on MSU's campus. Granted, the Nassar case was much more fresh in everyone's minds at that time, but if I'm Fickell I'm just biding my time at this point and waiting for a better job to come calling.
November 17th, 2021 at 12:42 PM ^
Pretty much, yeah. But there's something about Fickell that makes it hard to picture him in deep SEC West country or USC. He's midwest all the way. That's admittedly guesswork on my part.
November 17th, 2021 at 1:35 PM ^
I get the same vibe from him. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if he just bides his time at Cincinnati and waits for the OSU job to open up. That has to be his dream job.
Does Day want to move on? No idea. There haven't been any indications that he wants to in the near future, but he also didn't have any ties to the school before Meyer hired him, and he runs an offense that can be translated into the NFL (which is the only place he'd go), so who knows? But yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if Fickell just takes the Kirby Smart route. Patiently waits where he currently is for his dream job to open up, and then be ready to pounce when it does.
November 17th, 2021 at 2:20 PM ^
I can see Fickell taking the VTech job or PennSt job if Franklin leaves.
November 17th, 2021 at 1:04 PM ^
His name checks out.
November 17th, 2021 at 2:51 PM ^
I would love for a G5 team to break in, but with only 4 spots available right now it's hard to justify including them. How many other teams would've gone undefeated vs their schedule? The only tough team they've played is an overrated Notre Dame
November 17th, 2021 at 10:30 AM ^
Western Michigan has really fallen apart. I thought they were a good team after beating Pitt.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:33 AM ^
Other than against Michigan, their losses were kind of odd.
November 17th, 2021 at 2:37 PM ^
It seems like every loss/result in the MAC is "kind of odd." Source: EMU fan
Fun fact: EMU became the 3rd team with multiple 1-point wins last night. The other two teams are also in the MAC. #MACtion
November 17th, 2021 at 2:22 PM ^
They forgot how to row the boat.
November 17th, 2021 at 2:28 PM ^
MAC teams are not known for depth. I don't know about their injuries but I would guess either an above average (fluky) turnovers or one or two key injuries. 4-0 turnovers against Ball State. CB and S injuries of late. And at 92nd in FEI they are not playing well.
November 17th, 2021 at 10:32 AM ^
MSU is a regional academic and athletic institution with a student body and colony of local supporters that find worth in futile competitions with its superior and elite "big brother" UM.
Their obsession and engrossment with all things UM, instead of self-focus, is why they shall remain a middling institution with zero national appeal. No amount of victories on the basketball courts or football field will ever put them in the same stratum as UM.
MSU lacks pedigree, tradition, national appeal, and will forever be little brother.
They know this deep down, they feel this constant, overwhelming inferiority, and that is why their trolls choose to exist on this board - an attempt to alleviate that perpetual gnawing psychological reality that is their inadequacy with temporary, yet fleeting moments of relevance.
They celebrate victories against us just as they prepare for us...like it's a Super Bowl.
We nod at victories over them, as if expected, and prep to play our true and unfortunately dominating rival - OSU.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:11 AM ^
maybe, but Michigan is 4-10 against Staee in the last 14 years and that's irritating. They also have three B1G titles since 2010. Michigan has zero.
As much as I love the "pedigree, tradition, national appeal" thing, it seem like a weak thing to hang your hat on when your football program is being outperformed by your little brother for almost 20 years.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:19 AM ^
I completely agree with Bo and disagree with your take, drjaws.
The Unversity of Michigan is an elite, world-class academic institution. Students from all over the world clamor to gain admittance, as evidenced by the 20% admission rate and 49% of the students being from out of state.
MSU has a 75-80% admission rate and about the same percentage of students being from the State of Michigan.
"Little Brother" has nothing to do with wins and losses. It's a feeling of inferiority that pervades the entire school...because the vast majority of MSU's students and alums grew up in the State of Michigan and ended up attending MSU because they couldn't get in to U of M. Pointing this out isn't being insulting; it's just the facts.
And somehow the performance of the football teams upsets that equation?
Seriously?
November 17th, 2021 at 1:22 PM ^
admit it or not a lot of the 49% is so they can make more money.
people wonder why there are so many people in this state that like msu and HATE M, the post above is a good reason why.
arrogance
my daughter went to M and graduated with a 3.8 so she did well and I can say without question she is now an arrogant young person who thinks she is owed a living.
quite sad it turned out this way, when i pushed her to M I thought it would bring us closer.
the opposite is true.
M and their university is arrogant, I am still a fan of the sports programs but the brainwashing being done on campus is sickening.
November 17th, 2021 at 1:40 PM ^
"The brainwashing being done on campus is sickening."
Translated...
"I don't like that my daughter was exposed to anything that conflicts with my narrow-minded views."
I had this exact conversation with a relatively prominent Republican local Michigan elected official. He was complaining about his kids being "brainwashed" at Michigan. Now that I'm older and kind of don't give a fuck anymore, I responded with, "Or maybe it's because you don't like that they might have been exposed to a more diverse set of opinions and views...and that they might not align with yours?"
To his credit, he acknowledged that what I said was accurate.
November 17th, 2021 at 2:21 PM ^
This is a sports blog not a parenting support group.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:25 AM ^
Why do people always cite such random numbers when they put together these stats? Why did you select 14? Why not 20? Especially when you mention “almost 20 years.” The whole little brother thing came about because Mike Hart beat MSU 4 straight times. But you didn’t even include those wins. Michigan beat State 6 years in a row before bungling away the Rich Rod hire. No reason to be myopic.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:28 AM ^
Why “last 14 years”? We’re 2-2 in the last four years and 3-3 in the last six. That’s not as great as we’d like but paints a more accurate picture of where the series is now. What’s the relevance of bringing up the RR/Hoke years, if not also Carr?
November 17th, 2021 at 11:56 AM ^
It was a great unsolicited rant that really drove home the point that he is on MSU's mind and MSU is not on his mind though.
November 17th, 2021 at 12:25 PM ^
OP mentioned state’s flukish win against us. My response was simply that cyclical trends in football or basketball or any sport will never change the reality of UM as an elite academic institution that can stand on its own athletics and traditions and merits without needing validation by winning any one particular game, or any 15 year trend in sporting events.
November 17th, 2021 at 12:27 PM ^
I guess I'm abnormal but I don't understand the enjoyment so many people get from mocking and insulting their opponents. I guess it's partly because I'm old. I was always taught that a goal of sports was to learn sportsmanship/how to win and lose with grace. Obviously, there were many times that didn't happen but that was the ideal. Go ahead and neg away.
November 17th, 2021 at 1:13 PM ^
Agreed. It would be much more enjoyable both ways. A pat on the back and a good game sure beats the constant garbage MSU and UM fans spew to each other.
November 17th, 2021 at 1:24 PM ^
agree
I HATE when one of our players stands over someone and stare down at them like they just took the mans wallet, or wag their fingers at the opponents bench.
Show some class, go celebrate with your team and don't give the refs or opponents a reason to hate you.
November 17th, 2021 at 2:56 PM ^
Am I the only person that wanted Michigan to punch it in one more time at the end of the PSU game? You know every team we play would have driven that stake in our heart at that point, especially MSU and OSU. Every other team would do it for no other reason than, “we don’t know when this will happen again”. Sometimes you just have to remind people of just where your place is in this world verses their places in this world. Case in point the “Clock game”. The following season, Michigan dropped 50 on Sparty, because we could and to remind them of who they are.
November 17th, 2021 at 10:34 AM ^
Where's Alabama? I would think a team held on such a national altar of football diety surely must be loaded with wins over strong football programs.
Steele's formula must be wrong then. I know my ESPN & committee member betters couldn't make a mistake of this magnitude.
November 17th, 2021 at 10:59 AM ^
Alabama (28) in 18th place.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:08 AM ^
Thanks. So did Steele just miss them on the tweet? Because I've looked at the post now three times and I'll be damned if I see them listed alongside Oregon.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:16 AM ^
My mistake and I've edited my post. Steele gives credit only for the opponents' FBS wins, so a team like Misssissippi State has six wins, but only five of them were against FBS foes (one was a 35-34 win against Louisiana Tech in their opening game), so a win over Mississippi State gets Alabama only five points.
EDIT: Apologies to both Mississippi State and Louisiana Tech which in fact competes at the FBS level in Conference USA, so Mississippi State would get credit for that win.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:45 AM ^
LA Tech is an FBS team so that win should count, no?
November 17th, 2021 at 12:13 PM ^
Again, my mistake. You're right.
I still find it hard to think of some of those schools in Conference-USA as FBS schools because they don't have a long history of competing at the FBS level, Louisiana Tech has, in, fact, been an FBS school in football only since 2013. Old Dominion joined the FBS in 2014. Currently undefeated UTSA didn't even have a football team before 2011.
November 17th, 2021 at 2:52 PM ^
I know it's not the point here, but LA Tech has been competing in DIV1 (FBS) in football since the late 70's
November 17th, 2021 at 7:11 PM ^
You're right! My mistake again. Louisiana Tech also played in 13 FBS bowl games since beating Louisville 24-14 in 1977 in the Independence Bowl and they've got an 8-4-1 record in bowl games. I never should've forgotten that Hall of Famers Terry Bradshaw, Fred Dean and Willie Roaf played for Louisiana Tech.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:25 AM ^
Yeah, those two teams with only 1 win on the season really killed them. But I also think beating Ole Miss who has 7 wins should count more than say, us beating NIU who has 6 wins. Unless people think those are equivalent teams. Thats part of the fun with all of these stats though, they don't really matter and no one can agree on which ones are the most important.
November 17th, 2021 at 10:52 AM ^
Giving Georgia "Strength of Win" credit for wins over Clemson, UAB, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, Florida, Missouri and Tennessee.
Do we get extra credit for beating Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Indiana, and Northwestern?
November 17th, 2021 at 11:31 AM ^
Here's what I missed before I first commented about Alabama apparently missing from the top ten, and what some others also might've missed. Teams get credit only for the number of wins over FBS foes that the teams they've beaten have to their credit.
For example, Michigan gets no credit/points for Northern Illinois' 41-14 win over Maine, or Western Michigan's 28-0 win over Illinois State, or Indiana's 56-14 win over Idaho, or Northwestern's 24-6 win over Indiana State, or Rutgers' 61-14 win over Temple, or Penn State's 38-17 win over Villanova.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:52 AM ^
Rutgers' 61-14 win over Temple
Man, I knew Temple was bad this year but I didn't realize they got relegated to FCS!
(I think you meant their win over Delaware.)
November 17th, 2021 at 10:55 AM ^
I appreciate the scientific nature of this analysis
November 17th, 2021 at 11:04 AM ^
This is only strength of wins. If you click on the link, there is also pain of losses and then a combination of the two. I'm not sure how much thought he's actually put into this because his overall has UTSA at 4, based solely on the fact that they are undefeated. Now, if he had done wins - losses instead of percentage, it might look a little better, but still weighted too much toward SOS instead of performance against the schedule:
- Georgia (47)
- Notre Dame (41)
- Michigan (35)
- OSU (32)
- OSU (NTOSU, 30)
- Cincinnati (28)
- UTSA(28)
- Wisconsin (28)
- Oregon (28)
- MSU (27)
- Wake Forest (27)
- Alabama (25)
- SDSU (25)
- Ole Miss (25)
- BYU (24)
- App St (24)
- Baylor (24)
- Louisiana (23)
- Iowa (23)
- Oklahoma (22)
- BSU (22)
November 17th, 2021 at 4:15 PM ^
Pain of losses is arguably more interesting and really puts into perspective that Michigan and ohio state lost to pretty good teams, while Oregon's loss was pretty miserable (1 loss, 7 foe losses - all coming from 2-7 Stanford), and msu's loss was still not great (Purdue is 6-4).
Oregon is easily the 1-loss team with the "most painful" loss in that respect. Argument can be made either way for Oregon vs osu being ahead in the CFP rankings.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:05 AM ^
Interesting statistic. I'm not sure how much value it holds on its own. If you could somehow use this model and then factor in the SOS of all of the teams you beat and get that model to spit out a number, that would be far more useful. If you are the only decent team in a horrible conference, ie Cincy, then this model kills you. If you are a great team in a conference of other great teams that are constantly beating the crap out of each other, this model hurts you as well. 18 of our 36 "wins" comes from 3 teams. Western, NIU, and Wisconsin. Wisconsin suddenly getting their season together really helped us. Being part of a [edit: well balanced conference] and beating decent MAC schools seems like the perfect recipe to rank high on this particular list.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:07 AM ^
Notre Dame appears to have a great "College Basketball" schedule- as in they're gaming RPI. Have no elite teams on their schedule (I'm still kinda annoyed the Wisconsin game went the way it did) unless you're reaaaaaally pushing for Cincy- but they also have no deadweight SOS teams that significantly drag down their "RPI". It feels like the win @PSU should weigh more than the win @ VT, but in the grand scheme of things, they're about even on this metric.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:19 AM ^
Big Ten teams. Pretty clear who the upper crust are, and woof - NW, NU, and IU. Yikes.
Rank. Team - wins - Foe wins
3. Michigan - 9 - 36
5. Wisconsin - 7 - 34
6. ohio state - 9 - 33
10. michigan state - 9 - 31
12. Iowa - 8 - 30
23. Purdue - 6 - 27
34. Penn State - 6 - 21
41. Minnesota - 6 - 20
52. Illinois - 4 - 17
80. Maryland - 5 - 12
85. Rutgers - 5 - 11
97. Northwestern - 3 - 7
110. Nebraska - 3 - 5
110. Indiana - 2 - 5