OT: Ford Mustang Mach-E Is Stealing a Big Chunk of EV Buyers from Tesla
"Investment banking company Morgan Stanley reports that Tesla lost 12 percent of the battery-electric vehicle sales market in February compared to the same stretch last year. That's a big enough drop on its own, but according to the firm, the hit is almost entirely credited to sales of Ford's Mustang Mach-E.
In a report published on March 2, Morgan Stanley explained that "BEV sales outgrew the total market by nearly 40 percent" during the period. In essence, EVs are getting more popular, but Tesla isn't the only one reaping the benefits this time around. The report continued to say that the Mach-E "accounted for nearly 100 percent of the loss," meaning Ford's divisive and electric pony car, erm, crossover is proving quite popular.
Although the overall car industry was down an identical 5.4 percent in February 2021, electric cars were up 34 percent, which makes the amount the Mach-E has sliced into Tesla's share even more impressive. Taking 12 percent of what had been an 81 percent market chokehold is a lot, especially when the Mach-E has contended with outrageous dealer mark-ups. Despite that, Ford has reported customers are going for all-wheel drive and increased range, investing in the car's highest specs and completely selling-out the limited First Edition model."
Source: The Drive, Author: Hazel Southwell, 3/3/21
With other automakers bringing EV models to market, in scale, shortly will this endanger Tesla's volumes that are critical to their profitability?
Also, the lucrative regulatory credits that Tesla sells which has padded their financials for years would these be in danger if automakers have their own fleets of electric vehicles allowing them to scale back or eliminate credit purchases from Tesla?
there is a sliver of the market that will buy it because its the 'hip thing'... that's not enough to survive (that being said, there is a Swatch store in New York New York, Vegas)
lol. Tesla has always been for suckers. Elon Musk is for suckers.
Very bad take. Perhaps, Hazel is short Tesla? Market is growing faster than Tesla's sales.
When you have an 81% share in an emerging market, the chances are pretty good it will decline as the market matures. The real question for Tesla is will their unit volume keep growing.
The Mach-E is an abomination.
So is this post
I'm from a GM family so I've been waiting on the Bolt EUV. From what I've seen, not exactly what I thought they'd roll out, but an EV with 250 miles of range for under $35k (not accounting for GM family discount) is pretty attractive. My brother in law got a Model Y and while it's cool, I just can't rationalize that expense when I'm not looking for a super EV or anything crazy.
If congress passes legislation to expand the EV tax credits that GM and Tesla already hit, that's where things will get interesting because the price advantage of a Bolt is eroded and the product is heavily dependent on that "deal" versus other cars with more bells and whistles.
Sadly, that segment is very dependent upon lease pricing. You can get into an ev for $169 a month with a modest down payment. You bump it to $219, you lost a ton of folks. As the eSUV/EUVs start to become more affordable and reach 300mpc, you will see growth. First brand to reach 500-600mpc will get heads turning. As eVTOLs start to mature in the airline segments, the battery charge capacities will grow. Within 10 years, 500-600 in a mass market automobile may just be possible.
O I plan on leasing one, not buying. The technology is accelerating so quickly that a 3 year old EV will be obsolete as every manufacturer rolls out new stuff every 1.5 to 2 years.
Had I needed the 2nd vehicle already, I would have grabbed a 2020 Bolt. The dealership near me was advertising $180/month with $0 down if you had the GM discount and lease loyalty. Covid and WFH made it unnecessary so now I'm just waiting to see what happens come June.
Yeah the jumps in battery technology likely to come scream lease over buy
and where will all of those off lease obsolete cars end up?
Why do you think 500 mile range will be a game changer? How many people drive that far in a day? I think of it a lot like a cell phone. I need it to get me through the day - anything less is unacceptable - but does it help me if it lasts 4 days? Not really because I'm going to charge it every night anyway. 300 miles seems like enough for almost everyone. Frankly, if you do see 500 mile ranges it'll translate to acceleration which will sell more than the range, imo.
Because people are not rational. Very few people need even 200 miles of range for their current commutes. But range anxiety isn't about what you actually need 99% of the time; it's about what you're afraid you'll need just once and won't have, but that you do have today and therefore aren't willing to give up.
In the process of changing jobs, but being able to (potentially) supplement either my wife's or my commute with an electric vehicle is what I'm going for. We want to drive down to Florida (why we would I do not know)? Take the ICE and go. We want to visit my parents about 40 minutes away? Take the EV. Whichever commute is longer takes the EV and the shorter takes the ICE.
Range anxiety is something people have to grapple with, but I think too many think "if I have an EV, how will I road trip out to the Grand Canyon?"
Were you ever going to road trip out there in the first place? Maybe? Probably not? Ok well you can still have an ICE (assuming your married and have 2 cars anyways). And if not, you can still make that drive. What's a multiple day, 30 hour drive compared with a multiple day, 33 hour drive really? The charging network is continually expanding and the charging time isn't crazy (on most models with the upgraded fast charge). People like to think of the extremes and gloss over the other 51 weeks of the year when you're not road tripping out through Kansas.
That's not irrational. People buy vehicles for their anticipated maximum need. I figure I'll need to drag something big home from Lowe's every so often, and drive in bad snow conditions occasionally, so I have an SUV. And because I know I'll want to drive to places like Chicago or Atlanta, I don't have an electric. 95% of the time I don't need the SUV and a small more efficient car would be way more practical. But I don't want to have to worry about the other 5%. Neither does anyone else, which is why nobody buys cars for their average need or their commute only.
Plenty of couples with two cars can and do.
Great. Those are couples. I'm a single guy and I'm not buying a minivan and a compact. Yes, couples do that, because the maximum anticipated need for one car is filled by the compact and the maximum anticipated need for the other car is filled by the minivan. The compact still isn't bought for average need only.
The extended range is for those who want to drive longer distances (road trips!). While the EV stations are still in the infant stage, there are more coming, the ability (and assurances) that your EV will not "strand you" is the point in extending the battery life.
Battery life does not equal vehicle acceleration. Battery life is tied to the overall function of the vehicle.
As others have noted, driving from the east coast to the west coast currently would be an adventure as you would be restricted to follow the charging stations. But with the increase in battery life would allow more freedom to travel wherever you wanted to.
I would suspect that some people would plug their cars in everyday (though not needed) just a habit, there would be other that would know that they could do it once a week, particularly with the extended battery life.....
I'll never be able to afford a Tesla or probably any other new e-car so my main concern is that any financial issues Tesla encounters doesn't hamper SpaceX.
You in the market for a rocket instead of a Model 3?
I'm assuming he's like me and believes that Musk has pushed the space industry further in the last 10 years than in the 30 previous.
I don't care if Tesla dies in a fire, I just don't want it to drag on SpaceX if it does.
If Musk can get us back in space to stay, like should have happened 40 years ago, then they can put a statue of him in New York Harbor for all I care.
No worries... SpaceX and Tesla are completely separate business entities, and SpaceX is wildly successful in its own right - far more successful than Tesla, despite the valuations. SpaceX also has Starlink, which is poised to be an even larger success than its parent. And Starship will reap additional billions for SpaceX when it achieves operational status within the next 2-3 years.
I hope that Musk focuses his attention, energy, and money on SpaceX and Tesla and forgets about his other distractions like that silly Hyperloop stuff.
I've had my issues with Tesla; or rather I've had my issues with the Tesla Prophets and fanboys (Yes, yes, I know, *your* model's fit and finish doesn't suck...). I mean, they are cool cars. If I could buy one I would. But we need to be realistic about what they are.
But I really love Space X. They have been game changing.
There is a part of me that thinks it humorous that it's easier to build a rocket than a mass market car.
There is a part of me that thinks it humorous that it's easier to build a rocket than a mass market car
Except for the exploding unscheduled rapid disassembly part:
That's a feature.
I'm more along the lines of a rocket has a crap ton of specialized tech... but it also has a crap ton of support people around it. Space X has shown to be really good at that, despite the mishaps. The Merlin and Raptor engines are really impressive IMHO.
But that's a world apart from making thousands of cars a year, with great fit and finish, and the ability to hold up to someone whose idea of maintenance is to take it through a car wash.
That Tesla is dropping some market share as Ford, GM, et all ramp up EV production should come as a surprise to precisely zero people. They have an expensive entry cost and cannot sell cars in some states (incl Michigan) because of bullshit laws requiring that factory-sponsored dealerships are the only way to legally sell cars.
I mean, even with a level playing field, an ~$75K Tesla is not going to outsell a ~$45 Mustang. Let alone a ~$27K 'run of the mill' EV...
In my opinion where Tesla really needs to worry is when Toyota decides to go electric in a big way. People who are Tesla owners now but taking solace in their 100K mile warranty may well jump ship at an electric built the Toyota Way.
Interestingly Toyota is not going all in on EVs. They are very big on hydrogen. I think it makes a great deal of sense for long haul trucks (if the price of green hydrogen continues to drop). Not as convinced for the passenger vehicle segment
https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/a35026252/toyota-hydrogen/
Yeah, Toyota's invested heavily in hydrogen, and lagged in EV. Kind of surprising after the success they had with hybrid.
It does seem like they are starting to focus more on EV, however. Will be interesting to see.
Gimme a rivian.
I wish I still had my 66 Mustang.......
Maybe some day I can get another one ?
Agreed! I had a 1965 Mustang. Great car, so much fun to drive.
These little cars are cute - but I need a truck for both work and play. The options are slim (and mostly ugly) right now.
Both Ford and GM are coming out with their respective EV trucks shortly. The F150 is coming out next year....
Keep your eyes open for the Rivian R1T. I don't know if it's exactly the specs you need, but it's attractive, it has power, and it's electric.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5EkpVR2Ark&ab_channel=TeslaDaily
VERY relevant (and accurate) video from today on this exact 'observation'. Mach-E isn't stealing any of Tesla's "market share". The whole EV pie is growing - and the more the merrier!
That video is accurate in the math but inaccurate in the sense that they are saying it's fine for Tesla to not grow as quickly as everyone else. The Tesla stock is getting huge multiples (Price/Earnings and Price/Sales) based on that huge growth rate. It's fine to say it was never sustainable because denominators and numerators, but then the stock has to come back down to earth. Here are some comparisons:
Stock - P/E - P/sales
TSLA - 1000x - 200x
GM - 12x - 0.6x
F - NA (losing money) - 0.4x
This isn't meant to compare the stocks head to head but to show that the market thinks a $1 from TSLA is work hundreds of times more than $1 from GM or F. That's crazy. And, that's all after a 30% drop in TSLA stock price. i don't think I've ever seen a company that is selling their product (i.e. not a pharmaceutical trading on pre-sales expectation) have a price to sales ratio that high.
Just for grins here are other prominent price to sales numbers:
AAPL: 8x
Google: 7.5x
AMZN: 4x
GME: 1.5x
One response to Ford- TOYOTA
I've had a Tesla M3P since last May, and it's great. I don't expect these Mustangs to compete well against them; the Tesla is faster, it has much more range, and it's comparable in price. I'm not sure why I'd choose one over a Tesla, or if I want cheaper, a Bolt that has more range.
Also: cannibalizing market share is not the same as cannibalizing buyers. It's possible Ford is taking market share from Tesla, without converting a single Tesla buyer into a Ford buyer, because they are expanding the overall size of the market for EVs. One reason for that would be the fact that Teslas are so hard to buy in Michigan.
Ease of service, better fit and finish?
Don't get me wrong; I respect what Tesla has done; but it hasn't been without issues. Were I making a purchase the extra mileage wouldn't be all that much of a difference to me because it's rare I drive like that; and knowing I could easily go to my Ford dealer for service vs. some of the nightmares I've seen some Tesla owners go through would be a difference maker for me.
We'll see how it goes. Tesla has gotten better at manufacturing and their tech side is excellent.
It sure seems like they can't build Mach-E's fast enough to satisfy all the demand, so it's a little odd to say they won't be able to compete against Teslas.
Nothing says America quite like a mustang(made in Mexico, battery suv).
Last spring, I knew the lease on my electric Kia would be up in November, We have a 240 volt line in the garage and wanted to stay electric. We liked the electric Mustang, and put down $500 refundable and ordered a Mustang. They were talking early Fall deliveries.
By September, it became apparent that Ford was having delays, and would not be getting us the new car close to when we turned in the leased car, so we asked for and received a refund of our $500. However, we continued to get emails as if we still had the car on order. Not sure if cars have showed up by now, March, but I half expected them to tell me to come in and look. If they are as hot a commodity as we are reading, the dealer should have no trouble moving the car we ordered.
Are the Mustangs out?
We got a Tesla Model Y and are very happy. Had minor hardware issues, Tesla has a van that comes to us, took care of everything. The Tesla is to our 2017 BMW what a smartphone is to a flip phone. I used "summon" in a parking lot, with my dog in the front seat and stunned some guys eating in their pickups.
I used "summon" in a parking lot, with my dog in the front seat and stunned some guys eating in their pickups.
That's fantastic.
Once using an EV is much easier due to expanded charging networks, Ford & GM will be much better positioned to create inexpensive EVs. Tesla makes pretty much only makes premium cars.
Tesla gets by right now because people are willing to pay a premium to get a "cool" EV car. When ALL cars are EV (coming soon) they will stop being "cool" and people will start wanting inexpensive cars. I don't know that Tesla will ever be in position to service that market.
In for the pump and dump thread. Buy Ford and dump Tesla? Seems counterintuitive to pump Ford!?!
I have an annual discussion with a buddy who's an expert in big-picture automotive research.
For years, he dismissed my interest in EV as "California fantasy" - and he had a point. However, his (Very educated) opinion has really changed the last couple of years, driven by:
- Huge change in the way US generates electricity. EV's made no sense in places where coal generated most electricity. Now natural gas dominates the grid and renewables' share is increasing - electricity is much greener, and EV's are clearly a greener alternative to ICE, not just in Cali.
- Tesla finally pumping out enough cars to count for something
- More importantly, the other auto co's finally making real commitment to EV. While overall market share is still tiny, it seems certain to grow dramatically, relatively soon.
- Growth in charging infrastructure, improvements in battery technology and charging speed.
- Direct communication from industry executives, who are now all-in on EV.
Hope I'm accurately conveying his opinions. He knows his stuff.
TSLA's current market valuation has nothing to do with its sales volumes or EPS/profitability. Absolutely nothing. It is a pure "story stock" headed by someone elevated to social icon.
Tesla is probably the most overvalued stock in existence.