Need 2 or 3 RBs to win National Championship?

Submitted by Ezeh-E on January 11th, 2023 at 9:45 AM

In the discussions of UGA destroying TCU, I haven't seen as much mentioned about their having 3 healthy good RBs. Made me think of last year when they also had 3 healthy good RBs and our 1997 season when we had 3 healthy good RBs.

It seems like you can do it with 2 like we might have this year, but the chance of one getting hurt increases. 

Thinking of counterpoints, Clemson did it with only Wayne Gallman in 2016, though Deshaun Watson was the leading rusher against Bama in the championship.

BlueKoj

January 11th, 2023 at 9:59 AM ^

Even 1 fully healthy DE or BC would have gotten us there. Most other days, DE in a cast is still enough to beat TCU. On other days, having neither of them, UM could still win games vs TCU. Maybe if they don't have DE at all they run JJ sooner and more and he shreds them with arm & Legs and the rest of the backfield is enough.

NeverPunt

January 11th, 2023 at 9:54 AM ^

More is better. That said, your last point is probably more important. We need a QB that can run to fully weaponize, and we have to use him.  Look at the PSU game this year - perhaps the only game we played all season with the JJ run on from start to finish. He pulls the ball a few times and we're off and running for 400+ yards.

If you want to be a mauling run-first team, you can do it, until someone sells out to stop you. If they sell out like idiots, you get the Ohio State game. If they sell out and still keep 1 high safety, you need to move your QB to cancel the extra man in the box. When you delete him, you have the "please not in the face" offense. Get some elite WR play, and you're walking into the championship game.

Georgia was good but their QB rushed for two TDS and they hit some shots downfield. That's your answer to success - have great RBs, yes, but get the most out of them by making their job's easier.

RXwolverine

January 11th, 2023 at 9:57 AM ^

It’s all about the QB

bennet, tua, Watson, Lawrence, burrow, young

the common denominator between all these teams was elite QB play. Harbaugh does not seem to realize how important it is to be able to move the ball relying only on your QBs arm. A great rb is supportive but it should never be the focus of an offense if your trying to win a national championship. I really hope he figures that out this fall otherwise it’s gonna be the same thing again. Beat crap teams by 100 by running up the middle 50 times and then lose to a good team after falling behind early and not able to catch up because we don’t practice a 2 minute drill enough during the regular season.

drjaws

January 11th, 2023 at 10:05 AM ^

Michigan had more yards that game and JJ threw for 343 yards. 

the problem with that game wasn't "not being able to catch up" or "we don't pass enough during the year so we don't know how" or "2 minute drill" or anything like that.

it was bad coaching/playcalling in the 1st half, two terrible throws by JJ, and to be honest, our defense didn't do nearly enough to help. you can't come back from being down if the defense can't get stops.

goblue2121

January 11th, 2023 at 10:57 AM ^

These people have thier narratives already set in stone and will twist evidence to reinforce thier claims. It's nothing new. 2 pick 6's were backbreaking and probably the difference in a close game, but they still shout "Throw it Moar!" There were plays made by the offense and defense in this game. Both sides also made thier share of mistakes. Win as a team and lose as a team. 

Dunder

January 11th, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^

Yep, defense caved in the most critical moments. Get a stop after that first Bell TD and the entire energy of the game changes.  Get a stop the next time you cut it to one score. Hell, get a stop on 2nd and long deep in their end on the last possession and get the ball back with 3 minutes to play. Just a brutal performance from the D (even in a game where they should have gotten away with it had the offense not committed more self inflicted wounds than the rest of the season combined).

Perkis-Size Me

January 11th, 2023 at 9:59 AM ^

You need a lot of things, truthfully. Alabama has had several teams with very good to elite RBs that did not win titles. Elite QB play, elite skill talent, elite game preparation, and depth are what immediately come to mind for me. Georgia has all of those things in spades. Mostly, though, it comes back to the QB. 

Bennett was an elite QB for what Georgia wanted out of its QB. Whether he has an NFL future or not is irrelevant when it comes to that fact. Georgia's backups are guys who would start just about anywhere else in the country, and after Monday night its glaringly obvious that Smart game-planned that game to perfection. Yes, TCU was probably in over its head to begin with from a talent and depth perspective, but they're still a P5 team with some NFL talent on the roster. They had absolutely no answers for anything Georgia did or prevented them from doing. You could've asked an FCS team to go out there that night and they would've been able to put up at least seven points, too. That was damn near flawless planning and execution. How do you beat that when Georgia has all those other factors in its favor?

Don't think you need an elite defense anymore. It helps your case to have one as Georgia has made painfully evident, but you all you really need is one that's just good enough. OSU's defense isn't elite, Michigan's isn't elite, but they're both probably good enough on their best days to be able to win you a championship. Offense wins championships these days. At least in college.

I feel like Clemson has been the exception here as far as only needing 1-2 things. They had elite, transcendent QB play that masked or just flat out negated a lot of issues their team otherwise had. Without Deshaun Watson, that Clemson team does not beat Alabama. Probably the same can be said for the year they won it with Trevor Lawrence. 

Michigan has enough skill talent and QB play to get back to the CFP next year. Will they be utilized in a way that allows them to take that next step, get to the title game and win it? I have my doubts but we'll see. 

Catchafire

January 11th, 2023 at 10:19 AM ^

Depth is extremely an issue.  Most teams hobbled into the post season.  Just look at our team: our TEs banged up as well as WRs and RBs.  When you miss key players, it's not as simple as plug and play.  Maybe for a school like Georgia and OSU that are loaded with talent..

michengin87

January 11th, 2023 at 10:20 AM ^

We win the national championship with a healthy Blake Corum this year.  He wins the Heisman, and we win the National Championship.

For reference, look at Saban's championships along with regularly outstanding defenses:

  • 2009:  Heisman Trophy winning Mark Ingram.  D #2
  • 2011:  Heisman Trophy finalist Trent Richardson.  D #1
  • 2012:  Eddie Lacy MVP of Championship Game.  D #1
  • 2015:  Heisman Trophy winning Derrick Henry.  D #2
  • 2017:  Jalen Hurts both running and passing and then replaced by Tua after injury.  D #1
  • 2020:  Covid year but Heisman Trophy winning Devonta Smith was the difference.  D #13

2020 was 2020.  All other years, top 2 D plus a Heisman level RB / QB was the recipe for Bama.

I think it's generally quality over quantity but without a doubt the odds of getting hurt increase with number of hits.  So, I think we need those backups to take reps and make sure that our top 3 of Blake, Donovan and JJ are healthy for the big games down the stretch.

Perkis-Size Me

January 11th, 2023 at 10:37 AM ^

I have a hard time believing we beat Georgia this year, even if Blake is 100% healthy. I do think Michigan beats TCU and makes the title game, and if Michigan plays a clean game, I do think Michigan keeps up in a one score game at least into halftime. 

But Georgia's level of elite depth across the board, and what I see as Smart's maniacal level of preparation for games like these, I'm not sure that I could've seen it happening unless Georgia makes several uncharacteristic mistakes. Seems like the kind of game where Georgia would start to pull away at some point in the fourth quarter. Like a 42-31 kind of game. 

WindyCityBlue

January 11th, 2023 at 11:05 AM ^

I honestly think we would have given Georgia a game this year.  I understand our performance against TCU would suggest otherwise, but if we utilized our second half game plan on offense for the entire game, shore up the defense a little, and only have 1 pick six, I think we would have beaten TCU soundly (+20 points).

michengin87

January 11th, 2023 at 12:13 PM ^

I think a healthy Blake Corum completely changes the offense for Michigan such that they can consistently push the ball down the field and not allow the opposing defense to focus on any one area.  As a result, this will also tilt time of possession in our favor.

At the same time, when we get to the CFP, JJ has to be properly used to take advantage of his legs the whole game.  We obviously want to limit that action during the season to minimize injury, but once we get to OSU and beyond, everything is on the table every down.

On the D, I would agree that you don't need a lock down defense to win, but you need one that can force the other team off the field or at least force FGs roughly half the time which is where UM was this year.

Realistically, it's tough to beat the Georgia's and Alabama's that consistently out recruit us by several 5 stars per year, but I think we were at least even money with the right game plan if we had met UGA in the finals this year.

Dunder

January 11th, 2023 at 10:39 AM ^

Star quality depth at all/most positions would seem to be the Georgia recipe less so than any one position. 

In broad strokes, Michigan had its most butt performance from the defense in two seasons when they could least afford it. Most of Michigan's defense would be second string (or worse) at Georgia and if the starting DL no showed like they did, ho hum, Kirby just yawns and rolls out his 5 star sophomore and freshman back ups. 

MRunner73

January 11th, 2023 at 12:01 PM ^

CJ Stokes was supposed to be that viable #3 RB but he dropped off the rotation and as Mullings filled that spot starting with the OH State game at the end of the regular season.

Don't know how or why Stokes fell out of the rotation but the incoming Cole Cabana could be that #3 guy, time will tell.

MRunner73

January 11th, 2023 at 11:57 AM ^

Michigan is all set with RBs. In addition to Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, Cole Cabana has joined the ranks. He'll only be a freshman but has great potential. With Mike Hart as his position coach, Cole should do well.

michengin87

January 11th, 2023 at 12:22 PM ^

Good point.  Although I think Cole will be used very sparingly this year as running backs need to build up some muscle mass to take the weekly pounding.  However, if he, Stokes and even Kalel can remove 10-15 carries / game from Blake and Donovan through the middle of the season, then we should be in good shape for the late season push.

dragonchild

January 11th, 2023 at 12:47 PM ^

If you just need healthy ones, we've done OK with effin' walk-ons (Tru Wilson).

What you need to win the natty are playmakers, at as many positions as possible.  You don't need them everywhere, but you do need enough to force the other team out of their base.  I think you need at least 3-4 these days, though as we've seen, injuries can cut that down in a hurry.  They don't need to be RB, per se.

BuddhaBlue

January 11th, 2023 at 1:29 PM ^

You need to be able to play different styles of game. If a team is good enough or schemes enough to take what you do away from you, you need to be able to switch it up. You also need to have coaching not stubborn or afraid to switch it up.

Michigan showed that it has the talent and wherewithal to switch it up, when Cade threw for huge numbers against MSU, JJ beat OSU in the air and we went full Big XII in the semifinal. But it seems like it's not a real part of the offense. 

tybert

January 11th, 2023 at 1:38 PM ^

I think 3 is the right number as some guy is always getting nicked up some game and might miss a few weeks. I thought we were pretty solid with Corum, The Don, and CJ - recall the PSU game.

Really, Corum was the difference in not being able to beat TCU. We score from the 1 with him and also likely push across the 1st drive for a TD. Love The Don but he seemed a bit limited with his receiving game. Corum was a solid receiver in his first 2 years, but we didn't need him for that role this year. 

The key is RB#3 is a younger guy who will stay if he knows he will have chance to step up to 2 or 1 later. 

treetown

January 11th, 2023 at 2:11 PM ^

To win it all, teams need to be able to run the ball, especially in close to the goal line and for 4th down, throw the ball especially punishing throws when a defense crowds the line of scrimmage, a good defense and of course a little luck. (e.g. injuries, opponents missing game winning FGs)

For Michigan with its run heavy attack having at least 2 backs is a must. Three is ideal. Can the Wolverines win it all with just a running offense? No, of course not, but with the line they have, and a solid QB play, the running attack will open up room for the receivers.

With Blake Corum coming back and assuming he heals up, next year will pose a lot of problems to opposing DCs. I hope the team prioritizes getting JJ McCarthy synched up with his receivers early on so play action burn the 8 man and run blitz calls the team will bound to see a lot of. We can't always depend on 75 and 85 yard break aways.

energyblue1

January 11th, 2023 at 2:13 PM ^

JMO, you need a really good 2 deep roster and even a 3rd at some positions.  We were a beat up team at the end of the season.  Corum, Morris out, Schoon and several oline had injuries.  

I also would like a bit more passing to take a few carries per game off the oline/rb's..  But that's jmo and would like to see some teams just buried fast and 2nd-3rd team in faster.. Esp 2nd half against the lesser non conf teams.  

AlbanyBlue

January 11th, 2023 at 7:22 PM ^

As others have alluded to, more is better -- 2 healthy star RBs and a running QB would do it.

But we're not going to get to the pinnacle by setting the first half on fire with poor preparation and gameplanning.