Michigan 34.0 Over Indiana; Other Point Spreads
Some point spreads of note for this weekend (home team in bold). That 34.0 is a big number, but it seems like a pretty easy cover. We're rolling and Indiana is worse than any Big Ten team we've played.
Michigan 34.0 over Indiana
Ohio State 19.0 over Purdue
Rutgers 5.5 over Michigan State
Penn State 42.5 over UMass
Maryland 14.0 over Illinois
Wisconsin 10.0 over Iowa
Washington 2.5 over Oregon
Notre Dame 2.5 over USC
UNC 3.5 over Miami
Oregon State 4.0 over UCLA
October 9th, 2023 at 11:24 AM ^
Rutgers 5.5 over Michigan State. Ya hate to see it... ya love to see it. #Cannon-in--the-D.
October 9th, 2023 at 3:17 PM ^
When it comes to Rutgers, I will always root for “and hilarity ensued.”
Does that mean rooting for “Rutgers barnstorms MSU and wins by 50”? Or maybe “Rutgers and MSU turn in a Michigan-Illinois game from the RichRod era”? Or even a “yakety-sax special from both teams”?
Don’t know. What I DO know is that I’m NOT rooting for a game where Rutgers comfortably and easily wins by a TD. If I can’t have good football, I want entertainment.
October 9th, 2023 at 9:11 PM ^
Take Rutgers
October 9th, 2023 at 11:25 AM ^
The rain is the big wildcard for the U-M game. Rain is projected to start late Wednesday night and continue til Sunday afternoon.
There is still time for the forecast to change. Also, even on a rainy day, there is often a 4 hour gap of no rain. So we could get lucky.
We'll still win comfortably even if it rains, but I wouldn't be too quick to bet on U-M to cover.
October 9th, 2023 at 12:03 PM ^
I'm not worried about the rain so long as there are no lightning bolts seen.
October 9th, 2023 at 12:10 PM ^
Not to mention the fact that it seems like Michigan plays on cruise control in these super easy games. I'm not a gambler, but I'd never take Michigan in a spread over about 25.
October 9th, 2023 at 12:38 PM ^
Didn't we just win by 40?
October 9th, 2023 at 1:15 PM ^
Its hard to count on your defense scoring 14 points/game.
Michigan's style has been to have low number of possessions/game and then put in backups in the end. I would be wary of big point spreads
October 11th, 2023 at 6:54 AM ^
Bet the first half. Much safer with Michigan
October 9th, 2023 at 2:55 PM ^
Yes, but I'd never bet on it. Play that game 10 more times and I bet the average differential is a lot closer to 25 than 40.
October 9th, 2023 at 4:23 PM ^
Yeah, i do agree here. This one is a good one to bet Indiana. That is a shit ton of points. Michigan may very well cover, but the odds are less than 50% IMO.
They will easily win, and by a lot, but not by that much IMO.
October 10th, 2023 at 6:49 PM ^
Also not a gambler, but I think that's true of any team favored by that much. Whether they cover it depends on too many factors beyond "how much better they are then the other team"
I do have a theory that in games where the O/U is super close to the point spread, the over is a good bet. This games a decent example with the O/U at 46, and the spread at 34. I figure if Michigan does win by 34, the over is probably hit, and if they don't, it's because the underdog scored on a wacky play or garbage time, and the over is still hit.
October 9th, 2023 at 8:49 PM ^
Rain adds chaos to ball handling and good footing, but given the size, skill and experience gap it seems reasonable to think UM’s ball security will be better than IN’s. UM’s offensive style is less affected by the rain and UM’s havoc rate should be even greater. Rain can be an equalizer but I can see it exacerbating IN’s issues.
October 9th, 2023 at 11:26 AM ^
Putting aside personal rooting interests, I'd assume that Notre Dame and Oregon victories are probably best as it relates to Michigan's possible competitors for a Playoff spot.
That being said, To Hell With Notre Dame!
And, that being said, an undefeated Michigan won't have to worry about any other team's record!
October 9th, 2023 at 11:31 AM ^
I think we want ND to lose - maybe even badly - to take the lustre off them being out-tuffed by OSU. USC is absolutely going to lose to one of the Pacific Northwest schools, likely both, and probably has another loss on their schedule somewhere else.
October 9th, 2023 at 11:52 AM ^
Looking at USC's schedule, 5 of their remaining 6 games are all possible losses with that defense they put out there. So blowing out ND then dropping 2-3 other games is the better outcome.
October 9th, 2023 at 1:38 PM ^
USC would be jealous of Rich Rod's defenses.
October 9th, 2023 at 2:50 PM ^
It annoys me how true this is.
October 9th, 2023 at 3:20 PM ^
I am assuming we get in the CFP via B1G championship, so greedily I'm hoping for a USC Pac-12 championship, so that we can have a UM v USC CFP semifinal, in the Rose Bowl, on Jan 1, as God and Keith Jackson intended.
October 9th, 2023 at 11:28 AM ^
The weather could play a role in Ann Arbor if it rains. If mostly dry, then Michigan will cover.
Others to cover: OSU, PSU, MD, Rutgers & WI.
Oregon/Washington cold go either way.
USC to defeat ND.
UNC to cover and OR State to cover.
October 9th, 2023 at 11:33 AM ^
Honestly, if the game was AT Indiana, I'd say lay down those points.
October 9th, 2023 at 11:40 AM ^
Zzzz... I love winning but these teams are pathetic. We've had this experience of just being lights out better than 99% of the competition. OSU had that for a couple decades.
October 9th, 2023 at 11:54 AM ^
Aren’t you excited? The Big 10 West title is on the line this Saturday!
😏
October 9th, 2023 at 11:57 AM ^
Ohio State 19.0 over Purdue
I saw what you did there. Very nice, yet subtle, touch.
October 9th, 2023 at 11:58 AM ^
Yeah, at this point I think you give the points. Michigan is rolling and Indiana is bad bad. Tuttle time starts in the third quarter.
October 9th, 2023 at 12:43 PM ^
If there isn't at least 1 Tuttle to Barner completion against their former team, I will be VERY upset.
October 9th, 2023 at 11:59 AM ^
Bet the psu game. I'm sure Frames has more than a late fake kneel down in his bag of tricks.
Fucking prick.
October 9th, 2023 at 12:36 PM ^
I think ND beats the other complete fraud team USC.
October 9th, 2023 at 12:36 PM ^
so wait, lemme get this straight.
Michigan: ECU, UNLV, BGSU = BAD
PSU: WVU, Delaware (FCS), UMass (FCS in spirit) = GOOD?
October 9th, 2023 at 12:41 PM ^
Eh, WVU is at least nominally a P5 opponent. I'd rather we'd replaced on of those 3 tomato cans with Boston College or Wake Forest or something mildly entertaining (but not a service academy).
October 9th, 2023 at 12:52 PM ^
East Carolina has been good before. This wasn't scheduled the week before the season
October 9th, 2023 at 1:00 PM ^
FWIW, ECU @ U-M was announced in October 2019 --- when ECU was in the midst of their 5th consecutive losing season.
U-M has had a recent trend of scheduling AAC and MWC games for their buy games. Not a terrible idea, they're typically better than the MAC. And some of those teams did have a recent history of being good prior to the game being scheduled (Air Force, Cincinnati, UCF, Fresno State on the slate for 2024).
But ECU falls more into the UNLV, Hawaii, Connecticut, SMU and New Mexico (2025 foe) realm.
https://ecupirates.com/news/2019/10/25/east-carolina-michigan-agree-to-2023-football-meeting.aspx
October 9th, 2023 at 5:00 PM ^
Bowling Green beat Georgia Tech convincingly and GT somehow beat Miami (yes, that Miami). However, BG is bad. You never know what will happen if a team isn't emotionally ready to play a game. Would Michigan have been better off playing mediocre (now 3-3) Georgia Tech?
October 9th, 2023 at 1:20 PM ^
UCLA plus +4 (and straight-up) at Oregon State. BIG bet.
I may come to regret this: but I'm really liking this Bruin team and am going to ride them for awhile. Chip Kelly still knows what he's doing, and this year he has a defense too.
Nationally, they're flying under-the-radar - feels a bit like the lines aren't catching up to them just yet.
October 9th, 2023 at 1:44 PM ^
FWIW, if anyone is degenerate enough to want to bet a game with a 42.5-point spread, Penn State has won 12 straight ATS (against the spread). Last loss was the 2022 Michigan game. I'm not sure it's meaningful, but at the same time, I can't recall the last time I've seen anyone w/ a 12-game winning streak ATS.
Massachusetts has shown to have a reasonably functional offense in 2023, however. They should easily get to 14-20 points, so take the 42.5 (if you're a degenerate).
October 9th, 2023 at 9:38 PM ^
UMass is going to die. They only scored 17 vs EMU.
PSU 42-3
October 9th, 2023 at 3:16 PM ^
I don't like the 34 number for Michigan. Rain, slower game pace expected by just beating Indiana with a ballpene hammer over the head for 60 minutes makes me think this is 31-0, or 34-3.
I definitely like the OSU over Purdue number, three TD difference is likely (think 42-20 or something like that). I will pound the Rutgers -5.5 and I like the Wisconsin over Iowa by 10 number. Rest of the slate I do not like in terms of numbers (except MAYBE the UNC -3.5 over Miami... that game last weekend is one of those that a team may quit from because of coaching incompetence-- one time where you want to watch the press conferences & quotes this week).
October 9th, 2023 at 7:21 PM ^
I'll take Michigan -34 and Rutgers -5.5. Maryland -14 also seems pretty solid. Oregon +2.5 is decent. UNC all day every day -3.5 against Miami.
Ohio St -19 against Purdue is probably good but I refuse to bet that one.