It Must Be Asked: Pac-12 Championship Game...where do you stand?

Submitted by MaizeBlueA2 on November 27th, 2022 at 10:23 PM

The CFP seems pretty cut and dry if Georgia, Michigan, and TCU all take care of business. 

Let's assume they do, and they are your top 3 teams in the CFP. It should be noted, that all 3 are probably "in" regardless of the result of their game...but let's assume all 3 win so the seeding is clearer.

But Friday night, all eyes will be on the Pac-12 Championship Game where the storyline will be USC, "win and your in."  Lose, and the Buckeyes can back their way into a #4 seed.

 

...SO, with this scenario in mind. #1, Georgia. #2, Michigan. #3, TCU. #4, USC or OSU...who do you WANT (not who do you think, who do you WANT) to win the Pac-12 Championship Game?

  1. USC, "because I just like the Trojans."
  2. USC, "because I don't like Utah."
  3. USC, "because FUCK THE BUCKEYES!"
  4. Utah, "because Kyle Whittingham is a great coach and I like Utah."
  5. Utah, "because I hate USC."
  6. Utah, "because all season it was about the SEC getting 2-3 teams in and now it is the Big Ten that gets two teams in the CFP, haha #ItJustMeansMore...oh, but still FUCK OSU!"

michgoblue

November 27th, 2022 at 10:29 PM ^

3.  I can’t stand the Buckeyes. It’s time for their program to go through some bumps. A decent segment of their fan base is souring in Day because of his two straight bad losses to us. What better way to quiet that section of the fan base than making the CFP and possible even a national championship game?  Some destabilization of their program, and an entire offseason of discontent, can only help us in terms of recruiting battles, etc.

drewz05

November 27th, 2022 at 10:30 PM ^

In your scenario, #3.

However in reality, I prefer to face TCU over USC, and I think if TCU loses and USC wins, USC will jump TCU, so I'd rather have USC lose because we won't know the outcome of the TCU game until after the USC game.

Hail to the Vi…

November 27th, 2022 at 10:45 PM ^

TCU is about as good of a first round matchup as Michigan could ask for in a 4 team play-off and creates a clear path to the National Championship game as long as we bring our A Game.

I do think Kansas State is extremely capable of beating them, as is Washington capable of beating USC.

This will be the most high stakes weekend of Conference Championship Games we've seen in the playoff era. The Big 12 and Pac12 games are by no means a formality (or B1G of course), and if upsets are pulled this thing is gonna get wild. 

 

 

HarmonHowardWoodson

November 27th, 2022 at 10:33 PM ^

3...but don't discount the committee's ability and desire to rank Alabama 5 over OSU this week so that the SEC would still get two teams in if TCU or USC falter.

Not saying it SHOULD happen, or even that it WILL happen, but it wouldn't shock me for them to rationalize the decision because of the "weak" Big Ten.

Hell, there's an argument that PSU should be ranked 6 behind OSU Tuesday.

MaizeBlueA2

November 27th, 2022 at 10:46 PM ^

There may be arguments but they won't be good ones. There is no way Bama or PSU are getting in over OSU. None of them play. 

If they had an opportunity to play and win this weekend, then sure. But those teams are locked in place. 

Bama's only shot to get in is USC loses to Utah and Kansas St. DESTROYS TCU.

Then that would be awful because OSU would be #3 and Bama would be #4 over #5 TCU. (if you think Bama would jump TCU in this unlikely scenario).

The hypotheticals are more about seeding at this point. The only hypotheticals for teams getting in are what I described. 

1. USC loses, OSU in.

2. TCU blown out (USC win)...maybe OSU in over TCU. 

3. USC loses, OSU in. TCU blown out...maybe Bama in over TCU. 

 

Those are the 3 hypotheticals for something other than Georgia, Michigan, TCU, USC (in some particular order).

UMForLife

November 28th, 2022 at 12:43 AM ^

Bama can get in over OSU. I would not say no way. Both are sitting at home. OSU has two decent wins although ND win is looking less glamorous now. PSU was destroyed by UM.

Bama lost two close games although they won a few close games. They have not beaten anyone in top 10 now. 

Regardless, SEC wins are valued more by committee. Would they put a 2 loss team over 1 loss team? What if USC loses a close game in championship week? 

I wouldn't be sure about OSU's chances. There is always a first for the committee. 

Hope USC wins and this is not even a consideration. 

Hail to the Vi…

November 27th, 2022 at 10:35 PM ^

#3 all the way. I hated the Trojans during the early aughts, but my personal opinion is that college football is more interesting when new teams introduce, or reintroduce themselves back onto the national stage a la. USC or Tennessee.

If USC loses their championship game, Ohio State is very much back in the playoff conversation; and while I'm certainly not scared of playing OSU again, there is the old adage about the hardest team to beat is a worthy adversary the second time. 

I'd rather see a fresh opponent, and USC vs. Michigan is a classic matchup that would be fun to see in a winner-advance setting.

nowicki2005

November 27th, 2022 at 10:36 PM ^

Caleb Williams would give us fits. Good mobile qbs tend to break off big lays on us but he is on another level. I feel like they can't pay defense given their coach though.

Hail to the Vi…

November 27th, 2022 at 10:50 PM ^

Caleb Williams legit is the best QB in college football. He's basically Stroud that can throw on the run and doesn't get rattled by pressure, His supporting cast is not what OSU's is, but he's become extremely dangerous at this point in the season and is absolutely the best college player headed into 2023.

He is going to give any defense all they can handle and then some.

MaizeBlueA2

November 27th, 2022 at 10:37 PM ^

As a sidenote... I'm loving the games this weekend. 

Friday night will be intriguing regardless of your rooting interests. A nice night that is stress free for the Wolverines but there will be a reason to watch the game and have a team to cheer for or against.

Noon, you get the Big-12 Championship, which was wild last year. But for those that haven't seen TCU, it'll be nice with that being the biggest game on in that window. Really a chance to fan scout - I'm sure there will be a lot of discussion on this board during that game.

You get the SEC at 4pm, along with UCF and Tulane trying to get a NY6 spot.

Then Michigan wraps up the night (alongside the ACC, but no one cares about that JV game now that Clemson is out).

 

Friday, December 2, 2022

14 UTAH  @  USC

8:00 PM, FOX, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV

-----------------------------------

Saturday, December 3, 2022

12 KSU @  TCU

12:00 PMABCAT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

 

LSU @  UGA

4:00 PM, CBS, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

 

22 UCF @  19 TULN

4:00 PMABCYulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA

 

FRES @  BOIS

4:00 PM, FOX, Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID

 

PUR @  MICH

8:00 PM, FOX, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

 

CLEM @  17 UNC

8:00 PMABCBank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC

Yeoman

November 27th, 2022 at 10:38 PM ^

7. Utah, because if OSU loses the Rose Bowl it will be "because Stroud didn't play" etc. but if they get shredded by Georgia or lose a National Championship game to Michigan haha #ItJustHurtsMore

denardogasm

November 27th, 2022 at 10:41 PM ^

USC because fuck the buckeyes.  But also USC, because fuck USC.  In 2006 we lost to OSU in a battle of unbeatens in Columbus, then lost to USC.  This is the year we correct the football universe.

Undefined

November 27th, 2022 at 10:42 PM ^

My answer is USC, but it's because I really don't like the idea of seeing them get punished for losing a conference title game that OSU isn't even playing in (lol)

leidlein

November 27th, 2022 at 10:45 PM ^

3

and also I am adding my own reason......... 7 - because I am a long / firm believer that only conference champions should be eligible. With only 4 spots, no reason for ANY conference to get two teams. When they expand the field to 12, no problem. For now there is no reason.

Another point I would make, I would not be 100% sure USC does not pass TCU. Who do you honestly think is better? 1-loss USC or undefeated / 1-loss TCU? Another question, if things hold and we are the 2 seed, who would you rather draw, TCU or USC?

 

MaizeBlueA2

November 27th, 2022 at 10:50 PM ^

While I agree...I know a lot of people who have SEC fatigue and would love to see two B1G teams get in and then Georgia beat OSU by 50. Which, I think is counterproductive if it's the B1G you are trying to prop up.

So with that said, 3 is the only answer for me and I'm so glad this board agrees with me!

Ghost of North Hall

November 27th, 2022 at 10:47 PM ^

3 for sure but it should not matter. Punishing USC for losing an extra game the teams behind them did not earn should never occur.

Only thing that should be able to change on Saturday is the seeding of the Top 4.

 

MaizeBlueA2

November 27th, 2022 at 10:54 PM ^

I understand your point. But I also think it depends on who you play. What if the Pac-12 was like the B1G and you had like 7-5 Colorado in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

I hear you, but it's tough for me to say USC, already with a loss...plus another loss to unranked 7-5 Colorado should still get the nod over an 11-1 team from a tougher conference.

Sllepy81

November 27th, 2022 at 10:49 PM ^

3. 

USC has to play 1 extra game that ohio state won't. How do we know ohio state wouldn't lose also? Bit unfair to reward the team who last got throttled.