Hoke& 2014: One sign to look for

Submitted by massblue on December 16th, 2013 at 12:01 PM

I am anxious to see if any UM football players decide to transfer this year.  I consider it a very good sign regarding the program and Hoke's relationship with the kids if (almost) no one decides to transfer.  Most of these kids were recruited by Hoke and should they decide to stick around even if they do not expect to see significant playing time, it will be significant positive signal for next year and the program.



December 16th, 2013 at 3:05 PM ^

exactly..  I remember waking up in college and watching michigan play under Carr in his last few years..  If we even had a freshman on the field it was all panic mode..  


Now we look back at last year, and we started more freshman than ever before in program history.. My how times have changed..  Or our lack of depth we are still struggling to build up after RR years and all the guys that left from the 2009-2011 classes


December 16th, 2013 at 12:19 PM ^

He only saw reserve time in six games last year, didn't sniff the field this year, and seems destined to fall even further on the depth chart with this incoming class.  Who knows, maybe he can drive east down Washtenaw about seven miles and find some playing time.

Space Coyote

December 16th, 2013 at 1:03 PM ^

That I don't believe Richardson saw the field at all this year, meaning he may not have seen the field because they are redshirting him and giving him the chance to bulk up a bit rather than just throwing him in there. With a bit more depth this year, the coaches may have felt they had the opportunity to do it this year rather than last year, but if Richardson is only a RS So next year, does that change people's perception of where he is.


December 16th, 2013 at 3:25 PM ^

Leaving the players aside, I think Borges is certainly up for debate. Next year is not Year 1 no matter what definition you use. It is put up or shut up time for him next year. I hope Space Cayote and others are right about him but he will have to prove it next year. Those FEI charts just don't lie and show clear regression from Year 1 to Year 2 to Year 3.


December 16th, 2013 at 12:19 PM ^

Obviously low attrition is good, but a little attrition is almost unavoidable, and can be healthy for both parties. I wouldn't read anything into a few guys leaving for various reasons (playing time, homesickness, general discontent, etc.). The levels of stability the team has had in the last couple of years are unrealistically and unsustainably low.


December 16th, 2013 at 12:22 PM ^

might have something to do with it.  With so much youth on the team the general mindset might well be that everthing is open for everybody (with the occasional exception) so might as well stick around and see if they can make a break out.


December 16th, 2013 at 12:39 PM ^

While low numbers are generally favorable I don't know if you can draw any definitive conclusions based solely on the raw number of transfers, for me it's the reason for the transfer that I look at more closely.  "I'm leaving because I'm buried on the depth chart and the talent level coming in is so high I'm never going to see the field" is not a bad thing and pretty understandable.   Also transfers resulting from a scheme change (say a new Defensive Coordinator) that doesnt fit the players particular skill sets or physical attributes arent always a bad thing either.

Players leaving because they arent having any fun (yes football is suppose to fun on at least some level) or because they feel they were mislead by the coaching staff during recruiting is a very bad thing.   I'm not sure what's going on in Florida right now other than, as Magnus said in a different thread, they might be thinking "damn..... this offense is horrible and I still cant see the field...time to move on."

By the way OP - I love your avatar - Dr Strangelove is one of my absolute movie favorites of all time.  There were so many little fantastic touches that Kubrick tossed in that you really don't notice until like the 10th time you watch it.

Edit: Can somebody explain why this post is getting hammered with down votes?  Outside of the OP's "what I'm looking for" tone it's pretty tame and does raise an interesting point of discussion.


December 16th, 2013 at 12:37 PM ^

Truthfully, some attrition is probably good for both the players transferring and the team. 

Players who don't see a future on the field can transfer to a different school and potentially contribute there. Hoke and Co. then have extra scholarship slots open up for players who may be a better fit than the players who have left. 

I can think of several players who this might apply to, but probably best not to name names.


December 16th, 2013 at 12:39 PM ^

A fairly positive post to death.  All he was saying was that he hopes that there was no attrition.  I would hope we all hope for little or no attrition but it is a daily occurence across the NCAA that people do make mistakes and move on, whether for playing time, home sickness, etc.


December 16th, 2013 at 12:48 PM ^

While the OP has a point, be careful what you wish for. Attrition is a necessary element of a vital, growing program. For example, the 2015 recruiting class, as it stands now, will be too small for comfort: in the 15-20 range, I believe. We sure could use a half-dozen more slots. And, since most players who transfer do so simply in order to receive more PT elsewhere, attrition is beneficial to them, too. 

He Hate Me

December 16th, 2013 at 12:51 PM ^

Actually I believe the biggest sign will not be attrition - the biggest indicator is what jersey sales in Ohio are doing over the course of the next 12 months


December 16th, 2013 at 12:56 PM ^

Regarding this topic, Seth did a great edition of Hokepoints late last year regarding attrition rates of classes going back to the early 1990s (HERE). What is interesting about this - and I revisit this entry on occasion - is that it seems Michigan classes have been historically quite variable when it comes to attrition rates, but so far there has not been much under Hoke (there were some from the 2011 class). 


December 16th, 2013 at 1:00 PM ^

Things to look for in 2014?  Man, I'm just looking to find out who, who, who let the dogs out.  People have been asking that important question since ~2000 and I don't believe it's been answered yet.

Blue in Yarmouth

December 16th, 2013 at 1:03 PM ^

Is development of the players this staff has recruited. 

I think this staff has shown that they can go out and recruit with anyone and have shown they have the values and beliefs that line up with what parents and recruits want to see in a program. Whether some players leave following any given season won't detract from that and given what we have seen, it will almost certainly be related to their prospects of playingtime.

The issue that I see as a potential for turning recruits heads is the seeming lack of development we have seen over the course of the past couple of years. This year they have an excuse of sorts in that the team was very young (though I still think we should have seen more progress during the year). Next year, though we will still be young, the core of the 2 deep will have been here long enough that we should see significant improvement.

If a trend becomes evident where highly touted players come to UM but don't develop into NFL draft picks, players are going to start to question whether coming here is going to get them to the next level (which many of them aspire to do). 

So for me, the number 1 thng I want to see from Hoke (and more specifically this staff as a whole) is that they have developed the players we have by showing us the results on the field. If they can't do that I am going to have to seriously question the long-temr viability of BH as the head coach of UM (which I haven't done to this point). 


December 16th, 2013 at 1:07 PM ^

Clearly, transfers is not the best indicator of good coaching, but there certainly is no denying that it not only factors into the medica coverage and perception of the program, but it ensures the team keeps building depth and experience.  Look at Florida and Michigan. Florida's transfers have to be absolutely killing their perception with the media and recruits.  We of course all remember Michigan's situations, but the transfers without a doubt had a major impact in kililng depth and experience on the team under Rich Rod.

Can't say this is the biggest thing, but it is at least a positive thing to note.


December 16th, 2013 at 1:28 PM ^

The program usually announces all the transfers and unrenewed 5th years at once, right?  I imagine that'll happen a little while after the bowl game, after Hoke has a chance to talk with each player (and the player talks with their family over winter break).