Georgia now -8, -8.5, -9
-8
https://www.playnj.com/news/will-nj-sports-bettors-roll-with-alabama/61200/
-8.5, with video at link saying why:
https://betting.gazette.com/video/orange-bowl-preview-georgia-vs-michigan-2
-9
https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/football/ncaa/game/489791507
Georgia's run defense vs Michigan run game is at center stage. Georgia's run defense has been very tough all year. The monster in the middle is the significant reason why.
This will definitely be the biggest test of the year for the O Line.
What does Michigan do? Pump it up, and prove them wrong!
December 9th, 2021 at 11:28 AM ^
Jordan Davis is huge, but after he got locked on the field for a few plays he was indeed gassed.
What struck me most was how bad his fundamentals were. He stood straight up at the snap then moved forward. He didn't fire out and drive, he stood up and then waded into the Bama line. I can see a 340lb human clogging the middle like that, but he generated zero rush.
In other words, he has bad pad level.
December 9th, 2021 at 12:30 PM ^
I can see why people are enamored by him he makes these wow plays that no one else can. Then on a lot of plays he looks like a huge dude who is way out of shape. He was moved fairly well against bama. A lot of the teams they played they crowded the box and said try and beat us through the air. Reminded me of Don Browns 2016 defense. Make no mistake though their defense has some dudes and is very good but I have a feeling Gattis is going to use their aggression against them.
December 9th, 2021 at 6:43 AM ^
The best scenario we can hope for is that Georgia proves,once again, that they are an overrated team and Michigan exposes them just like Alabamy did. And it would be great to see both Hutchinson and Ojabo take out both Georgia QBs so that their team has to rely on their RB to take direct snaps.
December 9th, 2021 at 7:51 AM ^
Ah, the old "SEC East Syndrome", where now and again, a team rises then falls at the most inopportune moment. In the state of Georgia, I believe this is known better as "The Richt Method".
December 9th, 2021 at 6:57 AM ^
So far 75% of the public is on Michigan. I don't usually look at public/money until the day before and hour before but it's of some interest.
All of the public/money was on ohio State up until a few hours before kickoff when the money began shifting UM's way.
December 9th, 2021 at 10:27 AM ^
Where do you go for this data?
December 9th, 2021 at 7:00 AM ^
I remember alot of similar comments prior to the ohio game.
December 9th, 2021 at 7:02 AM ^
Buckeyes were -7. Then they were beat into oblivion.
I'll leave the lines at that.
Go Blue.
December 9th, 2021 at 10:08 AM ^
OSU Bolivia campus
December 9th, 2021 at 7:08 AM ^
I’m good with this. I hope the line keeps climbing because all it does is continue to fuel Michigan. They already have that edge factor to them and this will just enhance that. Georgia will bring it just as hard at the beginning of the game, emotions will be high, it’s after that when we smack them in the face to see what they do. So far, a lot of teams have folded to Michigan when we start bullying them.
December 9th, 2021 at 7:18 AM ^
This line smells like baby poop. I think it’s driven by the broad perception that the SEC is the colossus of CFB and Michigan is the plucky outsider. Both teams have well established programs with loads of talent, but Georgia has been touted since September, while Michigan has only recently emerged as CFP material. So, yeah, Vegas suckers the chumps and SEC homers and the line goes up. But…Georgia hasn’t played a very tough schedule, and when they went up an equally talented team with better coaching, they got pimp slapped off the field. I am really excited to see what our coaching staff comes up with for this game and I believe our superior team chemistry will play a big roll. Just make sure Georgia keeps reading its newspaper clippings. *
* - Not that 50% of Georgia’s team have ever read a newspaper, but you get my drift.
December 9th, 2021 at 7:22 AM ^
If MSU Cade shows up, Michigan can work around the potential run game problems. If Washington Cade shows up, they'll have problems.
December 9th, 2021 at 7:43 AM ^
washington cade hasn't been seen in over 3 months. MSU cade has been here pretty much since october. my money is on MSU cade. or better.
December 9th, 2021 at 7:48 AM ^
First half against Iowa says otherwise
December 9th, 2021 at 8:15 AM ^
I say more like 2nd quarter and it has to do with how Iowa defended that quarter and a pass miraculously landed with Iowa's defender.
December 9th, 2021 at 8:25 AM ^
2nd quarter we spent starting out on our 3-6 yd line and didn't want anything to get away from us. conservative play calling and patience led the way to win the field position battle. cade was fine.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:10 AM ^
Cade was not fine. Joe Klatt even was commenting on the open receivers he was missing.
December 9th, 2021 at 11:00 AM ^
First half against Iowa Cade did what we needed him to, namely throw zero interceptions. I mean sure technically he threw one but it was on the receiver IMO. They were #1 by a fair margin in INTs and that was their way back into the game. He kept the door shut.
December 9th, 2021 at 1:25 PM ^
The stats and UFR say otherwise. There is a reason Cade is currently ranked 53rd in the country for passing efficiency. He hasn't exactly been lighting it up since October. The PSU game was looking pretty dire until the Erick All play. Sure, he's mostly been better than the Washington/Rutgers/NW iterations, but 20/30 for 200 yards and 2 TDs isn't going to beat Georgia if the run game gets stifled. Honestly, Cade is a known commodity at this point and he's just not going to have an MSU-like performance against a defense like Georgia's. Cade apologists can neg away here, but I don't see how they score enough points to win unless McCarthy is utilized more than he has been all year.
December 9th, 2021 at 8:13 AM ^
What if Alabama game Stetson Bennett shows up for them? The game won’t be won or lost solely on either quarterback.
December 9th, 2021 at 7:33 AM ^
I'll be honest. It should be pick em.
December 9th, 2021 at 7:40 AM ^
That’s ok. UM is 11-2 against the spread this year, outperforming the spread by 10.6 points on average. So as long as it stays below Georgia -11, we’re ?
December 9th, 2021 at 7:48 AM ^
Michigan will have to play offense like they did against MSU to win this game. They will need to throw the ball all over the field
December 9th, 2021 at 7:51 AM ^
Georgia will be a very stiff test but UM has faced similar defenses (Wiscy and Iowa may not have the athletes but have performed quite well) so I don't think they will be overwhelmed by the complexity.
UM is the underdog; that's fine. But I do think people are overrating UGa a bit because of the assumption that they were this clear #1 team instead of a flawed team that is a top-5 outfit that played a weak-ish schedule.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:06 AM ^
The unstated foundation for much of the downgrading of Michigan's chances is the widespread conviction—naturally strongest among SEC proponents—that the physical talent in the SEC is so significantly better than the talent at virtually all BIG programs that even a middling SEC team that appears to have some flaws is simply inherently better than most BIG programs.
Proponents of that view can point to the fact that the huge majority of the top recruits evaluated by recruiting services come from the South, and a majority of those who don't come from California. The percentage coming from the upper midwest is quite small. Yes, programs like Michigan and OSU have players from the south, but that's nothing like programs like Georgia or Alabama, whose rosters are overwhelmingly from the south.
Georgia's roster has a small handful from CA; 6 other players are from north of the Mason-Dixon line, but 5 of them are from the east coast in RI, NJ, and MD. Only 1 is from a classic Big Ten state, Pennsylvania. None from Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Indiana, or Iowa.
I also think Michigan is being downgraded because of the past performance of two other northern programs in the playoffs, MSU and ND. Obviously those programs don't have anything to do with 2021 Michigan, but their poor games only served to cement the notion that the SEC simply has better physical talent, period.
While the nation has watched MSU and ND get ragdolled, they've seen southern teams win almost all the national championships over the last two decades, with the only exceptions being two USC teams and two OSU teams. Since 2005, only one northern team has won the NC—every other champion has been from the deep south. The narrative stemming from that is hard to combat.
What nobody in SEC land is apparently contemplating is the fact that seven of the southern NCs since 2000 have been Nick Saban-coached teams at LSU and Alabama. What happens to Alabama once Saban retires will be interesting.
December 9th, 2021 at 10:43 AM ^
I agree about the narrative and it's likely fueled in part by the propensity of recruiters and recruiting services to focus on southern teams because of convenience, bias, etc. It's easier to scout kids who can play/practice longer throughout the year and have camps closer to them, so you wind up seeing breathless commentary about some 3* kid from suburban Birmingham, Alabama while a similarly-situated kid outside of St. Louis gets a perfunctory fire-and-forget analysis.
I think a lot of the SEC "domination" is synonymous with "Alabama", and so you see the two conflated in a lot of minds. Yes, LSU had that one crazy year and FSU had a run with Winston but those were way more one-offs and those programs have struggled relatively speaking to keep up. I do think there's a greater concentration of talent in certain southern states; Louisiana is a great example of a small-ish state that produces a larger percentage of D1 players than you'd think. But without Alabama you'd likely have years where, I don't know, Oregon and/or OU won a title (if you consider Oklahoma more western than southern), OSU probably won another, maybe even Michigan or ND sneaks in. It's still a sport with gravity toward the south but it also creates a feedback loop wherein #1 Georgia gets blown out by a playoff team and falls to #3 while ND loses to a playoff team and doesn't have any real chance to make the playoffs despite their actual schedules and quality of opponent being not all that dissimilar. I'm not saying ND should have gotten in over Georgia (they shouldn't have), but last year Clemson got a similar pass mostly for just existing while you could argue there were a handful of teams who should have been in instead.
December 9th, 2021 at 5:19 PM ^
The Bama effect is huge. If you flipped OSU's playoff record with Bama's, it would change the whole narrative--imagine Michigan losing to OSU and still making the CFP. Bama right now is the most successful program in modern history, so whenever they beat the brakes off another conference team that team still gets style points.
December 9th, 2021 at 5:19 PM ^
double post
December 9th, 2021 at 7:57 AM ^
“And most important, don’t get caught up thinking about winning or losing this game. If you put your effort and concentration into playing to your potential, to be the best that you can be, I don’t care what the scoreboard says at the end of the game, in my book we’re gonna be winners!”
-Coach Norman Dale
December 9th, 2021 at 8:09 AM ^
I think Georgia's key to winning is to run up the middle mixed in with some simple QB short game things.
Our key to winning is to stop that.
December 9th, 2021 at 8:39 AM ^
The real question is, what will the line be on a Bearcat vs Wolverine NC game?
December 9th, 2021 at 8:57 AM ^
Michigan -6.5
December 9th, 2021 at 9:30 AM ^
The Cinci vs Michigan line will change after the semi's, most certainly.
December 9th, 2021 at 8:42 AM ^
The "monster in the middle" will get gassed and become a non-factor. Happened vs Bama and will happen vs UM.
December 9th, 2021 at 8:59 AM ^
Their best player plays on like 30% of their defensive snaps. Run at him until he's gassed and ineffective in the second half.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:14 AM ^
He seems like a college version of Shaun Rogers. Unblockable for 2 plays then on the O2 tank for a series.
More recently, FSU had this with Timmy Jerrnigan in their NC year. He was a beast until he ran out of gas and was on the sideline for pivotal plays in the 4th quarter.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:22 AM ^
It's a plan that could work, however, Michigan will have to go tempo with no substitutions to keep him on the field for an extended period of time. Bama kept him out on the field a play or two longer than normal for Jordan, but they eventually needed to change personnel and he subbed out. We (Georgia) would welcome a gameplan that called for runs straight at Jordan.
The better strategy would be to go tempo when you have a short yardage 3rd Down play (following an obvious passing down like 2 & 10) to keep him on the sideline.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:07 AM ^
Michigan can out coach these guys.
Georgia is going to play Georgia football. By that I mean they won't be breaking a lot of tendencies. What Michigan sees on film is what they will get.
In fact, I bet Georgia is practicing trickery but with the intentions of saving it for Bama.
All they're hearing is stop the run and win the game.
Play like Dawgs and win because SEC and then get to the game that really matters.
I got this pre OSU gut feeling that Michigan is going to jump on them with a wave of momentum that they aren't going to be ready for.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:16 AM ^
If we come out like we did vs OSU and jump on them early, we will then see what Kirby is capable of. He came back from a big deficit in the playoffs before, but off a beatdown loss to Alabama when it was finally deemed "their year", we will see how they respond. Will they respond like they did vs OU in 2017 playoffs, or like how OSU responded
December 9th, 2021 at 9:21 AM ^
Good. Pump that line up. SEC mystique. We have no chance. Just like against OSU.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:24 AM ^
If this game comes down to our talent vs their talent Georgia will win most of the time. Ohio State has more talent than Georgia and we smoked them. If we are going to win, it is going to come down to coaching and keeping our players disciplined. That's how we beat OSU and it is how we are going to beat Georgia. My confidence comes in our coaches vs Georgia's coaches. I really think this Georgia team, their fan base and all the SEC isn't giving us or Cincinnati a chance. As many have said already over-confidence can be a killer if you are playing a team that believes in themselves. That is exactly who Michigan is right now. A team that believes in each other. Keep this game close well into the 2nd half and we have a great chance to pull it out. I do not believe this will be a blowout in our favor.
December 9th, 2021 at 2:25 PM ^
You saved me the trouble of looking for this clip. Thought of it instantly. +1 to you.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:26 AM ^
Beat Georgia
December 9th, 2021 at 9:35 AM ^
Fine by me. I love being the underdog and everything that status brings with it.
We've been underdogs this entire season and it has worked out well so far.
December 9th, 2021 at 10:00 AM ^
-7.5 on all the major books but that really doesn't mean much at all
December 9th, 2021 at 10:03 AM ^
I want to thank Vegas for supplementing the Michigan fan's cost to attend the NCG.
December 9th, 2021 at 10:04 AM ^
Spread? What spread? Beat Georgia!
Timely JJ deployment will be key. If he can be 85% of Bryce Young, I think we're good.
Go Blue!
December 9th, 2021 at 10:05 AM ^
If the teams play like they have for their season averages then Michigan probably loses by 8+, if the teams play like the did in their conference championship games then I think Michigan can pull it off.
If I'm betting money that'd hurt to lose however I just can't take M. We don't run a no-huddle type offense so the substituting Michigan does from play to play will allow Davis to get on and off the field when he needs a break. Maybe there's just enough tricks in the bag on offense and enough Aidan Hutchinson wrecking drives on defense to pull it out but I can't argue with the line where it is.
December 9th, 2021 at 10:40 AM ^
Everybody's allowed their take, I'm not going to downvote you, but the way our offensive line is playing, I'm not buying everybody's assumption that we'll be forced to abandon the running game.
Also I've watched a little bit of Georgia, and that defensive line gets a nice initial push, then they like to collapse and clog the running lanes, that can potentially shut down the inside running game, but it looks like the way they play gives you a big opportunity to bounce it outside as long as they haven't gotten into the backfield in time to blow up the play.
I just feel like we can start pulling guards and running down the sideline until that d-line is absolutely gassed, if we bring in JJ for a healthy dose of read option, I also don't trust Georgia to maintain discipline.
We'll see right, maybe I'm in the grip of irrational exuberance, but I think we will get it done on the ground, and we're going to get our TDs.