ESPN Writers Pick Michigan Fourth in Playoff Chase
Don’t look now but Michigan is getting some love from the ESPN talking heads at least even if we don’t see it reflected in the poll. At least right now seems like we’re in the catbird seat at least according to these writers. 8/13 pick Michigan to make the Playoffs putting as at the fourth spot behind Georgia, OSU, and Tennessee(!). Nowhere to be seen? Almighty Bama
Link: https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/page/playoffpredictions101522/college-football-playoff-picks-week-7
October 16th, 2022 at 7:52 AM ^
At least according to these guys makes it seem like it would be tough for there to be two SEC teams this year since one of Tennessee and Georgia are getting a loss so it’s possible one or both of the SEC championship teams start the game with a loss. Would love a shot at Tennessee this year especially if we limit the penalties like we’ve done much of the year.
October 16th, 2022 at 9:16 AM ^
Are we seriously not seeing an undefeated Georgia vs. 1-loss Bama in the SEC championship game with Bama winning and getting into the playoffs again along with Georgia?
I mean we saw this movie last year and there is no reason to think we won’t get an evil sequel to it.
October 16th, 2022 at 9:30 AM ^
The only reason I don't think we will see it is one of them. Teams will have two losses. You might see, for example Alabama, Tennessee, Ohio State and then whoever else the committee decides. Michigan will be in play no matter what in my opinion.
October 16th, 2022 at 10:04 AM ^
So, two B1G teams but no way there’s two SEC teams? Asking for clarification (not sarcasm).
October 16th, 2022 at 10:52 AM ^
B1G bias.
/s
October 16th, 2022 at 11:20 AM ^
And Jerry Palm over at CBSSports dropped Michigan from 5 to 6… behind 1 loss Alabama.
Georgia, OSU, Clemson, Tennessee, Bama, Michigan
Still way too early to worry about this; it always seems to play itself out. But if the mind wanders, it starts to ask, “What if Tennessee beats Georgia?” “If they do and Alabama beats Tennessee in the rematch, will all 3 of Bama, Tennessee, and Georgia make the playoff?
October 16th, 2022 at 11:25 AM ^
Or another scenario I had in mind: UGa beats Tenn, Ala beats UGa in SEC championship game. All three have one loss to each other. SEC will scream bloody murder to have all three get in.
October 16th, 2022 at 12:26 PM ^
Makes you realize how fans of Cincinnati, etc. must feel when they win yet drop in the polls. Somehow the assumption is “well, Bama is the gold standard so anyone who beats them must be in the top three.” If one-loss Tenn, Bama, and GA teams get in and the Big Ten gets shut out (maybe we beat OSU and Clemson goes unbeaten) it’s gonna suck.
October 16th, 2022 at 11:34 AM ^
That is surprising because Alabama has been trying pretty hard to get knocked off all season. They finally succeeded; Bama this year is not the Bama that Jerry Palm is trying to remember.
October 16th, 2022 at 12:39 PM ^
People are overlooking Notre Dame.
October 16th, 2022 at 7:55 AM ^
I just don't see Michigan and OSU both making it this year. There are too many SEC teams plus Clemson vying for spots.
October 16th, 2022 at 8:06 AM ^
I really think it would depend on the quality of the game in Columbus but also what else happens in the final six weeks of the season. You never know where an unexpected loss happens. Our team has to be careful and get to Columbus at 11-0 to put the pressure on the committee. At that point ride or die.
October 16th, 2022 at 10:53 AM ^
Why do you think two B1G teams in the CFP depends on Michigan losing close at OSU? What if Michigan wins out and it's an 11-1 OSU team who has destroyed everyone else puts the pressure on the committee?
October 16th, 2022 at 11:20 AM ^
If Ohio State loses to Michigan, it will be fair to say Buckeyes have no great, CFP-worthy wins. There's no other impressive team on the schedule. Losing at home to Michigan will knock OSU out of contention.
October 16th, 2022 at 11:30 AM ^
Yeah ND is really hurting OSU, but either way the loser of Michigan/OSU will have no CFP-worthy wins unless maybe Penn St goes 10-2 and looks really good the rest of the way? In that case OSU beating them on the road would look good, and Michigan dominating them at home would look good. Michigan could pick up a good win over Illinois if that team continues to roll. Indiana beating them is more puzzling by the week though.
October 16th, 2022 at 12:01 PM ^
PSU isn't going 10-2. I see another loss or two on their schedule besides OSU. Their Auburn win was very misleading as it turns out that Auburn is just horrible.
October 16th, 2022 at 8:35 AM ^
On the other hand; where was the defense at 'Bama and Tennessee? Come on, 101 pts were scored in that game (52-49 Vols). The Playoff Committee should weigh the balance of a good offensive and good defensive team. It will be interesting to see how these teams will be ranked by those folks come November.
As for the rest of SEC, It should be one of the defensive teams to be considered for the playoffs and only Georgia come to mind.
October 16th, 2022 at 8:40 AM ^
Bama corners were not very good. Tennessee completed so many throws downfield and TN had a step on corners. Bama was able to score 49 despite many miscues. So, defense was not a strength for either team. TN was way too blitz happy.
October 16th, 2022 at 9:19 AM ^
What choice did they have but to blitz?
4 man rush was getting stoned and giving Bryce Young time is a recipe for disaster. Especially when half of TN’s corner depth chart was out injured.
I mean Bryce Young is slippery and it’s not like the blitzes were super-effective but at least there was a chance of rattling him.
October 16th, 2022 at 11:12 AM ^
I agree with you, but that was my point. Their 4 man rush was getting no where. Bryce Young was a cool cat even when you rush more than 4. It will be extremely hard for TN to continue to blitz and win big games. Bama wasn't themselves yesterday. We will see how TN does against Georgia.
October 16th, 2022 at 10:59 AM ^
Bama's corners had a couple of moments that had me wondering how Don Brown was doing, and it's not so good.
October 16th, 2022 at 10:51 AM ^
Bama has such a good reputation and has been consistently good that I think they've tricked people that this team is better than it actually is. They are a team in the 5-10 range, not top 3
October 16th, 2022 at 9:46 AM ^
The idea of Michigan making the playoff after a loss in Columbus is kinda far-fetched. You'd need a lot of chaos for that to be a factor. It's not theoretically impossible, but OSU will be the only opponent on our schedule getting any national respect, so to lose that game will basically make us look like very much a paper tiger team even if we're 11-1.
October 16th, 2022 at 10:50 AM ^
Not to mention the timing of the OSU game makes it so both teams can never make it to the CFP. If we played each other earlier in the season, then it would be possible, but not when it's the last game of the season. Bama for example can come back from the loss to Tennessee and make it
October 16th, 2022 at 10:57 AM ^
An undefeated Bama lost the Iron Bowl in 2017 but still made (and won) the playoff. A #1 or #2 team can have its only loss late and still be given serious consideration.
According to traditional polls (AP & Coach/SID), you're right. But the CFP committee doesn't function the same as those polls.
October 16th, 2022 at 11:02 AM ^
Just last year Georgia made it after losing in the SEC Championship.
October 16th, 2022 at 11:52 AM ^
If the playoffs were 8 teams like it should have been from the beginning Michigan and OSU would definitely be in
October 16th, 2022 at 12:41 PM ^
Urbs might cry 11-1 OSU’s way in again.
October 16th, 2022 at 7:58 AM ^
The doomsday scenario for the CFP is:
- Clemson drops one, but wins the ACC
- USC wins out incl. the Pac-12 title
- Georgia beats Tennessee
- Alabama wins out incl. beating Georgia in the SEC Championship
- Michigan and Ohio State head into the game, both at 11-0, winner wins the B1G
So you'd have
12-1 ACC Champ Clemson
12-1 Pac-12 Champ USC
12-1 SEC Champ Bama
11-1 Tennessee
12-1 Georgia
13-0 Ohio State or Michigan
11-1 Ohio State or Michigan
My guess is the 4 conference champions get in, but who knows?
October 16th, 2022 at 8:05 AM ^
Don't forget about an undefeated or one-loss big 12 champ TCU or OK ST to make it even messier!
October 16th, 2022 at 9:15 AM ^
A 1-loss Big 12 team is probably quickly overlooked.
October 16th, 2022 at 9:43 AM ^
They shouldn't be. According to SP+ it's a deep league this year. All the teams are "good".
Prior to yesterday, conference SP+ stats were:
1. SEC: 13.4 average SP+ (34.0 average offensive SP+, 20.8 average defensive SP+)
2. Big 12: 12.1 average (34.6 offense, 22.5 defense)
3. Big Ten: 9.8 average (29.8 offense, 20.0 defense)
4. Pac-12: 5.2 average (32.1 offense, 26.9 defense)
5. ACC: 3.4 average (29.3 offense, 25.9 defense)
I expect an undefeated or 1 loss Big12 champ to get serious consideration.
October 16th, 2022 at 10:07 AM ^
Undefeated champ is in. One loss probably out to one loss PAC 12 and Clemson.
October 16th, 2022 at 11:33 AM ^
The playoff committee will behave like a tribunal in an anime and vote to expand the playoffs to 8 teams this year. It'd be their only face saving move.
October 16th, 2022 at 8:15 AM ^
That is one hell of a parlay
October 16th, 2022 at 8:41 AM ^
I am rooting for PSU to beat OSU.
October 16th, 2022 at 11:11 AM ^
If they can’t run the ball substantially better against OSU than they did yesterday against us, OSU will roll them as easily as we did.
October 16th, 2022 at 12:41 PM ^
Would love to see that, but I don't see PSU beating OSU even in Happy Valley at night in 2 weeks.
October 16th, 2022 at 8:03 AM ^
Michigan is first in our hearts.
October 16th, 2022 at 8:04 AM ^
Next time hit the link button at the top of the text box and paste the link in there.
October 16th, 2022 at 10:08 AM ^
Rabble rabble rabble
October 16th, 2022 at 8:04 AM ^
So beat what appears to be a down Bama team and your the greatest thing since the wagon wheel? Tennessee looks good but there’s a lot of meat on that bone to prove they’re for real. Beat Georgia and your in. Hell Kentucky may end any hype in two weeks.
October 16th, 2022 at 10:21 AM ^
Yes, beat Alabama and you're golden. Texas A&M has been living on last years win all year, and its only now starting to wear off.
October 16th, 2022 at 11:13 AM ^
Texas A&M’s struggles this season have been enjoyable as hell.
October 16th, 2022 at 11:36 AM ^
A&M
ND
Oklahoma
MSU
Iowa
2022 has been a good year.
October 16th, 2022 at 8:10 AM ^
USC losing last night did a lot to help Michigan’s cause, but if Clemson gets through the rest of the season unscathed, they’re taking that fourth spot.
The hardest part of their schedule is already over, and their toughest remaining games are at home.
Michigan is almost certainly going to have to be undefeated to make it in this year. If they’re not, they’ll need to:
1) Play an extremely close, great game against OSU that could’ve gone either way. They’ll also need to dominate the rest of the way.
2) Tennessee will need to beat Georgia, and beat Alabama again in the conference title game, or whoever makes it there from the West otherwise.
3) UCLA and Clemson will need to lose somewhere. Any undefeated P5 teams will get the nod over an 11-1 Michigan.
October 16th, 2022 at 8:14 AM ^
We just have to survive and advance I think there’s going to be a lot more chaos this year. It’s still early and if Clemson were to lose to ND for some inexplicable reason that would be a dagger. USC and UCLA should take care of each other and could lose elsewhere along the way. At any rate just seems interesting that these writers are picking Michigan at a much higher rate than all season when it was only Connelly picking us.
October 16th, 2022 at 8:53 AM ^
Let's face it, with our schedule if we make it to Ohio undefeated, that's our playoff game right there.
October 16th, 2022 at 9:46 AM ^
Perfectly captures the reality of the whole thing.
October 16th, 2022 at 12:09 PM ^
It's our first playoff game, if we win it we get more.