Craig Ross not mentioning Trotsky on today's episode cost me a lot of money!!

Are we really surprised by this? We've known for years that fanbase is the most spoiled and entitled on the planet. We've watched them scream at their players by their first names and call them every nasty name in the book for fumbling or dropping a pass. Collectively, they are pure narcissists. They cannot accept in any capacity that Michigan has surpassed them. They will rationalize beyond any coherent thoughts process to explain why they've lost. There's no joy in their lives and they will do everything to suck the joy out of yours. They expect everyone to submerse into their fantasy world completely or they will try to destroy your soul if you do not comply.

and it's all you need

Co-signed. Ari Wasserman is a glorified know-it-all message board poster whose two passions -- tOSU and recuiting stars -- happen to overlap. 

He's a world-class twat.

I think this is fair on Ari but it's wider - a lot of people don't KNOW this is crap because it is very convenient for them if it's not. I think  Bielema, Rhule and co really believe that legal sign stealing gives less advantage than Stalions' sign stealing - not because of a thoughtful critique. And not because they're idiots, especially about football. But because they see one as normal and the other as suspicious and it's convenient to feel better about themselves vs Michigan if it's just the signs.

We also have similar blind spots, which is why I purposely wasn't as confident signs didn't matter...until the AP, SI and Yahoo articles. At which point it is very clear that whatever advantage Stalions got, it wasn't major. Klatt - who really is a neutral observer, not a Michigan guy but not an M-hater - also seems to think it was overblown so that makes me both trust him more and believe that we're right.

But yea, Wasserman and CFB nerds are folks who look at paper, not Xs and Os, but stars and math models, and think they should tell the whole story. They want to be the next moneyball generation. And I LOVED moneyball - but we have to recognize the limitations of statistics, and know Goodhart's law, and remember the point of a football game is to win and you win by scoring more points than the opponent. Every other stat just helps explain how you won or predict your winning - stars matter but they're not destiny.

He is just emblematic of the year round football fan that you see at a lot of the year in and year out playoff contenders.  What do you when you live and die by the success of your program, yet there is only actual football for 8.5 months out of the year?  Well, you turn recruiting into a whole new game to "win" so you can cheer on your team year round. 

That means getting the most guys with the highest stars - ignoring the fact that all of those rankings are basically about 10 people's opinions thrown into a blender that supposedly spit out something we are supposed to consider as measurable quantitative data.  When you truly believe this is actual data, I can easily see why on the OSU side you can look at the last two years and say "How on earth did we lose to these guys?  Something must be up."

I'm not going to go full on "stars don't matter", but other things DO ALSO matter. 

Roster construction - Getting four 4-5 star receivers every year makes your class ranking look awesome, but after 3 years in a row of that, it's useless, because you can't put 10 receivers out on the field at the same time.  Practice snaps are also limited.  So, you've ensured you will have one badass receiver room at all times, but your overall talent ranking is inflated because you literally cannot use all of those guys to their potential.

Player development - Seems obvious, but often ignored by the folks who focus only on stars.  IMO, OSU is really lacking those 3 star guys (frequently from Ohio) who don't really come on until years 4 or 5.

Coaching/Playing Style - Maybe a high powered offense that focuses on wide recevering the opponent to death might not be the best tactic for a team that has to play their biggest game of the year in the midwest in late November?  Seems to maybe work better in the playoffs...if you can get there.

Transfer Portal - I will die on this hill - the Transfer Portal is more powerful for a school like Michigan than trying to out recruit OSU.  Getting a 5 star guy takes time, effort and money...and at many positions, they will suck in year 1, you will get mixed results in year 2, then hopefully you get enough in year 3 for it to be worth all the effort and playing time given to a sub optimal player who demands playing time from day 1.  Then they are off to the NFL...or if you actually get a fourth year, chances are they didn't really pan out as a top 30 player in their class.  Contrast this with the production Michigan got from a couple guys the last few years.  5th year Olu vs a 5 star freshman/sophomore center?  Don't make me laugh.  AJ Barner vs a 5 star freshman/sophomore?  Outside of a handful of the absolute best, no way, Barner was a better deal.  Stewart performed about as well as you could expect from the absolute best 5 star DE as a freshman...but showed his years of wisdom as a smart, older player as the year went on.  Again, IMO, this is how you "beat" recruiting rankings - up transfers of proven players that are ready to go, instead of loading up on lottery tickets.

Ari is a glorified fan boi.  He bases everything on the self fulfilling prophecy of espn rankings.  

Al Borges or AI Borges?

Because its not based on which team is actually better, its which has earned the spot. If it were about which team were better, why would Cincinnati have made it in 2021 over Ohio State? 

Or why would Alabama have been left out last year over TCU? Why was TCU ahead of Ohio State?

They will not move a P5 undefeated champion behind a P5 champion with one loss. 

They also gamed the two biggest plays of this game - the interceptions - in a way that lots of football math models don't appreciate. A) turnovers are rare and sometimes fluky, so they often get ignored. But M clearly baited that RPO slant and was ready for it - that was a season-long effort at making that big play happen. B) the way that M ran the clock and TOs down, getting points to necessitate driving the field and allowing them to tee off on the passer are things those models do not measure. They are almost always "tempo free." But M's late game strategy allowed them to repeatedly pressure the QB, and throw contested passes 3 times - only one of which was maybe caught.

I think that's a thing that hasn't been completely absorbed by many non-Michigan staffs- if you know that you can convert a 4th and ~2.5 or so 80 percent of the time, then your choices on 3rd and ~6-7 look very different, and it changes your whole mindset.