Hinton is in [Bryan Fuller]

Unverified Voracity Cuts Down A Tree Comment Count

Brian September 22nd, 2020 at 2:13 PM

The crux. Adam Rittenberg has a extensive article on the Big Ten's decision to play after all. This is the heart of the matter:

"You're catching somebody with a positive before they're even contagious," said Dr. Jeff Mjaanes, Northwestern's head team physician and a member of the Big Ten's medical subcommittee. "That's a huge breakthrough in this. If we can do that on a daily basis, which is what's in our proposal, then we can identify people before they're even infectious, and we can remove them and really maintain the sanctity and the health of the team.

"With daily antigen testing, if you're able to identify somebody before they're actually contagious, and we can remove them, it almost completely eliminates the need for contact tracing."

The other key component was getting everyone access to the equipment OSU doctors used to find myocarditis in asymptomatic athletes:

Mjaanes said the Big Ten also was able to "secure some workarounds" so that every school could have access to cardiac MRIs. Penn State, for example, formed a partnership with Penn State Health Milton S. Hershey Medical Center so that any athletes who test positive will drive the 90 minutes to Hershey, Pennsylvania, for their cardiac tests. Heading into the Aug. 11 vote, a few Big Ten schools couldn't easily process cardiac MRIs, which are key in detecting myocarditis and other heart issues.

Thus a delayed but extant football season.

[After THE JUMP: print out these hockey draft rankings and use them to build a horse]

As Northwestern's president said:

"Medical opinion changed," Schapiro said. "Paul Samuelson, the great economist, was once asked why he changed his mind, and he said, 'When the facts change, my mind changes.' Doesn't the same thing happen for you? The facts change, our minds change."

Trying to do this without daily point of contact testing has resulted in a ~33% postponement/cancellation rate.

If cases tick up on campus that'll probably get worse before it gets better. I haven't seen any information about whether and how the Big 12, SEC, and ACC are adopting the point of contact testing.

The scheduling frenzy. Attempting to herd 350+ cats into various college basketball bubbles is a big, hairy job:

"Everyone's scrambling" has been a consistent refrain from people throughout college basketball, as has a specific four-letter obscenity that precedes "show."

Nonconference games remain on the table for almost all leagues except the Ivy, which is in the unique position of having a lot of money and not caring about sports all that much. Multi-team bubble events are likely to be regional since long-distance travel and commercial flights are both bad ideas, and a testing disparity between high and low major may prevent many buy-game-type matchups:

"We're probably not going to [be able to schedule] any high-majors," one SoCon head coach said.

As a result, with potentially limited opportunities for mid-majors to get statement wins against high-major programs, it could be difficult for any typical "one-bid" leagues to get an at-large bid come March.

Also apparently they've reduced the number of games?

Some leagues are playing 20 conference games, leaving just seven games to schedule in nonconference.

Schools usually play ~34 regular season games.

Items specific to Michigan:

  • The Empire Classic is tentatively moving to the Mohegan Sun casino that's going to host all this company's events. It may happen November 25th and 26th. It would seem to make sense to play some more games there if possible, but no word on that yet.
  • The Big Ten-ACC challenge is apparently going to proceed on campus.
  • There is "not a lot of optimism" that most of the Gavitt Games will be salvaged. Those had not been announced yet; Michigan was probably not amongst the Big Ten teams slated.

This is fine, men's gymnastics edition. Love to see athletic directors at Iowa and Minnesota protect their paychecks over the athletes they've ruthlessly cut because of a temporary revenue hiccup:

Universities have been dropping men’s gymnastics programs since the advent of Title IX in 1972, so this isn’t a new problem, but it’s one accelerated by the pandemic. There were 15 men’s programs competing last season and three — Iowa, Minnesota and William & Mary — have dropped the sport due to budget cuts. That means of the three colleges where Golder has coached, Michigan is the only one that still has a men’s gymnastics program.

“You’re seeing the demise of your sport, to some extent, right in front of your eyes,” Golder said.

You get ten times the money you had twenty years ago. There is no excuse for any Big Ten program to be dropping sports. You know the money is coming back. Interest rates are zero. Borrow and keep your program afloat instead of dropping programs that cost less than one year of absurd Kirk Ferentz bonuses.

Hinton is in. Chris Hinton's parents were amongst the most outspoken about coronavirus concerns this summer, so it's good that they seem to be satisfied:

“I truly believe that if our son were to contract the virus, it won’t be on the football field,” Chris Sr. said. “I think it would be on campus. So with the things that are put into place, I think he’s safer on the football field than he is on campus.”

As for the lack of bye weeks and prep time before the season, Chris Sr. isn’t concerned. He and Mya were in Ann Arbor this week and, through their conversations with Chris Jr., are encouraged by the level at which Michigan has been practicing. “They’ve been training like they’re getting ready for a season,” Chris Sr. said. The Wolverines’ ability to continue full-speed practices (albeit without pads) after the initial cancelation will help them avoid soft-tissue injuries once the season starts, he added.

The unspoken part of "he's safer playing football than being on campus" is "why are people on campus?" But at least someone seems to be doing something reasonably well!

That'll happen. Michigan's schedule difficulty went up quite a bit:

image

Purdue and Northwestern, the two west teams Michigan dropped from the second version of the schedule, are the two biggest beneficiaries.

Also in increasing difficulty:

Rashod Bateman vs Ambry Thomas would have been a great matchup. Rashod Bateman versus Not Ambry Thomas… uh.

Large man still large. Mike Onwenu is still larger than everyone else on the football field:

He's PFF's second-best offensive rookie through week two. Do not look at #1.

Confidence, for men. Deion Sanders is the new head coach of Jacksonville State. His press conferences are already legendary:

May he succeed and provide many more press conferences.

More hockey draft rankings. Scott Wheeler's final 2020 rankings are out at the Athletic. They are biblical in length, with writeups on the top 100 guys, so in addition to the now-familiar takes on Thomas Bordeleau (#33, "imaginative creator who has learned to pick apart teams in the offensive zone with his blend of puck skill, cross-ice vision and ingenuity") and Brendan Brisson (#35, "A-level one-timer … reads and reacts to pressure at one of the highest levels in this draft") we get some details on jack-of-all-trades D Jacob Truscott…

He’s a smart, heady player with the puck who does a good job keeping his shots low and on target and an even better job quickly moving the puck up ice from his own zone. Defensively, though his footwork and gap control could use some work, I like his ability to disrupt defensive zone sequences and make plays back the other way. The time that college will afford him to refine his game will be crucial to his development but I liked what I saw more often than not.

…and class of 2021 D Ethan Edwards:

Edwards is one of the airiest-skating defencemen in this draft, particularly on his edges, where he can close gaps laterally, walk the line or evade pressure with the best players in this class. He will need to get stronger if he wants to add necessary power to his physical, tightly gapped brand or straight-line explosiveness to his already impressive skating technique. … doesn’t turn 18 until June and he won’t join the University of Michigan until 2021 because he still needs some fine-tuning.

Wheeler has Truscott and Edwards in the 3rd or 4th rounds. More on Brisson from NHL's central scouting:

"He's got all the elements there of being a high-end player," Central Scouting's Greg Rajanen said. "He's a really good skater in all directions, and quick in-tight. He makes plays in traffic, has quick hands and a quick release and moves the puck well.

"Most importantly he has high hockey IQ and knows how to slow the game down, which is hard for younger players."

The Athletic's other insanely detailed NHL prospect ranker, Corey Pronman, has a top 122 with Brisson at 14(!)…

He has the slick 1-on-1 skill to beat defenders consistently and make plays in small areas. He’s an extremely creative playmaker who can make a lot of plays off the perimeter and make plays with pace. He improvises very well, making high-end plays under pressure. Brisson is a great passer, but also a great goal-scorer, who scored numerous goals off his one-timer. … limitations in his size and speed.

…and Bordeleau at 33

… high-end playmaker and the puck ran through him on the NTDP power play. He has the patience to let plays develop and find teammates through seams. … hard wrist shot … I’d like to see him attack defensemen more with his skill. … top option to take faceoffs.

Truscott and Edwards do not make his list.

Etc.: Wave of NFL injuries is hypothesized to be a result of unusual covid-induced offseason. Spencer Hall on The Death of Stalin. A tree falls in Houston. The best military crest competition is over. Ben Mathis-Lilley on the reopening.

Comments

WindyCityBlue

September 22nd, 2020 at 2:38 PM ^

I obviously haven't been paying close enough attention, but I don't know why the Big10 is choosing to use an antigen test over a PCR test.  From my experience (which is extensive, although not with COVID specifically), antigen tests are less specific than PCR tests.  I'm guessing that the antigen test specificity is close enough, especially if they conduct tests daily.  And that the antigen test is less expensive, so they could give out tests like candy.

I'll have to do some digging here.

WindyCityBlue

September 22nd, 2020 at 3:18 PM ^

Could be.  I went to a drive-up COVID testing station, which was using a PCR test (don't know the manufacturer), but I got a result in 30 mins.

Testing time has very little to do with the test/machine itself, and more about sample prep and throughput.  PCR (and antigen tests to a certain extent) don't require as much prep time and resources compared to standard serological tests.

Robbie Moore

September 22nd, 2020 at 10:37 PM ^

One of the most tiresome aspects of the whole Covid national nightmare are the endless discussions around testing. I burned out on this months ago.

But the latest Unverified Voracity was redeemed at the very end by these three words "Death of Stalin." One of the great political satires I have ever seen. Not Dr. Strangelove good but nothing ever will be. Cameo alert: Rupert Friend as Stalin's drunkard son Vasili is hilarious.

Joby

September 22nd, 2020 at 3:25 PM ^

MD here. WCB, your assessment appears correct, except that it is the _sensitivity_ (what percentage of the cases does the test detect?) of the test that is of more concern when screening for a condition, which is what the rapid antigen tests do here. They rule conditions out. Specificity (what percentage of negative tests are not cases?) is more important in confirmation of a diagnosis. They rule conditions in.

 

But either way, the antigen test is only between 84 to 97% as sensitive as the RT-PCR test, per the CDC’s guidance issued in early September (for whatever that is worth these days). If those percentages are accurate, however, it’s a decent trade-off for the amount and frequency of testing you can get done.

bluebyyou

September 22nd, 2020 at 4:06 PM ^

Non-MD here but not totally ignorant about medicine. I have a question for some of you folks with more knowledge of this subject area. For antigen testing to be effective you have to have developed antibodies and typically that takes time.  Can you be contagious prior to having a sufficiently high level of antibodies to yield a positive result on this test?  If the answer is yes, then you could already be sick, spread infection, and read negative?

I've read some of the Abbot Lab info on its website but couldn't find specific info about this.

WindyCityBlue

September 22nd, 2020 at 4:21 PM ^

Disclaimer: started by post-Michigan UG career in Abbott Diagnostics R&D.

PCR tests the genomic material (i.e. RNA, etc) inside the virus, and antigen tests specific receptors on the outside shell of the virus.  Antigen is really just short for "antibody generating", so antigens come first, then IgM antibodies (which last up to a month), then IgG antibodies (which last for years depending on the disease).

So yes, you can be contagious prior to having antibodies.  That is the benefit of PCR and antigen tests, you get to understand the state of affairs much earlier, before you have antibodies of any type.  However, after the COVID runs its course and is eradicated from your body, the only way of knowing that you had it is via antibody tests.  All types of tests have its benefits at different stages of infection (or thereafter).

bluebyyou

September 22nd, 2020 at 5:04 PM ^

Your answer is exactly what I got from a friend whom I called after posting my question with the friend being a very bright ER doc.,  So, in essence, all this daily testing is going to tell us, if positive, is that someone testing positive has already had CV19 long enough to develop antibodies and that that person may or may not still be contagious. If positive, and assuming the antigen test was valid, a PCR test can then be administered to determine if the infection is active.

 

WindyCityBlue

September 22nd, 2020 at 5:19 PM ^

It hasn't been entirely clear if they gave folks antibody tests, but I think its safe to assume that they have.

The antigen testing (if positive) will tell us well before antibodies are generating.  So, the more I research, the more I'm liking the antigen testing approach.  You'll find out very early if someone has COVID or not (unlike antibody tests) within a sweet spot of specificity, price and timing.

TrueBlue2003

September 22nd, 2020 at 3:59 PM ^

I was surprised to read this NW team physicians assertion that they'd be able to detect infections before they're even contagious.  I also thought antigen tests weren't as sensitive and thus wouldn't be able to do this.

But I've been hearing that PCR tests are now often considered too sensitive, i.e. they're picking up positive cases for people that aren't and may never be contagious (although impossible to know where in the infection curve you've tested just based on one test).

Perhaps there's space there for the antigen test to be less sensitive than PCR but still sensitive enough to catch most cases before contagiousness.

UMBSnMBA

September 22nd, 2020 at 5:39 PM ^

The antigen tests are sensitive enough to pick up an infection 1 - 2 days before a person is contagious.  That's why daily testing is necessary.  The PCR test can pick it up even sooner, but results are currently taking as long as a week so people who have been tested can become contagious before they get their results.

PCR tests should only go through a max of 30 or so amplification cycles or they can start to throw off an unacceptably large number of false positives (especially if you are testing people without symptoms.)  At least one manufacturer defaults to 37 amplification cycles (Abbott?) and others do more than 40.  

Jkidd49

September 22nd, 2020 at 2:56 PM ^

still not sure i see the upside in Thomas and Collins remaining out.  The margin increase in potential injury vs the access to immediate testing and additional exposure / practice seem like a worthwhile bet if you end goal in being a high draft pick.

bronxblue

September 22nd, 2020 at 2:57 PM ^

I don't buy for a second that the rapid testing suddenly changed the calculus for the Big 10.  Those were in the works for months and had been discussed; if the conference was just worried about the speed of testing then they could have stayed that concern over the past couple of months and said something along the lines of "we're pausing until we have better testing".  

Plus, how expensive/valuable a resource are these MRI machines?  I honestly don't know if there's a backlog or how expensive it is to use one, but it again feels like a lot of money is being spent so that schools can justify exposing athletes to a disease for our entertainment.  

Again, just say you wanted to open games back up because some of the schools brought students back and the presidents didn't want to keep being yelled at by the fans.  That's a perfectly fine, if cynical, answer.   But another thousand people died yesterday from the virus and cases are starting to rise again.  So I have my doubts that the actual medical outlook has fundamentally changed, and this whitewashing by media types just feels like gaslighting a bit 

username03

September 22nd, 2020 at 3:05 PM ^

On campus testing was always an option for the big ten. See Illinois or UAB for campus wide examples, football only is a layup. Partnering with a private company or a hospital as they did to access MRI machines was also always an option. The testing and medical outlook has not changed at all, the everybody didn't follow our lead outlook was significantly altered though.

WindyCityBlue

September 22nd, 2020 at 3:35 PM ^

According to Worldometer, he had a little over 500 deaths yesterday, and the trend is showing a decent decline trend.  And still college football players age group are some of the least risky.  Also, I wouldn't look at cases that much anymore since we have far more testing than before which would naturally make positive case volume increase.

If what they say is true, in that this antigen test is cheaper and can get results in matter of minutes, then it could be construed that football players are now far more safe in the control of a Big10 football program than not.

trueblueintexas

September 22nd, 2020 at 4:31 PM ^

I don't understand the statement about football players being more safe playing football than not. Football takes up only part of the day. The rest of the day the players still have to make the right choices to stay safe. 

If the argument is the players are getting better testing than the student body thus limiting the spread of infection, fine. However then there are larger discussions which should be had, but not here on this blog. 

bronxblue

September 22nd, 2020 at 5:13 PM ^

I don't get the line of reasoning that we should ignore testing numbers because we test a lot.  Ignoring a problem doesn't actually make it less of one you have to deal with.  And while I'll admit to being off about the 1k dead yesterday, claiming it's on a downward trend seems dubious at best.  For example, they list 384 deaths yesterday and 703 today.  And the actual death rate for the past 30 days looks like this:

There's a slight decrease but it mostly looks like we just have inconsistent reporting based on the day of the week.  Unless people are dying according to some internal calendar we aren't aware of.

As for players being safer because of testing, sure.  That's logical but isn't particularly astute - if you tested everyone on campus then you'd make the whole school body, including the players, safer.   But football players play and practice football for a couple of hours a day; even if we acknowledge that they'll also be spending time doing football-adjacent things, there are still gobs of the day where they are in the larger school community as much as any other student.  

WindyCityBlue

September 22nd, 2020 at 5:33 PM ^

I never said ignore the data.  All I'm saying that case volume numbers these days, when viewed in a vacuum, don't mean much.  It is an absolutely true and scientific (i.e. non-biased) stance to say that the more you test, the more positive cases you'll get.  In fact, I think getting more positive cases is a good sign for us, in that it tells us the true extent of the situation and that we can address it more appropriately. 

Knowing this, if the approach is to "flatten the curve", then positive cases are less significant than hospitalizations and deaths (i.e. can our healthcare system handle the case volume?).  The later 2 pieces of data are showing good signs that we have in fact flattened the curve.   

"But football players play and practice football for a couple of hours a day; even if we acknowledge that they'll also be spending time doing football-adjacent things, there are still gobs of the day where they are in the larger school community as much as any other student."

See my reply above.  The fact that they are testing the football players everyday is great and isn't impacted by the fact they interact with other students gobs of the day.  Testing everyday, combined with contact tracing, will actually help us find other non-football player students who may have COVID.

bronxblue

September 22nd, 2020 at 8:56 PM ^

Getting more positive tests doesn't help you get a handle on the disease if, as a country, we then continue to act in ways that simply allow the disease to spread unchecked.  And honestly, the positivity rate for COVID-19 testing is distressingly high and consistent compared to other countries (for example, the US's positive rate the past 30 days remains around 5%, while countries like Germany, Italy, UK are half that or less).  And while the US in aggregate tests a fair number because of the number of citizens (about 2.4 tests/thousand), that rate is similar to ones you see in most of Europe so it's not like other countries have simply stopped looking.  

Flattening the curve was supposed to stop explosive outbreaks that overwhelm medical systems and that has been pretty effective, but the secondary goal was to effectively limit the spread of the disease by letting people know they are infected, contact tracing from that point, and then quarantining.  Those latter two elements haven't happened with any consistency, and that's allowed this disease to continue to spread at a decent clip.

Your response to an earlier post said:

I'm making the assumption (which I think is a safe assumption) that when they are NOT under the control of the football program, they will NOT get tested daily.  So whatever choices they make after practice will be tested everyday (which includes contact tracing, transparency, etc.).

I don't quite get your argument here - so if they aren't around the team they won't be tested, but then daily they will be?  As for contact tracing, it won't be as effective because the school/teams will likely only focus on people the athlete got in contact with in the interim between negative and positive tests, though based on the incubation time and the sensitivity of the tests it's likely true that the athlete contracted the disease a couple of days earlier from someone not on the team (or at least 1 person did).  Perhaps they'll try to track those people down but even if they do it would likely be days since the person was able to spread the disease and so much of the damage has been done.  This might be more theoretical than not, but my guess is these tests will help to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 on the football team and staff and do little to help the larger community in a meaningful way.

WindyCityBlue

September 22nd, 2020 at 10:26 PM ^

Ok. So the number of people who have/had COVID is likely a lot higher than what is being reported by the testing numbers.  I’ve seen reports as high as 80% of cases are asymptomatic, of which a good portion of these folks (maybe even most) never get tested simply because they have no symptoms and have no need to get tested. So these folks never make into the numbers, but still can be contagious. 
 

This is similar in other countries as well, whereby they just don’t know who has/had COVID and never was tested. That is the main reason why the positive case volume is almost meaningless by itself. And almost completely meaningless if you’re trying to make it competition with other countries. It’s an apples to oranges comparison. 

You can get distressed all you want regarding the number of cases. I’m not. I’d like to see testing to continue to increase, where positive case volume will increase in kind and we can get a better grasp of things. 
 

So, what’s my point? Well, the number of positive cases if probably the most inexact number in all this.  Whereas, hospitalizations and deaths are far more exact (but not perfect). Focus on those last 2 data points. 
 

Lastly, I’ll clarify my previous post you copied.  What I mean by “NOT under the control of the football program” is the scenario where there is no football at all (ie a cancelled season) and they mix/mingle with the general public without daily testing. Now that we are having football, they will get daily testing which is much more preferable than the lack of control under a cancelled season scenario.

Mercury Hayes

September 22nd, 2020 at 3:00 PM ^

Can someone share the status of Ambry? Have he or Nico said anything since the restart? We had great momentum last week with Paye and Mayfield. Would like to learn more if anyone has details.

michengin87

September 22nd, 2020 at 3:02 PM ^

Sounds like the B1G is doing everything it can to make these players safe, and possibly even safer than not playing by some people's estimation.  Wonder if Christine Brennan will retract her statement or at least provide an update with salient facts.  Well, I guess her article does start out with the word, Opinion, so that provides all the leeway she needs to write whatever she pleases.

I actually think this can be the Big Ten's shining hour if (big if) this process actually works and we are able to play a significant number of games.  Now, that would be showing everyone that we don't need to cower in fear but that science can help us navigate our way through this pandemic.

BornInA2

September 22nd, 2020 at 3:03 PM ^

These benefits and treatments should be provided to ALL front-line medical workers before they are used up so kids can play an entirely optional game.

This country's priorities are way the fuck out of whack.

Kilgore Trout

September 22nd, 2020 at 3:31 PM ^

So if Michigan plays the Empire Classic and the B1G/ACC challenge, that leaves them with just five other NC games. I count 5 D1 teams within a 1.5 hour bus ride (EMU, Detroit, Oakland, Toledo, Bowling Green). Wonder if they will just try to play those teams to keep it simple from a cost and exposure standpoint.  

Teeba

September 22nd, 2020 at 4:00 PM ^

People are safer on campus than off campus, at least that's the lesson I learned comparing MSU and UofM positive cases. For the three weeks of 8/31, 9/7, and 9/14, MSU has 495 cases. For the three weeks of 8/30, 9/6, and 9/13, UofM has 108 cases. I'm not sure why weeks start on different days at the two schools, but the data is here in case you're interested:

https://msu.edu/together-we-will/testing-reporting/

https://campusblueprint.umich.edu/dashboard/

I would much rather have my child living in a dorm with a janitorial staff than in an off-campus house without a janitorial staff.

Brimley

September 22nd, 2020 at 4:50 PM ^

Spencer is absolutely right about The Death of Stalin.  It's hard to believe that a movie about a mass murdering, gulag abusing regime could be so hilarious.