First Look: 2017 Offense

Submitted by Brian on January 12th, 2017 at 1:21 PM

DEPARTURES IN ORDER OF SIGNIFICANCE.

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[Bryan Fuller]

  1. TE Jake Butt. Mackey win might have been a career award but it was warranted in that context. Sure handed, huge catching radius threat. Blocking indifferent. Butt will be missed by more than last name aficionados. 69% catch rate is nuts. He's off to the second round of the draft unless people are spooked by a bowl-game ACL tear.
  2. WR Amara Darboh. Delivered on Jim Harbaugh's assertions that he was Michigan's best receiver with an All Big Ten year. Still left you wanting a bit more, though, as he had multiple opportunities to bail Wilton Speight out of iffy throws and took few of them during Michigan's unfortunate finish.
  3. RT Erik Magnuson. Quiet, steady performer at tackle. Was never a star and I'm a little dubious of people projecting him on day two in the draft, but if Michigan had five Erik Magnusons the year ends very differently. Alas.
  4. WR Jehu Chesson. Never recaptured his stellar late 2015 form as a senior. Still moderately productive, but only that. Speed did not translate into downfield production, or even many targets. Those went to Darboh, with iffy success.
  5. RB De'Veon Smith. Workhorse back had solid season. Detractors will point to middling YPC (4.7) relative to the rest of the platoon; this is unfair since Smith got all the short yardage work and was often making yards on his own just to get to that number. Pass protection dipped in senior year.
  6. LT Ben Braden. Pressed into service at left tackle after Grant Newsome's injury, where he was neither as bad as expected nor actually good. Reduced his tendency to lean on guys as his career went on but never fully excised that from his game. Draft chatter minimal, understandably.
  7. RG Kyle Kalis. Promising start to senior season submarined by a recurrence of mental errors and then just straight up getting crushed by top-level interior pass rushers. Extravagantly whipped by Jaleel Johnson, Nick Bosa, and DeMarcus Walker in Michigan's losses. I will never say "it can't get worse" in reference to a Michigan offensive line again, but Kalis seems eminently replaceable.
  8. RB/QB Jabrill Peppers. Offensive output was minimal after wildcat QB business was diagnosed. Effective decoy mostly.
  9. QB Shane Morris. Never found playing time and is taking a grad transfer.
  10. OL David Dawson. Announced a grad transfer even before spring practice, further emphasizing how thin Michigan was on the OL this year: either he or the coaches didn't think he had any shot at a job this fall.

WHAT'S LEFT

 

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[Fuller]

  1. OL Mason Cole. Move to center went relatively well, though I was less into him than PFF was. Had difficulty moving large nose tackle types and didn't get to do much operating in space, oddly. Pass protection was very good once he was removed from edge types, and I might be expecting to much. He had an NFL decision to make at a spot that usually doesn't see a ton of guys go.
  2. QB Wilton Speight. Debut season was solid statistically: 7.7 YPA, 62% completions, 18-7 TD-INT, third in the Big Ten in passer rating, 29th passing O in S&P+. Michigan's sack rate allowed was pretty good (27th) largely because of Speight's excellent pocket presence. Late wobbles leave the door open a crack for Brandon Peters.
  3. The rest of the running back platoon. Chris Evans will headline after the bowl game touchdown; Ty Isaac and Karan Higdon also had their moments. Evans is a jittery speedster who promises to hit the home runs Smith could not. Higdon will probably pick up most of the mooseback work since he's a low-to-the-ground guy who runs behinds his pads, as they say. Isaac's never had it click, really, but played well in relatively limited opportunities last year.
  4. OL Ben Bredeson. Flat out bad most of the year, because he was a true freshman. Should get a lot better, whether it's at guard or tackle. Honestly we should just forget about this season entirely when it comes to projecting him down the road.
  5. FBs Henry Poggi and Khalid Hill. FB duo was quite a dichotomy. Hill led the team in touchdowns and paved various players on spectacular edge two-for-one blocks while catching 89% of the balls that came his way. Poggi was not the threat as a receiver or runner and was substantially below average as a blocker. Despite this the two FBs split time about down the middle.
  6. Kaiju. Devin Asiasi and Tyrone Wheatley Jr were mostly blockers. Both were up and down, as freshmen tend to be, flashing A+ power while occasionally falling off dudes. They were not targeted often but made the most of their opportunities. With Butt's absence Michigan will rely more heavily on both; the potential for a Leap from one or both entices.
  7. TE Ian Bunting. Looked like Butt 2.0 on a slick seam catch in the bowl game, and also looked like Butt 2.0 when he gave up a comically easy sack a few plays later. Previous bullet makes his role in the offense somewhat in question
  8. (Probably) WR Grant Perry. Legal troubles probably get pled down to misdemeanors and allow him to stay on the team. Slippery slot receiver will have a role if still around.
  9. RB Drake Johnson. Star-crossed running back lost last season to a forklift accident and will apply for a sixth year. Fast straight-line runner who will find a role.
  10. OL Juwann Bushell-Beatty. Temporarily the LT after Newsome left. Displaced after struggling mightily.

WHAT'S NEW, OR CLOSE ENOUGH, ANYWAY

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Bredeson is a returning starter, sort of[Fuller]

 

Basically the whole offensive line. For purposes of this bullet we're pretending freshman Ben Bredeson and not freshman Ben Bredeson are different people, because we need that to be the case. Michigan needs to replace three starters and get a transformation from the aforementioned; this is a lot of turnover. Mike Onwenu is penciled in at right guard and unlikely to be dislodged by anything short of a supernova; Bredeson will start somewhere. Cole exists. The other two spots are anyone's guess.

Ditto the receivers. Michigan got some good blocking, one bad drop, and one badass catch from Kekoa Crawford this year; Eddie McDoom took a bunch of jet sweeps and had one nice slant catch; Drake Harris was targeted deep several times, all of those incompletions except for one sweet catch invalidated by an unnecessary offensive pass interference call. That is the sum total of returning experience for the WR corps.

Tight ends in a post-Butt world. Ton of potential at the spot; probably fine; need to see that potential develop.

WHAT'S ROD STEWART 1977

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[Fuller]

Probably Wilton Speight. Speight's 2016 did not have the clear takeoff narrative that Jake Rudock did. He was great for a couple games early, then bad, then indifferent, then awesome after the bye week until he turned into a pumpkin a third of the way through Iowa. He was terrific against Ohio State despite an injury that seemed to prevent him from throwing it downfield whatsoever... except for two turnovers 100% on him that lost the game. He gets an incomplete for the Orange Bowl since every time he dropped back he was beset by hounds instantly.

It would be much easier to draw an upward arrow if he'd packed the bad stuff in early and then got a lot better; unfortunately that is not the case. I'm still a Speight optimist for three reasons:

  1. Harbaugh. This should be self-explanatory but if you need a refresher here's the QB season preview.
  2. Speight seems to have the hardest thing down: pocket presence. His ability to turn garbage into first downs is exceptional for a guy his size.
  3. His good periods came after an opportunity to take a breather and focus on the things Harbaugh was coaching him to do. Speight was hot at the beginning of the season, after the bye, and after he missed the Indiana game. As we go along here he should be more that guy than the one who forgot and reverted to high school/Borges stuff when the heat got turned up.

Also, redshirt sophomores generally get better. It's not a big step from where he's currently at to an All Big Ten type season.

The three to five horsemen. I really like Chris Evans and Karan Higdon, and with Johnson, Isaac, Kareem Walker, and O'Maury Samuels also available this looks set to be a very deep and good running back crew. It may lack the out and out star that Najee Harris would have provided; I'm not stressing about the ballcarriers not getting what they should. All three returners graded significantly positively on PFF (relative to workload).

Blocky/catchy blocking. If one or both Kaiju takes a Williams-esque step forward and Hill gets most of the fullback work, Michigan's ability to generate yards off tackle will take a big step forward. Butt was an excellent player overall; he was average-at-best as a blocker.

WHAT'S ROD STEWART 2017

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Newsome's injury recover is critical [Bill Rapai]

Tackle. Hoke's OL recruiting was, in a word, disastrous. Michigan enters 2017 with exactly one Hoke-recruited OT: Bushell-Beatty. That means Michigan will have to do two of the following:

  • Get Grant Newsome back from a terrifying injury that kept him in the hospital for over a month. (FWIW, there's been some chatter that Newsome's injury doesn't have an unusually lengthy prognosis despite the hospital stay.)
  • Move Mason Cole back to the tackle spot he couldn't pass protect at.
  • Move Ben Bredeson out to tackle, where he might have the same issues Cole does.
  • Start Bushell-Beatty, who got beat up by Rutgers last year.
  • Start Nolan Ulizio, a low-rated redshirt sophomore.
  • Start a true freshman.

Two of those options might work out really well. But probably not.

 

 

WHAT'S HEISENBERG ROD STEWART UNCERTAINTY

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[Patrick Barron]

The guys on the end of Speight passes. Young receivers are usually bad. Of late, however, you're seeing a couple guys a year break through as true freshmen. Michigan has a couple of candidates in the 2017 class. Both Tarik Black and Donovan Peoples-Jones enrolled early, and both seem like sharp guys who will pick up the offense quickly. Add those guys to the McDoom/Crawford/Johnson troika that the coaching staff is high on and Drake Harris and it's not too hard to see Michigan being at least as good as they were this year.

Or they could be first-and-second year guys and run into each other on the regular. Ask again later.

Meanwhile, Michigan has a solid candidate to do Butt stuff in Ian Bunting. Still a difficult ask for anyone to live up to Butt's ability to reel in anything in his area.

The interior OL. At guard, a dropoff is unlikely from a true freshman and a guy who ended up –12 on the season per PFF. Michigan needs to do much more than tread water, though. Mike Onwenu is a unique prospect at one spot, and Bredeson will either be a lot better... or playing tackle, and then the other guard spot is a series of question marks. Cole stabilizes; whether or not these guys are any good is still very much an open question.

The Pep effect. Is Pep Hamilton an upgrade on Jedd Fisch? Does it even matter when Harbaugh's running things?

MANDATORY WILD ASS GUESS

Another mediocre season is in the offing unless Michigan gets a Christmas miracle an the offensive line that will probably feature one upperclassman and is 50/50 to sport another true freshman. That is a tough hill to climb for anyone. The skill positions should be good but are likely a year away from being able to offer win-games-on-our-own help—again Michigan is all but devoid of upperclassmen.

A projected Speight uptick is the main reason for optimism; it's asking a lot of him to be Andrew Luck in an environment where he's going to be running away an awful lot.

The good news is good news about 2018, when Michigan loses only a few projected contributors: Mason Cole, the fullbacks, Drake Johnson, and Ty Isaac. Whatever they find this year will enter 2018 just about unscathed.

Comments

NY-Wolverine8601

January 12th, 2017 at 1:27 PM ^

Word on the street is Drevno may leave for WMU head coaching job. Harbaugh may have to replace whole Offensive Coordinator head staff... oh boy... Pep was a great replacement, hope we get a real OL coach. Pep has got the skilled players under control.

maize-blue

January 12th, 2017 at 1:31 PM ^

My WAG is that Ruiz is a starter. I like the idea of him playing Guard this season. I also guess that the O line will be better and Walker will be the #1 RB along with Evans.

The WR's will be fine.

NY-Wolverine8601

January 12th, 2017 at 1:42 PM ^

I keep seeing people post positive things about Newsome being able to play next year. My source in the hospital said the injury almost killed him and that in all likelihood he would not play another down again. If he does play, he is a true worrier and damn near a miracle. Just keep that in mind, his injury was that bad.

pescadero

January 12th, 2017 at 4:06 PM ^

Your "source in the hospital" just committed a massive HIPAA violation

 

Not necessarily. He may not be a "covered enttity". He may have just seen something a "covered entity" was supposed to keep private.

 

and is subject to prosecution.

 

Nope. HIPAA is not a criminal statute and violating it doen't open one to prosecution. Violating HIPAA opens one to a civil suit.

 

And so, potentially, are you.

 

Nope. Only a "covered entity" is subject to suit. Anyone a "covered entity" blabbed to is free and clear to disseminate the information far and wide.

StayThirsty85

January 12th, 2017 at 6:13 PM ^

...but further I believe that in addition to a civil suit (and not criminal prosecution) as you clarify, wouldn't the primary concern be enforcement (fines and/or citations) from US HHS, against the source's employer (UMHS), if the source is an employee of the "covered entity" (e.g., the hospital/health care system), no?

In other words, the source's employer could get cited and fined (HHS HIPAA fines can be huge), and I bet the source-person could be sanctioned by his/her "covered entity" employer for the HIPAA violation per his/her own Employment Agreement.

...In any case, yeah I think on topics throughout the site our zeal for information and opinion can quickly (though not maliciously) cross that line from a passion for info on our team to uncomfortable public discussion of 18- to 22-year olds' medical, academic, behavioral and/or personal (real or "hearsayed") situations.  ...So many interesting life lessons from Michigan football, and it never ends no matter how old one is!  ;)

StayThirsty85

January 12th, 2017 at 3:42 PM ^

...I've actually often wondered why a college football coach is allowed to step up to a podium in front of TV cameras and say things like "Well, the results of his MRI last night show that JoJo's got a partial tear in the ACL of his right knee..."

...when I have to sign a form and produce a driver's license in order for the gal at the doctor's office to tell me the results of my own cholesterol test.

TrueBlue2003

January 12th, 2017 at 3:51 PM ^

HIPAA applies to medical professionals only.  If the patient shares information willingly and without non-disclosure (i.e. a player to a coach), I assume that's what makes it all good here.  

Like if my friend tells me his wife is pregnant, I'm not restricted from telling other people by HIPAA (I hope).  That would get crazy.

stephenrjking

January 12th, 2017 at 3:54 PM ^

I've wondered about the legal groundwork for this, but my guess is that players have officially authorized the team to know about their status, and that the team is under no such restriction regarding the sharing of information. Remember, the team is usually involved with the rehab. 

This does not necessarily apply to other medical treatment the player receives, but the stuff through the team received due to injury does seem to be understood to be fair game.

Non-game stuff can be different. Remember the Jason Pierre-Paul situation? I think he didn't want to disclose the extent of his injury, and it caused some issues.

StayThirsty85

January 12th, 2017 at 4:22 PM ^

... I had figured from the players' end that such a waiver would be part of their scholarship/enrollment/etc. paperwork signed; but further, I realize that as you guys point out, the coach would not be a "covered entity" under HIPAA... further complemented by the superb article at the utah.edu link, exploring the murkiness of the "covered entity"/sports-fans-expectations-to-know issues, complete with reference of the JPP case noted above.

So now, my longstanding question has been answered, thank you!

That's why I do love this site and our extended university family, whereas side-topic information on Eleven Warriors includes learning such as "Preferred Squirrel Kill-Shot Locations for Subsequent Taxidermy," or "Cinderblocks vs. Jacks: Choosing Your Ideal Support Option for Non-Running Vehicle Front Yard Display."

Michigan4Life

January 12th, 2017 at 2:07 PM ^

even if they're "ready" to play right away isn't always the best thing to do because they tend to struggle a lot. Bredeson was a mixed bag. He was solid and bad throughout the season.

I much rather not have a true freshman start at OL and Michigan is in trouble if that comes down to it.

Moonlight Graham

January 12th, 2017 at 1:35 PM ^

I think you mean 2018 in the last paragraph. 

Glad to hear maybe positive Newsome prognosis. 

I think they need to scour the countryside for a grad transfer OL of any kind, even C or G and then move things around, even if Bredeson and Cole are the tackles. 

Everyone Murders

January 12th, 2017 at 2:03 PM ^

I get that any crime that gets labeled "sexual" is inherently toxic to a program's image.  I also agree that LTT should find greener pastures.

However, equating LTT's crime with the (seemingly credible) accusations against Gibbons?  That seems grossly unfair to LTT.  The offenses are, in my mind at least, miles apart.

Rabbit21

January 12th, 2017 at 2:13 PM ^

I agree, but there are going to be some(especially whoever the dude was that was a bulldog on the Gibbons thing) that will seize on it and run with it.  I'm just making a point about optics and maintaining the program image vs. trying to draw any equivalence between the two.

Everyone Murders

January 12th, 2017 at 2:22 PM ^

That makes sense - I may have jumped ye olde judgment gun.  I do that now and again, so I'm sorry about that.

As you say, the optics of bringing LTT back should be reason enough to point him elsewhere.  Especially since he got his degree and has an opportunity to play elsewhere.

Best for all concerned that LTT conclude his CFB career elsewhere.

reshp1

January 12th, 2017 at 2:03 PM ^

Not necessarily. He was dismissed pretty quickly. Details came out much later, at least publicly. There's a chance the decision was made without knowing what we know now. 

I'm guessing the answer is still no though.

TrueBlue2003

January 12th, 2017 at 2:21 PM ^

that we'd bring him back, your logic may not apply.  

At the time he was dismissed, M obviously thought the risk was enough that they didn't want to take the second chance, even if they thought there was a chance the young man righted the ship.  Now that he seems to have done that, it could be plausible that they would take him back in what is now a less risky situation.

yossarians tree

January 12th, 2017 at 1:35 PM ^

Looks like a thrilling, roller-coaster ride season as Harbaugh and staff get to start playing with their new toys. By 2018 this thing should start looking like the Death Star we all expect.

TrueBlue2003

January 12th, 2017 at 2:07 PM ^

60+ and 70+ against the dregs of the schedule will help your averages out, but doesn't really mean that much when you're terrible against good defenses.  We had a great game against an injury-riddled PSU team, but other than that, we struggled severely against the four best defenses we played.  Like train wreck bad.