It's #HateWeek yet again, ahead of one of the biggest editions of The Game in memory. Two 11-0 teams going at it for the second straight year. Does it get any better than this in college football? I don't think so. 

 

The Film: As in past seasons, I am charting Ohio State's offense against Penn State's defense because the Nittanys have the best defense OSU has played to date. However, I will also be incorporating plenty of film from other games. I previously used Ohio State footage for both Maryland and Purdue, so I have some of those clips in the back pocket. I also re-watched the Notre Dame game this week and will be splicing in some clips and insight from that game as well. In other words, I've been watching Ohio State all season and have 11 weeks worth of takes and clips to use. 

Personnel: Click for big. 

After two years of facing CJ Stroud, Michigan will now take on a new QB in Kyle McCord, who got cursory mention back in the 2021 FFFF as Stroud's backup, since he had started one game that season. McCord was just a juvenile true freshman back then; now he's a grown up junior. McCord is not Stroud, as he's never going to be one of the best rookie QBs in NFL history. But he is a good college QB who has facilitated a successful offense and generally been pretty accurate. There are some concerning mistakes that pop up, but a lot more good than bad and he will rightfully earn All-B1G honors. 

The running back position has featured the triumphant return of TreVeyon Henderson, who is finally looking healthy and back to what he was when he was an electric true freshman I was terrified about in 2021. Henderson is not always the most deceptive or toughest runner, but he is a home run hitter who can turn one missed tackle into a touchdown from anywhere on the field. With Miyan Williams out for the year, the power back is Chip Trayanum, a transfer from Arizona State who spent a strange amount of time as a linebacker on Ohio State's roster. He's best as an RB and is the textbook definition of a bowling ball, tough to bring down with just one defender. I expect Ohio State to lean on these two, but if they go to a third back, I expect it would be Dallan Hayden, a respectable sophomore. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: a long breakdown]

For years, Ohio State's receiving group has been the highlight of the offense and that's no different this year. It isn't as dangerous of a unit as it was in 2021 (not sure anything will ever reach that level again), but it's right on par with 2022. Emeka Egbuka is back healthy and seems destined to go in the first couple rounds of the NFL Draft, while Marvin Harrison Jr. needs no introduction. The superstar is playing for a crack at the Heisman on Saturday and the only question about his pro potential is where in the top five(ish) picks of April's draft he will be selected.

There's a sizable drop-off from the top two, Julian Fleming being the third name. Fleming was the #1 WR in the country in his recruiting class (2020) but has not developed into a player worthy of pro attention like MHJ or Egbuka. He's mostly just a guy. True freshman Carnell Tate was a 5* himself and will probably be the next Dude Brian Hartline sends to the NFL, but he's probably a year away from that status. For now he's also more guy than Dude. Xavier Johnson is the old man of the offense, a 6th year player who doesn't play a large role in the passing game but is a designated jet sweep/end-around guy. He's fine in that capacity. 

With the WR3 spot being a bit lackluster, usage of the tight end position has increased. I am a bit unsure of Cade Stover's abilities as a blocker (run blocking specifically), but he has impressed as a quality receiving option this season. Ohio State had neglected their TEs in past years, but Stover is now a feature part of the passing offense and will be an interesting schematic matchup for Michigan. Ohio State played out of 12 personnel a bit more in the game I charted than they had in the past, which meant more opportunities for Gee Scott. Scott was last seen in an edition of The Game getting a 15 yard penalty for headbutting a Michigan player, which he will hopefully avoid doing this season. As for his on-field play in 2023, he isn't used a ton as a receiver and has been a rather lackluster blocker, earning him an all-around cyan. 

The offensive line was the biggest question on the Ohio State team coming into the 2023 season and it has been an uneven performance at times, but perhaps better than some expected. The weakest link is their center, Carson Hinzmann. Forced into action sooner than OSU probably wanted due to the early departure of Luke Wypler, Hinzmann seriously struggled in the tape I reviewed. He's young and could improve, but for now it's a problem spot. The guards are both returners, Donovan Jackson at LG and Matthew Jones at RG. I think both players are fine, but neither wow me.

The tackles are both new starters, SDSU transfer Josh Simmons at LT and Josh Fryar at RT. Both of these players lack the blue chip recruiting pedigree that the rest of the roster has and their limitations have been shown, but both have been more solid than I expected. There aren't any true stars on this OL, but it's not terrible and they've improved as a run blocking unit as the year has gone along. The OL has been very healthy this season, which is good because the depth is rather weak and unproven, with Tr Fr Luke Montgomery the top backup at T and veteran Enokk Vimahi the 6th man at G. 

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Spread, pro-style, or hybrid: Ohio State is a spread offense, but the following chart isn't a great representation of them: 

Formation	Run	PA	Pass	Total
Shotgun	35	9	29	98.6%
Under Center	1	--	--	1.4%

They were almost entirely shotgun against PSU, when typically they play under center a decent amount each week. Not a ton, but more than one snap. Last year I had them at an 88%/12% distribution gun vs. under center and that feels a little bit closer to reality, though the actual clip may be a bit more under center favorable than that. As for play type by down, they had some VERY clear tendencies against Penn State: 

Down	Run	Pass
1st	26	6
2nd	6	19
3rd	4	12
4th	-	1

Run on first down, pass on second and third down, rinse and repeat. Last season they were decisively tilted to the pass on 1st down and more balanced on 2nd down before pass-heavy on 3rd down. The shift more towards the run would logically correspond with not having a superstar, NFL-caliber QB. 

Base set: As normal, Ohio State is playing out of 11 personnel primarily. It can look like this: 

Or like this, with Stover lined up in the slot for more of a 4 wide look: 

12 personnel wasn't used a ton, but I charted nearly 2x as many snaps with that look this year against PSU than OSU's game against the Nittany Lions last year: 

I-Formation does come out in the red zone: 

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL: This is a major area of discussion with regards to Ohio State. For years, Ryan Day has adored zone stretch to the boundary, a strange obsession because the play never ever worked. It brought chagrin to the film-watching, scheme interested Buckeye fans, which is why it was a delight for Ross Fulton to tweet this: 

OSU has gone from being a stretch team to a weak IZ/counter OH team

— Ross Fulton (@RossRFulton) November 12, 2023

The zone stretch stuff was already going away by the PSU game, which I charted (I counted one stretch play), and has now vanished entirely. Ohio State is now running more gap plays and having increased effectiveness with it, mixing in split zone as well in addition to inside zone. The Bucks are still a Basketball on Grass team in base but there is more trickery and more variation in this component than there was previously. They are running counter and even had a pin & pull against Penn State, variation that was non-existent in the games I charted last year. 

Hurry it up or grind it out: The Buckeyes have used tempo more than any other team on Michigan's schedule this season. They're not a lightning quick team but they move at a pretty deliberate pace and pepper in tempo snaps. I counted at least a half-dozen against PSU, so that's something Michigan will have to be ready for given how much they like to substitute. Ohio State is going to work quickly at times to keep the Michigan defense off balance and when they're not working fast, they aren't going to be meandering. 

Quarterback Dilithium Rating (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): When I watched Kyle McCord in the spring game, one of my thoughts was "I think they will be able to use his legs more than they did CJ Stroud". He seemed willing to scramble if his reads weren't open or the pocket was breaking down and given Stroud's hesitancy to ever do that (well, except when he figured it out against UGA and translated that into NFL stardom), I thought it would be a way for McCord to make the offense work while he would be an obviously worse passer than Stroud. Turns out, no. McCord has 31 rushing attempts this season for -62 yards, including sacks. Taking out the sacks, he has rushed 18 times for 36 yards, coming out to 1.6 rush attempts per game for just over three yards per game. Nothin'! 

In the game I charted against Penn State, I didn't record McCord scrambling once (box score confirms: his only two carries were the sacks). Against Notre Dame he rushed three times (non-sack), with this one being his best: 

Five yards. McCord is not a tremendous athlete but he isn't Jared Goff slow. I think there's the ability to use it more, but the fact they used Devin Brown (pre-injury) in the goal line rushing package says a lot about what they think McCord's skillset is. It's possible that he could run more against Michigan for trickiness sake, but I said that about Stroud two years in a row and neither year did it come true. McCord doesn't extend plays in either magician or disaster fashion like Taulia Tagovailoa, a much more traditional pocket passer. 

They did draw up opportunities for him to run in the spring game: 

But it hasn't come out much in games. I wanted to put that clip in for the sake of showing it, but McCord hasn't flashed it much this season and when mixed with his so-so athleticism, I'll mark him a 4. Better than I rated Drew Allar because McCord isn't quite as stiff, but the amount they run is similar (not a lot). 

Dangerman: To the surprise of no one, WR Marvin Harrison Jr. is the Dangerman for the second consecutive year. One of the best WRs to come through the NCAA, Harrison is a true superstar. If you leave him in single coverage without safety help, you're asking for trouble: 

If you roll out the Don Brown defense with bottom tier corners, MHJ will eat you for lunch: 

Marvin Harrison Jr. has mostly made his living in college as a contested catch demon but Ryan Day & Co. have done well this season to scheme up ways to get MHJ free against good defenses. They beat Penn State by going back to the well off the concepts that crushed Michigan in 2018 and 2019 by running the best WR in college football on crossing routes: 

Marvin Harrison Jr. has been such a huge component of Ohio State's offense, he defines the term Dangerman. The difference between PSU and OSU in their matchup was largely that one team had MHJ and one team did not. Harrison wasn't as productive against Notre Dame, but the effect on a defense is massive. Resources are required to stop him, which frees up the other weapons, who did have good games against the Irish (Emeka Egbuka and Cade Stover). You need resources to stop him because with just one guy in coverage, he is as good as posting up and making the catch as anyone in CFB (perhaps only Keon Coleman has an argument). Here's one clip I used last year: 

Harrison is an alien. A phenomenal football player likely to be picked at the top of the draft and without question the best player on Ohio State's team. The entire game plan will likely be built around stopping MHJ first and then working backwards. You cannot let him beat you alone, which in turn allows others to beat you. A special player. 

HenneChart: Time to talk about Kyle McCord's throwing abilities and what challenges he poses to the Michigan defense. McCord's counting stats look pretty good, 22 TD to 4 INT on 66.4% completion for 9.1 Y/A. Not CJ Stroud, who managed to throw 40+ TDs against just 6 INTs for 70% completion back in 2021 and a similar clip to McCord in 2022, but McCord has had a productive and efficient season. This is reflected in PFF grades, Stroud registering at 89.1 and 92.2(!) as a starter at Ohio State, while McCord is sitting at 79.2. McCord is good, but he is a step down from what we were used to the last couple seasons. 

McCord's charting against Penn State looks excellent: 

OSU vs. PSU	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	Screens
Kyle McCord	1	19	2		1	4		--	--	4	1		81%	5

His showing against Notre Dame earlier in the season was below that based on my charting: 

OSU vs. ND	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	Screens
Kyle McCord	2	17	1		3	6		1	1	5	3		67%	2

McCord is a good college QB throwing to even better weapons. He is perfectly capable of making NFL caliber throws: 

This was a nice throw to Egbuka as well: 

The throw I already shared from the Purdue game in the Dangerman section was another nice one from McCord, throwing off his backfoot under heavy fire and dropping it in. Sure, the throw forced Harrison to slow up and get the ball, but you don't expect perfect placement in that situation. McCord got the ball there for six points and that's what matters. 

McCord at his best can remind you of CJ Stroud, though the majority of the throws I charted in the Penn State game that resulted in that sterling downfield success rate were pretty routine. The crossing route I showed you to Harrison, or just simplistic throws to open receivers sitting down in the zone. McCord gets to throw to some exceptional talents who are normally open and when given that lay of the land, McCord is perfectly capable of leading a good offense. 

What is lacking for McCord relative to Stroud is the terror inflicted on opposing defenses. With Stroud there was the understanding that if he was not pressured, he would 100% rip you apart. Stroud's ability to read the field was strong and his ball placement was exceptional. If you gave Stroud time, with those offensive weapons, he would lead an offense that put up 500+ yards on you guaranteed. With McCord I don't quite feel the same. He will likely lead a successful offense under those circumstances, but Ohio State's offensive dip in production and ranking (from 1st to 19th in SP+) is in decent part the drop off from Stroud to McCord. Stroud threatened you all over the field at all times. The throws he made with ease (remember that dime to MHJ against Gemon Green last year?) were incredible. 

Likewise, Stroud almost never made a heinous mistake. He threw just 12 INTs in two years as OSU's starter and most were miscommunications with a receiver or the result of some degree of pressure getting his footwork a little off and thus an inaccurate throw. How many times do you remember Stroud throwing a ball right into a linebacker's chest? I have almost no memory of that. McCord, on the contrary, has thrown some interceptions that are the result of him misreading coverage and missing the underneath linebacker or a safety jumping the route. There was this one against Rutgers: 

He tried to force a ball on the run against Wisconsin that was intercepted and then threw another INT later in the game where a DB read his eyes and stepped in front of the throw. McCord famously made another one of those throws that should have been intercepted to end the game against Notre Dame, but the Irish defender dropped it: 

Unlike Stroud, I do expect McCord to make a woeful throw or two like that against Michigan because he generally has against good defenses this season. Wisconsin, Rutgers, and Notre Dame all featured "yikes" moments, Penn State had one that was dropped by the defense, and I noted some when I watched the spring game footage too. If Michigan is mixing coverages and throwing different looks at him, they can probably induce him into an ugly mistake. It will be on the defenders to catch it when they get the opportunity. 

Still, McCord is generally quite good. He normally gets the ball to its target without a lot of trouble. His accuracy wavers sometimes and misses a throw or two he should make:

These problems tend to be more pronounced when McCord is forced to move around and faces some pressure. That said, as my charting shows, he's normally accurate. Where he differs from Stroud here is in the marginal category, Stroud the pinpoint sniper who rarely had marginal throws and McCord is more of a normal good college QB, gets the ball there but sometimes it's a tad high or out in front or behind that limits YAC. 

In totality, Kyle McCord is a good college QB. He's going to earn All-B1G honors and rightfully so. If he stays Ohio State's starter, I do expect he will be drafted at some point, but he's more the type of guy who plays four years in college and goes in the mid-rounds, than a high round stud. His arm isn't a cannon, it isn't alarmingly accurate, and he's not quite at NFL levels of reading a defense. Nor is he terribly athletic. He's got a lot of good NCAA traits and on an offense as talented as OSU's, he's done what's asked of him to win a lot of games through excellent offensive play. But he's not an assassin like Stroud, who had one weakness (which he has since rectified) and even then it was a marginal weakness. McCord has more ways to attack, switching coverages, moving him off the spot, making him throw into tight windows and reading unfamiliar defenses. And he's more likely to make unforced mistakes. Then again, so was any QB compared to a guy who's currently an NFL MVP candidate as a rookie.  

 

Overview 

In the preceding seasons, I opened this section by discussing the Ohio State weapons individually before tying it together. I will do the same here this year. We already outlined the biggest weapon, but the Robin to his Batman, Emeka Egbuka is a pretty good player himself. He had as big of an impact on The Game last year as Harrison and has a good shot to go in the first round of the NFL Draft. You may remember this bomb he had over Mike Sainristil: 

Egbuka was injured for the Penn State game, which certainly had an effect on the game (if anything, it makes it all the more maddening that PSU didn't devote more resources to slow down Harrison). In the Notre Dame game, it was Egbuka who did critical damage to the Irish defense. They used him well to defeat blitzes: 

And it was Egbuka who they targeted to convert the crucial 3rd & 19 late: 

The third weapon is TE Cade Stover, featured on the cover of this year's Hail to the Victors magazine. Stover showed out well as a steady option to target on 3rd down against Notre Dame: 

I don't have a ton of highlight reel clips of Stover, but this catch against Penn State was pretty: 

I am not sure about Stover as a run blocker, where he looked pretty subpar in the game I charted, but he is a valuable receiving option who presents an interesting matchup decision for Michigan in coverage. 

Beyond the three primary weapons, the WR/TE group has a big drop off. I do not have a high opinion of Julian Fleming and while I do think Carnell Tate will be very good in the future, right now he's a solid option but not a star. He did rip up Purdue's secondary here because he has 5* talent: 

OSU had a field day against a defense that was running a scheme that's vulnerability corresponds with Ohio State's strengths. Only read so much into that. Tate has 17 catches in 11 games, so he has not been a major fixture to this point. Xavier Johnson has been at Ohio State forever and is best known for his end arounds/jet sweeps/etc. Here is one with orbit motion from the PSU game: 

XJ is a gadget player more than an impact piece on this offense. Finally, there's Gee Scott Jr., the other TE besides Stover who sees the field. In past years, the second TE was a pure blocker like Mitch Rossi, who was also fullback shaped. Scott is a true tight end in terms of size and does have nine catches on the season, but I don't think he's anything special as a receiver at this time and did not impress as a blocker in my viewings. 

Let's move to the running backs now. One of my favorite players, Miyan Williams, is out for the season so the rushing responsibility falls primarily on TreVeyon Henderson and Chip Trayanum, the lightning and thunder, to use everyone's least favorite football cliché. Henderson had a bit of a dud of a sophomore year in 2022, battling injuries and never looking like his electric self from 2021, but this year he seems to be back. This play changed the Notre Dame game: 

That's the TreVeyon Henderson that had me terrified going into the 2021 edition of The Game, the one that can turn one missed tackle into a touchdown from anywhere on the field. I still am not sure if Henderson is a great runner at breaking tackles or grinding out yardage, but he's looked quicker and more instinctual as a runner this season and should be generating considerable NFL interest as a result of his exploits this season. I still remember this run from 2021, because this is TreVeyon Henderson at his best: 

Trayanum is a lot like Williams, a bowling ball that is a load to take down. Most of the times he appears in my notes are on things like "good run by Trayanum just to get a few", which was the case against Penn State: 

While he's a strong between the tackles runner, he can get to the edge on occasion and Trayanum did so to cash in a touchdown against Maryland: 

Dallan Hayden and Evan Pryor are the #3 and #4 RBs with Williams out, but I doubt they would get more than one or two carries here or there. Hayden hasn't gotten on the field much this season but acquitted himself pretty well when he had to start against Maryland in 2022: 

So those are the weapons. How about the blocking? The last couple seasons I framed this section as "how do you stop the Ohio State offense?" but that doesn't feel as useful of a way to frame it when the Ohio State offense is 19th in SP+, rather than the #1 and #4 ratings they held during each of the last two matchups. The Bucks have scored 24 points or fewer four times this season, so it isn't as much of a mystery that I'm trying to crack. 

Anyway, back to the offensive line. This was the main question for Ohio State coming into the season when they graduated both tackles and lost their center a year before they wanted to. The players filling in those holes were either not terribly experienced or not at the same talent caliber that Ohio State is used to putting on the field, which includes going to the portal to snag Josh Simmons from San Diego State at LT. Coming into the season, I wondered how big of a weak spot the Ohio State OL would be and the answer is "a concern at times, but not a massive wound". 

If there is a wound, it would be the C Carson Hinzmann. His 53.5 PFF grade is second-worst among OSU players to be regularly used on offense and that matches up with my charting. He got abused repeatedly by Penn State, with this clip not resulting in anything negative for the offense but oof: 

Interior rush against Hinzmann in the passing game and weakness in the run game has been a recurring theme in the OSU games I charted. His PFF grades have been below average in nearly every P5 game OSU has played in, so that is a matchup that feels particularly advantageous for Michigan, given the strong play of their defensive tackles this season. 

The guards, Matthew Jones and Donovan Jackson, are the same players as last year and I don't think my opinion of them has changed at all. They're very solid players but neither really leaps off the page for me. Jackson is probably the player closest to earning a star on this line. The dependable nature of the guards and the weak spot at center means the X-Factor on the offense are the offensive tackles, particularly in pass protection. Here I'm referring to Simmons and RT Josh Fryar. Their pass block grades on PFF have been pretty good on average, but there have been some wobbles against higher quality rushers. Penn State didn't necessarily devour them alive, but they did get home from time to time. One of those was a strip sack, though erased on an unrelated defensive penalty: 

Simmons gives up some pressure and when mixed with the blitzing pressure up the gut, McCord coughs it up and it very nearly was complete disaster for the OSU offense. McCord was sacked two other times by PSU that did count, including this one that was the result of a lost rep by Fryar: 

I clipped this sack of McCord around Fryar by star EDGE Nic Scourton when I was doing Purdue: 

The kinds of EDGE guys who have gotten around the tackles and sacked McCord are excellent players. If Michigan EDGEs are able to do that, then that will be a good indicator for how they stand as college players. Perhaps more interesting is the blitz potential, which Notre Dame used very well. They blitzed McCord and forced an intentional grounding near the end of the game: 

The success Notre Dame was having in bringing pressure on McCord makes it all the more maddening why they rushed three on the 3rd & 19 that Ohio State converted with Egbuka. McCord does have a tendency to hold onto the ball for a long time in the pocket if his first reads aren't open, and sometimes that can lead to dangerous throwaways: 

As a run blocking line, they have had success, but not overwhelming ones. Maryland and PSU kept it bottled up, while Notre Dame held them to 2.5 YPC outside of the one explosive that Henderson ripped off. Similar story last week with Minnesota last week, Henderson having a 75 yard TD, while the team rushed for 4.1 YPC outside of that singular run. From what I've seen of the OSU run game, they have their good moments, like this one I clipped from the PSU game: 

But there are also a lot of clips of that not happening. Here's another one from the PSU game: 

The short yardage questions with Ohio State are also very much still there on offense. If in a 4th & 2, they're probably going to scheme up some dumb pass or perimeter run like this: 

In totality, OSU's run blocking is pretty solid, but hasn't completely wowed me and their stat lines reflect that. They're not a bully ball team in short yardage still and the most dangerous thing about their run game remains Trayanum grinding out extra yards or Henderson getting free in space for a home run. 

 

What does this mean for Michigan? 

The game plan for Michigan's defense against Ohio State's offense ought to be rather straightforward. Marvin Harrison Jr. is going to eat some amount, but you can't let him beat you entirely. Dedicating safety help there is a must. You assume Will Johnson will draw MHJ, which makes the job of finding matchups for Emeka Egbuka all the more critical, especially coming off a week where Michigan's CB2 struggled. I think OSU will move Egbuka and Harrison around, which will ask some questions about how Michigan plans to deal with that, including the deployment of Mike Sainristil and what personnel they go with on the outside. 

Most of the matchup will be determined at the line of scrimmage. If Michigan's defensive front is able to get pressure while only rushing four, with the EDGE defenders proving themselves well against OSU's tackles, that makes life a lot easier. The same thing can be said for Michigan's run defense in the trenches. We've seen some teams (Maryland especially) gum it up against the Buckeyes on the ground. The efficiency for OSU wasn't great against ND if you subtract that one long Henderson run. However, that Henderson run does show the essential nature of tackling in this game. I think Ohio State's path to a strong day on offense against Michigan's defense rests on hitting some explosives, be it to Harrison or Egbuka down the field, or from a missed tackle on Henderson, as Notre Dame did. If Michigan is able to keep OSU's run game in check with only 5 or 6 in the box, it puts them in a very good position to take care of business in pass defense. 

Likewise, putting a strain on Kyle McCord is a key factor. McCord's four interceptions have all come on the road this season and he very well could have had a 5th in South Bend against the Irish. He's a young QB making his first start in this rivalry and his first massive one in a game of this magnitude. If Michigan can confuse him with their coverages and get pressure, he has the profile of someone who could crack in that situation. Should McCord make a couple interceptable throws like he has in past games, it's on the defenders to catch them and take advantage of those opportunities. Throwing different pressures at him, blitzers coming off the edge, stunts inside, disguised rush packages, all that sort of stuff should come out of the bag and may be particularly effective on someone like McCord.

Limit the big plays, make Ohio State try and succeed in 3rd & short situations where they are still weak, get some pressure and confuse McCord enough to force a turnover or two. It's all certainly doable and we've seen a number of opponents do so similar sorts of things this season (Wisconsin, Notre Dame, PSU). That can translate to a point total in the high teens or low 20s, which may be enough to win.