Michigan BBall #15 AP Poll, #13 USA Today/Coaches
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Up 2 spots in the AP Poll.
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Up 3 spots in Coaches Poll:
BIGGEST MOVERS
FULL RANKINGS
TOP 25 TEAMS, WEEK 16
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD | POINTS | 1ST PLACE VOTES | PREV | CHANGE | HI/LOW |
| 1 | Virginia | 26-2 | 785 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 1/NR |
| 2 | Michigan St | 28-3 | 781 | 15 | 1 | -1 | 1/9 |
| 3 | Duke | 24-5 | 690 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1/10 |
| 4 | Xavier | 25-4 | 683 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4/20 |
| 5 | Villanova | 25-4 | 670 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 1/6 |
| 6 | Kansas | 23-6 | 644 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 2/13 |
| 7 | Gonzaga | 27-4 | 593 | 0 | 6 | -1 | 6/19 |
| 8 | Purdue | 26-5 | 587 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 3/NR |
| 9 | North Carolina | 22-7 | 550 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 4/22 |
| 10 | Cincinnati | 25-4 | 492 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 5/NR |
| 11 | Wichita St. | 23-5 | 436 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 3/21 |
| 12 | Texas Tech | 22-7 | 421 | 0 | 7 | -5 | 6/NR |
| 13 | Michigan | 24-7 | 384 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 13/NR |
| 14 | Ohio St | 24-7 | 378 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 9/NR |
| 15 | Auburn | 24-5 | 316 | 0 | 13 | -2 | 9/NR |
| 16 | Rhode Island | 23-4 | 301 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 14/NR |
| 17 | Tennessee | 21-7 | 290 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 14/NR |
| 18 | Clemson | 21-7 | 248 | 0 | 17 | -1 | 12/NR |
| 19 | West Virginia | 21-8 | 223 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 2/21 |
| 20 | St. Mary's | 16-2 | 195 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 12/NR |
| 21 | Nevada | 25-5 | 170 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 21/NR |
| 22 | Arizona | 22-7 | 166 | 0 | 14 | -8 | 4/NR |
| 23 | Middle Tennessee St. | 23-5 | 81 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 23/NR |
| 24 | Creighton | 20-9 | 66 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 22/NR |
| 25 | Kentucky | 20-9 | 60 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 4/NR |
February 26th, 2018 at 1:08 PM ^
February 26th, 2018 at 1:18 PM ^
There are a few teams I could definitely see Michigan passing even without winning the BTT (I'm using Lunardi's latest Bracketology for the seeds below):
3 seeds - Cincinnati. I once lived in Cinci so I follow the Bearcats and root for them as a secondary team. But I don't get this AT ALL. The RPI is high, but their best wins are home vs Houston, and a sweep of Temple. I'm fairly certain UC loses at Wichita State Sunday (I'll actually be at that game).
4 seeds - Texas Tech @ WVU loser (they play tonight) & Ohio State. Like you, I do think Texas Tech is legit, they're very well coached. But the loser of tonight's game will be piling up the losses a bit. If U-M has a better BTT than OSU, they can pass them.
5 seeds - Kentucky, Gonzaga. One more loss for UK and they will be at 10 losses, that's a lot. I think Gonzaga stays ahead of U-M if they win the WCC tourney but slips if they don't.
So, that's theoretically 5 teams U-M could pass. That gets U-M to a #5, or maybe #4.
February 26th, 2018 at 2:56 PM ^
matters alot..Were in good shape there
February 26th, 2018 at 3:05 PM ^
It's been mentioned numerous times recently on the Board that last year's tournament seeding had a very strong correlation with Strength of Record (how a team actually DID against its sked, as opposed solely its SOS) -
Michigan is currently sitting at #9 SOR, primarlily buoyed by all the top-end road games.
Taken into consideration along with a #16 Ken Pom/ #17 BPI/ #23 RPI/ recent performance (yes, the last 10 or 12 games played is no longer a factor, but recency bias still holds some weight) Michigan is looking much more 4-seed-ish than 6-seed, imo.
Also, Hollis can't opine on diluting our seed this year, which is a plus.
February 26th, 2018 at 4:24 PM ^
RPI is the only thing killing us and it doesn't help it's killing Sparty too. I think most of the bracketologists still must be using it heavily to come up with us as a 6. Every other piece of information shows a resume devoid of weaknesses: no bad losses (unless you count @ NW), reasonable non-conference performance, good road wins, strong season finish, passes the eye test, AP ranking, kenpom, etc.
February 27th, 2018 at 9:40 AM ^
You don't think losing to LSU at a neutral site is bad? What about losing to Nebraska by 20? And then there's Northwestern.
February 26th, 2018 at 1:53 PM ^
Texas Tech is much better than they have shown recently. Their point guard is injured and it clearly shows. Another starter was knocked out of the Kansas game with a concussion very early and the game still came down to the wire, and this is after they won handily at Allen Fieldhouse early in the year. I too think the Big12 will disappoint come tournament time, but think a healthy Tech, WV and Kansas all have the potential to be an exception.
February 26th, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^
Serious question:
Other than attracting TV viewers ("ooooo look, numbers 1 versus 6. That should be a good game. I'll watch that!"), is there really any point to NCAAB rankings?
February 26th, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^
Saves me a few clicks and seconds to check the score when U-M is Top 25
February 26th, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^
Nope not a god-damn thing.
You know what really sucks? That we're 15 here, 16 in Kenpom but because the only rating system the 90 year old guys on the selection committee somewhat understand is the RPI we'll probably sit on the 6 seed line because we're 23rd there.
#Maizenwasright (about scheduling - not about recruiting)
February 26th, 2018 at 12:50 PM ^
The schedule looked reasonable enough entering the season. Here's what really hurt our RPI:
1) We lost to LSU, which meant playing D-II Chaminade in the next game instead of Notre Dame.
2) Detroit, normally a decent mid-major team (and a team we traditionally play) is unusually bad this year, with a 300+ RPI.
3) Northwestern went in the tank after losing to us and now looks like a bad (Quadrant 3) loss.
February 26th, 2018 at 12:53 PM ^
But an SOS of 73 in the RPI is a killer and that's also due to scheduling the Alabama A & M's of the world which was Maizen's point.
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_188_Men.html
February 26th, 2018 at 1:17 PM ^
Every fanbase complains about OOC scheduling. It's hard to put together a schedule without some terrible team on it, especially for those games right around Christmas where no good opponent is going to come in for a one-off.
The Maui tournament ideally would have counterbalanced the Alabama A&M game, but by losing in the first round to a meh LSU team, it ended up not doing much for us (the Chaminade game doesn't even count in the RPI). And then Detroit being unexpectedly terrible compounded the problem.
But that NW game also really hurts now. A win there probably would have our RPI in the top 20. It sucks that we played them at full strength and then McIntosh got hurt right after, but the RPI doesn't take into account.
February 26th, 2018 at 1:57 PM ^
Michigan could be in the top 20 in RPI simply by not playing the sub-300 teams. Yes, both teams have to agree to schedule a game, but if you open up the Bag O' Money, objections magically disappear.
You know who the sub-300 teams will be (for the most part), since they're pretty much always the same. There is no way that anyone thought, 'Oh, this could be Alabama A&M's year.' And your strength of schedule is two thirds of the RPI -- it's literally twice as important as your record.
KenPom even has a service where he'll sell coaches non-conference schedule recommendations to juice their RPI without a meaningful increase in the chance of a loss. Now, the very fact that it's possible to do that is sad, but the fact that Michigan won't do it is sadder.
I did an analysis last week; it shouldn't have changed much. As I recall, if you simply replaced the three non-Detroit sub-300 teams (since the Detroit game made sense for a host of other reasons) with middle-of-the-pack MAC teams (around #180 in KenPom), Michigan's RPI went up from #23 to #17.
February 26th, 2018 at 1:26 PM ^
As fun as Bacari Alexander's pregame speeches were, given how we've done in his absence and how U-D is doing, I'm getting the sense that his departure wasn't that big of a loss, maybe even a net gain.
February 26th, 2018 at 1:55 PM ^
Maizen always had a valid point when it came to this topic, it was just his brash attitude towards everyone all the time that lead to people discrediting him.
February 26th, 2018 at 2:55 PM ^
This is one of the things that made that guy so annoying. Lots of people have been harping on avoiding the 300+ RPI teams on the schedule, including Brian a bunch of times. But "Maizen" acted like it was his own personal discovery, previously unknown to the outside world, and that he deserved credit for it.
February 26th, 2018 at 1:02 PM ^
Serious answer: I find them to be more accurate than RPI for one. The committee may not use AP ranking, but it still has an impact on how people view the top 30 teams or so. For me it's another piece of information like Kenpom on assessing teams, which is all mostly just for fun and brackets anyway.
February 26th, 2018 at 12:36 PM ^
The 1 seed i hope we avoid is Virginia. Their defense is incredible, and defense is something that is usually consistent.
February 26th, 2018 at 12:40 PM ^
I would love to see Beilein against that D. I remember when everyone thought VCU was going to run us out of the gym. Beilein's team put on an absolute clinic.
February 26th, 2018 at 12:50 PM ^
Beilein's game is predicated on not turning the ball over which was antithesis to VCU's press. Virginia would be more akin to Bo-Ryan-peak-Wisconsin clutch, hold, slow pace, jump-under-your-shooter type defenses which were much more annoying.
February 26th, 2018 at 1:51 PM ^
Bo Ryan's Wisconsin defense: doling out sprained ankles for opposing jumpshooters since 2001.
February 26th, 2018 at 12:50 PM ^
February 26th, 2018 at 12:53 PM ^
That game = fond memories.
I remember well the hype Chaka and his team were getting - that fast break offense was going to run the floor all over Beilein's slow paced team. I don't think anyone gave UM a chance to beat VCU that year. But that's when McGary decided to show up. He intimidated the hell out of VCU's interior players, and they didn't know how to adjust to what Beilein setup for them.
What a magnificent coaching clinic that game was! It put a dent on Chaka's career, even though he still cashed in with Texas.
February 26th, 2018 at 2:48 PM ^
I remember going to the two first round games that year, UM vs. NDSU and VCU vs. Akron. VCU absolutely rolled, won by like 40 and looked impressive doing so. I remember walking out of the arena with my dad and him and I were both saying how we thought VCU was going to dominate us, it was a thrill to see coach B prove us wrong.
February 26th, 2018 at 3:13 PM ^
the Jackrabbits
February 26th, 2018 at 4:26 PM ^
You are correct, my bad. They had a stud on their team, so much so that I wanted them to succeed in the tourney, only to see them match up with us.
February 26th, 2018 at 3:28 PM ^
February 26th, 2018 at 4:08 PM ^
I was there also. Fantastic experience.
February 26th, 2018 at 4:27 PM ^
VCU's big win over Akron, while impressive on the surface, was misleading in that IIRC like half the Akron team had the flu before and during the game. Yes, winning by 46 doesn't happen by accident but it also wasn't indicative of the true nature of the abilities of VCU and Akron.
Naturally, we all saw that two days later when Michigan put on a Havoc-destroying clinic en route to winning by 25. Man, it was fun as hell being in the Palace that day!
February 26th, 2018 at 12:59 PM ^
February 26th, 2018 at 1:06 PM ^
VCU wasn't that good of a halfcourt offensive or defensive team. "Havoc" was their whole game. If you didn't turn it over (giving them easy baskets), you'd beat them.
February 26th, 2018 at 2:53 PM ^
February 26th, 2018 at 1:08 PM ^
February 26th, 2018 at 3:30 PM ^
February 26th, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^
The OCD nerd in me is thrilled that Michigan cannot have double digit losses this year!
February 26th, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^
I'm glad I'm not the only one who took some nerdy joy out of that fact.
February 26th, 2018 at 1:15 PM ^
February 26th, 2018 at 12:49 PM ^
February 26th, 2018 at 12:57 PM ^
Espn doesn't have Oklahoma #1 anymore? Wow!
February 26th, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^
February 26th, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^
For all basketball aficionados out there, have a question: how much effect does the BTT really have as far as moving up the rankings? I’ve heard the committee has pretty much already made up its mind about who gets what seed unless you have a situation like last year where a bubble team like Michigan runs roughshod through its conference tournament.
I’m wondering if we’re pretty much already locked into our spot unless we go win the BTT again.
February 26th, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^
Our tournament is over a week before Selection Sunday. I suspect they will treat the games just as regular season games, in combination with other conferences regular season games. The champion and possibly a cinderella run will get a nice little bump. After that, while we sit at home next weekend while everyone else plays their tournaments, the other conference teams will move around us according to their performances.
February 26th, 2018 at 1:29 PM ^
Bracket Matrix has us as the highest 6 seed. I would hope that as long as we win the Thursday game, we won't drop below that.
February 26th, 2018 at 1:36 PM ^
BracketMatrix currently has us as the highest 6 seed, and much closer to the 5 ahead of us than teams behind us.
Hypothetically, what do you think our best case scenario would be? Do you think an appearance in the BTT Finals could sneak us into a 4-seed? I wonder, because this would give us an opportunity to at least be looked at to play in one of the two Detroit pods for Rd1/2. If we got wins over Illinois, Nebraska, and MSU (lowest 2 seed), where would we land? With a championship win over Purdue or OSU, where do we land?
MSU is a virtual lock for one of Detroits pods. The other teams I see in every other prediction going to Detroit that seem protected are Xavier and Purdue. Do you think the committee would find them another home (Nashville, Pittsburgh, Wichita, Charlotte?) To have a 4-seeded Michigan play in Detroit?
February 26th, 2018 at 1:48 PM ^
The seas will part, alot of the teams ahead of us won't be winning their conference tournaments.
February 26th, 2018 at 2:08 PM ^
Just, get it out of your mind. There are too many teams that Michigan would need to pass to make this realistic, including Michigan State or Purdue (even if they passed Xavier and Cincinnati both).
The other thing to keep in mind is that the vast majority of these bracket projections are done on an "if the season ended today" basis. So, a week from now, Michigan will have no ability to improve their resume, whereas everyone around them will be able to pick up more good wins. Basically, Michigan's seed is inflated a bit by having played two more games than most major conference opponents.
I want to believe. I like the relatively small number of losses, and only one terrible loss (@Northwestern looks worse every day). I like the fact that Michigan is trending upwards. But the Big Ten is just tissue paper weak this year. Michigan has one of the most impressive wins at the country, if you think MSU is any good (which the committee might not). But there's little beyond that.
Michigan had more quality wins last year than they will be able to accrue this year, even if they win out. Yes, they had more losses too, but the committee isn't usually impressed by teams padding their résumés with victories over cream puffs (see: annual seeding of mid-major teams). Michigan expected a strong Big Ten to make up for a soft OOC schedule. The Big Ten isn't strong, and it's going to hurt their seed.
February 26th, 2018 at 2:46 PM ^
If Ohio State / Kentucky / Wichita State / West Virgnia / Clemson / Kentucky / Arizona / Tennessee don't win their conferences (which is more than likely, based on the teams they face) - how do these teams end up ahead of a BTT Champion Michigan? Michigan has a better overall record and would most likely have a huge bump in Kenpom/RPI.
February 26th, 2018 at 4:01 PM ^
1 - They probably won't have a huge bump in either RPI or KenPom from winning the Big Tent tournament. It represents barely 10% of the season -- and the first of two of those games (at least) will be against teams that are out of the tournament.
2 - Better overall record is fool's gold. St. Mary's, Nevada, and Rhode Island will all have a better overall record than Michigan too. Care to argue in favor of them?
The simple fact of the matter is that this year, the Big Ten has played like a mid-major conference. Winning the conference tournament isn't that big a deal when it comes to seeding (see: Michigan last year). Losing in your conference tournament also isn't that big of a deal (see: Michigan in 2014; they probably dropped from #4 to #5 on the S-Curve).
Taking just one example from your list -- West Virginia has road wins over OK State, K-State, Oklahoma, and Baylor, home wins over Virginia, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas, K-State, and TCU, and no terrible losses (their worst is probably home vs. OK State). This is a stronger résumé than Michigan can have even with a Big Ten tournament championship; Michigan has wins @MSU, vs. OSU, @PSU, @Maryland, @Texas, and, if you insist, vs. UCLA, and an increasingly bad loss vs. Northwestern.
And Michigan could be the 3rd #1 seed and still not get to Detroit if MSU and Xavier are #1 and #2. I'd be shocked if they ended up in Detroit as a 4 seed. Typically, the 4 seeds get shipped out to the places nobody wants (e.g., Boise and San Diego).
February 26th, 2018 at 2:53 PM ^
Our floor will be a five seed and we likely end up in Detroit with MSU and Purdue goes elsewhere. Purdue's been so-so while we're heating up.
And people not-buying the MSU hype train probably see them struggling to win most of their games and the only tournament team they've beaten since November is Purdue (once). So I'm not 100% convinced that they play in Detroit as a #2 seed. They could definitely drop to a #3 seed if they lose Friday or Saturday.