So, you're telling me there's a chance (part 3) - UM's chances at the B1G East
You could call this part of a running series started by TaiStreetsMyHero here. Last week, I wrote up a simulation with the various relevant tiebreakers to come up with Michigan's chances at the Big Ten East title.
Honestly, there's not all that much reason for a follow-up post, since a simulation is not needed to calculate Michigan's chances with so few games remaining. But, the code is already written, and took only a few minutes to update, so here it is:
| Div Champs (out of 10,000,000) | % | |
| OSU | 9,819,579 | 98.20 |
| UM | 97,624 | 0.976 |
| MSU | 48,565 | 0.486 |
| PSU | 34,232 | 0.342 |
| Rutgers | : ( | : ( |
Alas, Rutgers has fallen out of contention. Also, we can see that last week's results only marginally increased Michigan's chances. While winning our game helped, we still have the two biggest hurdles as ahead, and each of those got more difficult (according to S&P) due to dominating performances by OSU and Wisconsin. Also, Penn State beat Rutgers which was (sad as that is) probably the best chance we had for an upset over Penn State. Finally, the poor performances by Rutgers, Maryland, and Nebraska reduced the chances any of those teams upset MSU or PSU in the final 2 weeks. Relevant games and S&P predictions are pasted below:
Michigan (needs to go 2-0)
Win @ Wisconsin (28%)
AND
Win vs. OSU (31%)
Overall probability of 2-0: 8.68%
Michigan State (needs to go 1-1 or worse)
Lose vs. Maryland (21%)
OR
Lose @ Rutgers (34%)
Overall probability of 1-1 or worse: 47.86%
Penn State (needs to go 1-1 or worse)
Lose vs. Nebraska (11%)
OR
Lose @ Maryland (14%)
Overall probability of 1-1 or worse: 23.46%
November 13th, 2017 at 5:31 PM ^
November 14th, 2017 at 9:07 AM ^
Honest question because it happened multiple times in one post, are you meaning to post "lost" in that context?
November 13th, 2017 at 3:47 PM ^
Here's a shitty thought: the outcome of the UM-OSU game will likely put one of our rivals in the B1G championship.
UM wins = MSU goes.
OSU wins = OSU goes.
November 13th, 2017 at 3:49 PM ^
Even if Michigan beats OSU, OSU is still the most likely representative since they have victories over MSU and Penn State.
November 13th, 2017 at 3:52 PM ^
I stand corrected.
November 13th, 2017 at 5:41 PM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 3:50 PM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 7:33 PM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 4:17 PM ^
If OSU beats Illinois next week MSU and PSU are eliminated. If we lose to Wisconsin their in.
November 13th, 2017 at 4:59 PM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 9:29 PM ^
Assuming that OSU wins this coming Saturday, they go to the B1G championship whether or not Michigan beats them in the game or not. OSU at this point is UNDEFEATED in the B1G east and has beaten MSU. This is one of those historically rare years where "The Game" has no bearing on the championship.
November 13th, 2017 at 9:59 PM ^
if OSU beats Illinois .... Ohio State is not guaranteed a trip to Indianapolis.
OSU beats Illinois.
Michigan beats both Wisconsin and OSU.
MSU loses to either Maryland or Rutgers.
PSU loses to either Nebraska or Maryland.
OSU & U-M are tied a top the B1G East at 7-2 ... and U-M win the B1G East.
November 14th, 2017 at 1:44 AM ^
how do you get this far down a thread about this topic and F it up so badly?
If we beat Wisconsin, The Game will matter at least until the conclusion of the MSU and PSU games that day.
November 13th, 2017 at 3:48 PM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 3:57 PM ^
Doubtful, our OOC schedule wasn't tough enough. A two-loss team needs the conference championship game win to have any chance at a playoff birth. OSU snuck in last year in large part due to their big win over Oklahoma.
November 13th, 2017 at 4:04 PM ^
No. we'd have 3 wins over teams with winning records and since it would involve osu, psu, and msu all losing again plus us beating wisconsin twice likely none of those would be top 10 wins, likely not even top 15. Our schedule is trash.
If you wanted to get in without a big ten championship teams that likely get in ahead of Michigan even if they had 2 losses would be USC, ND, Georgia, Bama, Clemson, Auburn, potentially psu and msu given their head to head win over us, a 1 loss big ten champ wisoncin, miami, oklahoma, oklahoma state, tcu and I'm sure there are more I'm not thinking of.
November 13th, 2017 at 5:10 PM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 6:30 PM ^
Doesn't Wisconsin drop off the schedule next year?
November 13th, 2017 at 7:27 PM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 5:27 PM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 4:03 PM ^
Would you want to see us play Oklahoma or Bama in Round 1?
November 14th, 2017 at 1:56 AM ^
because if we won the Big Ten and made the CFP (which we'd have a good chance of doing if we win the conference), it would almost necessarily mean Brandon Peters would be unleashed and killing it. That'd be the only way we beat Wisconsin twice and OSU.
If we somehow discover a fully functional passing game to go along with our running game and defense, there isn't a team this year that would scare me.
November 13th, 2017 at 3:54 PM ^
So we need Maryland to win their next two games...
When I saw their trick plays against us, my first impression was why now? why didn't you save those for the next two games?
November 13th, 2017 at 6:27 PM ^
I am glad they pulled out their trick plays. Michigan's defense needed to see them to help prepare for any crap UFM might try to pull on us.
November 13th, 2017 at 3:57 PM ^
Doesn't really matter, but just curious. If any teams are tied at the top are they considered B1G East division co-champs, with the tie breakers determining who goes to the B1G CG or does the tie-breaker actually determine who won the division?
November 13th, 2017 at 5:15 PM ^
The tiebreaker does not actually break the tie for the title "Division Champion." It only breaks the tie for the spot in the championship game. So to the extent that it matters, every team tied for the division championship is still the division co-champion.
November 14th, 2017 at 1:58 AM ^
if you have a bet on us winning the division, it pays if we win out.
November 13th, 2017 at 4:02 PM ^
All I'm asking for is Michigan to win this week and one of msu or psu to lose, that will make the last week interesting, and that is good enough for me.
November 13th, 2017 at 4:02 PM ^
Too bad Maryland now just sucks.
November 13th, 2017 at 4:09 PM ^
I honestly believe if Kasim Hill had been healthy this year MD gets like 7 wins and has a legitimate chance against msu but hard to believe they can do it given a non functional passing game. They have an air force qb, they should just go triple options with bombs to dj moore and see what happens.
November 13th, 2017 at 4:02 PM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 4:12 PM ^
All we can do is play ball. Can't control what happens in the other games. Go out and play against a relatively unknown Wisconsin team as this will be their first real test of the season. Don't look ahead to o$u. Wisconsin is a winnable game.
November 13th, 2017 at 4:13 PM ^
It isn't going to happen this year in terms of a conference championship game appearance, but seeing PSU play themselves out of contention after the way Franklin tried to one-up Michigan's demolition of them last year makes me happy.
November 13th, 2017 at 5:19 PM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 4:33 PM ^
Someone come up with a plausible, if incorrect, explanation for how MSU winning out somehow gives Michigan the tiebreaker. Slip it under Dantonio's door.
I'm not sure what to do about Penn State though.
November 13th, 2017 at 4:33 PM ^
Someone come up with a plausible, if incorrect, explanation for how MSU winning out somehow gives Michigan the tiebreaker. Slip it under Dantonio's door.
I'm not sure what to do about Penn State though.
November 13th, 2017 at 4:37 PM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 5:21 PM ^
ARRRGH!! ARGGHT!!! ARGHTTT!?
November 13th, 2017 at 4:47 PM ^
All UM needs to do to be alive for the last weekend of games is beat Wisconsin right?
November 13th, 2017 at 4:51 PM ^
Yes if Michigan beats Wisconsin they are still alive for a championship, though it could be over before kickoff if Michigan/osu is a 3:30 game and psu/md and msu/rutgers kick off at 12.
November 13th, 2017 at 5:18 PM ^
OSU and Michigan kick off at noon.
November 13th, 2017 at 9:45 PM ^
OSU has to lose to Illinois. Now in theory anything can happen in college football but Illinois is 0-7 in conference play and lost last Saturday to Indiana who is 1-6 in conference. The odd of Illinois beating OSU are asymptotically close to zero.
Oh and even if Illinois wins Michigan needs MSU to lose to either Maryland or Rutgers. Sorry to burst your bubble but ain't gonna happen.
We should all just hope to win out, finish 10-2, and get to a good bowl and enjoy a far better than expected rebuilding year without our starting QB.
November 13th, 2017 at 4:59 PM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 5:03 PM ^
Is Oakland still in play?
November 13th, 2017 at 5:11 PM ^
Nope, that was last week. If you read "Harbaugh To NFL" Twitter today, it's Chicago, plus a few loopy people who seem to think that Harbaugh will be the savior in San Francisco again....don't aske me what THAT person was freebasing.
November 13th, 2017 at 5:20 PM ^
hmmm . . dilly dilly.
November 13th, 2017 at 5:33 PM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 7:07 PM ^
is scaring the shit out of me. Been nice beating up on the sisters of the poor and all, but...like Brians podcast...the wins are forgettable.
Go freakin show how good you are against a confusing Wisonsin team. Are they good, are they not, are we good now, are we just an average team...I dunno man? Does Wisconsin have atheltes like Penn State, are they going ot unload the book at us? I hate all of this, strap on the iron jock strap and win the god damn game.
Man what a feeling it would be if we get a W this weekend...dont care how it looks.
But my hopes are not super high
November 14th, 2017 at 2:12 AM ^
Is Wisconsin good? Yes, they're very good.
Are we good or just average? We're good, certainly above average. But since they're very good, and we're only good, and we're playing at their place, we're a 10 point underdog and have about a 30 percent chance to win.
Does Wisconsin have athletes like PSU? They don't have the pass catchers or the QB, but they have a better offensive line and a good, fast RB (although not as good as Barkley). We should hold them to a fairly low scoring output.
What they do have is a really good, sound defense that blitzes from out of their 3-4. If we can't run on them, we will get murdered in the passing game. So running is our only hope and that'll be tough against them.
That is all.