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Date Title Body
12/05/2018 - 4:44pm Right. If he's a real…

Right. If he's a real aerospace/CFB baller, then CJK5H is hidden in a figure somewhere.

Looks like a cool book.

11/30/2018 - 10:32am You forgot to divide. top 25…

You forgot to divide. top 25 in basketball != top 25 in football.

If basketball had a "4 team playoff" equivalent to football, then it would really be more like a 12 team playoff. So a 3 seed probably makes the CFP equivalent in basketball. That has happened a few times in Beilein's tenure, and I think that most people will be happy with Harbaugh if he makes the playoffs at a rate equal to that.


11/01/2018 - 12:07pm Of course they're a…

Of course they're a pointless ramble. But he's just a kid, and so into it and so excited. Let the kid have some fun. It should be fun to see a kid having so much fun.

10/26/2018 - 4:09pm Read much?

I say, "Marcus…

Read much?

I say, "Marcus was a beast on the field, and a key part of one of the greatest Michigan teams of all time."

Was he on the 1997 team? yes.

Was he a key contributor? yes.

Was that one of the greatest teams in Michigan history? yes.

10/26/2018 - 3:12pm Yeah, it's sad. One thing…

Yeah, it's sad. One thing that doesn't sit well with me especially is that, when people get mad at him for his stupid hot takes, they say that he was not a great player and all his success is due to Woodson.

I mean, can't we criticize the words coming out of Marcus' mouth without taking shots at his excellent Michigan career? Marcus was a beast on the field, and a key part of one of the greatest Michigan teams of all time.

10/22/2018 - 11:01am I don't know. Is water not…

I don't know. Is water not saturated with water? I suppose you could argue that water which contains some other non-water body is not saturated.  So, like, the ocean, with all its fishies and trash and rocks and plants and things is not saturated, and therefore not wet. On the other hand, a glass of plain water with nothing else in it is full of saturated water, hence that water is wet.

What do we think about this? (This is important).

10/01/2018 - 9:48pm I believe they call this the…

I believe they call this the slippery slope fallacy.

09/27/2018 - 11:16am Hey Ethan, when the bullets…

Hey Ethan, when the bullets are news-ful, can you please include the news *in* the bullet?

e.g. Instead of writing a bullet

  • Injury updates on Kwity Paye and Aubrey Soloman

Write instead:

  • Kwity Paye practiced at 100%
  • There is no timeline on Aubrey Soloman's return, but he is doing well
09/20/2018 - 4:57pm I got neg-bombed for…

I got neg-bombed for complaining about bullets on your last post, so I just wanted to say thank you for putting the news in the bullet regarding JKP here.

That's all I meant, I did not mean to get rid of the bullets, I just meant to please include any news directly in the bullet for people who'd rather not read the entire transcript to find the newsy bits, as you've done here.

Thanks again for transcribing the audio, it is nice to be able to read the pressers.

09/20/2018 - 4:50pm This is buried and will…

This is buried and will never be seen, but wow was this taken incorrectly.  I am not suggesting to get rid of the bullet points. And I tried to do it in the most respectful way possible.

What I asked, is if he could please "put the news" inside the bullet point.  So, instead of "read ahead to find out the injury update on Higdon," please just give the update directly in the bullet.  That way, those who don't want to read the entire transcript still get the news.

09/19/2018 - 8:47am Hey Ethan, we really…

Hey Ethan, we really appreciate the transcripts from pressers. However, your "no spoilers" style bullet points are kind of pointless.

Instead of saying: "We discuss Evans/Higdon injury update."

Just say: "Ben Mason says Higdon and Evans are practicing."


Thank you again for all your work!

09/17/2018 - 6:37pm Weird thanks. I typed that…

Weird thanks. I typed that exact line into google (it is still in my search history) and obviously I read it wrong or something. 

Wish I could edit my post.

Still 4.64 ypc *after* removing all runs 27 yards or greater is very good.

09/17/2018 - 4:16pm This is just super wrong. 

This is just super wrong. 

Higdon's long 67, Evans 27 (twice), Higdon had another long run of 43.

We had 35 carries for 308 yards. If you remove those 4 long runs, then we have

(308-27-27-67-43)/31 = 5.5

Subtracting one outlier type play may often make sense, but to subtract 4 out of 35 carries as "not representative" is excessive. On top of that, we *still* averaged 5.5 ypc when you remove the 4. 

I'd say obvious troll is obvious, but then I just spent 5 minutes looking up the stats, which is to say I was effectively trolled. So good job?

09/14/2018 - 11:30am Don't really think the…

Don't really think the content here lived up to the headline you gave it.

I'm pretty sure that every time we had a house party and the cops showed up, we got a ticket. But I'm not positive that's true. I could imagine once or twice they let it go with a warning.


09/10/2018 - 4:25pm You mean 2017 Cincinnati…

You mean 2017 Cincinnati that finished 4-8 overall and 2-6 in the West Division of the American?

2017 Cincinnati that finished #102 in S&P+?

Granted, WMU is also below #100 in S&P+, but to make some sort of weird statement that 2017 UC would easily handle 2018 Western, is just...weird.

Last year, we struggled against even very bad teams. This year, one data point suggests we don't. Nothing is done and decided, but those claiming that a blowout of a bad team is utterly meaningless is, again, just weird.

09/08/2018 - 4:20pm If you remove Higdon's long…

If you remove Higdon's long run (67 yards) and the long pass (44 yards), we *still* averaged 6.7 yards per play, and scored touchdowns on 5 of our first 6 drives.

Blowout is blowout.

09/08/2018 - 3:38pm I mean, he looked solid. But…

I mean, he looked solid. But, IMO, Higdon and Evans are all big-ten caliber backs. Hard to find many touches for him.

09/05/2018 - 10:20pm If we assume that 1 score…

If we assume that 1 score games could go either way with equal probability given two equally matched coaches, then P(5-8 or less) = 0.2904


08/27/2018 - 3:44pm Yeah, I was curious about…

Yeah, I was curious about that. They're, of course, more connected than us. I feel like, for many years, it was said here that Beilein could not recruit against the Dukes, etc., because the playing field was simply not level. The implication of that statement, of course, was that Beilein really doesn't do anything improper, even by the backwards metric of NCAA "morality."

When Ace said "everyone" does it, and neither Seth nor Brian corrected him, the implication was clear: *everyone* does it.

So. huh. I don't even know what to think about that. On the one hand, money for service, yay. On the other, I still kind of liked believing that Michigan was different, that it at least tried to be different, etc. And now there's the thing where Harbaugh won't say anything bad about Durkin, which is kind of an implicit endorsement of his methods.

But still. Sports is fun because random number generators. If we just flip heads a few times in a row, then we can beat some "bad guys" (or, at least "worse guys") and have some fleeting happiness about beating expectations.

08/24/2018 - 11:28pm Wow. They sure have. I will…

Wow. They sure have. I will predict here that he's less good at PR than Ambry Thomas looks at KR.  Will post an apology if he does well.

08/24/2018 - 5:42pm Is anyone else super…

Is anyone else super disappointed to hear DPJ is on punt returns again? His OSU return was extremely impressive, but aside from running by low-major competition once, he seemed to lack the shiftiness/explosion that you usually want in a punt returner.

07/07/2018 - 3:03pm what's so redundant about…

what's so redundant about liquid water?

07/03/2018 - 10:23pm Honorable mention:


Honorable mention:

South Park, The Simpsons, Star Trek, Parks & Rec, The Office, Arrested Development, Big Love, 24, etc...

07/03/2018 - 10:13pm I'm pretty surprised no one…

I'm pretty surprised no one has said 'Lost'


2. The Wire

3. Mad Men

4. Black Mirror

5. Breaking Bad

06/09/2018 - 2:14pm Collapsible threads are nice…

Collapsible threads are nice, but even once you've collapsed them, they still take up a ton of space.

06/09/2018 - 2:10pm re: the banner

I'm pretty…

re: the banner

I'm pretty sure blind trekkie is Xavier Simpson and Tron is Quinn Hughes.  I personally love the banner.

05/25/2018 - 9:56am just curious:

why are the metrics meaningless or misleading?

It's been fun to watch, keep the updates coming.

05/15/2018 - 4:12pm To be clear: I was not

To be clear: I was not implying Lebron is clean. I was only pointing out that mgrowold was not making strong arguments.

05/15/2018 - 3:59pm isn't rookie Lebron an 18

isn't rookie Lebron an 18 year old kid?

I don't generally disagree with the premise that monitoring is behind doping, and that it may be rampant throughout all professional sports, but comparing 1990 skinny dudes to 2018 buff dudes and 18 year old boy Lebron to 35 year old (I'm a man!) Lebron are not particularly strong arguments.

35 year old me is 6'2" 210 lbs, and 18 year old me was 5'11" 140 lbs. If I had been lifting weights and playing hoops for that entire 17 years, I'd probably be a "good" 6'2" 210, instead of a "bad" 6'2" 210.

05/14/2018 - 10:42am Does this have any implications for online gambling?

In particular, online poker?

05/01/2018 - 12:54pm Do they come annotated?

A window into the sports machinations of the OP have a value beyond...well, value.

04/17/2018 - 1:40pm you're on the right track, but...

NCAA galaxy brain move will be to replace kickoff with a commercial.  Touchdown -> commercial break -> special kickoff replacement commerical brought to you by Arby's -> commercial break.

04/15/2018 - 1:27pm Taxes?

Dont you live in your parents basement and get paid by Brian in pizzas?

04/11/2018 - 4:47am Yes, he was

Jmo had excellent feet for a big man. Watch his hedge/recover defending PnR. Also watch him in transition. He was absolutely quick and explosive.

03/26/2018 - 10:04am somebody took the sister jean bait.

M-dog's gonna be pissed.

03/17/2018 - 5:47pm Nelson county has jobs?

You in the alcohol industry? I live near cardinal point, we love it out here.

03/13/2018 - 4:06pm full version of gif with bonus WTF reaction

Maryland girl crushes beer then chugs it.

03/13/2018 - 4:00pm honestly the best recorded chug of all time

there is only one GOAT* on this thread, and it ain't Tom Brady.

*With regard to smashing beer better than any frat boy ever could.

03/10/2018 - 7:08am We are talking past each other a bit.

I commented specifically on your assertion that "performance over the last 10 games does not correlate with tournament success."
If you define performance as W-L record, then sure, it's not that predictive. But your link answers its own questions in that regard. W-L record isn't *generally* predictive in the tournament anyway due to the wide range in SOS.

As always, we know it is sos-adjusted margin of victory that matters. So, to restate my claim: it is obviously true that adjusted MOV in that last 10 games is predictive of tournament success.

Finally, as mentioned elsewhere, those are some terrible scatter plots.

03/09/2018 - 10:56pm you are apparently right about the committee

but I would like to see some support (I doubt any exists) for your assertion that there is not correlation between a team's performance in its last 10 games and its performance in the tournament. It seems like these would obviously correlate.

Would you not expect to see a correlation between a team's performance throughout the entire regular season and its post season performance? Yes, we clearly would. So why would one think that the most recent 10 games are not important?

You are apparently right about the committee not using most recent 10 games as a metric for inclusion/exclusion, but you are obviously wrong to think that the performance in a team's most recent 10 games does not have any predictive value on tournament performance. 

Now, of course, if you are arguing whether the most recent 10 games is more important than the entire body of work, that is a different story.

03/08/2018 - 3:27pm OOoO,

you mean.

01/23/2018 - 2:59pm Yeah, I know

The point is that by conceding the tip, you get the next possession. If that first possession is worth way less than others, it may be worth it to just give it up, right?

On second thought, that is dumb, though. The team winning the tip starts the game winning 0.8 - 0. Which is obviously a good thing for that team.

01/23/2018 - 2:55pm That's what I thought.

So does a possession that is interrupted by an inbounds (after oob on defense, or kicked ball, or whatever), really drop in efficiency by 20%?

01/23/2018 - 2:26pm Oh. You think so? I don't

Oh. You think so? I don't think I would have thought that. If there is a tie-up and the ball doesn't change possession, does that count as a new possession?

01/23/2018 - 2:22pm Post tip ppp

Does the fact that it is so low imply it is actually a better strategy to purposefully concede the tip?

In return, you get to start the 2nd half with possession, and that is just off a normal inbound.

Or, does it simply imply that the first offensive possession of the game is rocky?

01/22/2018 - 10:49am Just piling on

The implication that auto mechanics is somehow below "smart" people is ridiculous. I happen to be getting a PhD in aerospace engineering and you sure as hell better believe that I defer to my automechanic when it comes to taking care of my car.

He's a very intelligent guy, and has developed the relevant expertise. For some reason, I doubt that anyone would trust you to fix their car. Is that because you are "too smart"?  

p.s. When/if I ever graduate, I hope that I will have enough time to learn to do at least some simple work on our cars. Seems like a fun hobby and a way to save a lot of money. It also seems like an intellectually challenging project to take on. It doesn't seem like easy work for stupid people.

01/18/2018 - 11:31pm Really?

I don't. For all the usual "lacked heart!" nonsense I see around here, I see a tough matchup with a team that plays 5 out, has decent athleticism, and can switch all screens and Wagner can't take advantage when switched onto a small, and can't beat their 5 off the dribble. I'd rather not see Nebraska again this year.

01/17/2018 - 2:32pm Not until he's long retired.

I know Beilein is not JoePa, but seriously, let's not rush to name things after people.

01/17/2018 - 2:28pm Didn't look anything up, but

Didn't look anything up, but I'm fairly confident the 2013 team did not improve a ton offensively from their early season ratings. IIRC, that team started the year 15-0 or something like that and was briefly #1 in the polls.

This is not to say there is no case for this team to improve offensively, it is just to point out that the 2013 team does not likely bolster that argument.

01/11/2018 - 10:30pm Lost out

We were definitely recruiting him until the end.

2014 was kind of a rough class, we missed out on KBD, Jae'sean Tate, Vincent Edwards and Traevon Blueitt.

All those guys have turned out good to very good.

We ended up with Ricky Doyle, Kam Chatman, Aubrey Dawkins, Austin Hatch, MAAR, and DJ Wilson.