Michigan football moving in on elite Florida commitment

Submitted by StephenRKass on

In a Freep recruiting article this morning, Steven Lorenz writes about several high profile recruits Michigan is in on.

LINK:  Michigan football moving in on elite Florida commitment.

With the firing of McElwain at Florida, several of their commitments are reopening their recruitment. JaMarr Chase, a 5 star wide receiver from Louisianna currently ranked 25 overall in the country, is considering an official visit to Michigan. (4 of his 5 officials are already set.) EDIT:  Chase already holds a Michigan offer.

In addition, Lorenz writes that Butch Jones' days at Tennessee may be numbered. This would open things up for top 100 prospects Cade Mays on the OL and Greg Emerson on the DL. Lastly, if Mora is canned at UCLA, this could open things up for top 50 CB Olaijah Griffin. EDIT:  Neither Mays or Emerson are listed with an offer at 247, although Griffin holds one.  EDIT 2:  Trieu in a piece at the Detroit News adds OT Nicolas Petit-Frere, #42 4 star out of Florida, and Jalen Goss, 3 star, #826, out of Georgia, both with Michigan offers. Even though Petit-Frere is much higher in the rankings, both players hold an impressive list of elite offers. Sam Webb offers a great and encouraging quote:  "there are offensive line recruits committed to other schools that Michigan is pursuing but those names are not likely to surface until later in the process."

I would be cautious in assuming that Michigan's recruiting is tanking in this cycle. Both Michigan and Harbaugh are still rising, and behind the scenes, there are numerous recruits still in play for Michigan.

While it is unlikely, Michigan could still easily win out this year. (I expect they will win a minimum of two more games, more likely three, four unlikely.) Regardless, I would consider this performance a success, given all the new players. The amount of youth already on the field bodes well for the future, and is something potential recruits like to see.

I would echo others who feel that it is important to stay somewhere in the top 15 recruiting rankings. If you have a few key studs, along with top 15 recruiting year in and year out, it will pay off.

EDIT:  I choose not to take shots at anyone else who feels differently about Michigan's recruiting prospects. All I'll say is that I'm all in for Harbaugh and for Michigan, and that I fully expect the coaching staff to attack recruiting with an enthusiasum unknown to mankind.

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HChiti76

October 31st, 2017 at 3:35 PM ^

Maizen's post has far and away the most replies on the board.  279 right now.  Second place is a mere 106.

What does that remind you of? (Think: every second of every news day)

Joined: 12/01/2014

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93Grad

October 31st, 2017 at 3:36 PM ^

Michigan rising at the moment?  We lost to a thoroughly mediocre Sparty team, got demolished by PSU, and 8-4 certainly looks likely.  We also aren't exactly killing it on the recruiting trail in 2018.  

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Boulderine

October 31st, 2017 at 4:07 PM ^

...please define what constitutes a close game?

Too many on this blog have bought into the narrative that Dantonio owns Harbaugh. I respect Dantonio, but that narrative is clearly an exaggeration, much like your characterization of Michigan’s “thorough” loss. It was a loss, and a close one if we need to qualify it at all.

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Boulderine

October 31st, 2017 at 4:30 PM ^

I asked how the loss was “thorough.” Way to not address my point. For the record I think participation trophies are stupid, so tell me again what your point was?

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StephenRKass

October 31st, 2017 at 4:26 PM ^

That's a great question (how do you see Michigan rising?) The fallacy, imhe, is to expect a constant rise in performance. I believe there is much more of a rise and plateau, rise and plateau. In the first two years of Harbaugh, Michigan was able to coach up a number of guys who had underperformed under Hoke.

Hoke's record:

  • 2011   11 - 2
  • 2012    8 - 5
  • 2013    7 - 6
  • 2014    5 - 7

Every year, things got worse. 

Harbaugh's record:

  • 2015   10 - 3
  • 2016   10 - 3
  • 2017     6 - 2

We are guessing now, but worst case scenario, Michigan goes 2 - 2 in the next four games. That is 8 - 4. Best case scenario, they go 4 - 0. That is 10 - 2. My projection of 3 - 1, they end up 9 - 3. My guess, with a bowl matchup, is a bowl win.

But you're asking, how is that "trending up?" Simple. I believe that this year and next year are transition years. To perform this well, with all the change, with the deficient OL, with the QB, is marvelous. The OL is being molded into shape, and will get better from here on out. Between Speight, Peters, and McCaffrey, the QB should be trending up. The freshmen wide receivers should have it figured out, and do much better next year. I firmly believe that under Coach Harbaugh, the team is getting better every day. For various reasons, Penn State was a perfect storm. But I still am very confident in the future. 

 

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Kevin13

October 31st, 2017 at 3:51 PM ^

and when they do, pick their bones clean by moving in on top recruits. Harbaugh will win a few more recruiting battles and we will finish with a nice class. Like you pointed out win a couple of more games and hopefully a bowl also. You have a lot to show recruits with how we young we are and that you can get on the field next year as our future is very bright.

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taistreetsmyhero

October 31st, 2017 at 4:27 PM ^

"I expect they will win a minimum of two more games, more likely three, four unlikely."

That expectation isn't quite supported by the current Massey win probabilities:

  • 86% win probability vs. Minny
  • 79% vs. Maryland
  • 35% vs. Wisconsin
  • 29% vs. OSU

Here are the probabilities of the remaining scenarios (rounded so doesn't equal 100%)

4 wins = 7%

3 wins = 33%

2 wins = 42%

1 win = 15%

0 wins = 1%

So, most likely scenario is 2 wins, but 3 wins is still a reasonable expectation. But it is more likely that we only win one more game than that we win out. Obviously, a ton of caveats apply here, but these numbers pass the eye test.

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taistreetsmyhero

October 31st, 2017 at 5:54 PM ^

You do make a good point.

Another interesting change happens to the numbers when you assume the by-far most likely scenario happens:

  • Michigan beats Minny and Maryland
  • Wisconsin remains undefeated prior to our game
  • OSU loses at most 1 game prior to our game
  • The win probabilities subsequently rise slightly to say...40% vs. Wisconsin and 33% vs. OSU

That changes the odds significantly:

2 Wins: 40%

3 Wins: 47%

4 wins: 13%

So, if the Peters Principal* holds, then we really should expect to win one out of Wisconsin and OSU.

*Peters has a much higher floor than O'Korn and will not have an O'Kornian fall-off

 

 

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StephenRKass

October 31st, 2017 at 6:37 PM ^

That seems about right . . . 47% to win three games. I simply think that under Harbaugh, with our defense and Don Brown, with Peters easing in, with the OL figuring it out, with the WR group figuring it out, with five guys at RB (Wow . . . Higdon, Isaac, Walker, Evans, and Samuels,) with the TE learning how to block, we will NOT lose to MN or MD. I think we beat Wisconsin. But if there is anything he can do, any way we can manage, JH will beat OSU. I feel much better going forward than I have felt so far this year, and I don't have the sense of foreboding I always had with RR and even with Hoke (that the bottom might fall out any time now.)

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SMart WolveFan

November 1st, 2017 at 8:03 PM ^

....but you really should stop using this weak metric just to try to convince fans not to believe.

For UofM to have a chance at any sort of championship some really crazy shit needs to happen-guess what?-crazy shit happens in CFB every year, maybe they can benefit from some that crazy this year.

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bluepalooza

October 31st, 2017 at 9:54 PM ^

Michigan's defense will keep WI and OSU close.  If M can get timely and solid QB play I think 3-1 is not an unreasonable expectation.  I think, Peters with 2.5 games under belt will be the best QB play Michigan will see this year at WI.  I think the defense will keep WI in check.  Offense will be good enough.

I, like many of you, was extremely dissapointed with MSU game.  But, it happened, Michigan is the youngest team in D1 and the next 2 years at MINIMUM will be championship caliber teams. Yes, MSU was a bitter pill, but when I look to 2018/19 Michigan WILL be an elite TEAM.  Both sides of ball will be impressive. Getting Black back, and DPJ with one year under belt, Michigan will have insanely good WR and TE play.  Peters will be a red shirt softmore and ascending.  With solid QB play, you are going to see Higdon/Walker/Evans and Samuel have some huge games.

I will be shocked if Michigan does not play well in all phases on Saturday. ALL phases.

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buddha

October 31st, 2017 at 4:33 PM ^

 I kinda wish Maizen would have focused simply on the perception - or reality - of Pep's and Drevno's recruiting. If Lorenz and others are reporting that neither of those two are really active on the recruiting trail, that seems like an issue. I don't pretend to follow recruiting heavily, and I don't know how tied-in Lorenz is to the program. I do know UMBig11 discussed both Drevno and Pep and their lack of recruiting prowess. That may explain some of our performance to date; although, I probably won't really pay attention to the starzzzz until Signing Day.

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F5

October 31st, 2017 at 6:14 PM ^

If Florida was smart, they would go back the brinks truck up to Dino Babers doorstep. That man is a hell of a coach. Buttttt they will probably fuck this hire up as well

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YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

October 31st, 2017 at 6:46 PM ^

2017 Class: Solomon, Collins, Robbins, Martin, Filiaga, Singleton, Thomas, JKP, Anthony, Ruiz, Bey, DPJ, Black 2016 Class: Kemp, Johnson, Bush, Walker, Crawford, Long, Spanellis, Uche, Bosse, McDoom, Hudson, Hill, Dwumfour, Nordin, Eubanks, Gary That's 50% of all commits that occurred after Halloween - and a ton of talent both recruiting stars and (more importantly) already on the field. The biggest recruiting weekend is also slated for OSU when JH will likely try to flip some kids or bring kids off the radar. Harbaugh clearly has a track record of closing the process with some enthusiasm.

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Navy Wolverine

October 31st, 2017 at 9:25 PM ^

I can't recall but I don't think any of them were.

It seems like Michigan is your classic front runner when it comes to recruiting. Either we get an early commit or have a strong lean and then spend the latter part of the cycle fending off threats from other schools (and their bagmen). We don't get many commits that are clear out of the blue late in the cycle or are flipped from other schools. It makes sense as we tend to get players who value Michigan's overall student-athlete experience.

It would be great to flip (pun intended) that narrative and get some of these top players to decommit from the tire fires they are headed to and come to Michigan. We came so close last year with Najee Harris - maybe Harbaugh can pull it off this year.

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