First Look: 2017 Offense
DEPARTURES IN ORDER OF SIGNIFICANCE.
[Bryan Fuller]
- TE Jake Butt. Mackey win might have been a career award but it was warranted in that context. Sure handed, huge catching radius threat. Blocking indifferent. Butt will be missed by more than last name aficionados. 69% catch rate is nuts. He's off to the second round of the draft unless people are spooked by a bowl-game ACL tear.
- WR Amara Darboh. Delivered on Jim Harbaugh's assertions that he was Michigan's best receiver with an All Big Ten year. Still left you wanting a bit more, though, as he had multiple opportunities to bail Wilton Speight out of iffy throws and took few of them during Michigan's unfortunate finish.
- RT Erik Magnuson. Quiet, steady performer at tackle. Was never a star and I'm a little dubious of people projecting him on day two in the draft, but if Michigan had five Erik Magnusons the year ends very differently. Alas.
- WR Jehu Chesson. Never recaptured his stellar late 2015 form as a senior. Still moderately productive, but only that. Speed did not translate into downfield production, or even many targets. Those went to Darboh, with iffy success.
- RB De'Veon Smith. Workhorse back had solid season. Detractors will point to middling YPC (4.7) relative to the rest of the platoon; this is unfair since Smith got all the short yardage work and was often making yards on his own just to get to that number. Pass protection dipped in senior year.
- LT Ben Braden. Pressed into service at left tackle after Grant Newsome's injury, where he was neither as bad as expected nor actually good. Reduced his tendency to lean on guys as his career went on but never fully excised that from his game. Draft chatter minimal, understandably.
- RG Kyle Kalis. Promising start to senior season submarined by a recurrence of mental errors and then just straight up getting crushed by top-level interior pass rushers. Extravagantly whipped by Jaleel Johnson, Nick Bosa, and DeMarcus Walker in Michigan's losses. I will never say "it can't get worse" in reference to a Michigan offensive line again, but Kalis seems eminently replaceable.
- RB/QB Jabrill Peppers. Offensive output was minimal after wildcat QB business was diagnosed. Effective decoy mostly.
- QB Shane Morris. Never found playing time and is taking a grad transfer.
- OL David Dawson. Announced a grad transfer even before spring practice, further emphasizing how thin Michigan was on the OL this year: either he or the coaches didn't think he had any shot at a job this fall.
WHAT'S LEFT
[Fuller]
- OL Mason Cole. Move to center went relatively well, though I was less into him than PFF was. Had difficulty moving large nose tackle types and didn't get to do much operating in space, oddly. Pass protection was very good once he was removed from edge types, and I might be expecting to much. He had an NFL decision to make at a spot that usually doesn't see a ton of guys go.
- QB Wilton Speight. Debut season was solid statistically: 7.7 YPA, 62% completions, 18-7 TD-INT, third in the Big Ten in passer rating, 29th passing O in S&P+. Michigan's sack rate allowed was pretty good (27th) largely because of Speight's excellent pocket presence. Late wobbles leave the door open a crack for Brandon Peters.
- The rest of the running back platoon. Chris Evans will headline after the bowl game touchdown; Ty Isaac and Karan Higdon also had their moments. Evans is a jittery speedster who promises to hit the home runs Smith could not. Higdon will probably pick up most of the mooseback work since he's a low-to-the-ground guy who runs behinds his pads, as they say. Isaac's never had it click, really, but played well in relatively limited opportunities last year.
- OL Ben Bredeson. Flat out bad most of the year, because he was a true freshman. Should get a lot better, whether it's at guard or tackle. Honestly we should just forget about this season entirely when it comes to projecting him down the road.
- FBs Henry Poggi and Khalid Hill. FB duo was quite a dichotomy. Hill led the team in touchdowns and paved various players on spectacular edge two-for-one blocks while catching 89% of the balls that came his way. Poggi was not the threat as a receiver or runner and was substantially below average as a blocker. Despite this the two FBs split time about down the middle.
- Kaiju. Devin Asiasi and Tyrone Wheatley Jr were mostly blockers. Both were up and down, as freshmen tend to be, flashing A+ power while occasionally falling off dudes. They were not targeted often but made the most of their opportunities. With Butt's absence Michigan will rely more heavily on both; the potential for a Leap from one or both entices.
- TE Ian Bunting. Looked like Butt 2.0 on a slick seam catch in the bowl game, and also looked like Butt 2.0 when he gave up a comically easy sack a few plays later. Previous bullet makes his role in the offense somewhat in question
- (Probably) WR Grant Perry. Legal troubles probably get pled down to misdemeanors and allow him to stay on the team. Slippery slot receiver will have a role if still around.
- RB Drake Johnson. Star-crossed running back lost last season to a forklift accident and will apply for a sixth year. Fast straight-line runner who will find a role.
- OL Juwann Bushell-Beatty. Temporarily the LT after Newsome left. Displaced after struggling mightily.
WHAT'S NEW, OR CLOSE ENOUGH, ANYWAY
Bredeson is a returning starter, sort of[Fuller]
Basically the whole offensive line. For purposes of this bullet we're pretending freshman Ben Bredeson and not freshman Ben Bredeson are different people, because we need that to be the case. Michigan needs to replace three starters and get a transformation from the aforementioned; this is a lot of turnover. Mike Onwenu is penciled in at right guard and unlikely to be dislodged by anything short of a supernova; Bredeson will start somewhere. Cole exists. The other two spots are anyone's guess.
Ditto the receivers. Michigan got some good blocking, one bad drop, and one badass catch from Kekoa Crawford this year; Eddie McDoom took a bunch of jet sweeps and had one nice slant catch; Drake Harris was targeted deep several times, all of those incompletions except for one sweet catch invalidated by an unnecessary offensive pass interference call. That is the sum total of returning experience for the WR corps.
Tight ends in a post-Butt world. Ton of potential at the spot; probably fine; need to see that potential develop.
WHAT'S ROD STEWART 1977
[Fuller]
Probably Wilton Speight. Speight's 2016 did not have the clear takeoff narrative that Jake Rudock did. He was great for a couple games early, then bad, then indifferent, then awesome after the bye week until he turned into a pumpkin a third of the way through Iowa. He was terrific against Ohio State despite an injury that seemed to prevent him from throwing it downfield whatsoever... except for two turnovers 100% on him that lost the game. He gets an incomplete for the Orange Bowl since every time he dropped back he was beset by hounds instantly.
It would be much easier to draw an upward arrow if he'd packed the bad stuff in early and then got a lot better; unfortunately that is not the case. I'm still a Speight optimist for three reasons:
- Harbaugh. This should be self-explanatory but if you need a refresher here's the QB season preview.
- Speight seems to have the hardest thing down: pocket presence. His ability to turn garbage into first downs is exceptional for a guy his size.
- His good periods came after an opportunity to take a breather and focus on the things Harbaugh was coaching him to do. Speight was hot at the beginning of the season, after the bye, and after he missed the Indiana game. As we go along here he should be more that guy than the one who forgot and reverted to high school/Borges stuff when the heat got turned up.
Also, redshirt sophomores generally get better. It's not a big step from where he's currently at to an All Big Ten type season.
The three to five horsemen. I really like Chris Evans and Karan Higdon, and with Johnson, Isaac, Kareem Walker, and O'Maury Samuels also available this looks set to be a very deep and good running back crew. It may lack the out and out star that Najee Harris would have provided; I'm not stressing about the ballcarriers not getting what they should. All three returners graded significantly positively on PFF (relative to workload).
Blocky/catchy blocking. If one or both Kaiju takes a Williams-esque step forward and Hill gets most of the fullback work, Michigan's ability to generate yards off tackle will take a big step forward. Butt was an excellent player overall; he was average-at-best as a blocker.
WHAT'S ROD STEWART 2017
Newsome's injury recover is critical [Bill Rapai]
Tackle. Hoke's OL recruiting was, in a word, disastrous. Michigan enters 2017 with exactly one Hoke-recruited OT: Bushell-Beatty. That means Michigan will have to do two of the following:
- Get Grant Newsome back from a terrifying injury that kept him in the hospital for over a month. (FWIW, there's been some chatter that Newsome's injury doesn't have an unusually lengthy prognosis despite the hospital stay.)
- Move Mason Cole back to the tackle spot he couldn't pass protect at.
- Move Ben Bredeson out to tackle, where he might have the same issues Cole does.
- Start Bushell-Beatty, who got beat up by Rutgers last year.
- Start Nolan Ulizio, a low-rated redshirt sophomore.
- Start a true freshman.
Two of those options might work out really well. But probably not.
WHAT'S HEISENBERG ROD STEWART UNCERTAINTY
[Patrick Barron]
The guys on the end of Speight passes. Young receivers are usually bad. Of late, however, you're seeing a couple guys a year break through as true freshmen. Michigan has a couple of candidates in the 2017 class. Both Tarik Black and Donovan Peoples-Jones enrolled early, and both seem like sharp guys who will pick up the offense quickly. Add those guys to the McDoom/Crawford/Johnson troika that the coaching staff is high on and Drake Harris and it's not too hard to see Michigan being at least as good as they were this year.
Or they could be first-and-second year guys and run into each other on the regular. Ask again later.
Meanwhile, Michigan has a solid candidate to do Butt stuff in Ian Bunting. Still a difficult ask for anyone to live up to Butt's ability to reel in anything in his area.
The interior OL. At guard, a dropoff is unlikely from a true freshman and a guy who ended up –12 on the season per PFF. Michigan needs to do much more than tread water, though. Mike Onwenu is a unique prospect at one spot, and Bredeson will either be a lot better... or playing tackle, and then the other guard spot is a series of question marks. Cole stabilizes; whether or not these guys are any good is still very much an open question.
The Pep effect. Is Pep Hamilton an upgrade on Jedd Fisch? Does it even matter when Harbaugh's running things?
MANDATORY WILD ASS GUESS
Another mediocre season is in the offing unless Michigan gets a Christmas miracle an the offensive line that will probably feature one upperclassman and is 50/50 to sport another true freshman. That is a tough hill to climb for anyone. The skill positions should be good but are likely a year away from being able to offer win-games-on-our-own help—again Michigan is all but devoid of upperclassmen.
A projected Speight uptick is the main reason for optimism; it's asking a lot of him to be Andrew Luck in an environment where he's going to be running away an awful lot.
The good news is good news about 2018, when Michigan loses only a few projected contributors: Mason Cole, the fullbacks, Drake Johnson, and Ty Isaac. Whatever they find this year will enter 2018 just about unscathed.
January 12th, 2017 at 2:16 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 2:42 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 3:38 PM ^
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January 12th, 2017 at 3:40 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 6:14 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 2:17 PM ^
Khalid has incredible skills in short yardage situations. Hey Pep - 1st and goal from the 1 = 4 straight FB dives. I would encourage the OC to hold up a sign to the offense that says "hammering panda". Go ahead and tell the defense, because it won't matter. Khalid can angle left or right, or straight up the guard's backside ... and we will score a TD. The other very impressive aspect of Khalid's gmae is his great hands. He can catch the ball out of backfield, a great play action target on 2nd or 3rd down.
The offensive prowess slowly declined during 2016. Not sure why ... maybe Speight was slightly injured, or maybe the offense lost direction in the red zone (ie - play calling) ... but Khalid will be a major factor in 2017.
January 12th, 2017 at 2:19 PM ^
Michigan fans are suffering from a little battered wife syndrome because of the last 10 years.
Great coaches make shit happen. Having a returning starting QB is huge.
Not worried about 2017.
January 12th, 2017 at 2:23 PM ^
Did I miss something? Is Kugler gone?
January 12th, 2017 at 2:30 PM ^
Brian may have some insider knowledge that he will be gone. Or he's just operating on the idea that if he couldn't beat out Kalis or a true freshman this year, he probably isn't beating out a RS-freshman or true freshman in his last year on campus, either.
January 12th, 2017 at 3:16 PM ^
what about Runyan?
wasn't he recruited as a C prospect?
That could kick out Cole to LT and Ruiz to G
January 12th, 2017 at 6:09 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 6:07 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 2:27 PM ^
Think with young offensive and defensive talent we will lose a game on the road we shouldn't and win a game you wouldn't expect (I'm guessing at psu). Florida is also returning a bunch so I think there is an outside shot if we can split at psu and at wisconsin we could go into the game against osu with a shot at the east title.
January 13th, 2017 at 12:14 AM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 2:29 PM ^
Year - Team National Recruiting Ranking - Head Coach - OL players (stars)
2004 - 60th - Buddy Teevens - A.Smith(4), B Muth (3), A. Fletcher (4)
2005 - 25th - Walt Harris - C. Marinelli (3) (just one OL player recruited !!!!!!)
2006 - 59th - Walt Harris - A. Phillips (3), McBride (3), J.Kyed (3), Dembesky (3)
2007 - 45th - Jim Harbaugh - Hallick (3), Mabry (3), Hulamandaris (3), Bentler (2)
2008 - 45th - Jim Harbaugh - DeCastro(3), J. Martin (3)
2009 - 17th - Jim Harbaugh - K. Wilkes (3), K. Danser (3)
2010 - 25th - Jim Harbaugh - Underwood (3), Bonnell (3), Yankey (3)
Still interesting that:
- Harbaugh never had a Top 15 class in 4 years at Stanford. Difficult to do anyway
- Harbaugh never recruited a 4 star or 5 star OL player in 4 years. Stanford had only two 4 stars at OL on the Harbaugh roster, Smith and Fletcher, who were recruited by Buddy Teevens.
- For some reason Harbaugh did not/could not recruit big numbers of OL in his 2nd and 3rd years as head coach at Stanford.
- The previous recruiting classes of Harris and Harbaugh make a 12-1 2010 Orange Bowl season kind of ridiculous.
January 12th, 2017 at 3:13 PM ^
Look at how that's paid off down the road. Stanford just pulled two 5* linemen.
January 13th, 2017 at 12:08 AM ^
To expand upon that, just two years after Harbaugh left they hauled in:
5-Star OT Andres Peat
5-Star OT Kyle Murphy
4-Star OG Josh Garnett (member him?)
4-Star OG Graham Schuler
and
4-Star OG Brandon Fanaika
Kind of one of those "if you build it" type scenarios
January 12th, 2017 at 2:30 PM ^
The 50-50 split on snaps for the fullbacks could be an appraoch to keep guys fresh. Didn't Harbaugh do a similar thing the previous year?
Maybe the reason the Hammering Panda was so effective, was that he was fresh at key moments at a physically demanding position.
January 12th, 2017 at 2:54 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 2:32 PM ^
Also youth is no longer an excuse for mediocre seasons. Three of the playoff teams this year were extremely young. Osu was the youngest team in the country, Washington started 6 sophmores, Bama was 116th in returning experience. Even Clemosn was 101. The best teams deal with youth and still have good years.
January 12th, 2017 at 3:06 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 3:34 PM ^
They also all had excellent QBs, and great offensive weapons. Ohio State had the least of any of the three, and they got smoked.
January 12th, 2017 at 9:40 PM ^
What I'm saying is that youth is a big challenge. Where we agree is that I don't think we should be okay with 7-5. But expecting this roster to make the playoffs is a big reach. 10 wins would be good. 8 or less is disappointing.
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January 12th, 2017 at 2:50 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 3:40 PM ^
The "resisting arrest" was trying to run away, not punching a cop. That's dime store stuff in a college town. The sexual assault was 4th degree which is certainly bad but nothing like the charges that have been leveled against various local athletes in Lansing. It's all tied together by the 4th charge: minor in possession. Unless the judge wants to punish Perry for playing for UM theses charges will probably be pled down to misdemeanors, as Brian suggested. For better or worse, our society is fairly tolerant of kids getting drunk and doing something stupid unless it involves driving or results in serious harm to a victim.
January 12th, 2017 at 4:14 PM ^
I doubt this will help him at all, but the Michigan legislature either just passed or is in the process of trying to pass legislation that moves minor in possession charges down to citation level.
Depending on the details of the "touching" charge, I tend to agree he'll be back with no further on-field punishment.
January 12th, 2017 at 4:19 PM ^
I get they could be pled down, but running from an officer (and apparently him getting (slightly) injured in the pursuit) is still not a good look. I mean, if he hit an officer then he'd be off the team in all likelihood. And while the 4th-degree sexual assault is probably related to some inappropriate touching outside a club, that's still a pretty serious claim if you think about it. I wasn't there, obviously, but it sounds like he woman told him to stop touching him and he didn't. I assume this will get pled down, and this is the old fogey in me I guess, but I'm not crazy about this being swept under the rug the way I think some fans will.
January 12th, 2017 at 6:01 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 9:44 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 4:30 PM ^
There are many practicing MGoAttorneys here that can correct me if this is wrong. CSC 4th is a misdemeanor and can mean basically unconsented touching.
January 12th, 2017 at 4:45 PM ^
Yup. Slap someone on the ass who doesn't want to be slapped on the ass, and that's 4th degree CSC.
January 12th, 2017 at 3:01 PM ^
I think Walker will be the one to step up at RB outside of Evans. I highly doubt D.Johnson will be a factor. His skills are already represented with Evans. Evans is just better at them.
January 12th, 2017 at 3:04 PM ^
If Drevno departs, do we promote internally to replace him or is there an O line guru out there we can poach?
We're losing seniority on the O line, there will be almost no depth there, and if we do lose Drevno then 2017 may forever be known as a "painful transition year." That's just too much loss and weakness in a crucial area.
January 12th, 2017 at 3:04 PM ^
seems a little high to be ranked as the 4th biggest loss. He finished with only 500 yards receiving and 63 yards rushing. Junior season Chesson is a big loss, but senior season Chesson had zero VORP.
Interesting to note that Brian ranks his loss above Smith, Braden and Kalis. Chesson didn't even make honorable mention all big 10. Smith was honorable mention and Braden and Kalis were 2nd teamers.
Watching the Clemson-Alabama game was eye-opening to me. Clemson didn't give Watson much time to throw, but he was able to throw a couple jump balls to Mike Williams and expect Williams to jump over the head of the DB and make a play. I didn't see Chesson or Darboh do that once this year. I saw Chesson cost us the Iowa game by letting the DB steal the ball from him. We lost 2 road games and a "neutral site" game by 2 points in regulation. That sucks, but it's no reason to get overly critical of the offensive line.
One could also blame the three losses on these factors:
Iowa: fumbled KR to start 2nd half, Chesson letting ball get intercepted, Darboh crucial drop, Speight's injury (they showed someone looking at his shoulder after every series in the 2nd half,) stupid face mask penalty on last Iowa punt return.
OSU: fumbled snap - only one this whole season, two Speight INTs (one on Speight, one on the RBs failure to pick up the blitz,) the refs.
FSU: multiple defensive lapses that gave up big plays - an elite defense shouldn't give up 33 points to anybody, missing Peppers, offensive coordinator late in adjusting for speed rush of Walker
It's a team game. This need to single out one position group and lay the blame at their feet is misguided and contrary to Schembechlerian "THE TEAM, THE TEAM, THE TEAM," ethic.
January 12th, 2017 at 3:53 PM ^
Darboh did have some clutch acrobatic receptions at MSU. Agree that he didn't have many afterwards, though.
January 12th, 2017 at 4:17 PM ^
He can make acrobatic catches when the situation is right, but he was unremarkable at adjusting to the ball in the air when he needed to (there was a deep pass down the middle in the CO game that wasn't accurately thrown but could have been in range, and Darboh absolutely biffed his adjustment to it, as an example). He's not a jump-in-the-air-and-get-it guy.
And Chesson was terrible at that sort of thing. Not terrible at all things, but at adjusting to the ball in the air. No feel for when to hesitate, or come back to the ball. Bad body position. Often falling away from the ball instead of rising toward it (he is falling backwards away from Speight as Iowa is making that backbreaking interception). And Chesson did not get very open when covered one-on-one, either.
The net effect is that Speight had small windows to throw into and he knew it. My hope is that DPJ can be the kind of guy that Speight can just toss the ball to in a tight spot and make a play on it.
January 12th, 2017 at 4:52 PM ^
Yeah, even though the WR corp next season will be entirely new and unproven and that's generally bad, I'm not terribly worried about them because of everything you said about this year's group. Even though the replacements are young, they appear to be better natural receivers. And to use the same Notre Dame example I used elsewhere in this thread, its not like Michigan has to replace an entire WR corp AND someone like Will Fuller.
January 12th, 2017 at 4:20 PM ^
He'd be easier to replace if Darboh wasn't leaving too. I know we're losing a bunch of OL, but WR is a group that's going from good and reliable to relying on a lot of potential. The OL worries me too, but not so much the dropoff from Kalis and Braden to their replacements. I'm not concerned about a dropoff in RB play even though Smith was pretty good.
January 12th, 2017 at 5:02 PM ^
I'd only classify Butt as good and reliable. Down the stretch Darboh and Chesson were pretty unreliable to my eyes. Just too many drops and an inability to make important catches. I mean, combined they had 25 catches and 205 yards, and one TD in Michigan's final four games. That's extremely replaceable to me.
January 12th, 2017 at 10:40 PM ^
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January 12th, 2017 at 4:45 PM ^
- an elite defense shouldn't give up 33 points to anybody,In this day and age I don't know if you can still say that. Bama gave up 43 to Ole Miss. Clemson gave up 43 to Pitt. Plus, that last TD had a lot to do with the kickoff return.
January 12th, 2017 at 3:08 PM ^
Hopefully everyone who is not currently hurt is healthy for the Spring game. That game should tell us a lot. If it's a 7-0 game, fall camp is going to be hell for the players. If it's a 24-14 game, fall camp is going to be hell for the players.
We have job openings for 2017 and Harbaugh looking to fill them!
January 12th, 2017 at 3:10 PM ^
Brian, I find your conclusions interesting because what I read seemed to suggest that the OL was mediocre to good and the replacements have a chance to be much more talented though inexperienced. Same with the receivers.
That to me sounds like the baseline should be somewhere around 2015 OL with the big question marks being depth and development. With the exception of Florida and maybe PSU, there is not a really talented D-line until November. It doesn't seem like a miracle is needed for 10+ wins next year.
January 12th, 2017 at 4:23 PM ^
I think 10 is possible. I also think 5 losses is possible. We got 10 wins this year and lose almost all of our defense and big parts of the OL.
The talent for the future is unquestionable, and I think we'll see flashes of real greatness this year. But also headscratching disappointments. And we have some tough games to play.
January 12th, 2017 at 4:27 PM ^
The 2015 offense averaged 4.2 ypc and 158 ypg rushing.
The 2016 offense averaged 4.8 ypc and 213 ypg rushing.
I think the baseline for 2017 is closer to 2015 and people are going to be really upset with the line. Maybe they'll get a pass based on inexperience.
We had three games this season decided by less than a TD. We lost them all. I think we'll need to win all the close games next season to finish with 10 wins. Not saying it isn't possible, but I think the over/under for next season should be 8.5 wins.
January 12th, 2017 at 5:04 PM ^
8.5 feels right to me. People will vehemently disagree with that O/U, but I think its about right.
January 12th, 2017 at 3:24 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 3:27 PM ^
Fella didn't even get his name mentioned once in the whole piece. Are we to read into this? Davis seems like a viable steamroller to me. Was there any chatter about him (good or bad) from bowl practices?
January 12th, 2017 at 3:44 PM ^
The comments on him have suggested he may seek a transfer.
January 12th, 2017 at 3:44 PM ^
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