The Talent Differential
I see how the board is full of 'how this team has underperformed yadda yadda.
Our talent differential compared to elite programs is still too wide
Consider this. Since 2013
- We have 4 recruits with 247 score above 98, OSU has 15, Alabama 26!!
- Put another way, for every Peppers we have, OSU has 4 equivalent difference makers, Alabama has 6.5 equivalent difference makers.
It doesn't get any better when we look lower down the depth chart.
- We have 21 recruits above a composite score of 95 since 2013, OSU has 44, Alabama 55
The point I'm trying to make is that unless we get an equivalent number of difference makers, having program that contends for National Championships is a pipedream. Unfortunately, all the top programs have similar high level player development and facilities. It comes down to having players with the highest ceilings and developing them to their potential.
Underperform is what OSU did (against Clemson).
Clemson had 16 recruits above a composite score of 95 ... compared to OSU - who had 33!You can tack some of that to youth but not all of it.
January 2nd, 2017 at 8:09 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:27 PM ^
No, no it is not. It is a huge part of reaching conference title, CFP level play, but it is not the end-all of coaching.
Stargazerz.........
January 3rd, 2017 at 6:09 AM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:43 PM ^
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January 2nd, 2017 at 12:05 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:02 AM ^
We didn't have enough at OL and QB which are two of the most important positions on the team. If we didn't have good WRs or RBs we could probably scheme a way out of it. OL and QB are everything on offense.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:23 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:45 AM ^
A commenter in another thread today was puzzled by Georgia's success in spite of an 8-5 record, and some Jeremy Crabtree guy was quoted on ESPN about this:
"The biggest difference between Kirby Smart and Mark Richt on the recruiting trail? In-state recruiting domination. There were times in Richt's time at UGA where he did well locally, but in his final few years in Athens a lot of top talent went elsewhere. But Smart is ruling recruiting in the Peach State with pledges from the top three, five of the top six and six of the top 10 players in Georgia. Smart has deep recruiting roots in Georgia from his time as an assistant coach at Florida State, LSU, Georgia and Alabama and they're paying off with the Dawgs' best in-state recruiting efforts in years."
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:04 AM ^
Yeah, well it looks like Solomon is going to Bama tho...so there's 3 other players rated higher than him in GA? DAMN, Michigan needs to make better babies!
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:12 AM ^
The socio-cultural demographics of where and why the best high school athletes are located is an interesting topic, to say the least.
Whatever the reasons, it's clear that the Big Ten is at a recruiting disadvantage compared to the SEC and ACC, and probably the PAC 12 too.
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:38 AM ^
Urbz does not seem to be at a recruiting disadvantage.
That's really the ultimate pisser of getting robbed in Cbus. Lets them get to keep counting how many years this century they've beaten us. Got them in the playoff (for all the good that did them). Mainly allowed them to continue the notion that they're dominating the B1G and the entire non-deep South tier of college football in general.
That's the narrative we need to change. Finding Solomons will continue to be a Harbaugh specialty, getting them to actually come will be another challenge.
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:57 AM ^
Ohio is a football state, plain and simple.
Michgan, may suprise you, based on proportional professional output, is actually a hockey state.
January 2nd, 2017 at 5:43 AM ^
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January 2nd, 2017 at 8:52 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:15 AM ^
Wasn't Richt supposed to be one of the cleaner coaches in the SEC, or am I thinking of someone else? Maybe that was their, uh, problem that Smart (a Saban protégé) has resolved.
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:09 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:14 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 3:25 AM ^
This has probably already been said, but I will just go ahead and not check because I cannot believe this is something getting so much debate.
We're going likely be top 3 or 4.
It's going to take a SERIES of seasons of ass kickings to get us to #2 or #1.
We are out-recruiting 2 of the 4 teams in the playoff, and one of the teams that is above us just lost to one of the ones down below us.
Think about that differential. I understand there have been a few frustrating losses.. Iowa sucked, OSU game was a fucking shit sandwitch from many perspectives, and the bowl game was a fairytale Peppers-less ending that was snatched away, and we had to watch one of our favorite/most deserving players suffer a terrible injury.
But also think about the fact that we just had those terrible series of events happen and STILL are doing better than almost every single other team in the FBS, and that we just had consequtive seasons with 10 or more wins... that easily could have been a few more.
We just went from a decade of shit to being considered playoff contenders. We're still missing some pieces, but things are looking better all the time in the big scheme of things.
January 2nd, 2017 at 7:49 AM ^
To get to #1 might take bagmen and steroids for years like Bama has been using. I'd rather not even try to stoop that low and yeah, considering how terrible things were for a decade i'd be thrilled with #2...which we basically were this season
January 2nd, 2017 at 5:16 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 6:08 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 6:56 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 7:44 AM ^
Speight's shoulder, for a starter. Or did you think that O'Korn was the QB in the next game just because?
January 2nd, 2017 at 7:17 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 7:18 AM ^
Bama has had bad nights like we had at Iowa. 20 year old kids on the road type deal. They have more talent so they can hide it easier. Talent is the difference maker all other things being more or less equal. Michigan did it this year with experience and coaching first, talent lagging.
It wasn't bad talent. It was actually good. Good like what gets you nowhere in big games against prepared teams with elite talent. You don't have to have all the elite talent or even most, but you have to go deeper than Peppers, maybe Jordan Lewis, and a very raw Rashan Gary. If you want to hang with the big boys.
January 2nd, 2017 at 10:41 AM ^
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January 2nd, 2017 at 11:13 AM ^
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January 2nd, 2017 at 7:47 AM ^
It's not a pipe dream at all, what season did you watch? UM by all rights beat Ohio on the road and made the playoff and that's the opponent you hold up as unbeatable with the current talent? Coaching does matter, so they overperformed, i agree. But they keep the same coaches for the forseeable future, so top 5 class or not, should definitely be competing for the playoff. Whether they can beat the heavily cheating Bama is another question. Probably do need more talent for that, especially on the OL, but guess what, there is top 5 classes now. Not sure what you're on about
January 2nd, 2017 at 8:05 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 10:45 AM ^
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January 2nd, 2017 at 9:01 AM ^
Culture and team mindset. Players don't go to Alabama for the education or set themselves up after college or football. They go there to win football games. Nick Saban isn't there to babysit these kids, he's there to win. He's not there to make sure they are going to classes and getting good grades, he's there to win. He's not there to build their character, he's there to win. He's not there to see that they become pillars in the community, he's there to win.
He'll oversign, blue shirt, gray shirt, slice & dice his roster to do whatever it takes to win. Alabama's program is run like a pro team. Only the best get picked to go there and only the best get to stay on the roster. Alabama's program has nothing to do with education or schooling and therefore has no binding ethics to adhere to.
January 2nd, 2017 at 9:04 AM ^
We lost by one point. Let's be reasonable. I noticed a similar speed differential in the 2000 Orange Bowl between Alabama and Michigan, and we won that game. If we have OL who can move the LOS, we'll be fine.
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January 2nd, 2017 at 9:38 AM ^
I saw receivers who could get separation and we had NFL linemen. We also had a QB who has the best career of any player on that field.
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January 2nd, 2017 at 9:39 AM ^
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January 2nd, 2017 at 10:35 AM ^
In my opinion (and I've said this before), Harbaugh has done a better job of recruiting skill positions especially out of state than Hoke did. Until Harbaugh (and not since Carr), we haven't been getting the speedy skill athletes to compete.
I'm generally optimistic because I do like the direction of recruiting. Expecting the number one or two class in recruiting every year is simply not realistic with Michigan. We can expect top 5-10 classes consistently, however, and that should be enough assuming we get the right pieces and good coaching.
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January 2nd, 2017 at 10:37 AM ^
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January 2nd, 2017 at 9:07 AM ^
Nick Saban hired 1/2007
Dabo Swinney interim coach 10/2008; permanent 12/2008
Urban Meyer hired in 11/2011; plus, he built on Tressel's foundation (1/2001)
JMFH hired 12/2014
Jimmy gets 1 month to hire a staff and recruit. Class rank, per 247, is 37th after 2015 NSD.
After 1 year at Michigan, class rank, per 247, is 6th after 2016 NSD.
After 2 years, a top 5 class is a lock. Maybe top 3 if cards fall our way on 2017 NSD.
I know this is cliche, but Rome wasn't built in a day. Nor was 'Bama, Clem$on or t0$u. Ref. above tenure's for their coaches.
We will be fine. No doubt.
Remember, patience is a virtue.
And we are doing it the RIGHT way.
Go Blue!
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January 2nd, 2017 at 10:25 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:09 PM ^
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January 2nd, 2017 at 12:20 PM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 9:14 AM ^
This team was a big dissapointment...No Div or conference title ANOTHER loss to OSU , lost 3 of the last 4 and the bowl game...This team could not win the big games and collapsed at the end in all the losses...Sorry not much to be optomistic about and with the major graduations next year will be a step back...
January 2nd, 2017 at 9:50 AM ^
No moral victories. But relax. 5-7 was two years ago...
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January 2nd, 2017 at 10:34 AM ^
But the oline must get more dominate because the offense depends on it. It a pro style offense. Oline play is critical. Spring practice will be very interesting to see who steps up to replace the starters.
January 2nd, 2017 at 9:29 AM ^
So can we admit that Hoke wasn't as good a recruiter as we all were led to believe 4 or 5 years ago?
January 2nd, 2017 at 10:54 AM ^
We have talent — young talent. But most of it is fringe top 200 type guys. We need more top 100 guys to compete with Alabama and Clemson.
January 2nd, 2017 at 11:07 AM ^
Eh. Maybe. Is it coincidence that we have good talent as spots like CB or DE but that the talent is weakest at OL and maybe QB which are the two most development intensive areas? Still think it comes down to coaching and Borges/Funk are a big factor. Not only factor.
The 2012 and 2013 classes look fine if you look back at them retrospectively with the exception of the lack of OL development. Some of the problems were attrition stuff. 2013 OL was a fail but some of that was not really on Hoke with Bosch/LTT. 2014 does not look good but that's not surprising as we kind of knew at that point the wheels were coming off and so did the recruits.
January 2nd, 2017 at 9:48 AM ^
End of story.
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January 2nd, 2017 at 10:30 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 10:01 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 10:30 AM ^