Is the 2016 team better than the 2006 team? Do you expect a big drop off in 2017?

maybe except for rushing attack. The offense was lighting people up for much of the year and the defense did light people up all year. Having Peppers as a returner plus all the blocks we got this year only seals it.

Does that 2006 offense score on the 2016 defense?

I'll ride with 2016 over any UM team I can remember (basically starting in 2002), and probably by a wide margin. Comparing S&P from different seasons seems like apples to oranges, so I don't think it should be taken as gospel, but 2006 was +21.6 (2nd nationally) to 2016's +31.6 (also 2nd).

Our coaching on both sides is far superior. Our defensive talent is probably about equal. Special teams now is a major upgrade (Breaston was very good, but I think the overall picture unit is better and smarter now). Offensive talent was better in 2006, but deployment and the conservative gameplan hindered their success. If this group had the 2006 OL, we're probably the #2 seed to Bama in the playoff. 

Hard to make an assement of next year without knowing a lot about each team on the schedule but its hard to come up with a meaningful arguement that the team will perform as well as 2016 version.  PSU and Wisco on the road is just about as difficult as OSU and Iowa and I can't assume that MSU will continue to be a total mess.  Also not convinced playing AF and their crazy offense with a young defense is a cakewalk...

Also as good as people expect this class to be... freshman typically are not good, WR and OL in particular, and these are the areas we seem to be in need of.

I expect OSU to be significantly better and UM to be signifcantly worse so unless something unforseen happens I'd be assuming 9-10 win ceiling.

so not a major dropoff. Defense will still be very good but not elite. Offense should be much improved but also not elite. I think 2018 is when it comes together except the schedule is not as favorable

Offensively...no. A lot of our offense was smoke and mirrors. It worked in the beginning because teams didn't know what we were doing. When it got figured out the better D's were able to handle the trickery. And our run game faltered down the stretch against a couple of the better defenses. With Harbaugh as coach the 2006 offense would have put up a bajillion more points than it did, there was so much top tier talent on that unit.

According to the computers (looking at Massey, Sagarin, FPI), this years team is better.

Remembering how the 2006 team ended the season with the D getting ripped by both OSU and USC is more telling than breaking down individual players. If the pass rush didn't get home the DBs could be abused. The 2006 D got abused twice in ways that the 2016 D has completely avoided.

The 2006 offense was probably more talented but rarely seemed to live up to expectation.

I think the biggest improvement from 2006 to 2016 is in the coaching. The offensive play calling is loads better.

Next year should be the first where Harbaugh-recruited players appear at most positions. Although the players may be younger in key skill positions, methinks we shouldn't expect too much of a dropoff(if at all).

2006 team was better. However the coaching on 2016 team is better. The competition in 2016 is worse. But that's just my opinion.

had one more year eligibility left, I think we go undefeated and give Alabama a good run in the championship game. Wilton, wilted in the Iowa game and that 2nd INT just turned the OSU game around in the bad guys favor.

I expect a drop off, and I think anyone who doesn't is crazy.

Offense: Next year we have no proven receivers except maybe Perry. We're replacing 3/5 of the offensive line and still don't know if Newsome will be able to play. Speight hasn't shown me that he's the kind of QB you can take into a hostile environment and count on given his performances against OSU and Iowa. I don't really have an issue with the RBs, as I'm content with rotating Evans, Isaac, and Higdon.

Defense: We're losing essentially the entire secondary, and will be counting heavily on at least one of Long and Hill, if not both depending on Clark, to mature quickly. I think Kinnel is going to be a fine starter at one safety spot, but I'm not sure about Metellus/Hudson at the other right now. LB is going to be an adventure; I'd feel a touch more comfortable if Hudson takes over for Peppers' role instead of Furbursh - it's certainly a large dropoff either way though. Replacing Gedeon with Bush is certainly a downgrade to start the season. The starting DL, assuming Hurst does come back, is good, but there's very little depth there. Winovich isn't quite a three-down WDE yet, Dwumfour is our only real backup DT right now and I don't think he's ready, and the young DEs not named Gary are wholly unproven.

The schedule next year I'm not so sure about.

- Florida luckily has no offense to challenge our 9ish new defensive starters, but they return a lot from a pretty good defense (#6 S&P). Cincinnati and Air Force are middling teams that we shouldn't have too much of an issue with.
- Purdue and Minnesota as cross-over games is nice, and should be wins. I don't see Rutgers or Maryland improving extensively, and Indiana losing Wilson might take a lot of that chaos out. I don't think MSU is as bad as their record was, but also don't think they're going to be very good next year without McDowell propping up a bad front 7. Scott, Corley, and Lewerke isn't a bad place to start on offense, but there's also not much else there. We should win all 6 of those games.
- Wisconsin and PSU on the road are going to be tough, as both return just about every important player. OSU also returns just about everyone. I know we turned PSU into a fine paste, but that offense really started putting things together by the end of the year. They'll still not have an OL next year, but our DL also won't be as good. We could easily lose all 3 of those games, and I would expect us to be underdogs barring complete collapse from any of them.

Right now I'd say 9-3 is the ceiling for the team next year, whereas I think you could simulate this past season a thousand times and never fall below 9-3.

What are the odds that Brandon Peters surpasses Speight before opening game 2017? 

I think overall 2006 was stronger in most positions outside the secondary and linebackers.  

Offense

QB: Henne > Speight, especially given injury. 

RB: Mike Hart is probably better? More or less a wash given this squad has more versatility.  

FB: Harbaugh actually uses this position whereas this, if anything, seemed to get in the way of Mike Hart.  

WR: 2006 may have had the best WR talent that has ever been at Michigan at the same time.

OL: Jake Long went first overall for a reason - this line was loaded with talent.  Our OL this year, if anything, was a group of scrappy over-performers more than a truly dominating force.  Great in pass protection but wasn't the rungame force that we had in '06.  

TE: Again, a position that Lloyd didn't get enough value from in the Debord offense.  I'm not sure positionally 2016 is any better because this wasn't part of the zone left-run-screen-punt scheme that was used in a way that mattered.  

Defense

DL: We've got a great DL this year but it's arguably not as complete of a unit as we had in '06.  They basically solo-carried the '06 defense because our defense didn't know how to use linebackers back then for anything other than blowing coverage on slot recievers.  It's only by a half-step over this year's unit, but I think '06 gets the edge here.

LB: Far and away the biggest advantage 2016 has over 2006.  2006 the linebacking corps was something of a question mark (remember Woodley was a DE in college despite playing LB in the NFL), it's turned into a swiss army knife of destruction under Don Brown.  Don Brown is one of the greatest LB-using geniuses in the history of football and Ron English was a total hack that absolutely wasted every bit of talent handed to him, so this is no big surprise.  

CB: Leon Hall may have been as good as Jourdan Lewis, but Morgan Trent was a massive liability as often as not whereas Stribling, while mortal, is overall a very good corner.  So call it a wash for the first slot, but 2006 had zero depth and definitely would have been a dumpster fire if they were forced to absorb a Jeremy Clark level injury.    

Safety: The 2006 job for safeties was to read a book and be sad when they actually had to play vs Ohio State.  While 2016 wasn't exactly the most standout unit among exceptional squads on this defense, it actually contributed.  

So yeah, overall 2016 is a better team but 2006 probably had slightly better players on the roster.  

The 2016 stats won't be final until after the bowl but here is the tale of the tape at this point. Pretty decisively for 2016.

F/+
2006: #5 (52.7%)
2016: #3 (63.8%)

S&P+
2006: #2 (97.5%; 21.6 margin)
2016: #2 (99.5%; 31.3 margin)

FEI
2006: #8 (.223)
2016: #3 (.257)

Sagarin
2006: #7 (90.74; 88.73 predictor)
2016: #3 (99.72; 101.54 predictor)

Massey
2006: #9 (2.23; 66.31 pwr rating)
2016: #6 (2.26; 78.44 pwr rating)

SRS
2006: #7 (16.66)
2016: #4 (19.92)

I can't render a full verdict on 2016 vs. 2006 until the bowl game. 2006 felt like a great season, even with the loss to OSU, until the USC disaster. USC didn't just beat Michigan in that game: They exposed the program past and future. 

What they exposed is that Michigan was good at accruing talent and putting it on the field, but it did not know how to use the talent it had and wasn't that great at developing guys who weren't blue chips. 

Michigan had the talent to compete with USC in that game. Chad Henne? Mario Manningham? Steve Breaston? Just as much passing game talent as USC had. But Michigan refused to use it, an issue visible even at the time if you review Brian's frustrated offensive UFRs from that year. Run-run-pass. Run-run-pass. As long as the game was close, the Carr-Debord dynasty saw no reason to change what wasn't working.

So that bowl game changed my opinion; I must reserve judgement until I see what Michigan does against a talented Florida State team that seems like a great matchup for us. If we win, I think this team must be considered better than 2006. Unlike 2006, the great defense did not let us down against Ohio State. Unlike 2006, Michigan did not squander copious offensive talent with poor gameplans and meh coaching. Instead, Michigan turned a 3-star redshirt sophomore QB, a couple of off-the-pile receivers, a mediocre offensive line, and a mixed stable of running backs into a capable offense that was nearly good enough to propel us to the national title.

2016 is less talented overall than 2006 (more on defense, must less on offense) but has much better coaching.

Next year? You don't replace generationally great players on defense and a host of other important starters and not feel it. What is good is that there is athleticism ready to step in, and Don Brown's teams usually have a second year "bump" as they learn the system. Hopefully those two factors help mitigate the losses.

But I would be very surprised if Michigan made a top four of the playoff committee at any time next season.

If you're talking about Lloyd leading the '06 team against Harbaugh leading the '16 team, I probably take the '16 team.

That said, you coach 'em up the same and scheme them the same and I take the '06 team. The '06 team was loaded with NFL-caliber talent on both sides of the ball and, perhaps more importantly, the offensive stars were also incredibly explosive college players as well. This '16 team has a lot of second-third day of the draft NFL guys on offense who were solid but not spectacular college players. Henne had arguably the best college career of any Michigan QB. Mike Hart the same at running back. Avant-Breaston-Arrington were spectacular at their respective roles at receiver. The offense has some solid guys who will play in the NFL but other than maybe Butt, I'm not sure anyone is someone we will look back on as an all-time Michigan great.

The defenses you could probably argue either way. Other than Woodson, Jabrill and Lewis are maybe the 2nd and 3rd best secondary players in M history (apologies to Cato June). The D-Line has been great. But '06 produced guys like Leon Hall, Lamarr Woodley and David Harris who each turned in decade long NFL careers and produced a bunch of Pro Bowls between them.