Examining Michigan's possible (barring extreme chaos) bowl games and opponents.

Submitted by SpikeFan2016 on

There is an extremely miniscule chance Michigan somehow makes the playoff (all three of the following would have to likely have to happen: Clemson loses to Virginia Tech, Colorado beats Washington, Penn State beats Wisconsin in a very flukey way by a razor thin margin. Oklahoma winning over Oklahoma State by a very small/flukey margin helps as well). 

 

However, realistically we have two possible destinations: the Orange Bowl in Miami, Florida (likely) or the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.

 

Rose Bowl:

What needs to happen:

  • Two Big Ten teams must make the playoff. Michigan is guaranteed to be at worst the third highest ranked Big Ten team (we will be ahead of the loser of the title game given their third loss and our head to head victory). The Rose Bowl takes the Big Ten Champion if they are not in the playoff, otherwise they take the highest ranked team from the Big Ten. Ohio State is very likely in the playoff, but if they somehow fall to #5 they will be in the Rose Bowl over us. 
  • Washington must beat Colorado. The funny thing about this is that it makes the point above less likely to happen, as the Huskies are going to be in the Top 4 if they win in Santa Clara this Friday night. However, Colorado has next to no chance of going to the playoff, and if they beat Washington they are guaranteed a spot in the Rose Bowl as the PAC 12 Champion. They will not play a rematch of a regular season game given they have other options for where to put Michigan. 
  • Therefore, Clemson likely needs to lose to Virginia Tech to eliminate the ACC from the playoff if the Wolverines are going to end up in Pasadena. 

We would play: 

  • USC is the only option here. If Washington wins, they're in the playoff and if Colorado is playing in the Rose Bowl, Michigan won't be. The Trojans are poised to be ranked right around #10 in the country, as they finish with a 9-3 record (with a road win over Washington); Southern California is on a 7 game winning streak. They were blown out by Alabama in the season opener in Dallas, lost on the final play of the game at Utah and were beaten by a sizable margin on the road against Stanford. 

 

Orange Bowl:

If any of the above scenarios above fail, we are very likely in the Orange Bowl. (Most scenarios have us here). However, what is interesting is who we could play because the ACC is an absolute mess with zero 10-2 teams and three 9-3 teams behind Clemson: 

  • Florida State finished 9-3 and is poised to be the highest ranked 9-3 ACC team. They are currently ranked #15 and just blew out the #12 team (Florida). They also have the largest fanbase (tickets and TV ratings) of the three possible teams and are local within the state. 
  • Louisville also finished 9-3 and absolutely destroyed the Seminoles; the problem is that they are on a 2 game losing streak, both to unranked opponents, one of which was at home. Also, the Cardinals have by far the smallest football fanbase of the three options. But they will cry outrage if FSU is slotted over them given they won by a score of 63-20. 
  • Virginia Tech also finished 9-3, won the ACC Coastal and will play Clemson in the ACC Championship game. The Hokies did not play either Louisville or Florida State. If they lose to Clemson this seems unlikely, but who really knows. If they beat Clemson, it's also hard to know. They would still likely be ranked below the Tigers and the Orange Bowl does NOT have conference champion guarantees like the Rose does. 
  • Clemson. If the Tigers lose to Virginia Tech they will be the highest ranked ACC team and Michigan vs. Clemson would be a "what could have been in the playoff" marketing draw. The winner of that game would finish at worst #5 in the nation (higher if a playoff team has an MSU-esque performance).  

 

Where would you prefer to play and against who? What do you think will happen with the mess that is the top of the ACC?

MGoBoard

DrMantisToboggan

November 27th, 2016 at 10:54 AM ^

I don't think it's responsible to say that our playoff chances are extremely miniscule, especially not before Tuesday's rankings. In reality, it took the #2 team 2 overtimes, 3 turnovers, questionable officiating, and a hurt QB to beat the #3 team, at home. There's a chance - if the committee's true goal is to get the best 4 teams in the playoffs - that Michigan doesn't even move this week, or only drops to 4. At that point we need either Clemson or Washington to lose. However, I have a hunch that the committee realizes that the best two teams in the Big Ten are not playing in the conference championship game. The same logic that keeps OSU above both PSU and Wiscy should keep us above them as well. We probably need Colorado or Clemson to lose (although if Washington wins close I can see the committee devaluing them based on their strength of schedule and saying 'let Michigan play Bama').

 

All that being said, I think I would prefer the Orange Bowl against Florida State. That is a trash stadium, but that would mean not having to play red-hot USC. FSU's defense is very questionable. I would trust our defense to limit Cook on the ground. Two straight years of convincing wins over big Florida schools is a recruiting win as well. 

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WorldwideTJRob

November 27th, 2016 at 11:05 AM ^

It's over, the refs took the CFP away from us. The committee won't take 2 teams from a conference who didn't win their division let alone a conference title. The only other alternative is taking 3 B1G teams, that will never happen either. Even if we are #3 or #4 in the polls Tuesday we will be passed in the following week by a few teams that win their conference championship games.



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SpikeFan2016

November 27th, 2016 at 11:04 AM ^

USC is 100% in the Rose Bowl with a Colorado loss next week. 

 

Both teams would have the same number of losses, USC beat Colorado head to head, is on a 7 game winning streak, has the best win of the two and has a much larger (and local) fanbase so would be better for tickets and ratings. 

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charblue.

November 27th, 2016 at 11:47 AM ^

playing Alabama? The outcome would be worse than Bama-MSU. Outside of Happy Valley and white out events, what has this team done to deserve a playoff berth? They were crushed by Michigan in a non-competitive way. That to me denies them from any consideration regardless of record. They lost a rivalry game on the road to Pittsburgh which could honestly claim that it has beaten two national playoff teams if the Nittany Lions are allowed in.

I have no interest in watching Penn State play Wisconsin. Michigan beat both. They are lesser teams than Michigan and Ohio State with freshman quarterbacks and a single running back. If either gets into the playoffs, they will be mauled at the hands of Alabama, and it would turn out to be one of the biggest duds in college matchup ever.

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KC Wolve

November 27th, 2016 at 11:29 AM ^

Don't really care. I've always thought bowls were stupid and while I normally watch and hope the team wins and the players enjoy the experience, in the end they don't mean shit. It is playoff or bust. An Orange/Rose Bowl trophy is meaningless.



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SalvatoreQuattro

November 27th, 2016 at 11:32 AM ^

I'll stridently disagree. Bowls mean something. It means a chance to finish a season with a win.

It means younger players have more practice time. But most especially it means seeing the winged helmets one more time before they go into hibernation until next September.

College football season is only four months. Enjoy every last moment.



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Hotel Putingrad

November 27th, 2016 at 11:44 AM ^

as for next weekend, I have a hunch Va Tech will beat Clemson, Washington will handle Colorado, PSU will hammer Wisconsin, and everyone here will throw up upon revelation of the final four.

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erald01

November 27th, 2016 at 11:59 AM ^

The thought of James Franklin winning the east and B1G trophy makes me fucking sick...James MF Franklyn who people wanted to be fired after starting 2-2. We are def fucking cursed no other words describes it (red sox like cursed, good teams that couldnt win the big one)



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SpikeFan2016

November 27th, 2016 at 12:34 PM ^

Not possible this year.

 

The Big 12 Champion, if left out of the playoff, is contractually sent to the Sugar Bowl to play an SEC team. 

So if Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, they will be in the Sugar Bowl. 

 

The rest of the New Year's Six this year is as follows: Rose Bowl would be against the PAC 12, Orange Bowl would be against the ACC and the Cotton Bowl would be against the highest ranked Group of 5 team. 

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smwilliams

November 27th, 2016 at 12:03 PM ^

We're probably going to the Orange Bowl to play FSU if form holds.

Alabama, Clemson, Washington, and Ohio St/B1G Champ in Playoff.

Rose will be Ohio State or B1G Champ (whoever doesn't make the playoff) vs. USC or Colorado

Sugar will be Oklahoma or Okie State vs Auburn I guess.

Cotton will be B1G Champ Loser vs WMU

Orange will be us vs Florida State



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SpikeFan2016

November 27th, 2016 at 12:43 PM ^

The Big Ten is not going to get 3 teams in the playoff. 

 

So, even if both of those upsets happen, it would come down to 10-2 Michigan vs. 11-2 Big Ten Champion that we beat. If it's Penn State, there's an outside chance, if it's Wisconsin I don't think so because our game against them was close enough (and on the road for them) that the conference championship and extra win should make up for it (they also lost to OSU in overtime, so that's a wash). 

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taistreetsmyhero

November 27th, 2016 at 12:45 PM ^

I hope we play wmu and beat them by 100. There's nothing to gain by playing any team. This season is over and there's nothing left to gain by beating anyone. We are one of the top 4 teams so outside of the cfp, nothing matters.



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HarbaughHarbaughBlue

November 27th, 2016 at 12:50 PM ^

make the playoffs... unlikely but possible so why the hell not dream. Colorado wins PAC 12 (we then have edge over wash and Colorado), Va Tech wins ACC (we then likely have edge over Clemson considering quality wins and who we lost to) and that would probably put 3 big ten teams in if the committee isn't scared of doing that. There is still hope to both win a natty and beat osu for the natty believe it or not. Our fate unfortunately lies on other teams hands.

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M-Dog

November 27th, 2016 at 4:56 PM ^

They are NOT putting in 3 Big Ten teams.  We would all scream bloody murder if they ever put in 3 SEC teams.

Don't forget, the whole CFP was started in the first place after 2 SEC teams met for the BCS title and the ratings tanked because of it.

We're out.  Should have beaten Iowa.  Better luck next year.

 

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Brodie

November 27th, 2016 at 1:05 PM ^

B1G champ will not make the playoff, so the Rose is out. The question is whether the Orange would take us over divsion champ PSU/Wisconsin. One of the downsides of the B1G is that every team outside of a select few (ahem, Rutgers, Maryland, Northwestern, Purdue, ahem) has a big fan/alumni base, so we can't really use that to force a better bowl to pick us. I think the Orange Bowl is our best bet, against Florida State or VT. I don't see a way for Clemson to end up there, either they win and make the CFP or they lose and wind up in the Cotton Bowl. 

This year sucks for At Large teams because the Fiesta and Peach are paired for the CFP. They really should have changed the alignment to prevent two of the three At Large NY6 bowls from being in the CFP in the same year. Now we're guaranteed to see a mediocre SEC team in the Sugar Bowl while one of us, PSU or Wisconsin is playing in Orlando. 

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