Michigan 20% to win CoFoPo per Fivethirtyeight
Per FiveThirtyEight Michigan has a 20% chance to win the title.
Here's the top ten:
Alabama: 31%
Michigan: 20%
Clemson: 16%
Washington: 8%
OSU: 7%
Louisville: 6%
Texas A&M: 3%
Auburn: 2%
LSU: 2%
Wisconsin: 1%
November 1st, 2016 at 7:57 PM ^
Did they talk to the committee re TAMU?
November 1st, 2016 at 8:02 PM ^
rankings so it seems they don't take TAMU too seriously. Seems that other teams would be predicted to pass them. Interestingly enough if you click the "OSU wins out" button they still give us a 24% chance to make the playoffs.
November 1st, 2016 at 9:33 PM ^
Interesting that Washington has a higher percentage of winning, yet was bumped by TAMU
November 1st, 2016 at 7:58 PM ^
I'm naming my first born son Jim Harbaugh if we win the CFP.
You think I'm joking but I'm not.
November 1st, 2016 at 8:01 PM ^
November 1st, 2016 at 8:02 PM ^
November 1st, 2016 at 9:13 PM ^
November 2nd, 2016 at 3:27 PM ^
I will not consider this season to be a success unless we beat Ohio State. To be totally honest, a national championship with a loss to OSU (which is a distinct possibility, if OSU loses to Nebraska this weekend) would be deeply unsatisfying. I would go far as to say that I prefer a win over OSU in Columbus and a loss in the CFP to a loss to OSU and two wins in the CFP.
November 1st, 2016 at 8:02 PM ^
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November 1st, 2016 at 8:42 PM ^
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November 1st, 2016 at 8:47 PM ^
Anyone that grew up in the 80's should know this.
November 1st, 2016 at 9:10 PM ^
...and YouTube has the trailer for "All The Right Moves" up for those that didn't see it.
November 2nd, 2016 at 7:53 AM ^
or was it the other way around? Who was right-Coach or Stef?
November 1st, 2016 at 10:02 PM ^
November 2nd, 2016 at 4:47 AM ^
are named Brian and Andrew. Its no coincidence that the UM quarterbacks at the time of their births were Brian Griese and Drew Henson.
My last lame is a single syllable so Drew would not work too well. I also didn't want to make it too obvious.
November 1st, 2016 at 8:05 PM ^
November 1st, 2016 at 8:11 PM ^
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November 1st, 2016 at 8:22 PM ^
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November 1st, 2016 at 8:23 PM ^
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November 2nd, 2016 at 5:41 PM ^
Well, they did notify UCF that they could have beaten Michigan and been ranked #1 if they had better players.
November 1st, 2016 at 8:19 PM ^
UCF - Ineligible for hitting too hard
November 1st, 2016 at 8:44 PM ^
So, MSU has same odds as last year.
November 1st, 2016 at 9:14 PM ^
November 1st, 2016 at 9:53 PM ^
a 0% chance with dignity.
November 1st, 2016 at 8:05 PM ^
November 1st, 2016 at 8:18 PM ^
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November 1st, 2016 at 8:28 PM ^
It's awful to say out loud, but I don't mind it in print.
November 1st, 2016 at 8:43 PM ^
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November 1st, 2016 at 8:45 PM ^
I'm cuckoo for CoFoPo.
November 1st, 2016 at 9:10 PM ^
November 1st, 2016 at 10:26 PM ^
November 1st, 2016 at 9:07 PM ^
I don't know why college football feels the need to constantly reinvent the wheel
November 2nd, 2016 at 3:30 PM ^
The CFP isn't run by the NCAA.
November 1st, 2016 at 9:54 PM ^
CFP works just fine, thanks.
November 2nd, 2016 at 9:23 AM ^
Whenever I read this acronym, this is the image that pops into my brain:
November 1st, 2016 at 8:12 PM ^
November 2nd, 2016 at 10:14 AM ^
Suppose enough buckeye fans bet on their team, could the state of Ohio as a whole become more poor?
Vice versa for UM?
Curious net cash flow of states due to sports performances.
November 1st, 2016 at 8:18 PM ^
I believe the website is FiThEt.
November 1st, 2016 at 8:21 PM ^
November 1st, 2016 at 9:41 PM ^
<0.00%.
November 1st, 2016 at 8:45 PM ^
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November 1st, 2016 at 8:49 PM ^
November 1st, 2016 at 9:20 PM ^
November 2nd, 2016 at 8:23 AM ^
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November 1st, 2016 at 10:22 PM ^
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November 2nd, 2016 at 8:27 AM ^
They use two different predictions: the "Polls-Only" model and the "Polls-Plus" model, which is adjusted based on a few factors-- one of which is opinion. Silver himself has said that the Poll-Only model nailed Trump's nomination. Basically, he messed with his own numbers and thats why he was wrong.
The big mistake is a curious one for a website that focuses on statistics. Unlike virtually every other forecast we publish at FiveThirtyEight — including the primary and caucus projections I just mentioned — our early estimates of Trump’s chances weren’t based on a statistical model. Instead, they were what we “subjective odds” — which is to say, educated guesses. In other words, we were basically acting like pundits, but attaching numbers to our estimates. And we succumbed to some of the same biases that pundits often suffer, such as not changing our minds quickly enough in the face of new evidence. Without a model as a fortification, we found ourselves rambling around the countryside like all the other pundit-barbarians, randomly setting fire to things.
I also think the polling community was taken in by the book The Party Decides and most of them assumed that the Republicans wanted nothing to do with Trump. This is why alot of them ignored their numbers and said "Trump has no shot."
November 1st, 2016 at 11:15 PM ^
November 2nd, 2016 at 10:04 AM ^
The University of Chicago. I'm pretty sure he could have gotten into Michigan. Or maybe he did get in and chose Chicago instead. Although that would make me question his judgment.