Putting Peppers' stats into perspective: a comparison with Tyrann Mathieu
People have posed the question of what exactly Peppers would have to do stats-wise to be seriously considered in the Heisman race. I figured I would put his numbers up against the Honey Badger, a player who was comparable in terms of versatility on the defensive side and dynamic returning abilities. Mathieu gained considerable Heisman hype after an incredible year for a true freshman, and followed it up with an even better sophomore season, earning 34 first place votes for Heisman en route to a 5th place finish in the race.
Mathieu season stats:
Defense- 59 solo tackles, 17 assisted, 7.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks, 9 PBU, 2 INT, 6 FF, 5 FR, 2 FR TD.
Offense- No rushes or receptions.
Punt returns- 27 returns for 421 yards (avg. 15.6) with 2 TD.
Kick off returns- None.
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Peppers season stats through 3 games:
Defense- 20 solo tackles, 8 assisted, 9.5 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 0 PBU, 0 INT, 1 FF, 0 FR, 0 DEF TD.
Offense- 2 rushes for 24 yards. 0 receptions.
Punt returns- 8 returns for 173 yards (avg. 21.6) with 1 TD.
Kick off returns- 2 returns for 81 yards (avg. 40.5) with 0 TD.
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Some things that stands out is that Peppers is living in the backfield in his role as a hybrid LB, and he could finish with an ungodly amount of TFLs and sacks. But, in order to get into the Heisman race, he will need to make some special plays. The Honey Badger made his fame punching the ball out and getting in position to make big plays on defense. Peppers will need to get 1-2 defensive touchdowns in order to be considered. The lack of any INT is still a glaring hole in his collegiate resume, especially given that he dropped a sure pick 6 last year.
Where Peppers can make his move is on offense. He was deployed for the first time yesterday, and picked up yards with ease. If he gets 200 rushing yards and 100 receiving yards with 3 TD-- a slight improvement from last year--that would be a big boost to his resume. For comparison, Woodson had 231 receiving yards and 2 TD to go with 15 rushing yards and 1 TD.
Finally, on the kicking game, Peppers is off to an otherworldly start. If he can finish the year with Mathieu's avg return numbers, he will likely have popped off another punt return TD and be a freak of nature. If he can take a kick off return to the house, well then, we might have a real race on our hands.
Overall, this is just for fun and I'm going to enjoy watching Peppers regardless of how it all plays out, but I figured I'd add some perspective to give people a sense of what he needs to do to get into the discussion.
September 20th, 2016 at 12:35 AM ^
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September 20th, 2016 at 12:42 AM ^
then we have no business losing.
September 20th, 2016 at 2:39 AM ^
The punt returns and forced fumbles in that video are awesome. Everything else... meh. I think Peppers is better. Of course, they dont even play the same position most of the time.
But that punt return... holy shit, that was something else.
September 20th, 2016 at 4:50 AM ^
Agreed. Jabrill's style of play is so violent compared to Mathieu.
September 20th, 2016 at 1:46 AM ^
September 20th, 2016 at 9:41 AM ^
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September 20th, 2016 at 9:53 AM ^
with average coverage skills.
Note how he makes quite a few weak tackles because he is so focus on stripping the ball out instead.
September 20th, 2016 at 12:44 AM ^
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September 20th, 2016 at 12:47 AM ^
got my stats from sports-reference. But yeah cfbstats.com is showing 9.5 TFL and 1 FF (that rocket launch against the UCF qb I'm assuming).
September 20th, 2016 at 12:46 AM ^
September 20th, 2016 at 1:39 AM ^
The team probably needs to be in the playoff as well. Your teams success is typically at least equally important as individual stats when racing for the Heisman.
But you're right, Heisman winners typically have big game moments late in the season that pulls momentum in their favor.
September 20th, 2016 at 7:21 AM ^
Especially if we're both still ranked in the top 4. That's going to be The Game of the year (and not just to us), so Peppers needs to go full Woodson against OSU. Take one back, maybe an Int, and score at least one additional touchdown.
September 20th, 2016 at 7:42 AM ^
September 20th, 2016 at 11:00 AM ^
ESPN "experts" voted him 6th in their conversation, ahead of Deshaun Watson and Nick Chubb. A lot of season left.
September 20th, 2016 at 2:16 AM ^
Just saying, not the greatest comparison since Pep has a lot more chances at TFLs that Mathieu did.
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September 20th, 2016 at 7:32 AM ^
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September 20th, 2016 at 8:24 AM ^
September 20th, 2016 at 9:19 AM ^
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September 20th, 2016 at 3:13 AM ^
Lamar Jackson of Louisville is in the right place at the right time an putting up video game numbers against elite teams. In any other year, Jabrill would have a great chance at the Heisman. But Jackson has a name (Action Jackson) made for Heisman Hype and he is putting up the right numbers.
Jabrill deseves better, but if Jackson stays healthy, he is a shoo-in.
September 20th, 2016 at 5:16 AM ^
This isn't the first time a QB started off with such a hot start in September. In recent years (i.e. post-Denard era), other QBs put up huge numbers and didn't even end up at the Heisman Ceremony.
It's not necessarily how you start but how you finish. If Lousiville loses at Clemson and/or Houston, then Jackson may be relegated to a finalist. I say may because Baylor went 9-3 in the 2011 regular season (with consecutive 27+ point blowout losses at Texas A&M and at Oklahoma State) but RG3 still won the Heisman over Andrew Luck because Griffin put up huge numbers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Baylor_Bears_football_team
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/robert-griffin-iii-1.html
September 20th, 2016 at 7:13 AM ^
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September 20th, 2016 at 8:16 AM ^
September 20th, 2016 at 8:35 AM ^
Just think back on the hype that Denard received for his non-conference performances. He was unable to sustain that level of success for an entire season (mostly because he was forced to do it himself).
September 20th, 2016 at 12:48 PM ^
Denard, and most other September-Heisman people's numbers weren't as mindblowing as Jackson's so far and weren't against as good of opposition.
and 2, they weren't on potentially great teams like Louisville is now. Unlike Denard, Jackson has a ton of talent around him
September 20th, 2016 at 2:23 PM ^
While they weren't against as good of opposition (although ND is never a gimme), I submit that Denard's numbers WERE pretty mindblowing.
September 20th, 2016 at 5:50 AM ^
September 20th, 2016 at 6:44 AM ^
until he beats MSU and OSU. Personally.
Maybe an exaggeration. But having huge moments to pull us out of the fire in those games or really seal the deal simply has to happen.
September 20th, 2016 at 5:29 PM ^
As funny as that meme has been, I think that's actually true. If Michigan goes 10-2 with losses to MSU and OSU, it won't matter how dominant he was. Michigan needs to go at least 11-1, and he needs to have a big game and a big play in the OSU game.
But I think he may need to pick off a few passes. TFL and sacks are nice, but those don't move the needle like a pick 6.
September 20th, 2016 at 7:19 PM ^
September 20th, 2016 at 6:53 AM ^
Jabrill will have to score double digit TDs to be considered, but it probably won't matter since Jackson will win it.
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September 20th, 2016 at 7:11 AM ^
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September 20th, 2016 at 7:39 AM ^
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September 20th, 2016 at 7:48 AM ^
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September 20th, 2016 at 7:19 AM ^
September 20th, 2016 at 7:39 AM ^
September 20th, 2016 at 7:52 AM ^
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September 20th, 2016 at 8:17 AM ^
I wonder how good he'd be at linebacker if he played that position his whole college career, because he wasn't really a game changing safety and his trajectory at linebacker after three games makes me glad he only has 10 left.
September 20th, 2016 at 8:20 AM ^
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September 20th, 2016 at 8:29 AM ^
Peppers is a great player but his inability to cover consistently USA glaring weakness in his game.
I just don't see the Heisman as a real scenario.
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September 20th, 2016 at 12:09 PM ^
if you want him to cover the entire country, that's a difficult bar to reach.
September 20th, 2016 at 8:18 AM ^
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September 20th, 2016 at 9:30 AM ^
Man, If you don't think Ryan Shazier is a freak athlete, then I don't know what to tell you. That's hilarious. On a team with Antonio Brown and Darius Heyward Bey, Shazier is the fastest Pittsburgh Steeler, right now.
And I also said "the best defensive comparasion is Shazier" because OP compared Peppers defensively to Honey Badger, which isn't particularly close. Honey Badger covered people downfield, and forced turnovers/interceptions and was a ball hawk. HB forced 15 turnovers in two years in the secondary. That's not Peppers.
On the other hand, Shazier was a tackling machine who was always in the backfield but rarely covered anyone downfield and didn't force interceptions. In 30 games as a starter, Shazier had 45 tfls and 15 sacks. That's certainly what Peppers would/could have done with 30 starts at LB.
September 20th, 2016 at 11:12 AM ^
Yes, Shazier may be a better comparison...as a defensive player specifically. But Peppers really started out at nickel; the weird part is that he's a good fit at LB, not PR. And we're not talking about positional comparisons anyway. We're talking about his chances at winning the Heisman, and which players he resembles had the best shot recently.
Mildly delusional? Probably. He has to surpass the already sky high expectations placed on him to have any shot.
September 20th, 2016 at 8:09 AM ^
Peppers is in NYC this December, with a great chance to win it. You can already feel the excitement building, especially now that he's getting snaps on O.
September 20th, 2016 at 9:05 AM ^
The Heisman is biased a bit towards offensive players as they're the ones with the ball in their hands at all times, but all the same, Peppers will need several interceptions, some offensive playmaking, and a few more TD punt returns to even get in the conversation of getting to NY.
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September 20th, 2016 at 8:40 AM ^
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September 20th, 2016 at 11:48 AM ^
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September 20th, 2016 at 8:53 AM ^
September 20th, 2016 at 9:33 AM ^