Michigan Monday Article at the Ozone (OSU fan website)
As many of you know, the Ozone, an OSU fan website, has an article every Monday during the season about Michigan. This is one of those "know your enemy" things. I hadn't been over to their site since December, but wandered over this morning. Lo and behold, they have a long article on Michigan.
LINK: Slow Down with the Michigan Hype
Being that content is sparse right now, I went ahead and linked to the article. Tony Gerdeman opines that while Michigan has improved, they aren't in the National Title discussion . . . just yet. Here is the key premise why:
Can they run the ball and can they stop the run against a skilled team that loves to run the ball?
On the offensive side of the ball, Gerdeman says this:
A year ago Michigan averaged over 5 yards per carry in a game against a P5 opponent just once – 5.04 yards against Indiana, who allowed 5.23 yards per carry to everyone else last season. They averaged 4.89 yards per carry against Florida. Over a season that would’ve ranked 33rd in the nation a year ago. It’s fine, but not, ‘Hey, wow, look at this!’ The offensive line is better and 5-star running back Kareem Walker will help, but can they take that 4.2 yards per carry average from last year and add at least another yard to it? Of the last eight national champions, five of them averaged over 5.5 yards per carry.
On the defensive side, the article points out:
The Wolverines finished No. 16 in the nation in run defense last year, allowing just 122.23 yards rushing per game. Against teams ranked in the top 30 in rushing, however, they allowed 338 yards per game on the ground. Sure, that was just two opponents – Indiana and Ohio State, but they also happened to be the two teams on Michigan’s schedule that could actually run the ball.
Lastly, he really wonders about the back 7 defensively, outside of Peppers and Lewis. And boils our season down to the 3 tough away games: MSU, Iowa, and OSU.
My speculation has centered on the QB. But reading this, I have to admit, it raises questions for me. First, how will the OL and RB corps do in improving the running game? Can Drevno bring Michigan to the level Stanford was at on the ground, or are we still another year or two off? Second, how will the LB group and the secondary outside of Lewis perform? I'm very confident in the DL. Less so for anyone else not named Peppers or Lewis.
Anyway, it is something else to read for those of you who are bored and looking for more on Michigan football. Oh, and I apologize for putting up two threads in a row on the board.
Is there something going on with the socks? Tell me more.
My focus is on OSU. Until we start beating them, and competing with them, we won't be back. We could run the table this year until OSU, and it wouldn't matter if they killed us again. To be the best, you have to beat the best. Honestly, I would truly accept a couple losses this year . . . provided that we beat both MSU and OSU. That is my focus.
not the team's necessarily, which, is to win every game.
But back when losing was acceptable --NEVER- this wasn't an issue, it was just understood. Actually, I think that still is true; it's just knowing now as Gerdeman finally admits, this isn't about if the gap is closing but when. Personally, I think he underestimates Michigan's deffensive talent level and its potential coordination this year and how that will alter its look and effect. The offense will feed off that and take off on its own but the gap between September and late November, always means the game is THE GAME, regardless of what you write in May.
Honestly, I would truly accept a couple losses this year . . . provided that we beat both MSU and OSU. That is my focus.Agreed with the caveat that we come away winning the Big Ten East and play in Indianapolis in December. To come out and beat our two biggest rivals on the road and still not play for the conference championship would ring a little hollow for me. ...so maybe just accept a single loss that is not OSU or MSU...let's go with that.
You're right. MGoBlog is posting GIF competitions. I guess Michigan fans are obsessed with GIFs because one website is posting about them!
Seriously, though...it's kind of silly to try to poke fun at OSU because they're obsessed with us.
To each their own, I suppose.
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Can't
take
the
irony
Man, it's something. Leading for the two 5 stars out of Texas now too. Their class will be in the discussion for greatest ever. I'm extremely optimistic about Michigan's future but OSU is going nowhere. Unless Urban unexpectedly leaves it's possible we're the second best team in the conference and the nation for many years to come.
OSU is indeed really out of this world with recruiting. They are in that territory where they can slow play 4 star guys, because they're waiting on 5 stars. I am really hoping that DPJ goes blue. It is important to start winning some head to head battles for 5 star recruits, ESPECIALLY in the state of Michigan. McCaffrey, and Peters, with the tutelage of Harbaugh, might make a difference with some of the top ranked receivers out there. We also are going head to head for Tufele, a 4 star monster DT out of Utah, the 4th ranked guy in the country.Malone-Hatcher and Kelly-Powell are two more guys they have offered (from in-state) who have a strong chance to go blue.
Conversely, it is going to be hard to pull Riep out of Ohio. We might get Dotson, because they might not seriously pursue a TE since the class is small, and Hudson, because Toledo is closer to Ann Arbor. But we will have to bloody their face in Ohio again with recruiting.
whatever they are. Big Ten Championship Game, playoff, beat the rivals. If momentum is lost we're not catching up with them from a jimmy and joes perspective. Harbaugh is the absolute best at coaching up players. But, Urban Meyer is no slouch. Michigan and OSU could be hitting their 100 year peaks at the same time. Which will ultimately diminish how great each of them could have been. I just hope it's the champions of the west that rise above the rest.
You cannot forget that they got a head start on Michigan with these kids and that Harbaugh is still playing from behind in just his second full recruiting cycle. If Michigan wins 12 or more next year, our class will look similar.
Yes, Alabama likes to run the ball. What a complete joke.
The Alabama comparison is interesting to me, actually.
Obviously we're not Alabama, talent-wise. But Alabama and Michigan share a few things in common that help explain why Alabama can be successful despite averaging less than the "magic" 5.5 YPC.
First, both are mostly pro-style offenses. We don't have the kind of running offense that depends on getting athletes into space, like Ohio State or Auburn. This means that, especially against inferior opponents, a "dominant" running game looks like a consistent series of 5-6 yard gains rather than breaking off 30-50 yard gains. Back when we had RichRod, Denard would average 10-20 yards per carry when we played teams like Bowling Green, because they couldn't keep up with his athleticism. But when we played championship-level defenses, they were able to match up with Denard athletically and shut him down. An Alabama-style or Harbaugh-style offense isn't going to put up 10-20 ypc against bad teams, so the season average is deflated, but it maintains more of its effectiveness against good teams.
Second, both are constructed as defense-first teams that are happy to blast predictably into the line if they're salting away a lead. In the UNLV game this year, after we went up 21-0 in the second quarter, we only had one drive over the remainder of the game in which Rudock attempted more than two passes. UNLV may be a terrible team, but even they can limit iso runs if they happen over and over. The fact that we're not running up huge numbers against teams like that doesn't mean anything as far as how dangerous our running game can be when we need it to be.
Don't get me wrong, our running game last year wasn't good. But at the same time, I don't think we need to start running up huge YPC numbers to have a shot at a championship.
1. Can we run? -- DUNNO
Nobody knows. We have solid RBs but the OL was one of the worst run-blocking units in the country last year and the passing game wasn't good enough (till the end of the year) to open the field up.
The most under-discussed issue in recent M-football is the fact that the blocking scheme changed entirely. While defense had a lot of continuity the OL had a massive transition in scheme. Being in year 2 should help enough to expect improvement, despite losing Glasgow.
2. Can we stop elite run units? -- YES
Michigan lost 4 starting caliber DLmen to injury by Indiana/OSU (Mone, Ojemudia, Glasgow, and Godin). Tough to stop the run when that happens. Michigan is unlikely to face that kind of attrition again and returns a loaded veteran talented large DL (Wormley, Glasgow, Charlton, Hurst, Godin, Gary).
The only concern here is WDE and the ability to stop spread teams that can exploit weaknesses. Time to figure that out.
3. Is the back 7 exploitable? -- NO
Michigan probably has the best secondary it's had since 1997...and maybe ever. Keep in mind that a starting DB on a top 15 D in Stanford couldn't get snaps last year and all but one guy are back.
Yes, the ILBs might be exploitable, but Gedeon's earned snaps since he was a freshman due in large part to being a better athlete than the guys ahead of him. Whatever issues may exist at LB should be covered up by a secondary that is going to be able to handle a lot of 1-on-1 matchups and bring playmakers like Thomas and HIll in to support.
4. Is the road schedule an issue? -- YES
The schedule does not lay out very favorably even though it looks easy in aggregate. The first half appears to be a cakewalk without any tough road tests. The last part of the year is all on the road. Michigan will be light on adversity and experience heading into some tough games in late October and November.
It's completely fair to boil the season down to Iowa, MSU, and Ohio State.
MSU lost a fuckton of talent and I think we beat them badly in EL, the way we used to almost every year. Like a "please, not in the face!" type of score.
Iowa rarely has two good years in a row. This game only concerns me if it snows, because weather like that fucks up your whole game plan.
OSU I'd obviously rather have at home. That is a damn hostile environment to play in and they'll be looking for blood as per usual. But, we used to beat them down there all the time and if we're truly going to be elite again, that has to start happening on a regular basis again.
Just that it'd be nice if one of those games was earlier in the year.
To go undefeated Michigan would need to win 4 games in 6 weeks away from Michigan before going to a bowl. That's a tough task, especially when the lead-up to @MSU is 6 home games and one not-very-scary roadtrip to NJ.
This would be a far better year to kick the season off @Utah, for preparation's sake.
Hopefully by the time November rolls around the QB will have settled into the system and be solid. Early in the year I'm expecting some hiccups from the QB play.
Is playing Indiana the week before OSU. We barely escaped that game and it provided a blueprint for OSU.
Hopefully, I don't think Indiana's offense will be on the same level as it has been the past few years. They lose a lot.
We are in the unfortunate position of having an easy schedule (in terms of SOS) on paper but a tough schedule (situationally) to run through undefeated.
That could make a 1-loss Michigan team get passed over for a BCS spot. [Getting way ahead of myself, I know, but Michigan can't afford any slipups this year.]
MSU is going to have to fall off a cliff and implode on itself for us to go into East Lansing and beat them in a "please, not in the face!" type of way. Even OSU hasn't been able to do that in the last few years since Meyer showed up.
Did they lose a lot of talent? Definitely. Is next year a bit of a rebuilding year for them? Probably. Could be an 8-4 type of year for them just based on what they lost to graduation/NFL. I would not peg MSU as a playoff contender next Fall. But they will always get up and have their 'A' game when they play us.
That game is going to be an absolute war, whether MSU is 7-0 or 0-7 at the time. I don't know what kind of pep talk Dantonio gives to his players, but whatever he does, it works.
Dantonio preps for Michigan like Bo prepped for OSU -- every day of the year.
That and the chip on his shoulder works for Sparty.
Staee better be ready. They got lucky last year. The only point they led all game was when the clock showed 00:00.
I think saying that the OL was one of the worse run blocking team in the country is some serious a bit of a hyperbole. We were ok at it and the advanced stats seem to agree with that. Obviously ok isn't good enough but going from ok to really good is much more managable than terrrible to really good.
If there is a better stat of run-blocking (as opposed to overall run game), I not aware of it.
Our overall rushing game was not totally ineffective, but a lot of that has to do with clever use of fullbacks, WR reverses, and Deveon Smith breaking a bunch of tackles.
Sure, but there were also a lot of missed holes as well. I don't think that backs were a plus more most of the year (and to be fair to Deveon he apparently had turf toe for a lot of the year). As far a Op rate that is really low but I think adj line yards is about 55 which is a right in the middle and that feels right.
I'd argue there are always missed holes, but more importantly - you're less likely to miss holes if you're getting consistent blocking. I think Deveon and the other backs the last few years have just been trying to survive. Opp Rate would support that assertion (though it actually improved significantly in 2014 before collapsing back in 2015.)
Adj Line Yards includes RB performance. This being OK tells me that, counter to the conventional narrative, our backs may be above average and keeping the OL from looking horrid.
assessment to the questions raised by the article?
Yes.
Thanks for the input.
He notes that 5 of the last 8 champions averaged over 5.5yds a carry. Oh my God the odds of winning the title are impossible if we don't get to 5.5yds a carry. We will never get there......oh wait who cares. What a horrible statistical argument. Arbitrary time period that is exactly 1 data point from 50/50. Nice work.
The rush defense point is slightly better but I got 2 words for his run defense worries....Mone and Glasgow. Good Luck if that's your strategy. This defense is going to shit on teams like a toilet.
That Michigan running attack against Florida in the bowl game was nothing that I had seen from the team the entire year. Remember that Florida was a top ten defensive team too! Even if our yards per carry wasn't elite...adjusted for the defense we were up against it was excellent. We return most of that offensive line.
We got out schemed for sure against Ohio State because Durkin was too busy thinking about his Maryland head coaching responsibilities and stayed with what had worked against most other teams. Don Brown is not going to let that happen again.
Linebacker is a definite weakness that we have shored up a bit by adding Peppers there. Still, worry about injuries.
Our secondary is all back and should be elite. Almost everyone from the defensive line is back and should be elite...even before you add in the number one recruit in the nation Rashan Gary.
Almost our entire offense is back except quarterback but I fully trust in Harbaugh there who refilled the bare cupboard so we would have a capable starter back there. The quarterback will have a lot of veteran talent to help him get acclimated and a manageable early schedule.
No one can replace as much talent as Ohio State needs to replace and be as good. Something like 16 out of 24 starters?? Still dangerous of course but if you were going to pick a year to beat them in Columbus this is the one.
Michigan State lost a lot from both its offensive and defensive line, their star quarterback, and star wide receiver....and we had them beaten last year despite refs seemingly having it out for us and save for one bad play at the end.
I'm very much looking forward to this season.
I'm very much looking forward to the season. My problem, to be honest, is that I have had expectations raised and dashed for about 10 years now. That's an oversimplification. But I've been burned seeing Michigan start fast out of the gate, then bog down and self-destruct once the schedule gets tough.
Harbaugh does make a huge difference. And the position coaches are crackerjack. (Gerdeman actually notes that Harbaugh and Brown are better than anyone in the country in getting the most out of the players they have). But I'm still very much in a "show me" position with the OL and the RB. Yeah, I want to believe. But I also want to see what they can do against a really stout run defense.
I also am pretty confident in the DL and in the secondary. But I wonder about the LB crew, especially if there should be a couple significant injuries.
We'll find out soon enough. Should be a very exciting season.
Given that Glasgow was stellar and Cole is new at center, one has to assume that it will take time to get the whole OL unit to the level they were at by the end of last year. And, whereas beating up on cupcake OOC teams at home gives our reconfigured OL a chance to gel, the question is how it performs when the B1G schedule starts against Penn State (9/24) and Wisconsin (10/1).
I know redshirting blue chips like Bredeson and Onwenu is always desired, but if either of those guys beat out the starters in practice I hope they get a fair chance to see the field, given that Harbaugh says the best players play on his team. As a fan, that's what I hope to see on the field: our best. If we have to burn a redshirt to give us a better team on the field this year, don't forget that Harbaugh has already established a recruiting pipeline that will bring excellent big-uglies going forward.
I'm not going to worry about the running game anymore than I'll worry about the QB because Harbaugh. His identity is effectively rushing the ball down your throat, whether you like it, or not. He creates offenses that simply run over people like he creates QB's that become very, very good players. I am not worried about this one bit.
I am worried about the LB's coming through if the DL or DB's can't help immediately. They will make some mistakes simply out of lack of experience. Okay, big deal. That only becomes a problem if its repeated. I don't think any defensive coaches working for Harbaugh would let problems repeat themselves.
The OL needs to continue taking sizable steps, and I believe it will based on coaching. Again, Harbaugh! And show me one single OL that Drevno failed to improve...
The early season schedule will allow plenty of time for the LB's and OL to gain experience and confidence. Same with the new QB and the RB's behind Smith. But those three road games will be tough regardless...
They hype seems about right to me in the fact that we should be a playoff contender and the favorites to win the conference. Its easy to look at the problems this team may have (new QB, potentially shaking linebacker play, ok but not elite oline) and be sketical. However, we have to compare ourselves to the field and that looks really good. Ohio State lost many of its talent of last years team. Could/should they reload? Of course, but its not a gurrentee. Michigan State lost a very good QB and lots off its Oline and that secondary has major strides to make. Iowa, well Iowa is Iowa. If the hype is anything other than a playoff spot is disappointing, than sure, its too much. If they hype is favorite in the big ten and should contend for a playoff spot than I think it is on point.
FWIW I've always found the Michigan Monday column to be a pretty balanced look at Michigan and a great outsider perspective. I also think in most areas he's right although I don't know if I would have chosen to present the arguments in the same way.
Michigan being able to run the ball depends a great deal on an O-line that hasn't quite yet proven it and is replacing its Center with a guy who has never played the position before.
Being able to stop the run depends on Linebackers getting to the right spot in such a way to inflict pain, can the linebackers do that? I don't know, but they haven't proven it in a game yet.
The thing with the secondary is a bit of concern trolling, but if I squint I can maybe see the argument even if I think it's horseshit.
Michigan has some questions to answer for sure and Gerdeman is right to point them out, but every contender has questions to answer and the better question is if some optimism is warranted based on the combination of playing and coaching talent, in this case I think it is.
I was going to post a reply that would have been way to similar to yours...so I will just piggy back on it a bit.
Very rarely does a COLLEGE team come into a season with fewer Q marks than Michigan does this year...OSU last year and a few Alabama juggernaughts of the past come to mind.
This year, the QB situation guides everything, good to very good QB play could very well lead Michigan to the B1G Championship game and a playoff berth. Average to poor play and you are looking at 2-3 losses at Sparty, Iowa, or OSU.
I actually like Michigan Monday on that site by and large...glad OP posted it.
This particular Michigan Monday is pretty worthless. I'm torn with Magnus' take down on GIF madness but at least the GIF tourney is Michigan centered. The OP link is pretty much saying what CFB is all about without saying much about Michigan.
If end of season Rudock had shown up at Utah we would be a bigger fish.
I would add the loss of Pipkins as important - I don't think that was mentioned above.
Football is marginal. There is little to go on pre season. Little doesn't make this link worthy - but it's football. That is something. Back to the GIFs and GoTs.
All legitimate questions, but I'm hoping the game against Florida is a good sign of things to come. That was the first game in a long time where I saw Michigan come out and not just play well, but DOMINATE a good opponent from start to finish in all phases of the game. Sure, UF's offense has been pretty meh, but their defense was supposed to be elite, and we shredded it like it was some JV bush league.
The running game and line play will be a question coming into the year, but returning 4 of 5 linemen and the core of your running game, which all looked dominant against Florida, is a good sign. In my opinion, the season comes down to two areas:
QB play. Easily the biggest unknown. Whether Speight or O'Korn can pick up where Rudock left off is the difference between a 10-11 win regular season, and an 8-9 win one. We will need to have damn good QB play to get out of EL, Iowa City and Columbus with wins. Which brings me to point # 2:
How does Michigan handle its three biggest games of the year? All on the road, in hostile environments, with potentially a ton on the line? This is where we'll find out what this team is truly made of. Michigan lately has not been able to close the deal in big, statement kind of games (see: MSU and OSU).
LB play is a concern, but with bringing Peppers into the fold, and the new talent coming into the position, I'm surprisingly not as concerned about it.
Can we run the ball? It's year 2 of the Harbaughfense so we should have much greater success as guys KNOW what they are supposed to do as opposed to GUESSING which is what happens when you install a new offense.
Then you have the OL being at peak physical maturity with a workhorse RB fully healthy and stronger than last year and I think we add 1 yd to our average easily.
was down Mone, Glasgow, and Ojemudia against Indiana and Ohio State, which made it that much more difficult for an unathletic Desmond Morgan in the middle and a less than athletic Joe Bolden. Gideon returns but has to improve. Bush in the middle could be an improvement over Morgan, and as for the other outside we will have to see who steps in and if they can step up. if we can stay healthy on the defensive line, which is deeper this year, I don't see how we can't improve on the Run.