More Hoops Info TweetStorm
Tony Paul of the Detroit News (@TonyPaul1984) tweeted the following (at work, can't embed tweets, sorry for the formatting):
UM coach John Beilein says there is a possibility for more player(s) transferring out. Should know within next two weeks.
Beilein says he's OK losing an assistant to a head coaching job. Speculation about Bacari Alexander to Detroit
UMCJB says it was Ricky Doyle's decision to transfer "but we were very transparent with him." Crowded frontcourt
UMCJB says he doesn't mind the national heat over his stance on Big Ten transfers. "I'll take the bullets".
UMCJB says the team is open to Spike Albrecht returning. Notes team wants defense, and he can defend.
I'll update the OP if more comes
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This will be interesting.
It's that last tweet that I'm most interested in. Yes to both Albrecht returning and having more defense. I'm glad Beilein is thinking about both.
I'm glad he is thinking about both, but I didn't think Spike would be the answer to the issues on defense.
He can't admit to not being able to coach defense or recruit better players.
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The bar is low for defending on this team.
But he's a solid off-ball defender. He understands passing lanes and help defense, which unfortunately, is more than can be said with some of the rest of the team. He did average nearly a steal a game his JR year. Not great, but not terrible either.
1 steal per game would have put him tied for 2nd on the team this year with Caris. Walton was at 1.8. Irvin was third at 0.8. We don't rebound, we don't block shots, we don't get steals. What do we do on defense, besides avoid fouls?
I'd imagine Wilson and Chatman would be the other two considering transfers. If they leave we are incredibly thin all over the court next year and no backup 4s which will destroy Irvin. Great.
How could this team be any worse than than last years squad? I think we actually out performed ourselves. We made it to tourny and had a great shot of making it to sweet 16. Im just lost on comment of " scary how bad this team could potnetially be" when we have the same exact team. I think we will be better than last years squad, but not where I want to be.
Funny that this got unanimously upvoted. What is the floor for next season? Considering they aren't losing a single player who made any significant contribution for the last 20 games, it should be no worse than this year, and probably better with development of Wagner and a dynamic talent in X hopping on board.
are one more transfer from me officially declaring #chaos and really starting to question what the hell Beilein is doing. I have not left the JB bandwagon once but what in the actual hell is going on here. Dawk, Doyle, and another transfer? Spike returning for defensive prowess? "Take the bullets" for the in-conference transfer restrictions? Actually, no, you didn't at all. You kind of ducked and ran for cover after one Mike and Mike segment. Ugh.
series of answers highlighted above in that presser does not give you pause I don't know what to tell you. Like I said, Beilein fan here. But yeesh.
This series of answers doesn't seem too alarming to me.
1. Possibly more transfers. Not ideal, but as long as they aren't ugly transfers (or guys we really don't want to lose), this doesn't seem bad for the program.
2. Okay losing assistants to head coaching jobs (e.g., Bacari). That's a totally reasonable stance, and I'd like to see fresh blood on the coaching staff anyway.
3. It was Doyle's decision to transfer but Michigan was honest about playing time. That all seems good.
4. Beilein doesn't mind being questioned on his intra-conference transfers stance. I disagree with his stance but whatever.
5. Team is open to Spike returning and wants defense. Spike won't solve the defensive problems (except maybe as a shot-blocking center), but it's good to hear they'd bring him back and that they're thinking about defense.
What's worrying you in there?
The same thought occurred to me.
You need help.
Not sure how the only two potential backup 4's on the roster and the guy with the highest physcical upside on the team (wilson) is deadweight that you can just drop after 2 years. If you are going to build your program on player development rather than elite recruiting then you need the players to stick around and be developed. Having a bunch of players that need development and are freshman isn't a recipe for success and we are another transfer from having developmental freshman as the primary backups at the 3,4, and 5 spot.
Chatman and Wilson have not transfered so I do not think that was the "dead wieght" he was referring to. Also, in the actual interview these tweets are referencing, he actually says that he doesn't think there will be anymore attrition but he doesn't know for sure just yet.
The problem with that analogy is that pretty much any "dead weight" Harbaugh is getting rid of is Hoke's dead weight; with Beilein it's a little different, since these were all his guys to begin with...
Losing three scholarship players to transfer means we lose 23% of our scholarship players.
Lose one more and we are out 30% of scholarship players.
Harbaugh did not get rid of that percentage of scholarship players.
I know we had to make some room, but we are looking at potentially having only 11 scholarship players next year if one more guy transfers.
as Wilson already sat out a year and Chatman is young for his class. I also think Wilson has more upside, though he still really raw.
I'd be really surprised if he transferred. Michigan needs him, pretty badly.
Wilson is the one who, if the staff is being 'transparent", doesn't have much of a role. Wagner and Donnal are ahead and Teske and Davis are coming in.
The oft-discussed move of Wilson to the 4 seems so far off as to be viewed as unrealistic. Wilson's athletic for a 5, but at 4 he'd be a liability on both ends. [There are a few teams where the matchup at 4 makes sense defensively, but Wilson's not going to make them pay on the other end the way Novak, Irvin, and Robinson have made teams pay.]
Dawkins transfer does offer a glimmer of hope for Wilson at the 4 but again - Beilein's never done that. Smotrycz is the only 4 that is a real 4 that Beilein has played, and even he was used at the 5, arguably more effectively. And then he transferred.
Right after the season ended I put together a list of guys based on the likelihood I thought they would transfer (haters, please note: not guys I *wanted* to transfer, just the likelihood of each player leaving; personally I wish everyone who chooses Michigan could stay at Michigan, but it just doesn't work out that way).
Anyway, I had Doyle as most likely to transfer, since he was gonna be buried on the depth chart and hadn't redshirted yet. I had Dawkins as the next most likely, given his Dad's situation and given that Robinson had passed him and the staff was clearly trying to give Kam a chance to pass him as well.
There's no way, barring actual #chaos, in my opinion, that Walton, Irvin, Robinson, or Donnal transfer. Walton and Irvin are locks for playing time and (probably) captaincy. Robinson has already transferred and redshirted, and he's in line for plenty of playing time. Donnal is one year away from getting a degree and has already redshirted. He's probably in line for at least a prominent backup role, and I don't see a guy leaving Michigan one year away from a degree unless the situation is a lot worse than prominent backup. It's far more likely Donnal leaves after next year than now. If Donnal graduates early (don't know his status on that front obviously), then all bets are off there, since he'd have a degree and wouldn't have to sit out.
MAAR and Wagner are also unlikely to transfer, but more likely than the preceding four. Both still have redshirt years available (though MAAR is old for his class), and neither is super close to a degree, but both are also in line for a ton of playing time, probably starting roles. Hard to see them walking away from that.
So I think the next two guys most at risk of transferring are Chatman and Wilson. I think Wilson is slightly likelier than Chatman to transfer. He just hasn't developed and the coaches are clearly reticent to put him on the floor. He doesn't play with authority around the rim, he isn't a great shooter, and he looks lost on defense.
On the other hand, Kam started to get more and more playing time as the year went on, and has been showing improvement, even though it's slow. For example, even though the sample is very small, he made 7 of 14 threes in Big Ten play. I think he's in line for a good chunk of playing time next year, if he keeps improving at even a moderate pace. Indeed, even late this year I wanted to see what a lineup of Walton, MAAR, Irvin, Chatman, Donnal/Wagner could do. I think that would have been our best defensive lineup by a mile.
Again, let me reiterate that I don't really want to see anyone transfer. I love guys who choose Michigan, which all these guys have done. I'd so much rather than they come back, improve their games, and win. In reailty thought, transfers happen, and this is how I see it at the moment.
+1 for reasoned and well-articulated comment. Since there is a recent thread on grammar police and how annoying they are, allow me to humbly comment that I would prefer "reluctant" to "reticent".
You're probably right. I'm frequently guilty of using ten dollar words when a five cent word would have sufficed (and been much clearer), and in this case I appear to have stumbled into a mid-20th century repurposing of a older word. I'm generally a fan of trying to preserve meaning and precision in language, so I will adjust my usage of "reticent" accordingly. You learn something new every day, right? Thanks!
Same 2 i also think.
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clear path to playing time, if they can show that they can play the four (on both ends). In fact, we need them to do that.
yes to Spike coming back and don't mind someone else transferring, especially if it's Chatman or Wilson.
i say keep chatman at this point, in case irvin is in a prolonged funk
chatman IS a prolonged funk (~35% 2pt and 26% 3pt).
I just don't see a high ceiling with Chatman. Looks like a great kid, but he is what he is. I know Coach B has had a few misses recently, but I like his talent evaluation. I would like to see the scholarship freed up.
Chatman stepped up his game near the end of the season, and by that time the lineup was pretty set. He definitely was getting more minutes, however. He seemed a lot more confident.
Webb said from the start that Chatman would be a project and not to expect a 5* level talent from the start, and maybe he finally clicks? Not everyone who fails to play at an elite level their first two years of college continues to play at that same level.
How do we know "he is what he is"?
We're talking about a 19 year old kid. People are so quick to give up on players around here.
Steph Curry, hell even Michael Jordan were not the players they grew into at 19. There's only one LeBron.
It's possible Chatman never improves, but wow, it's way too early to give up on him.
Everyoe loves the back-up qb, the possible next coach, or the unknown, potential recruit.
I guess it's human nature to prefer the unknown to the known.
An upperclass Chatman is likely to be far more valuable than an open scholarship - almost certainly for next year's team.
I have seen two years of him. He has not improved. He has very little lateral quickness, he can't elevate very well and he is sized like a 3. None of those "issues" can be developed.
Most 3's are your best athlete and can beat their man off the dribble. He is a poor 3 point shooter ( on a % basis) and has no mid range game. So he really can't play the three He is not strong enough to play 4 and start. I know Beilein does not run a traditional offense. But Chatman can neither create his own shot or draw the defense to the 3 point line.
IMO, he is not and will never be a quality starting 3 or 4 in the big ten. Even if he makes a leap like Donnal did this year, that means he becomes a quality 10 - 15 minute guy off the bench.
Beilein can do better.
even when Chatman has showed flashes he has received little or no playing after which shows how the coaches view him. Wilson has more upside IMO.
Who has more upside standing in the corner of a tied game with 2 seonds left and a tournament bid on the line?
Chatman started the year 2-16 from 3-point range. He then played very little the middle part of the season. From February on, he got more minutes and shot 7-15 in B1G games.
If he can consistently make the wide open threes he'll get as a 4 in this offense, he'll stay on the floor. Hopefully the latter part of the season is more indicative of what he can do going forward.
this will open up spots for recruits moving forward where we can hopefully get some higher rated guys at the wings where we will need guys after next season.
I hope this means that Beilein will be more willing to play 2 bigs on the floor more often like playng Donnal and Wilson at the 4 spot for instance.