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Date Title Body
06/18/2018 - 1:57pm I was skeptical when these…

I was skeptical when these were announced, but these look awesome. Well done.

06/13/2018 - 12:00pm Matt D runs a recruiting…

Matt D runs a recruiting site, Endless Motor Sports, and he/they have McDaniels ranked #1 overall.

05/21/2018 - 7:15pm YNWA

nm

04/28/2018 - 1:47pm EECS 482

EECS 482 (Operating Systems) was far and away the most useful real-world course I took during my CS degree. If you think you're interested in any kind of systems or high performance programming, it's a pretty important course. I wish I had taken the compilers course; that material is useful just for teaching you how to think about code. I skipped EECS 381 and I'm happy I did. The best way to learn a language or its features is to try them in a "real" project on your own. EECS 481 seems practical, but I'm not sure if it really helps, because software engineering practices vary so widely and are all crap.

04/20/2018 - 12:08am That puts the class at #8

That puts the class at #8 nationally in the composite, just behind #7 Maryland for #2 in the Big Ten. Very nice. MSU is #14 nationally, and then Indiana, Illinois, OSU, and Northwestern are #21-24.

04/13/2018 - 2:00pm Huh? In this article, a "Way

Huh? In this article, a "Way Too Early" Top 25 which went up on April 2nd, they had Michigan as the #12 team in the country. They had us behind MSU, which is the ridiculous part, and certainly enough bulletin board material in its own right, but they definitely included us.

Anyway, to your larger point: HELL YEAH, so fired up for next year already!

04/11/2018 - 5:19pm Adrien Nunez

Why no mention of Adrien Nunez? I know he'll be a true freshman, and not as ready to be a major contributor as Iggy, but surely the fact that he'll actually be a shooting guard on the roster is relevant? Or are you projecting him as a three, not a two?

04/10/2018 - 7:46pm I was visiting a friend in

I was visiting a friend in England when this game happened. We took the evening off from standard tourism stuff to watch the match. It was the first soccer match I'd ever watched in its entirety. Been a fan of Liverpool and soccer in general ever since. What an incredible night. YNWA.

03/26/2018 - 9:57am Not just you.

There might be some credence to the idea that FSU's length was bothering our three-point shooting, but you have to put a *lot* of credence into the idea that being bothered on one shot throws off your rhythm on a different shot, because some of those were completely uncontested and still missed. I feel like a normal three point shooting day nets us a pretty boring, convincing win, and no one is talking about FSU's D.

03/12/2018 - 2:09pm Yeah, I do think it's fair to

Yeah, I do think it's fair to call out the committee for ex-post rationalization of their selections. As human beings, they are hardly unique in that aspect. I just would rather people not use MTSU as their poster child.

03/12/2018 - 2:07pm I understand this point of

I understand this point of view. I definitely think the tournament would be more *interesting* if you had St. Mary's and MTSU and other better mid-majors over the major conference teams on the bubble. But I'm pretty sure "interesting-ness" isn't the criteria the committee is using. As long as they are supposed to be looking at team quality, that's what I think they should be judged on.

03/12/2018 - 12:20pm I really do not understand

I really do not understand why MTSU is suddenly the hill everyone is willing to die on with respect to NCAA tourney selection. I know KenPom isn't the final word on this stuff, but MTSU is the #52 team on KenPom. They are behing Maryland, USC, Baylor, Louisville, Notre Dame, Penn State, and St. Mary's. It's really fine that they aren't in the tourney.

What major conference teams got a real gift from the committee? Again per KenPom, Providence is about the only truly eggregious selection. And if you want to complain about Syracuse, Alabama, UCLA, Oklahoma, and Arizona State, fine. But if you're really trying to be objective about this, you aren't replacing those teams with MTSU. You're replacing them with Penn State, Notre Dame, Louisville, Baylor, USC, Maryland, and St. Mary's, almost exclusively other major conference teams.

So yes. St. Mary's got fucked. Let's go die on that hill. MTSU? No. And Nebraska? Get out. I'm never gonna feel bad if the #57 team on KenPom gets "snubbed" from the tourney. Come on.

You want to look at things other than KenPom? Cool, that's fine. Again, I'm not saying KenPom has to be gospel. But his rankings are probably *close enough* to an objective assessment that people shouldn't be getting their dander up if a marginal team gets snubbed in favor of another marginal team.

03/02/2018 - 9:10pm Why was Tate riding the bench

Why was Tate riding the bench for the entire end of the game while Dakich was on the floor? Does anyone know? Dakich is so weak defensively that OSU had to double Carr, which led to the game winning dunk. Tate had only four fouls and he's one of OSU's critical players. Really want an explanation on that one. And then OSU's "play" with three seconds left was total trash. Holtmann did an amazing job this year, but he has some questions to answer about the end of this game.

Also: LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

03/02/2018 - 7:56am Yup

I have these same thoughts every single time Michigan is in a position like this. With 0.9 left, just softly lob the ball at your tallest player, standing at mid-court (or heck, even farther), and have him try to set the thing like a volleyball, as high in the air as he can. Even if you turn it over in that situation, it's going to be *impossible* for the opposing team to gather the ball and shoot it in 0.9 seconds. If your guy sets it, 0.9 will elapse before the ball hits the ground. Even if it just grazes him, 0.9 will elapse before the ball can go anywhere. And even if the opposing team somehow flies in and intercepts, their only option is to immediately chuck a half-court shot without even really being able to come set. UVa's only real shot is to force a turnover without any time running off, like a five second violation. All you have to do is make sure that one thing doesn't happen, and it's *so* easy to do that if you just think about it for even a split second.

AND IT'S NOT EVEN THE DUMBEST THING THAT HAPPENS IN THAT SEQUENCE BECAUSE WHO THE HELL EVEN CHALLENGES A THREE POINT SHOOTER WHEN YOU'RE UP FOUR WITH UNDER A SECOND LEFT!?!??!?!?!?!??!??!?!??!?!?!??!?!?

Glorious. Fuck Louisville.

02/18/2018 - 5:55pm The UCLA game was a vital

The UCLA game was a vital game for our tourney chances that we won in overtime after mounting an incredible comeback in regulation. Muppets totally justified.

02/16/2018 - 4:44pm You're welcome!

The incessant negativity around here is really starting to get to me.

02/16/2018 - 4:44pm (No subject)

boo this man

02/16/2018 - 4:40pm Thanks for being a good

Thanks for being a good sport. I just figured: hell, if we're gonna consider what happens if literally every single possible unknown breaks in one direction, might as well explore the possible upside too, you know?

02/16/2018 - 4:38pm Well, the epilogue here is

Well, the epilogue here is that the national desire to see what a Harbaugh team could really do if let off the leash gives Jim the platform he needs to agitate for a 16 team playoff. A summer of non-stop touring the country promoting the idea while recruiting leads to the #1 ranked recruiting class and causes the NCAA to push through priority legislation increasing the playoffs to 16 teams for the 2019 season, paving the way for Michigan to roll to the first 17-0 season in NCAA history, including two playoff wins in Michigan Stadium, since the higher ranked teams are given homefield advantage in the opening rounds.

01/16/2018 - 5:03pm Maryland has a guy on the

Maryland has a guy on the list: Jalen Smith.

So I guess the point stands?

01/15/2018 - 2:02pm I'm guessing Brian is looking

I'm guessing Brian is looking at fouls per possession. Michigan plays at such a slow pace that you have to look at tempo-free numbers to get an accurate picture. For example, for years now, looking at Michigan's points per game numbers would have led you to believe that we were a defense oriented team carrying a mediocre offense because our points allowed and scored per game were both very low. In reality, of course, the opposite has been true (great offenses, mediocre defenses), but you can't tell unless you look at the tempo-free numbers because our pace of play screws up per game averages.

01/15/2018 - 9:23am My apologies if your question

My apologies if your question was a subtle joke that went over my head, but on the assumption your question is serious, the answer is:

We didn't schedule Chaminade. We had to play them after losing to LSU in Maui, since that's the way the loser's bracket wound up. John Beilein even joked that he had hoped never to play Chaminade in his career, because the implication was that you'd lost in Maui's first round. It was much discussed at the time: the LSU loss was a double whammy: a loss to a mediocre team that also removed a game against a D1 team from the schedule. Michigan definitely would not have chosen to play Chaminade.

01/12/2018 - 12:39am Good post, but...

I don't think you can say that the 2014 class was the worst class. It has one first round NBA draft pick (Wilson), one solid four year player (MAAR), and three transfers, but even that undersells it, as Kam Chatman would have had a definite role on this year's team. He was not a player Michigan wanted to lose. He was just starting to assert himself at Michigan when he left to follow BA to Detroit, where he's shooting 46% from three this year while averaging 18 points and ~9 rebounds a game. I'd much rather have him than Doyle, Dawkins, Donnal, or Watson, despite the fact that he didn't blossom here at Michigan.

Meanwhile, the 2015 class has one player (Moe) who might go in the first round of the NBA draft and no one else. That's worse than 2014. And the 2016 class, while still obviously a ways to go before we can fully evaluate it, has a couple of guys who might be four year players (Z and Teske), one guy who will probably never play any significant role for Michigan (Watson, who is going to be stuck behind everyone for the rest of his career, if he sticks around), and a guy (Davis) who could be anything from solid contributor as a redshirt sophomore to a transfer candidate. I think that's worse than 2014 too.

To put 2014 at the bottom, you have to count recruiting misses as more important than recruiting hits, which I think is the opposite of what you'd want to do. Recruiting misses eventually transfer away and free up scholarships; recruiting hits form the backbone of your program. This is especially true since John Beilein only wants to play 8-9 guys regularly anyway. The fliers he took on Dawkins and Doyle weren't that costly; but hitting on DJ and MAAR was tremendously beneficial. Meanwhile, the 2015 class will only ever contribute one guy; we could have desperately used some more players in that class.

Anyway, those are my two cents. Great post!

01/10/2018 - 12:11am With you 100%. I was all for

With you 100%. I was all for replay, but now I feel like it's being used predominantly to endlessly litigate technical nonsense. If we were just making sure we got the obviously terrible calls changed, it would be a positive. But taking that much time to review the out of bounds call in tonight's game is just ridiculous, and then to rule against the spirit of the rule for no reason is the topper. Is there a way to take replay away from the officials on the floor entirely and let someone else ensure that just the important, obvious crap gets dealt with?

01/10/2018 - 12:05am Fucking thank you!

I was a big supporter of replay and an advocate for it, but I've realized that all it does is change arguing about some dumb pointless crap to arguing about other dumb pointless crap.

I've been saying this about baseball slides for a year or two now. Every time a guy executes a pop-up slide, his foot is going to leave the bag for a split second. The runner isn't trying to advance, he's still over the bag, but now we will call him out on replay. It's a travesty, a damn technicality that has nothing to do with the actual game. Terrible.

The out of bounds call tonight is the exact same thing. Why do even want to decide shit on the dumbest of technicalities like that when it's clear where the spirit of the rule lies? Replay makes it so much worse.

01/09/2018 - 2:59pm This analysis is exactly

This analysis is exactly right. I've thought the same exact thing many times.

01/03/2018 - 3:21pm As far as I know, all of

As far as I know, all of Kenpom's metrics are tempo-free, so Michigan's slow pace isn't hurting them there.

01/03/2018 - 11:56am MAAR was an excellent three

MAAR was an excellent three point shooter last year, actually. What's exciting is that Z's three point shot is now a very credible threat. If teams have to respect it, that lets Z use his natural quickness to penetrate. This may not lead to a lot of shots around the basket, given his height, but if it leads to a lot of kick outs for open threes, that's good enough.

01/03/2018 - 11:51am I think the odds that Ibi

I think the odds that Ibi Watson transfers after this year are very high no matter what happens. I don't wish the kid ill, nor do I like transfers, but look at it from his point of view: he's behind Matthews, he's basically been passed by Poole, and then there's a whole incoming class with real talent. There's just not a clear path to playing time in the future if he hasn't broken through already, and John Beilein is not one to just roll veterans out there. If a young guy and a veteran are close, he often likes to roll with the young player who has more room to improve.

Davis is also a possibility, I would think, especially if Moe returns, as Teske would be the clear second big, and Castleton is coming in. This transfer would suck, as he got the redshirt instead of Teske. It would be so much nicer if senior Moe were being backed up by RS sophomore Teske. Oh well.

01/03/2018 - 11:42am Sort of

Crean was saying that Duncan Robinson was a good help defender, so the best way to attack UM was to isolate Robinson and attack him directly. I dunno if Robinson is a good help defender or not, but Crean was definitely saying that you needed to attack Robinson one on one, which is what we all already know and are afraid of.

12/13/2017 - 8:44am Answers

1. Yes, that's how Dick Vitale sounds these days.

2. No, Texas does not run "Havoc" like Smart's teams at VCU. They pressed a little bit, mostly towards the end, but it was not the all-full-court, all-the-time stuff he ran at VCU.

12/13/2017 - 8:43am Answers

Meant to reply to the post above.

12/12/2017 - 11:24am FUCK YES

Couldn't have asked for a better Michigan football tidbit this morning. Is it August yet?

12/09/2017 - 10:14pm People have to remember:

People have to remember: Stanton's contract is absolutely huge, especially for a corner outfielder. The most valuable players in baseball aren't the guys with enormous contracts; by and large they're being paid what they're actually worth. The most valuable players are the pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players who play at MVP levels but can't be paid what they're worth. When you trade a guy like Stanton, who's got a fair market contract, you're never going to get the same type of return you would get for a guy being paid below market (like Chris Sale was). What you get is all that money freed up.

12/09/2017 - 2:44pm Bang Me!

What an amazing win! I was gearing up emotionally for another dumb loss where somehow just can't make a shot, but every piece of opponent nonsense goes in, and then suddenly we starting shutting them down on D, Z gets that absolute piece of junk to go in, and it was onnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

12/08/2017 - 1:56pm He's also not an economist

Or he'd know that There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch...

12/07/2017 - 3:34pm Normally, I'm not a fan of

Normally, I'm not a fan of night games, but early season night game against ND sounds great. And as much as I hate this being on the road, we should be the more experienced team by far, so having this game as our opener might work to our advantage.

11/29/2017 - 5:43pm Thanks for the update!

I honestly thought that it would look quite a bit different when you looked at total holds on a per play basis, but: nope! Good stuff!

11/29/2017 - 4:35pm Request for information

Could we see accepted and declined holding calls together and see them both normalized to the number of plays on the field for each defense?

11/29/2017 - 4:28pm These are great points.

These are great points. Another possible bias (not that I think this is true): a great defensive line is probably more likely to get a sack or a TFL *even with an offensive hold* and thus may decline more penalties than a team with a worse defensive line.

11/28/2017 - 1:22pm I don't think we even

I don't think we even disagree that much. Like I said: I'm not expecting perfection. I want consistency. And yes, you aren't even going to get perfect consistency. That's fine too. I get that officiating is hard. Honestly, I tend not to complain about officiating for the exact reasons you outline.

What bothers me is that nobody in charge seems to care. It's not like we've already exhausted all options to improve officiating. We're not well beyond the point of diminishing returns here. The B1G and NCAA seem to put as little effort as possible into officiating quality. It feels an awful lot like they're doing the bare minimum they can get away with, and it affects the quality of the product they're putting forward. It sucks. I'd feel more lenient if I felt like the people in charge actually gave a shit.

11/28/2017 - 11:40am I don't think there's a

I don't think there's a conspiracy and I don't expect the officials to get it perfect. I do expect them not to turn every big game into a fucking shit show and to obtain at least some moderate level of consistency. If you're gonna call borderline, ticky-tack shit, then call it both ways. If you're gonna let stuff go, let it go both ways. Don't call that hold on Hudson, or Bredeson, or Cole and then let absolutely 100% identical (or worse) shit go the other direction.

No, there's not much, if anything, we can do about it. No, there's no conspiracy. No, it isn't a decades long screw job. Yes, every fan base feels screwed by the officials, pretty much all the time. I'm still mad about it, and I'm still happy other people, especially neutrals, notice it from time to time. And hell, if bitching about it loud enough can raise awareness in the poor quality of CFB officiating enough to get us even a slight improvement, then fan-fucking-tastic.

11/28/2017 - 11:06am Re: Hurst

You can interpret the initial shove of Hurst past the QB as a legal play if you want, but keep watching. As Hurst is trying to pursue the QB, his OL has two fists full of jersey and is dragging him back. It's not even close to being legal. It's just insane.

11/22/2017 - 8:18am Agree, in general

But I think Isaiah Livers is pretty close. He made one of those smooth, easy dunks where you're shocked at how easy it was for him to explode up above the rim. That's what I want to see: guys who make it look easy, like THJ or GR3. Meanwhile, Poole's dunk was one of those "Yeah, I can dunk, but just barely" types. And for as much as Zak Irvin contributed to the program, he bricked so many dunks, it was painful to watch him try. The one guy we had the last few years who was capable of making them look easy, Aubrey Dawkins, couldn't actually get them to go through the net. It's hurt not having the kind of athleticism that Matthews (and hopefully Livers) brings to the table.

11/22/2017 - 8:11am This is exactly right

We went through this all last year. Michigan shot 26% from three; LSU shot over 40%. How often do with think Michigan is gonna get outshot by 14% from three? And these were largely *not* wide open, easy looks. They hit a bunch of contested threes with hands in their face. And Michigan forced them to make a bunch of trick shots from two as well. They made them. It sucked.

So yeah, Michigan should have beaten LSU even with all that, but it's basketball, so shit just happens sometimes. If Michigan hits a normal percentage of three pointers and LSU doesn't make damn near everything they throw at the backboard, Michigan has an insurmountable lead going into those final critical minutes. Instead, they left the door open just a little bit, and didn't play well enough to seal the deal.

11/02/2017 - 10:10am This is what I was waiting for!

I will almost definitely sign up for 247 now.

10/30/2017 - 10:14am Mean reversion

"When a change at QB happens, you hear people talk about how a team's complexion and "attitude" changes with it, how when it goes well, the offense gets a new life and starts executing at a level previously unseen. Personally, I don't buy that as being a real phenomenon, since it presupposes that players give up on the starter and cover their diaries with odes to the boy on the bench."

 

There's a good explanation for this: mean reversion. Teams don't change quarterbacks when their quarterback is playing well. They change them when the quarterback is playing poorly. Now obviously, the poor play isn't usually completely random. It's not like JOK was playing well for weeks, had a couple bad series, and then was yanked for Peters. But at the same time, it's not like JOK has been routinely dropping snaps. And his first drive suffered a subsitution penalty that probably wasn't his fault either. In other words, there were some fairly random reasons for the offense's early struggles, things that were unlikely to continue going forward.

It's highly likely that the offense would have improved even if JOK had stayed in the game. Improved to the level that it did with Peters? Probably not. But my guess is that most of the "new energy" and "attitude" junk that you hear about on TV when a new QB enters the game has to do with two factors: the crowd gettting excited that the most popular player on the team is getting his shot FINALLY and simple mean reversion, the realization of improvements that would have largely occurred by chance had no change been made.

10/25/2017 - 12:24pm My heart goes out to you,

My heart goes out to you, EYB. I can't imagine the pain you're going through.

10/23/2017 - 3:54pm Ace tweeted that due to his

Ace tweeted that due to his travel arrangements the podcast is delayed by one day.

 

https://twitter.com/AceAnbender/status/922496412176273408

10/20/2017 - 10:17am I came to the realization the

I came to the realization the other day that I actaully won't be conflicted at all about who to root for when PSU plays MSU and OSU. I hope both those teams stomp the shit out of James Franklin's ridiculous, arrogant ass. I'm tired of that fan base. I'm tired of the "healing" narrative. I'm tired of seeing Franklin's smug bitch-ass face in press conferences acting like he invented football or something. Fuck that team for real.