Bowl Game predictions - How does yesterday's loss/Rudock's injury affect us

Submitted by James Burrill Angell on
Before yesterday's game the major websites were calling for us to go to a NY6 game with a win and the Citrus with a loss. After yesterday's performance (or lack thereof) and Rudock's injury (no word yet on how serious, correct?) will we drop further? Would we be better off dropping further if Rudock is out? The Big Ten Championship winner is likely in the playoff while the loser and Ohio State will end up in NY6 bowls. After that the Big Ten tie-ins in order are the Citrus, Outback, Holiday then Music City. Northwestern has a better record at 10-2 and might very well get the Citrus nod. Wisconsin is tied with us at 9-3 but they went to the Outback last year and bowls usually don't want the same team two years Ina row. For that reason alone I say Outback. However, if Rudock is hurt, I wonder if we drop further (Music City or even Pinstripe).

cbook

November 29th, 2015 at 10:51 AM ^

If it is his AC joint, chances are he should be able to play. He will not be 100% healed, but as long as he doesn't get driven into the ground with that shoulder his symptoms should be manageable by then. Based on his mechanism of injury, I would guess it is his AC joint, or possibly a clavicle fracture.

WallyWallace

November 29th, 2015 at 10:11 AM ^

..simply because of economics. They travel poorly with low ratings. We need Rudock regardless but the opponent's style of offense is critical too. If we play Mullen's crew, Dak Prescott and their Tbs will run wild with zone reads and we get to hear cow bells all game long. I simply want a game we can win, which against an SEC team would be LSU, Georgia or Arkansas IMO. Pro style attacks.

Crazy w Cheese Whiz

November 29th, 2015 at 10:22 AM ^

Speight coming in to beat Minnesota, looked way better than Russell Belomy coming in versus Nebraska , or the Shane Morris train wreck against Minnesota and KSU.

Our sample size for Speight is too small, but the fact that Speight actually became comfortable after a couple of plays, is way better than what we some from backup QBs under Hoke/Borges/Nussmeier.  

Crazy w Cheese Whiz

November 29th, 2015 at 10:18 AM ^

Depends on the opponent...plus I give Harbaugh a lot more credit to develop a QB over 3-4 weeks than Borges.  

I don't see Shane Morris vs. Kansas State again.  If Rudock is hurt, expect an okay QB day from Speight (or Malzone/Gentry?), a few pics, 55% completion rating on short and medium passes.

Michigan's coaching staff isnt perfect, but I do think they try to set-up offensively in schemes that can work for their personnel.

 

 

Perkis-Size Me

November 29th, 2015 at 10:18 AM ^

Won't matter. Michigan is still a huge draw regardless of who's at QB, so we'll likely be in the Citrus Bowl against either Florida or Ole Miss. Northwestern has a better record, but we shat on them two months ago, and they are not a good TV or tickets draw.

Hoping its Florida. That's a game I could say Michigan has a legitimate chance of winning. They have a great defense and no offense. But if Rudock is out, it'll be tough sledding against anyone we play. They'll load the box with 9 guys and dare Speight to beat them with his arm.

At least he'd have a month to prepare.



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Moonlight Graham

November 29th, 2015 at 10:20 AM ^

that we'd go 9-4. That would be an 8-4 regular season with a win over a weaker bowl opponent, or 9-3 regular season with a loss to a stronger bowl opponent. 

Beating the 8-4 regular season prediction has been at least very satisfying, This means the team took a huge step forward from the previous two years and beat the teams they were supposed to beat: a tough non-conference matchup with BYU, Minnesota and Penn State on the road. So no Holiday or Foster Farms bowl. 

We also of course have a chance to exceed my expectations by beating a good bowl opponent. I would LOVE to see either Georgia or LSU, as all the other SEC candidates we've already played in the last 10-20 years (Tenn, Ole Miss, MSUntmsu, Florida) as part of the Citrus-Outback-Gator tie-in. 

I like our chances against either if Rudock plays. If not, I'm confident Harbaugh and Fisch can get Speight ready but it will still be tougher sledding. 

Outback or Citrus are kind of interchangeable, I don't think the average fan tunes in to either game and knows what bowl and what stadium they're playing in anyway. They're played at the same time on New Year's Day, an hour away from each other, between Big 10 and SEC, on ESPN/ABC networks.

The Citrus Bowl is supposedly the "higher" ranked bowl but the Outback is played in a nicer NFL stadium so not much difference there. Throw in the Gator Bowl being played on NYD in past years and January 1 seemed like some sort of Big 10-SEC Challenge in football, conveniently played squarely in SEC country. 

Perkis-Size Me

November 29th, 2015 at 12:20 PM ^

LSU is not OSU. Yes, Fournette is as good as Elliott, if not better, but part of what makes OSU so tough to defend is that you also have Miller, Barrett, and Marshall who can take off with the ball and take it to the house. Can't possibly account for all of them.

LSU's offense is Fournette and no one else. It would not be easy to defend, but you can more easily key in on one guy and then trust Lewis and Peppers to do their jobs locking down receivers on the outside.



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Padog

November 29th, 2015 at 10:21 AM ^

I want Northwestern to jump us and knock us down a bowl. It will make our team mad and will give us an easier opponent. I want no part of a team with some crazy offense. Florida is as good of a team that I want to play. 

mGrowOld

November 29th, 2015 at 10:44 AM ^

If getting mauled in front of about 30 million or so witnesses yesterday, at home, by our biggest rival, AGAIN doesnt make them mad I'm not quite sure how you see the indignity of Northwestern jumping us in the bowl pecking order doing the trick.

ThatFatMan42

November 29th, 2015 at 10:21 AM ^

Well, looking at any of those options, we have a game sometime between Dec 30 and Jan 1.  Assuming Rudock isn't expected to be out longer than 4 weeks, he should be good to go.  Personally I think if we had a game next week he would play, but I'm no doctor.  

Probably Citrus or Outback bowl.  We need Rudock for either of those games for sure.

UofMfanJJ (not verified)

November 29th, 2015 at 3:55 PM ^

I was in the endzone behind him and I could hear that hit from about 40 yards away and it looked to me as if he went lifeless after that hit. As soon as he came to all I could hear was screaming of agony and a bunch of Michigan fans around me getting up and leaving. I have never felt such horror from within before. I only hope I never have to hear any possible children of mine scream in such agony pursuing their dreams.

alum96

November 29th, 2015 at 10:27 AM ^

UM has never played GA which is travesty for college football.  Make this happen.  Then set up a home and home with them in the late 2020s Hackett!  GA is down this year without their normal stable of 1500 yd rushers so would be a good matchup. 

FL vs UM play in 2017.  Also that could be a #M00F game - boring.

Big 10 will have a playoff team and 2 teams in the top 12.  Iowa is not falling out of top 12 even with a loss and neither will MSU with 2 losses.  So we will have loser of Iowa/MSU in the NY6 games along with OSU. 

NW has 10 wins but cmong man - half their stadium is opponents fans.  Wisconsin travels well but this is MICHIGAN.  Any bowl wants that for sex appeal and $$$ as do the networks. 

EricSV85

November 29th, 2015 at 10:28 AM ^

The B1G doesn't have any sort of tie-in with a bowl in Texas right? Now that our season is over my wife expects me to root with her for her Spartans. If they win they most likely jump to 2 or 3 putting them in the Cotton. I'll root for them to be at 4 and us getting the citrus so I can make a week out of being in Miami and Orlando.

redfirelx

November 29th, 2015 at 10:31 AM ^

Folks should check out the big ten bowl agreement and overview. Here are some highlights, I'd call attention to #3. The bowl needs to pick 5 different teams over 6 years. So the Citrus Bowl will take teams it thinks are best for $$$$, but will also consider the long term over 6 years (what teams can it get, when can it get them). I'm betting they think they can get Michigan in the near term future, but we'll see what happens.

 

CAPITAL ONE ORANGE BOWL (Miami Gardens, Fla.) or BUFFALO WILD WINGS CITRUS BOWL (Orlando, Fla.)

1. Orange Bowl hosting semifinal in 2015, therefore Big Ten team will play in Citrus Bowl.

2. Citrus Bowl will submit request for Big Ten team.

3. Citrus Bowl will feature at least five different Big Ten schools over six‐year agreement.

4. Big Ten guaranteed minimum of three Orange Bowl appearances over 12‐year agreement

OUTBACK BOWL (Tampa, Fla.)

1. Will feature at least five different Big Ten schools over six‐year agreement.

HOLIDAY BOWL (San Diego, Calif.)

1. Will feature at least five different Big Ten schools over six‐year agreement.

Saint_in_Blue

November 29th, 2015 at 10:32 AM ^

I hate bowl tie-ins with conferences. Because now if we do go to Citrus, we would most likely play Florida. In Florida. NOPE! I wouldn't mind doing the Citrus if we played someone like......North Carolina.....or Navy...........or UCLA. I'm just not a big fan of playing an SEC team in SEC country.

The Dude

November 29th, 2015 at 10:49 AM ^

Citrus Bowl...with an outsside shot at the Outback Bowl if the Fiesta Bowl doesn't pick a Big Ten team. Not sure how it affects them. Maybe they'll go heavy wildcat with Peppers (sarcasm)...

 

michiganfanforlife

November 29th, 2015 at 11:00 AM ^

About who draws a better travel crowd and who will have better Tv ratings is living in the past. The bowl committee now chooses the bowl matchups, not a group of executives with cigars masquerading as computers. Last year's bowl matches were so much better and it's no coincidence that the SEC did so badly as a result.

LSAClassOf2000

November 29th, 2015 at 11:24 AM ^

Based on what I can see, the consistent prediction for Michigan at this point is the Citrus Bowl, and a fair number of people are predicting that the opponent is Florida. That could actually be a rather interesting if somewhat boring game potentially. If it shakes out that way, of course, the larger point for me - I would say - is that a New Year's Day bowl is not a bad cap to the first season under Harbaugh. 

Gr1mlock

November 29th, 2015 at 11:28 AM ^

For purely selfish reasons (I.E. I live in San Diego) I'm hoping they go to the holiday bowl. Most likely we're in line for Outback. But. Being that the bowl partners need to pick 5 teams in 6 years and most people expect Mich to be good for a while, I could see the citrus and outback saying "let's wait until mich is a little better before we use them up."



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Leaders And Best

November 29th, 2015 at 11:46 AM ^

I think Michigan is probably going to end up in the Citrus Bowl. I think the only scenario that could possibly change this is if Iowa were to beat MSU. Ohio State is going to be in the top 10 so they are a lock for one of the NY6 bowls. It is possible MSU could fall out of the NY6 bowl picture with a loss to Iowa and bump Michigan out of the Citrus, but I think it is unlikely.  Iowa is probably a lock for a NY6 bowl (Rose Bowl) even with a loss to MSU in the B1G Champ Game.