Hoke Chimes In and Would Not Have Punted
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/2015/10/21/ex-michigan-coach-br…
Okay, you guys are sick of seeing MSU threads, chew on this one.
Personally, if we have the No. 1 defense in the nation I'm going to test those guys," Hoke said. "You've got to play to the strength of your football team and the strength of the Michigan football team all year long has been their defense." He said he was sure "Jimmy" went over what he wanted to do and how he wanted to do it but Hoke said there are too many potential breakdowns on a punt. "No. 1, I think the one gunner to the field should have been in a little bit more and if you're going to punt it there's ways to protect it a little better," Hoke said. Hoke first credited the MSU defense for forcing fourth down and said he would have gone for it at that point, handing the ball to De'Veon Smith and "challenge your offensive line" or play-action pass to take four to five seconds off the clock.
October 21st, 2015 at 2:50 PM ^
Hoke thinks we had one too many players on the field
October 21st, 2015 at 4:22 PM ^
Because that didn't happen in this game with Harbaugh as head coach, right?
October 21st, 2015 at 2:50 PM ^
This game is easy to play.
If I was the coach last year, there's no way Shane Morris gets the start over Devin Gardner.
October 21st, 2015 at 3:03 PM ^
The funny thing is that even his hindsight is bad. Go for it, in that position? You've gotta be kidding me.
October 21st, 2015 at 5:23 PM ^
The only reasonable alternative on that play is to snap the ball to the QB, have him roll out and buy some time, then chuck it as far and high down teh field out of bounds as possible. But...first of all, do we relaly trust our OL against the DL in that situation more than we trust the special teams and punter? Secondly, with 10 seconds left, will the play actually run out the clock, or will state be left with a Hail mary with 1 second left? If the clock was at 5 seconds, yeah, maybe you just try to run the clock out with an offensive snap. But not 10 seconds. Small but significnat difference.
And I mean, really, Hoke is being dishonest. He would do exactly what Harbaugh did in that situation...and every other effing coach in the country too. Maybe now it gives coaches something to think about when punting with that muhc time left near midfield...but...I mean, there's absolutely no criticism to be had on the decision to go for it, and anyone who says otherwise is, frankly, dumb. So congrats, Brady Hoke! You know how the coaching intelligence of Mark May.
October 21st, 2015 at 2:50 PM ^
Not entirely ridiculous as MSU was outside of Field Goal range at the time.
Not second guessing this either way, but I don't necessarily think we should be consigning this to the, "Is Hoke, is therefore stupid." bin. The man may not have managed the program well but he was pretty ballsy on fourth down the first year.
October 21st, 2015 at 2:58 PM ^
Deliberately lowering your statistical probability of winning is pretty ridiculous. If you go for it there, you move from 99.8% to somewhere around 96-97%.
October 21st, 2015 at 3:31 PM ^
that you turn the ball over and that Staee converts the hail mary? Just curious.
October 21st, 2015 at 4:07 PM ^
After plugging in the numbers, if Michigan goes for it in that situation, factoring in their odds of a conversion and the odds of a subsequent hail mary, the win probability is 98.32%. And that's assuming an average matchup between offensive and defensive lines, which this obviously was not. It's also assuming an average botched snap rate among punters, which this probably was not (O'Neill had never muffed a punt prior to this game).
So at a minimum, you would lose 1.5%, and factoring in Michigan's personnel, it's probably quite a bit more than that.
I think the only reasonable argument to be made in favor of Hoke is that intentionally sending a ball 15 yards backwards in the face of 10 guys does expose to you to the possibiltity of a catastrophic error in a way the going for it does not. The numbers still support kicking, but I can see why a coach would be scared to do it.
October 21st, 2015 at 4:31 PM ^
and I think that is a fair analysis. You really can't blame Harbaugh for kicking, but I can also see the argument in favor of going for it.
October 21st, 2015 at 5:22 PM ^
October 21st, 2015 at 5:35 PM ^
The .2% chance encompasses all possibilities that lose you the game. It's the overall chance of losing when punting from the 47 with ten seconds left.
October 21st, 2015 at 2:59 PM ^
The odds of a running back fumbling or a quarterback throwing an INT are probably higher than the odds of the punter botching the kick. I don't get why people think for even a second that punting was the wrong decision.
October 21st, 2015 at 3:21 PM ^
a high stress situation for a punter, a player who is not usually the focal point of the pressure cooker. There are also contingencies in special teams that you can't remotely prepare for and you are using a unit that has one limited function and is hardly, if ever, asked to adapt to changing circumstances or improvise.
If you go for it there, you are dictating whose hands you put the ball in. There is a reasonable argument to be made that he should have gone for it. I am not saying it is a winning argument but it is not nonsensical either. If we would have been at our 40, punting is unquestionably the move because a miracle field goal is remotely possible if we don't pick it up.
October 21st, 2015 at 3:35 PM ^
Isn't the punter also the holder on field goals/extra points. Albeit a different role, but the punter has to perform in those cases which can be the focal point of a pressure cooker.
October 21st, 2015 at 3:48 PM ^
not saying that a punter never has to perform in a high stress situation, but it was quite clear the minute he dropped the ball that he did not have the football instincts that another player would have had. He was not oriented to time and place and this is evidenced by his assumption that he had ANY chance to successfully punt it once he dropped it. A bad thing could have happenned regardless of who had the ball but it likely would not have been catastophic.
October 21st, 2015 at 3:20 PM ^
I think punting was the right decision and have absolutely no problem with the call(Beyond hating the universe for this cruel, cruel, twist of fate). That said, I don't think Hoke is off-base here.
Had MSU been within field goal range you absolutely have to punt, but in this case if you can run the clock down, perhaps get an icing first down or at worst ensure their next shot at the end zone is still low probability then it's a decent risk to take.
October 21st, 2015 at 7:29 PM ^
assuming we had the personnel to do it, is to keep the offense on the field but have the QB do a pooch punt. Griese was a master at that -- anyone know if Rudock can do it?
October 21st, 2015 at 3:03 PM ^
advocating for them to go for it during the game. Not because I thought that was going to happen but just because we were on their side of the field and voluntarily sending it back the other way almost 20 yards did not make me feel comfortable. I was scared of a block and a field goal because the score differential was only 2. I was not remotely concerned with The Worst Thing Ever because I did not know God hated us that much.
October 21st, 2015 at 3:08 PM ^
and I see the logic in going for it. The thing I like about going for it is you have a chance of picking up the first down and the game is over and if not then Staee still has to convert a hail Mary. But obviously it is a close call and it was very unlikely that what happened would happen.
October 21st, 2015 at 3:44 PM ^
If we did go for it, and didn't make it, they would have had a 55 yd attempt of less if they threw us for a loss - which could have easily been the case as they would have stuffed the boss. I don't think I want to hand them a 55 yd attempt to win the game - punt!
October 21st, 2015 at 3:51 PM ^
are not talking about a 55 yard field goal are you? We were on their side of the field. You may be thinking of where Blake dropped it but not the LOS. It would have been a flat out hail mary. (Which Harbaugh once converted, and I think that likely played into his decision).
October 21st, 2015 at 6:20 PM ^
If Michigan goes for it and the LOS doesn't change then MSU has the ball on their 47 yard line. That makes a FG try of approximately 70 yards.
October 21st, 2015 at 10:27 PM ^
Jesus, you must be joking. Where they were was an easy toss all the way into the end zone. Where the punt, any punt, would have landed, would have made that impossible.
Any coach in his right mind would have punted that ball, and Hoke says he would have gone for it. Surprised?
October 21st, 2015 at 2:50 PM ^
going to go over well. At least Harbaugh had 11 men on the field.
October 21st, 2015 at 2:50 PM ^
Hoke thinks we had one too many players on the field
October 21st, 2015 at 2:50 PM ^
Maybe he still doesn't realize there is no rule requiring you to punt short-handed.
October 21st, 2015 at 2:51 PM ^
Other options look better only in hindsight.
Please go away, Brady. We're trying really hard to pretend you never existed.
October 21st, 2015 at 10:32 PM ^
Hindsight is always 20/20, and IMO no coach with half a brain would have done anything other than punt that ball.
I feel this comment by Hoke was classless, and ill-advised, and please go away sums up how I feel as well.
October 21st, 2015 at 2:51 PM ^
That's rich considering he wouldn't have been within three touchdowns in the first place.
October 21st, 2015 at 2:52 PM ^
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October 21st, 2015 at 3:08 PM ^
He would have punted... cuz Hoke.
October 21st, 2015 at 3:00 PM ^
Holy hell. That is a terrifying gif.
October 21st, 2015 at 3:47 PM ^
Yeah, this wreck was much like the last 3 years of Michigan football under hoke! This gif is not only funny, but a good portrayl of his leadership.
October 21st, 2015 at 6:24 PM ^
Interesting, you picked a play that worked. You could also add the FG to beat Northwestern if you were feeling particularly generous..
October 21st, 2015 at 2:52 PM ^
If you trust your defense, isn't that the reason to punt?
October 21st, 2015 at 3:01 PM ^
Pretty much. He was aware, but not fully aware of what he's saying
October 21st, 2015 at 4:19 PM ^
October 22nd, 2015 at 12:59 AM ^
October 21st, 2015 at 6:26 PM ^
Punting was a concession that Harbaugh didn't feel his defense could successfully prevent a 53 yard Hail Mary pass.
October 21st, 2015 at 2:53 PM ^
October 21st, 2015 at 2:53 PM ^
October 21st, 2015 at 2:53 PM ^
October 21st, 2015 at 2:53 PM ^
come on...this has to stop
October 21st, 2015 at 2:55 PM ^
His team (with the same guys) would have been down 35-11 or 29-6 at that point in the game.