Houstan: Is he NBA ready?
Seeing the advancement of Ivey from Freshman to Sophomore year and the different slumps Houstan has been in throughout the season; is he ready to be one and done?
Dickinson although ar a different position had a more impactful role on the Team last year and decided (through NBA grading) to come back,
Does he return for another year to marinate under Howard's tutelage?
February 11th, 2022 at 11:51 AM ^
OK got it. Thank you. I interpret this to essentially mean that HD does not possess elite quickness/speed to stay in front of the play. I get that and agree. But Caleb Houstan is pretty much in the same boat, no? I asked this in a different post, so why is Caleb more NBA ready than HD?
February 11th, 2022 at 12:59 PM ^
It's not even just that Dickinson lacks 'elite' speed and quickness, his speed and quickness is barely adequate for CBB. That's not great when trying to project his fit on an NBA roster.
As for Houstan, he actually is a decent athlete and moves fairly well out on the perimeter. The reason people have an outlook on Houstan as a negative defender is because he is playing outside his most optimal position. Houstan is being asked to play the 3 for Michigan so that Diabate and Dickinson can play together. This means Houstan has been guarding up a position when his athletic traits don't really allow him to do so effectively; this is the main reason he has been exposed on the defensive end. IF Houstan were playing the 4, like he most likely would in the NBA, his defensive impact would be much closer to net neutral, perhaps even slightly positive.
Michigan has 0 wings capable of defending great isolation or PnR scorers. Eli is too small and not as athletic as some elite guards. Jones is way too foul prone and will sometimes get himself out of position on gambles for steals. Houstan is not athletically capable of keeping up with the most quick and skilled guards/wings of the opposing team. It's more of team roster construction and scheme fits being sub-optimal that have made Houstan look like a much worse defender than he actually is. I don't mean this to say that Houstan can be an elite defender (Franz) or even a very good defender (Livers or Chaundee), but I do think he can be OK on that end of the floor.
February 11th, 2022 at 6:37 PM ^
No, I'm sorry it's not the same. Luka Garza is generously listed at 6'10", has short arms and is glued to the ground. Dickinson is a legit 7'1" with much longer arms (also earth-bound). That's a huge difference - probably 6" of reach.
Garza is simply too small and slow to play in the league - he's a plodding undersized center with crafty moves and some touch - and at least at Iowa was a terrible defensive player (haven't seen him in NBA).
Dickinson is much longer and probably a better passer than Garza. While by no means a great defensive player, he's way better than Garza ever was at Iowa. His new ability to shoot threes makes him a legitimate NBA prospect IMO - if not as a starter at least as a solid backup.
I could certainly see him developing into a guy like Jakob Poeltl (7'1", 245), or Jusuf Nurkic (6'11", 290) or Ivica Zubac (7'0", 240) - or at least a Cody Zeller (6'11", 240). None of those guys are stars, but they've had pretty long NBA careers and have made a ton of money. They all suffer from similar athletic limitations - Zeller is probably quicker, but Hunter will be stronger. And no, he's not old - Duncan Robinson was 24 as an NBA rookie.
There simply aren't that many people on the planet that are 7 feet tall, have long arms and can shoot. Plus, Dickinson will continue to get stronger.
February 11th, 2022 at 11:23 AM ^
Myles Turner?! Do you see Hunter blocking three shots a game in the NBA?
February 11th, 2022 at 11:24 AM ^
His offense isn’t the thing putting a cap on his draft grade/nba potential. The problem is/will be his defense - he won’t be able to guard nba 5s
February 11th, 2022 at 11:39 AM ^
I read that HD won't be able to defend NBA 5s. OK fine. But then people seem to give the benefit of the doubt to Houstan as being a more likely draft pick. But Houstan also has been exposed defensively time and again this season.
I'm just not getting what really matters when it comes to being a sure fire draft pick.
February 11th, 2022 at 1:32 PM ^
For one, Houstan is 18 while Hunter is 20 - rightly or not, the NBA prefers youth and Houstan is likely to physically develop more going forward, which will presumably help his defense and make him more of an appealing prospect.
February 11th, 2022 at 11:29 AM ^
How does he remind you of Myles Turner?
February 12th, 2022 at 7:11 AM ^
He can defend 0 positions in the NBA.
February 11th, 2022 at 11:53 AM ^
Hyperbole is my friend. Taking the bet you offer is not...
February 11th, 2022 at 12:53 PM ^
Seems the OP basically created a post to get people to shit of the young man and lay out all the weaknesses in his game...well done for taking that bait.,,and adding a bit of flair w your insane comparison. No, you are not in the same league as any D1 player...unless you are getting some nice private training, competing regularl against some of the best in the game etc.
February 11th, 2022 at 9:55 AM ^
I don't see Houstan as NBA ready.
He played well last night and if he plays like this the rest of the season perhaps a NBA team would draft him.
But his track record this year is of inconsistency. To me he doesn't have the base athleticism to be looked by NBA teams as a star within 2-3 years.
But what do I know? I didn't think Poole was an NBA first round pick either.
February 11th, 2022 at 12:15 PM ^
Poole was kind of a hot mess at Michigan...both in the way he played and a seemingly not great attitude.
But, he did display quite a bit of potential in his athleticism, ball handling, shot creation, assertiveness, etc...that Houstan does not appear to have.
February 11th, 2022 at 9:56 AM ^
I like Houstan a lot... but he'd definitely benefit from another year in college.
If Ayo could somehow fall into the second round, there's a chance Caleb would slip out of the draft...
you can be a mid 2nd pick or UFA and develop and become a great pro... you can only be in college once. You can only be drafted once,
Maximizing that first contract is important, imo, especially if you don't have a long career...and first round picks have a higher percentage of their contracts as guaranteed unlike 2nd rounders
February 11th, 2022 at 9:57 AM ^
Can we please just bask in last night's win for a day? Just one day, that's all I ask.
What is it about Michigan fans that we insist on delivering our own dong punch if the opponent or refs or B1G or anyone else hasn't done it for us?
February 11th, 2022 at 9:59 AM ^
I’m no expert but I think he should come back. Still has a lot to learn and improve on. Obviously a great shooter but seems to struggle on the road. The other glaring deficiency I see is his ability, or inability, to finish at the rim. He has shown he can get to the basket but needs to develop some finishing moves or maybe it’s just confidence. I say one more year.
February 11th, 2022 at 10:01 AM ^
I haven’t seen him be able to create his own shot and his defense has not been over top outstanding. 10 - 15 years he ago he wouldn’t be drafted, now they draft on potential and of course the G league. He would probably get drafted. I would like to see him come back, but I can’t honestly say that if it was me and I could make a few million I would probably go.
February 11th, 2022 at 11:07 AM ^
I look at him a bit like Stauskas. As a freshman, Nik was the proverbial "Just-A-Shooter," and shot quite well, especially early and then again in the Elite 8 game, but that's all he was. No shot creation, and was frequently pulled for Caris Levert in late game defensive situations because he was a bit of a liability there. As a sophomore, he was physically stronger and developed the ability to shoot more off the dribble, and that opened up his passing off the pick and roll as drop coverage was not an option against him. As a result, we ended up largely running the offense through him almost to a final 4, and he wound up as the 9th pick in the draft.
Right now Houstan is sort of in the freshman Stauskas boat. He has athleticism deficiencies that make him a liability to defend his position at the college level, let alone pro. He is a good spot-up shooter, but he isn't going to dribble around a screen and hit a 3, so teams can focus more on defending a drive from him, and he doesn't have a good enough handle to consistently get to the basket without turning the ball over. He's also playing the 3 when at the college level he's more of a stretch 4.
The good news for Houstan is that his spot-up shot has improved to the point where I see the pass go to him and I'm expecting him to make the 3. The other good news is that if he can start to hit those same shots when he isn't standing completely still and wide open, it will open up the rest of his offensive game, and we could see a lot of the offense run through him next year, a la Stauskas 2014. It's easy to forget how young he is, and he will develop quite a bit even between now and next season. If Dickinson and Diabate do depart, Houstan will be able to be more of a centerpiece of the offense, and if he can build his shot creation skills he can rocket up the 2023 draft board. As it is now, if he does leave he's looking at at least a couple of years toiling away in Canton or Fort Wayne or wherever instead of playing in nationally-televised CBS games and making NIL $ on the side. I think he stays, and he'd be right both in the short and long term to do so.
February 11th, 2022 at 10:02 AM ^
is small for the NBA, he's like a less athletic and shorter duncan robinson at best. he's a 2 or 3 sized that moves (maybe) as well as a 4 or a 5. i would love to see him develop into our great sniper like duncan was, but he needs a year or two more of camp sanderson and JH's tutelage.
happy he got hot last night. hopeful it is the shape of things to come.
February 11th, 2022 at 10:03 AM ^
No, he’s not NBA ready and won’t be by the end of the year but that may not stop him from going though. I can say this though, if we don’t make the tournament or barely make it and lose Diabate, Dickinson and Houstan to the NBA, fans will lose patience with that very quickly. I don’t mind bringing in talent and I don’t mind them going pro but I don’t want to be a farm league for the NBA with subpar results while they are here. Imagine trying to replace Brooks, Dickinson, Jones, Diabate and Houstan for next year, especially when we’ve only signed four recruits. We would have three open spots and try to fill that with either unsigned marginal top 150 players or hope to heck there is some talent in the portal we can get through admissions.
February 11th, 2022 at 11:14 AM ^
Yeah, that fivesome scored 80 of our 82 points last night. Tough to replace that in a single recruiting class. Plus, I don't want to be Kentucky, throwing out a revolving door of high school phenoms that come in like mercenaries, throw on a jersey for a year and then bolt. One of the more enjoyable aspects of the Beilein tenure was to see a DWalt or Zavier come in, toil as a freshman backup, fix the holes in their games over their tenures, and become key pieces of great teams before they left as seniors. By contrast, a guy like Iggy Brazdeikas was sort of "oh yeah, that guy. What year was he on the team again?" Give me the 4 years of Teske, or even a couple years of a Franz or Poole instead. You get better early-season basketball, and the team is more fun and less frustrating to root for.
February 11th, 2022 at 10:04 AM ^
Not sure what seeing the advancement of Ivey from Freshman to Soph means as far as comparing to Houston being a 1 and done.
2 completely different players, and Ivey was much better as a freshman.
However Houston is very young and he will mature alot physically and mentally. Once he learns to play with an edge he will be great!
February 11th, 2022 at 10:10 AM ^
Considering the NBA drafts based on potential, and Houstan is oozing with it, my guess is that in that vein, he is NBA ready.
Now, do I think he's NBA ready at this juncture? Probably not, but there's plenty of time left in the season for that narrative to change. Mitch McGary wasn't on anyone's radar until the tournament and then he was projected as a lottery pick right afterwards, so things change fast.
Whatever he decides, its his life and his career, and if he thinks declaring after this season is what's best for him, tip your cap to him and thank him for his efforts.
February 11th, 2022 at 10:21 AM ^
If the NBA rolled out a league for "HORSE" sure he could get drafted
but as long as he has lousy footwork on his shot where it's virtually assured he is going to miss anything contested he isn't going anywhere.
February 11th, 2022 at 10:28 AM ^
Username fits
February 11th, 2022 at 10:28 AM ^
I think a lot of us agree he should come back for one more year, but when has that ever stopped these kids from leaving early.
February 11th, 2022 at 10:35 AM ^
In the previews and hello posts my understanding was that Houstan was more NBA-ready than Diabate with a higher floor and lower ceiling. I saw on the CBS mock draft that Houstan was still projected 21 or 22. With his struggles this year I'm wondering if his floor was lowered. I'm curious if it makes more sense for him to stay or to go. With him being so young I think an improved sophomore year would improve his stock significantly. A bad sophomore year would obviously be bad.
I'm hoping he's got rid of the freshman jitters, gives us a deep run in the tourney and is projected #1. ...and then still comes back for a legendary sophomore season.
February 11th, 2022 at 10:36 AM ^
Wrong question. Almost no one who declares early is NBA ready. The problem is the NBA doesn't care, as evidenced by the fact that most of the guys taken in the first round are also not NBA ready. As a result, the NBA sucks because there's a lot of unprepared guys playing bad basketball, and college basketball suffers because there's a lot of unprepared guys playing bad basketball. Basketball is not what it once was on any level. Not the players' fault. If someone's willing to pay them millions to slowly die in the G league might as well take it. The problem doesn't get fixed until the NBA decides to value experience in college, but they in fact value the opposite.
February 11th, 2022 at 10:53 AM ^
If Houstan can play like he's on fire for the remainder of the season and even carry this team to post season success, then he'll be ready. So TBD.
February 11th, 2022 at 10:53 AM ^
Yes, but only if he leads the team to a National Championship in March.
February 11th, 2022 at 10:59 AM ^
I don’t ever disparage players from going to get paid. However, Houstan with that jumper he has can definitely go to the NBA but if he wants to be a more well rounded player he should return one more year. Diabate athletically is ready for the NBA now but there’s no better big man coach than Juwan so he should return another year as well to refine his offensive repertoire . We will see.
February 11th, 2022 at 2:31 PM ^
Diabate is indeed athletic enough for the NBA but he is just so raw. Seems like the coaches are just scratching the surface on his development. One more year in college to develop some moves and work more on his knowledge, defense and shooting and he would probably be a lottery pick.
February 11th, 2022 at 11:05 AM ^
Jeez people, stop down voting the guy. He made a legitimate topic for conversation.
February 11th, 2022 at 11:07 AM ^
Houstan isn’t remotely ready. He needs to get much stronger and faster, which he can. But it would be a mistake to leave this year, as he won’t be a 1st rounder.
February 11th, 2022 at 11:08 AM ^
Everyone assumes coming back is automatically going to improve a player's stock but that's not actually true. The more you play in college the less "potential" you have. There are specific circumstances where coming back is valuable but many times it's counter productive. Caleb is a perfect example, if he could have been drafted straight out of high school he would have gone higher than he will now.
February 11th, 2022 at 11:43 AM ^
This is also true! The more tape you have, the more it can be scrutinized. I personally think he should stay, but that doesn’t guarantee his stock gets any better. There will be a new batch of Freshmen next year that could push him further down the draft board depending on how they perform.
February 11th, 2022 at 11:18 AM ^
I hope he comes back. It seems like too many FB/BB guys leave here and we bemoan guys living up to their potential right before they leave.
Whatever magic Izzo has to keep guys an extra year needs to rub off on Juwan.
February 11th, 2022 at 11:48 AM ^
But even in Izzo/MSU case does it make the player better? I could argue Bridges staying an extra year could’ve delayed his growth. People were yelling for Tillman to stay and said he was making a mistake, now he’s getting good minutes on a breakout Grizzlies team.
February 11th, 2022 at 11:26 AM ^
Based on his body of work over the first 22 games, no. To me, an NBA ready guy should at least be good enough to make an all conference first or second team. If you're not considered one of the best in your conference, how can you be considered good enough for a league that is the best of the best in the world? I know my view is overly simplistic and not based in today's reality, but it makes sense to me. And I am sure I'll get lectured about it here.
February 11th, 2022 at 11:39 AM ^
Is Houstan ready? That's not really the important question in my opinion. The actual question is does an NBA team feel like his potential plus his single year of production in college warrant using a draft pick on?
I think the answer to that question is yes. I don't think an NBA team would use a lottery pick on him, but I could see him drafted in the late 1st round right now. Caleb may be ok with that and declare or maybe he wants to come back to improve his draft stock. We'll just have to wait and see after this season ends.
I remain convinced that the main reason Caleb has struggled this season is because he is being asked to do too many things. Caleb is a 4 being asked to play the 3 so Michigan can have a frountcourt of Diabate + Dickinson. That's a fine plan, but it in essence makes Caleb guard up a position when he does not possess the raw athletic ability to do so. Caleb is being asked to guard the players that a guy like Franz or Livers would have guarded last year. It's a recipe for being exposed on the defensive end. Offensively, well the kid is an elite shooter on open and wide-open 3pt shots. Having Houstan spot up from 3pt range while the offense runs through Dickinson and Jones maximizes his strengths right now.
If Houstan decides to come back for another year at Michigan, his focus in the offseason should be to improve his ability to shoot from movement. Start with single-dribble and step-back jump shots and then move to pull-ups off of dribble-drives. If he can expand his shot-making toolbox to include those aspects then he would be a lock for the 1st round of the NBA draft with real lottery pick potential.
Caleb's highest potential is a starting-caliber stretch 4 who can be an elite 3pt shooter. Any NBA team that has an elite playmaker or an elite big man would be happy to use a pick on a kid with Houstan's shooting upside. However, his year at Michigan does raise some concerning questions: can you rely on him defensively in switch-heavy schemes and can you improve his offensive game to include some self-shot-creation?
February 11th, 2022 at 12:01 PM ^
He’s not big enough to play the 4 in the league.
February 11th, 2022 at 1:08 PM ^
Yeah, people keep saying Houstan needs to be a stretch 4 and he definitely does not. Not only is he not big enough on defense, he would be doing things he isn’t good at on offense like crashing the boards and setting picks for guards. He is best running through screens and being a spot up shooter. Last night he would have been guarding Trevion Williams when Edey was in the game. Williams outweighs him by 50 pounds. When Edey was out with foul trouble, he would have been guarding Furst or Gillis, who outweigh him by 30 pounds. So it isn’t that is too small to be a 4 in the NBA, he isn’t big enough to be a 4 on college
February 11th, 2022 at 1:14 PM ^
He is best running through screens and being a spot up shooter.
There are 4s in the NBA who do this already. Also, Houstan is currently not good at coming off screens to shoot. He is only efficient when shooting stand-still shots from kickouts/skip passes.
like crashing the boards and setting picks for guards.
Houstan does this during Michigan games as well.
Who he would have guarded against Purdue in one game on 02/10/2022 has very little bearing on his projection for the NBA. There are plenty of NBA teams that run similar-sized players to Houstan at the 4. Most NBA teams have 4s that operate out on the perimeter, not post-bound bigs like Trevion Williams, who is a 5 by the way. IF Purdue is running two 5s at the same time (Edey and Trevion) then Michigan was always going to counter with two 5s (Dickinson and Diabate). There are not that many teams that run with two 5s. SO Caleb is ok to play the 3 in that instance, since Michigan's defense is much more focused on stopping Edey and Williams inside.
February 11th, 2022 at 6:04 PM ^
This isn’t a Houstan vs Purdue problem, it’s a Houstan vs all teams problem. MSU he would be guarding Hauser. Outweighed by 30 pounds. Indiana he is guarding Thompson or Jackson-Davis, both outweighing him by at least30 pounds. Who have we played that you’ve seen him be able to guard their starting 4? Also, which 4s in the NBA do you know of that weigh 200 lbs?
February 11th, 2022 at 1:09 PM ^
Yes he is. He's 6'8". Plenty of 4s in the league right now that are that height and skinny like Caleb. One offseason of SnC in an NBA organization will probably be enough to make him ready right away.
Look at Cam Johnson for the Suns for instance: 6'8" wing at about 210 lbs.
Nic Batum with the Clippers is another example: 6'8" at about 200 lbs.
Chris Boucher for the Raptors: 6'9" at about 200 lbs.
Is Kevin Durant that much bigger at 6'10" 235?
February 11th, 2022 at 6:13 PM ^
Cam Johnson is the only one of those players who doesn’t have at least a 7 foot wingspan and all of those guys are infinitely more athletic at their size. Weight isn’t the only reason someone Houstan’s size shouldn’t be a 4. Also, KD is much, much bigger in size and length and weight, so I’m not sure why he was even mentioned.
February 11th, 2022 at 11:42 AM ^
I expect Houstan to go the combine and gauge his performance there and at workouts before making a decision. My guess is he gets a 1st-round promise from someone and goes pro.
February 11th, 2022 at 11:43 AM ^
I assume that many of those who have posted will say he is not ready but they said the same thing about Iggy, Pool, Mo, and DJ Wilson and those guys were all drafted. Hell, there was a segment saying that Franz Wagner needed to come back.
February 11th, 2022 at 11:50 AM ^
respectful disagreement, at least from me. all of those guys were far further along in their development and, in my opinion, were all better athletes and defenders than caleb. i wish him the best and if that's the NBA after this year i hope he nails it. but at this point that seems to be unlikely.
February 11th, 2022 at 12:46 PM ^
For the record, I am not saying Houstan is more or as ready as those guys. I am just saying that according to many Michigan fans those guys "weren't ready" yet they were all drafted in the 1st round (except Iggy). I agree that he could benefit from returning but I also admit I(we) know nothing.