B1G: Which Teams are Better, Worse and the Same as Expected?

I think Penn State is certainly better than expected thusfar. They did start out 0-5 last year, granted with a lot of bad luck, but before the season I wasn't buying the top 10 hype. I guess I was wrong, but there is still a lot of time to tell.

The rest I agree with. Last week I probably would have put Rutgers in the "Better than expected" category. We will see how they fare against Sparty. 

With losing a top NFL pick at QB, and a suspect defense heading into the season - I would say Ohio State is more "as expected".  Certainly debatable.

With Nebraska - it is well established that Scott Frost is an asshat, and that Nebraska likely to continue to beat themselves.  So I guess their usually shitty to mediocre start would be considered as expected.  And as expected - we are going to bury them in their own Lincoln cornfield on Saturday.  No fucking mercy for these cow tipping assholes!!!

Better Than Expected

Michigan - for obvious reasons

MSU - Like it or not, Tucker has MSU absolutely trending in the right direction. Their best wins don't look quite as good anymore, but wins are wins and they are certainly better than what they were last year. Certainly better than I expected them to be this year. 

Iowa - This is not a playoff contender. Not with that offense. They're just not. But a Big Ten and NY6 contender? Absolutely. Great defense and very opportunistic with how many turnovers they're generating. 

Rutgers - Yes they are 3-2, but you can't tell me after what they did in Ann Arbor that they're not moving in the right direction, even after what happened against OSU. Schiano is going to make Rutgers into an enormous pain in the ass in the coming years. They will start competing with and occasionally knocking off teams in the upper tier of the conference. 

PSU - I certainly didn't peg them as being undefeated at this point. They still have a lot to prove when they go to Columbus in a few weeks, and there is nothing about what I've seen from them that I look at and say "How in the hell is Michigan going to beat that?," but for how bad they were last year, they've turned a corner this year and then some. If they had OSU at home, I'd probably peg them as being the conference favorites right now. 

Worse Than Expected

OSU - I would say OSU is worse than expected for now. The defense looked atrocious the first few weeks of the season and it may still not be very good, but I'm too used to them rounding to form by November and being the death machine they always turn into being. Still very much alive in the CFP race, probably the frontrunner in the Big Ten. PSU has to go to Columbus, MSU is probably several years away from this type of game being winnable for them, and as much as Michigan has improved, until I see them do it I can't predict Michigan to win that game. 

Wisconsin - Their three losses are to top-10 teams so that caveat should apply, but at a school like Wisconsin where they routinely churn out top-tier offensive lines and create All American RBs out of three star thin air, its remarkable how awful that offense is. Especially with a five star caliber QB. 

Indiana - Looks like they took their nosedive off the ugly tree and have hit every branch coming back down. I still fully expect Michigan's game against them to be stupid. 

Northwestern - this seems like a pattern for Northwestern. One very good year and making the BTCG, the next year falling off a cliff in nearly every category, and then the cycle starts all over again. But my god are they bad this year. 

Minnesota - A true Jekyll and Hyde team. Losing Ibrahim couldn't have possibly helped, though. 

Nebraska - They are here just by virtue of losing to Illinois. That should never have happened. 

About The Same

Maryland - Same old Maryland. Win a big OOC game to start off with, look sleek, shiny and trending up with a good looking offense, and then come crashing back to Earth by week 4-5. 

Purdue - I don't pay enough attention to Purdue to know how good they should be right now, but being 3-2 at this juncture sounds about right. 

Illinois - new coach, still an awful team but they're right where I'd expect them to be at this point in time, if not maybe slightly better. 

I would argue that both PSU and Nebraska are better than expected.  Nebraska's record does not reflect it but they definitely outplayed a good MSU team and hung tough with OK.  

Also, OSU is worse but I think they are on track to be in line with expectations soon.  That one loss does not really hurt them much if they continue to win.

I would argue Rutgers and Penn State are better than expected.  I think Nebraska is way better than we realize even though the record is not great.  The loss to Illinois is bad but their defense is pretty good and their offense is getting on track.  I'm terrified of them this week.  They will upset someone this season.

OK my take...

BETTER THAN EXPECTED

Michigan - The vast majority of the board was/is wallowing in BPONE predicting 6-6/7-5 with a dysfunctional offense and assignment blown defense.  So far, the exact opposite is happening.  only 1 TO, averaging only 5 penalties per game (tied for 23rd lowest) and an offense that has a solid foundation identity (still 7th overall in rushing).  Defensively, I laugh when a color commentator state that our D is "more aggressive", that simply is not true.  What is true is the multiple schemes they use and as pointed out today in the post, MacDonald is putting his best players in positions to impact the game (Hutch and Hill in space shutting down a large portion of the field)

Michigan State - I put them here more because of the "eye test".  Their signature win (@ Miami) is not looking so good right now, but they do look organized, Walker is a legit RB, and Thorne to Reed chemistry is legit.  They were out played by Nebraska which does put a cap on their potential, but they are certainly not a tire fire.  They only have us and OSU left on their schedule, IU is done with Penix out and Rutgers/Purdue/ and Maryland leave something to be desired.  They could still pull a "Sparty NO!!!' game because their Defense is not particularly good (103 overall in yards/game) and wind up 9-3

Iowa - Like NW, Iowa seems to cycle through like this.  They are a good team, but I believe they are benefitting from what is turning into a very soft schedule.  IU is no where the same team as last year, ISU is overrated, Minny lost their RB, and we have seen Wisconsin.  Right now, Iowa can only lose in the regular season by beating themselves.  IF they beat PSU this weekend, they could very well go undefeated.  That being said, their defense is very good, but their mediocre offense will get them when they play a tough match up in the BIG Championship game / Bowl game.

(PS - I'm fine with this because when Michigan meets them in the BIG Championship, it will be marked down as a Top 5 win......even though I don't believe they are..... Yes, I am saying that we have a shot at the East title)

SAME AS EXPECTED

Ohio State - I put them here because they knew they were breaking in a new QB and the defense does not have the same star power it has had in the past.  With that being stated, this is relative to expectations, so yes this is still a legit Top 10 team (more so than Iowa)

Penn State - Same as OSU in terms of expectations, this is a good team (not top 5 more like the preseason ranking of 19th).  They (like us) are benefitting from a weaker Wisconsin team and they did beat an OK Auburn team....at home...during a White Out where I believe they have a ridiculous winning percentage.  But they have @Iowa, @OSU, us, and @MSU remaining on their schedule.  There are a couple of losses in there.

Nebraska - They are not a tire fire and if they can mange to not shoot themselves in the foot (Why....WHY....WHY to Sparty!!!) they could go to a bowl game.  They do have us, @OSU, and Iowa left on the schedule so a 6-6 record seems to be forecast for them.  (Must be kicking themselves for the Illini and Sparty game.....) but this is what average teams do.  Not able to dominate and make plays to finish a game.

Rutgers - I actually want to put them in the 'Better Than Expected' category because they are Rutger.  But after OSU dismantled them (and we just oversimplified our game plan for them), they have to be here for now.  Their remaining schedule is actually lining up for the nicely, IF they can beat MSU, they have @NW, @Illini, Wisconsin, @IU and Maryland still on the schedule all winnable games (but also very losable cause they have holes too).  Their only challenging game after this weekend is @PSU.  Could Rutgers actually make it to a bowl game this year????  Not out of the realm of possibility.

Purdue - They are what they are.  A middling BIG West team that will win some and lose some.  Not much else to say

Illinois - No one expects them to be good, but they did get their one 'surprise' win (even though it was to a middling BIG West team)

Maryland - They are what they are.  Picking up 1 good OCC win (WVU) and clubbing the others, but when it comes time to play with the better competition...... ummm no.....

WORSE THEN EXPECTED

Wisconsin - This is the one that surprises me the most.  Not because they are less than a vintage Wisconsin team, but just how much they have / will fall.  Even in a middling BIG WEST, this team is ripe for 1-2 more 'upsets'.  Best case? 7-5....Worst case..... ummmmm.  They have Iowa still on the schedule (4th loss) and to expect this team to run the table outside of Iowa is unrealistic.....  Mertz gets too much blame for this.  Wisconsin can't run the ball like they use too and as noted repeatedly, every QB they have had (outside of Wilson) can not impact/win a game for them.

Indiana and Minnesota - This is getting too long so I am going to combine these too.  While IU preseason expectations were too high, both of these teams have/will suffer because of critical injuries to their star players..... Both programs lack depth to handle this (I'll admit that any program outside the Pantheon of programs - Alabama, Georgia, OSU have relatively the same issue, but more so for middling programs).  

Northwestern - Like Iowa but their cycles are more extreme.  This years version of NW is REALLY bad.  That defense is simply not good by any measure

PSU, Rutgers, and Neb should be in the better than expected.

Maryland should be in the same as expected. They showed signs of the same old Maryland against ILL and achieved true from against Iowa.

Too many people thought Michigan was garbage after the fluke that was last year. Michigan was undervalued for their talent level and history under JH. He hasn't won fewer than 8 games so the debate about bowl eligibility was way overblown. 

MSU got a lot of transfers in and that's a quick way to get better. Not convinced they are good, but they are much improved. 

Indiana got too much credit for being ~good last year. Everyone knew Penix would get hurt at some point and they wouldn't be any good without him. 

Frost was on the hot seat, so no one expected much of Nebraska. 

Everyone said the same things about Wisconsin, Mertz was horrible outside of 1 game and they don't have any special skill position guys, especially at running back. Despite this, people still thought they would be good.  Same story with OSU...Great offense, a LOT of questions in the secondary, linebackers that have been poorly coached for years and no "DUDE" on the DL that can change a game. Yes still...they were given the benefit of the doubt.

Michigan has gotten fortunate though as far as the schedule goes.  This is certainly a season I'd like to have seen the OSU game earlier in the year.  Penix is out which changes the Indiana game. Mertz is awful, helped vs Wisconsin. We finally don't have to play Iowa. Northwestern is TRASH. Maryland just lost a starting receiver for the year.  Reasonable floor for this team is 10-2 right now. 

Honestly, OSU killed Rutger in a way that we should have but didn't. And they did it on the road.

They definitely had issues to start the year. But, I would say at this point that they are about the same as the world expected. I still think we beat them, but the earlier post that thought they were delusional to be talking title chances isn't exactly correct. It's a weird year. We're not delusional to think that we could do it either. I think it just highlights how crazy this extended run has been for them that one loss makes them "worse than the world expected."

THIS FEELS LIKE 1997 TO ME. GO BLUE!

Suspect when all is said and done, unfortunately, anOSU will be about what everyone expected. 

I'd put Nebraska and Rutgers in 'better' and Maryland in 'same'. Hard to be better when you're losing 51-14 to Iowa at home.

NW is as bad as I expected; they went from the most-experienced team in the country to one of the least, plus they replaced their great DC with someone who isn't proven at that level.  Not a surprise.

MSU is playing better than I expected but I also think they've gotten a bit of good fortune in their toughest games.  Like, Miami should have carved them up all day and then King got hurt midway through that contest.  Nebraska outplayed them and would have won had they just kicked like a normal team.  Walker is a pretty good back but he's come back to earth a bit, but they have some playmakers at receivers and their run defense is solid.  They're probably a bit ahead of schedule but I also don't know if you can keep turning over your roster like they do and always pull it out.  They're recruiting...fine but they've taken, I think, 2 top-300 defensive players in 2 years and a couple of the other athlete-type guys may be in search of a position.  I do wonder if they become more offense-first under Tucker, which would be a departure.

Iowa is averaging over 2 TOs in their favor a game this year; that seems incredibly unlikely to continue.  They're probably still the class of the West but it's a team that will likely come back to earth a bit.

Maryland is exactly as good as I thought they'd be - they have some offensive firepower but it's inconsistent and they seem poorly coached overall.  There's a reason Locksley took 7 years to break double-digit wins for his career as an HC.

Rutgers and Nebraska are better than I expected, even though I think Frost is an overrated coach and the ceiling on the Cornhuskers is "pretty good for the West".  Rutgers is never going to be better than an above-average P5 team, but that's pretty good for them and they absolutely have an identity under Schiano.