Question for MGoCoaches: Why doesn't the offense run more 11 personnel?
After reflecting on Saturday's game, and the season as a whole, I got to thinking of next year and how would this offense use it's best players to get them on the field more. My immediate thought was how to keep DPJ, Nico, and Tarik on the field as much as possible. Seems like 11 personnel would solve that.
Looking at the numbers from 2017, 11 personnel was used on average 58% of the time in the NFL, an increase of 20% over the past 10 years. The Rams were highest at 80%.
Glancing at the UFR's and giving the eyeball test, it seems Michigan used 11 personnel roughly 30-40% of the time, and that's a safe assumption on the high end.
I'm wondering if any MGoCoaches out there have opinions of why the offense doesn't use this personnel grouping as much or if they think it would help or hurt the offense moving forward.
December 31st, 2018 at 2:07 PM ^
Great post--and of course, how bout that sleepover at Nordin's house?
Yet another wasted scholarship
December 31st, 2018 at 2:25 PM ^
Eh, I have no beef about that. Nordin was the number 1 kicker in the country, M needed a kicker, that was as good a get as you can do with the info you have.
That he seems to have some mental barriers to his game (any hopefully for him, he figures that out) is just an unfortunate instance of #collegekickers. I imagine he transfers anyway so not sure it'll be a waste of scholly.
December 31st, 2018 at 4:37 PM ^
You could probably bet Fort Know that no one thought Quinn Nordin was going to be this bad when he was being recruited. He was the #1 kicker in high school. And the jury is still out on Quinn Nordin. We may yet see him turn it around. We may yet see him kick a 60 yarder in a college game.
December 31st, 2018 at 2:22 PM ^
Well said. The fact that more coaches elect to hand the ball off 5 yards in the back field to pick up 1 yard is ridiculous
December 31st, 2018 at 2:37 PM ^
Our scheme and philosophy is not the problem.
The person calling the plays could be improved.
Our line was dominated in our three losses. Not lost the battle, but dominated. That has to improve and is the biggest reason why our struggles in our losses.
For whatever reason our TE's regressed.
Simply changing to a spread offense is not the answer.
December 31st, 2018 at 3:09 PM ^
Yes, the person calling the plays is also the problem but the scheme and the philosophy lead us to think we can just tell a team we're going to run and think we can run.
And 1) the line was dominated in large part because M hasn't recruited enough OL in the past three years, which is a philosophy problem (decided we needed a bunch of TEs who either aren't playmakers or who sat the bench) and 2) a spread can hide a lot of your problems on the line.
That's why teams that can't get NFL O linemen can be very successful with a spread. Even teams like Bama run spread now! It is simply far easier to be successful with a spread when you have college QBs (not great decision makers, and not super accurate arms, generally)
We run a dead, ineffective offense that has only worked for Harbaugh when he had a potential Hall of Fame QB: Andrew Luck. Until the next Andrew Luck walks through the door, keep trying to justify running this offense.
December 31st, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^
Why stop at 11? Let's go with 12 or 14—we could use the extra guys on the field.
December 31st, 2018 at 11:40 AM ^
220, 221 whatever it takes.
December 31st, 2018 at 11:58 AM ^
Nice Mr. Mom reference.
December 31st, 2018 at 4:25 PM ^
"You want a beer?"
"It's seven o'clock in the morning!"
"Scotch?"
December 31st, 2018 at 12:01 PM ^
"We were never in aisle 7!"
December 31st, 2018 at 11:16 AM ^
good question OP. Follow up questions:
1. Why do we so rarely see Black/DPJ/Nico and so often see Martin/Perry/Bell, and once famously McCurry in place of one or 2 of those 3 when do have 11 personnel?
2. Why was Black blocking on screens to Perry in the bowl (and whiffing) instead of Perry blocking on screens to Black? One is clearly a better blocker and the other is clearly superior with the ball in his hand.
Hot take connected to this topic:
I’m sure I’m not the only one but hindsight on this season it appears to my very uneducated and inexperienced eye, that the best use of talent would have been Black/Nico outside (yes of course when he was healthy. I know) with DPJ and Evans in the slots and Higdon at RB. Gentry/Eubanks rotating at receiving TE with Mason as blocking guy on the arc reads. Mason might be over-rated but he cannot possibly be a worse blocker than McKeon. I just can’t see why McKeon should play if it means taking DPJ/Evans/Mason off the field because he can’t be the receiving or blocking (Mason) threat those options produce.
December 31st, 2018 at 1:33 PM ^
I have some ideas on #1, some sound reasoning and some debatable:
- After Tarik went down, DPJ was mostly kept on the outside and they largely stuck with that after Tarik came back
- Lack of depth at WR; you're going to play 5-6 guys at receiver over the course of a game and the TEs were largely eating Grant Perry, Oliver Martin, Ronnie Bell snaps
- Tackles still both struggle in pass pro vs good edge guys and two TEs offers more help there (here's where a slot can arguably have a bigger impact by getting open quickly and spreading things out)
I'd like to see them play their top WRs more and next year the roster is more 11 friendly regardless of how they manage snaps on the outside. Actually WR depth + actual slots + good QB in year two + a knock on wood the big three WRs stay healthy.
Harbaugh does always adjust scheme to personnel and the personnel dictate more 3 WR sets and throwing. How much he adjusts is the big question.
December 31st, 2018 at 2:15 PM ^
I do think they kept TEs in the game to help with pass blocking. As we saw in the Peach Bowl, once Michigan was one dimensional, Florida's DEs kept getting into the pocket when OTs weren't getting much help. Our line was improved this year, but a long way to go.
Hopefully, with another year of Warriner and the development of Mayfield, we won't need to provide so much OT help in pass pro. Then, you can do more 3 and 4 wide stuff.
While watching the Clemson-ND game, I couldn't help but notice Clemson using 5 guys to block NDs 4 and they created nice clean pockets for Lawrence. Shea would have loved that.
December 31st, 2018 at 2:22 PM ^
Owen,
I respectfully disagree with your second bullet point. The TEs were not largely eating Perry/Martin/Bell snaps. The TEs + Perry/Martin/Bell were combined keeping 1 or 2 of DPJ/Black/Nico off the field. I recall (so this admittedly anecdotal) many snaps where Perry or Martin were on the field with one of McKeon/Gentry/Eubanks. If you want to give Black/DPJ/Nico a breather then sure that will happen some but I recall it being the dominant formation and if anything Black/DPJ/Nico were the far less used group.
Beyond that, what game would you say Tarik Black really could have used a rest in? I think he needed many more snaps than he played and would still have room for the occasional rest.
December 31st, 2018 at 3:20 PM ^
I would have liked to have seen more of all three of the guys we're all talking about here FWIW, I just think it was more of a WR depth/substitution patten thing.
We saw a lot of 2 TE 2 WR sets. The first half of the season (to me) that means any time Nico/DPJ are on the sideline in those sets it was WR substitution-related not TEs eating their snaps since those two are by far better than the other WRs who were healthy.
The second half of the season saw more of the same. I don't know why but it seemed like they were sticking with the thinking from the first half. Black never really got going, but agree they should have dedicated more gameplan to getting him going.
December 31st, 2018 at 2:21 PM ^
Agreed with your points and would broadly expand it to the substitution patterns make zero sense to me and seem at odds with almost every other game/team I see. It seems like we substitute out pretty much every skill player multiple times per possession which is extraordinary. A team like Clemson ran with pretty much the same personnel for an entire drive, with may the odd sub here and there, yet we rarely run two plays in a row without taking out DPJ or switching Evans for Wilson.
It really hit home the first possession of the OSU game. Higdon started out with a strong 8 yard run to start the drive and was substituted immediately for Evans. Makes no sense. Of course it happened during the Florida game too. Do we really need to see three RBs playing during the course of an 8 play drive?
December 31st, 2018 at 11:16 AM ^
I'm not as knowledgeable as many of the posters here, but it seems like the coaches still don't trust the offensive line and use multiple tight ends to help the tackles.
Of course this condenses almost all players into the box making it difficult to run, and gives Patterson very few options to throw the ball, so would it really be much worse to put the best offensive weapons out there at the same time?
December 31st, 2018 at 12:16 PM ^
Then you use the quick/screen game to mitigate the deficiencies of the OL. But guess what, how many screens, slants and other quick routes does Michigan run? Not many. The offensive coaching is mind boggling about 85% of the time. Where are the trick plays and draws to keep the D off balanced?
It makes me sick posting all this stuff with a coach who has been to a super bowl.
December 31st, 2018 at 1:37 PM ^
Jim isn’t ever going to trust OL. He really isn’t ever going to trust his team. It’s in his make up not to trust. He is the type of guy who feels him and only him can get things done. It’s why he was so successful as a QB and why he had the gunslinger mentality. Now that he can’t control that, he wants to control something. So he controls tempo and the running game. Doesn’t allow QB loose.
For crying out loud guy warms up before the game. It’s always been weird but for some reason accepted
December 31st, 2018 at 11:17 AM ^
I think the thing that gets forgotten when everyone is screaming “open it up!” and “throw every down!” is that our pass protection is still a work in progress. We were far more effective this year when we ran the ball and controlled the clock and we saw some disastrous results when going pass heavy.
December 31st, 2018 at 11:21 AM ^
What game were you watching?
I recall us scoring a TD with relative ease against OSU going pass heavy.
I also recall Nico and DPJ making crazy contested catches all game against Florida. Tarik almost snagged one too himself.
Naturally the coaches go away from what works would prefer to smack Evans into a 8-9 man box tho on telegraphed run plays.
December 31st, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^
Let’s look at Florida. 5 sacks and 2 costly picks when we dropped back to pass. We couldn’t block them.
December 31st, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
One pick was a bad underthrow by Shea. The other was a somewhat unlucky deflection on a pass to a wide open receiver.
December 31st, 2018 at 11:46 AM ^
We also didn’t start really throwing the ball until the game was effectively over. A lot easier to tee off on the quarterback when you know a pass is coming.
We have zero data on what our pass protection would look like with a game plan of passing to open up the run game, because we’ve never tried it.
December 31st, 2018 at 11:54 AM ^
That happens when you have bad pass protection and no quick strike short/intermediate passing game. One of those you can’t fix overnight. The other should have been fixed a year ago.
December 31st, 2018 at 12:04 PM ^
Even with some hiccups in the throw game, it still was the right choice against UF, as it was against OSU. The run game was being overplayed by both, and Michigan chose to keep delivering body blows anyway.
If M went full USC 2006 Rose Bowl and just abandoned the run completely, I believe they could have won either game. On the other hand, playing offense the way they did ruled out any hope of quick scoring, and thus ensured a loss once they were down double digits.
December 31st, 2018 at 11:22 AM ^
UM just played its 13th game. The pass protection excuse thing is getting old.
December 31st, 2018 at 2:19 PM ^
Have to agree here. If pass protection is bad, you know well before the 13th game and can plan around it.
And "planning around suspect pass pro" does NOT mean "run Chris Evans straight at the nearest linebacker more"
Our pass pro was not that bad, either. We called shitty plays because our OC and head coach wanted to call shitty plays.
December 31st, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
We also seemed to keep running long-developing routes even when it was obvious Florida was blitzing. So few screens or quick outs in the 2nd half. Maybe that's on Shea to check out of those plays, but given the whole season I suspect that those were the plays.
December 31st, 2018 at 11:51 AM ^
I was thinking about this the other night too. Don't know if its just selective memory or what, but it feels like most of the pass plays to Nico/Black/DPJ are long passes to the sideline. I rarely remember Michigan throwing quick passes, slants, or anything over the middle to those guys.
DPJ is a 4.4 40 guy, yet they almost never try and get him the ball quickly in space other than a jet sweep or something. You don't need amazing pass pro if you're getting rid of the ball on a quick pass in 2s or less.
December 31st, 2018 at 11:58 AM ^
You nailed it. The answer to “not great pass pro” (it’s not bad) isn’t “run 40 times into a stacked box”, it’s “misdirection and quick one read pass plays”.
December 31st, 2018 at 12:47 PM ^
We ran the ball 20 times if you exclude Shea’s 10 carries, 5 of which were passing plays (sacks.) But don’t let the facts get in the way of your faulty narrative.
December 31st, 2018 at 1:14 PM ^
In which game. That kinda matters? Eh.
December 31st, 2018 at 1:31 PM ^
If you are still talking about OSU, get over it. We did manage to grind out 28 first downs against them. With any kind of competent defense we win that game.
December 31st, 2018 at 1:33 PM ^
I asked you a question. Kick rocks if you don't want to answer.
December 31st, 2018 at 1:36 PM ^
I am talking about the game where we scored 15 points. Apparently, you are complaining about only scoring 39 points in the horseshoe. I am glad I don’t share your distorted view of college football. Pound sand.
December 31st, 2018 at 2:49 PM ^
7 of those points were gifted by OSU. The other 14 came in garbage time when OSU let the peddle off the gas. Kick rocks.
December 31st, 2018 at 2:43 PM ^
Dude, seriously? We had 19 points through the first three quarters of the game and scored the last 20 in the fourth quarter when the game was effectively over. Plus 7 of first 19 points came from an OSU fumble inside their own 10 yd line, not a sustained drive. The offense was shitty when it counted against OSU and pointing to 39 pts doesn't change that
December 31st, 2018 at 12:05 PM ^
If it's selective memory then I have it too. There seems to be little in the way of a short / intermediate pass game. Which is fucking stupid when we have capable and fast WR's that should be able to pick up significant YAC. If we're not going to use them, just recruit TE's and FB's and send the WR's to a school where they can at least get some decent film for the NFL.
Also, why does Shea have to drop back so damn far on every pass play? Haskins would take two or three steps, fire a quick pass over the middle, and boom, first down (and a lot more sometimes).
December 31st, 2018 at 12:23 PM ^
That was one of the criticisms from national CFB people during the OSU game that drove me nuts. The whole "they just have better athletes" argument, which isn't entirely true. They do have the athletes, they just don't use them well enough.
December 31st, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^
Chris Evans out the backfield 1 on 1 vs a lb?
December 31st, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^
My pet theory: it's the NFL disease brought in by Harbaugh and Hamilton. If the fear is the opposing defense is just like the lightning fast defenses in the NFL, then short over-the-middle passes are risky because NFL linebackers and safeties are really good closing on the ball, and there's a risk of pick-6's. Unless you have a QB that's NFL savvy, then those things won't work. Because NFL.
Of course most college defenses don't have 11 NFL-caliber players.
Also ... did Haskins or Franks go under center even once in those games? Or was it 100% shotgun formation? Is there any real benefit to under center / drop-back QB play in the college game?
December 31st, 2018 at 1:38 PM ^
The sad thing is, the NFL isn't even as dumb as this anymore. Manning and Brady have run shotgun spreads for years. Now look at what the Rams and Chiefs are doing with spread offenses and RPOs. The Eagles won the super bowl last year that way too.
The NFL barely uses FBs anymore, and the primary use of "TEs" on good offensive teams isn't even to block much but to run routes and even line up wide.
December 31st, 2018 at 2:24 PM ^
It isn't up to Shea how many steps he takes, that's driven by the route concepts they're running. OSU runs more three step drops.
December 31st, 2018 at 3:55 PM ^
There were at least two screens to DPJ that each went for about 5 yards (that I recall of the top of my head)
December 31st, 2018 at 12:18 PM ^
I'm not trying to come off as screaming to open it up. I get the crowd that says "extra guys in to block". That's fine, leave the RB and TE in to block and have DPJ/Nico/Tarik run the routes.
December 31st, 2018 at 1:28 PM ^
When you spread it out, you don't need a ton of extra guys to block because the defense has to spread out and cover routes. It's still 5 OL to 4 DL with a RB in there. Spread it out to get guys away from the box.
December 31st, 2018 at 3:36 PM ^
This is not the way to interpret the data nor is it accurate.
We were successful running the ball against bad defenses. So of course that worked: those defenses were terrible. Whoopee.
In the three losses, we tried to run the ball and were very much NOT successful, because the way we run the ball doesn't work well against good teams.
Then when we went "pass heavy", there weren't disastrous results.
All of M's most successful drives against ND were pass heavy. The RBs and run game was ineffective. Same thing against OSU and UF: pass game was much more effective.
Even still, this isn't at all a question of run vs. pass. It's an argument to spread it out to make both running and passing easier. Did you watch Oklahoma this year? They were devastating on the ground. OSU in any year with JT Barrett? Running team.
That's the whole point, spread it out, get defenders out of the box and force the defense to cover more guys and it's then 1) easier to run (remember how easy it was for UF to just spread 5 guys out and let Franks go at a single safety?) and 2) harder for the defense to match up with all the WRs and more likely one is open.
December 31st, 2018 at 11:22 AM ^
Body blows