DCGrad

December 14th, 2018 at 9:29 AM ^

Sometimes I think Bama takes players just so other teams don't get them.  They can process out the ones who don't make it and keep taking all the 5 stars leaving only the burnouts for transfers after losing a couple years of development.

JPC

December 14th, 2018 at 9:47 AM ^

I think they absolutely do that and possibly even to people Michigan want more so than other teams (since we recruit a similar style of player). Between Georgia, LSU, and Alabama, there aren't too many super elite "pro-style" recruits floating around. 

Michigan clearly knows talent, identifies it early, develops a nice relationship, and then Alabama swoops in. 

ak47

December 14th, 2018 at 9:29 AM ^

Its not happening, there is no evidence that Dax is unhappy with his decision. It caught people so off guard nobody knows how to react but every "there is still a chance" is couched that nobody has actually spoken to Dax and his family. Its all wishful thinking.

blueinbeantown

December 14th, 2018 at 10:13 AM ^

Converting to OU for the playoff!!!  Bama loses.  Tua goes into witness protection, afraid of seeing "daddy dearest" after the game.  Takes me back to SB 42, QB of the overwhelming favorite is in a boot leading up to the game.  Miracle catch on the helmet.  Next WR is so open that even Eli can't miss and the perfect season goes down the drain.  

Rabbit21

December 14th, 2018 at 9:50 AM ^

Not a chance.  Alabama will take all the high end talent they can and then sort it out.  We’re trapped in football hell, let’s just enjoy the warm.

JPC

December 14th, 2018 at 11:10 AM ^

We pretty clearly weren't the better team. We all thought we were, and it seems like the coaches got caught up in it too. OSU played down all year and then turned it up when they needed to. Michigan "body blowed" everyone all year and walked into the game beat up and sluggish. 

OSU was on another level from Michigan this year. We simply can't beat the shit out of teams all season without getting worn out, given our limited depth of really solid players. 

Rabbit21

December 14th, 2018 at 1:42 PM ^

Beyond WD's beyond ironic admonition to not be so dramatic, let me go ahead and explain my point better as I wasn't referring to Michigan specifically.

Alabama is going to sign all the high end talent they can, it's a rational decision for them.

Given the value proposition Alabama provides on the field, it's a rational position for any football recruit to take the Alabama offer when the opportunity presents itself.

Alabama has been building to insane death star level for years now and given their current recruiting class it's only getting worse.

EVERYONE not an Alabama fan is trapped in football hell until this thing plays out as Alabama is crazy dominant and it is making college football worse as the big prize until further notice is basically the right to get murdered by Bama on national TV.  

As far as Michigan, I am very happy that Michigan wins the games they're suppossed to and are performing extremely consistently.  This is something to be grateful for.  At the same time, 62-39 was beyond sobering and it does color perceptions of the program.  Losing the Peach Bowl is going to make it worse.

MGoStrength

December 14th, 2018 at 9:53 AM ^

I could see Battle not wanting to commit because of Hill, but with Hill being the higher ranked guy are more sought after I doubt Hill would be afraid of committing because of Battle.  It can't hurt, but it would be better if it was the other way around.

lilpenny1316

December 14th, 2018 at 10:14 AM ^

Wasn't Alabama the undisputed king of oversigning?  They will take all three and someone will get a firm handshake next month.

For those LOL'ing at OSU, don't underestimate their ability to snake oil a top safety commit from someone else.

NFG

December 14th, 2018 at 10:20 AM ^

The only thing that this means is that I'll be getting shit faced tonight, and yet again my wife will at me from across the room with a face of regret.

TurnerandBlue

December 14th, 2018 at 10:23 AM ^

It is over and he ain't coming. 

This class is the beginning of the end for JH. 

Last year's dud and this year's dud means that the time bomb is ticking.  Trying to beat OSU with a 2 deep from 2 top 5-6 classes couldn't do it.  Why do we think a 2 deep made up of class in the 20s? 

Thank god Beilein is a great coach!

JPC

December 14th, 2018 at 11:16 AM ^

This class is much better than last year and has a ton of guys who can plug some obvious holes in the team. 

Our recruiting doesn't suck because Harbaugh sucks. Our recruiting sucks because Pep and our former WR coach are both absolutely shitty recruiters.

We have two offensive coaches in the top 50 of recruiters in our conference - that's very bad. One of them is Warinner, and he's not a great recruiter. If we add a WR coach who isn't total shit at recruiting, it's going to be a huge boon for next year's class. If we manage to get rid of Pep and find someone who's a good play caller AND recruiter, it's going to be a boon on the field and for next year's class.

The team has some obvious issues, and I think Harbaugh can fix them.  

m_go_T

December 14th, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^

Team A:

2013 #15 ranking; 2014 #17 ranking; 2015 #9 ranking; 2016 #11 ranking; 2017 #16 ranking; 2017 #8 ranking

Team B: 

2013 #4 ranking; 2014 #20 ranking; 2015 #37 ranking; 2016 #8 ranking; 2017 #5 ranking; 2018 #22 ranking

One team has been to the playoffs the past 4 years and won a national championship in 2016, the other has come close to the playoffs twice but has failed each time. 

Point is, recruiting is important but its not like you need to finish in the top five every year to make it to the playoffs every year.  We are close, our recruiting is good enough, and believe it or not, we've made progress towards our goals every year, with an expected step back in 2017. We bounced back this year despite having our own fanbase turn on the team.  

4th and Go For It

December 14th, 2018 at 10:25 AM ^

This would not be an insignificant development, even if it has no bearing on Dax and his commitment or lack thereof to Michigan. No Urban may yet actually cause a slight downturn in OSU recruiting here. Wait and see, still, but it's been a strange year for them this year recruiting wise and it could continue to trend down.

OSU has had a decided advantage in recruiting the last decade. We've tightened the gap a bit but as some incredibly annoying posters on this board will be quick to remind you, we're not on the same level.  But a slight downward trend and that gap becomes very narrow indeed with or without the Dax Hill's of the world.

There may be a window of opportunity here to gain some ground and finish strong this year and next with Urban gone. If their new coach should have an less-than-Urban  2 or even 3 loss season and or somehow god forbid lose to Michigan, the bloom will come off the rose pretty quickly and OSU will not recruit at near-Alabama levels consistently anymore. 

Hopefully we're able to put quality seasons and recruiting classes in the meantime and OSU takes a small step backwards here. Doesn't help us not to get mauled by Bama should we get past OSU but hell, I'll take it right now.

4th and Go For It

December 14th, 2018 at 11:19 AM ^

Because we were inconsistent at best and flat out bad at times in recruiting pre-Harbaugh. In 2015 we had the 37th ranked class in country (small class). Then in 2016 they were 4th and we were 8th overall. In 2017 they were 2 and we were 5th overall. Last year wasn’t great as we were 20 spots worse than them. This year we are currently 11tg and they are 9th. The gap is closing. Doesn’t mean it’s close yet. A step backwards for them means they are top 10 ish each year instead of top 5 ish. There’s a big disparity there. We can recruit top 10ish.   We can’t recruit top 5ish right now consistently. We were up and down with good and bad classes with Hoke. We had good and bad classes under RichRod. Consistently will level the field. 

JPC

December 14th, 2018 at 11:25 AM ^

One issue with your analysis is that Michigan's classes tend to get overvalued since they're big. OSU has a small class ranked 9th and we have a big class ranked 11th. If you take our top X players versus their top X players, then you start to see the disparity. 

Ultimately it doesn't matter though. We could have had 4 number 5 classes in a row, and we probably still would have lost to them this year. This loss was totally on the coaches. OSU played chess, and Michigan ate boogers. 

4th and Go For It

December 14th, 2018 at 11:44 AM ^

I'm not sure that's accurate to be fair but I didn't look at the individuals for each class. These are 247's numbers. 

2011:  OSU - 6th (25 Commits), UM  - 30th (20 Commits)

2012:  OSU - 5th (25 Commits), UM  - 6th (25 Commits)

2013:  OSU - 2nd (24 Commits), UM - 4th (27 Commits)

2014:  OSU - 3rd (25 Commits), UM - 20th (16 Commits)

2015:  OSU - 7th (26 Commits), UM - 37th (14 Commits)

2016:  OSU - 4th (25 Commits), UM - 8th (28 Commits)

2017: OSU - 2nd (21 Commits), UM - 5th (30 Commits)

2018: OSU - 2nd (26 Commits), UM - 20th (19 Commits)

Their worst class in the last 8 years was 7th overall and they've had a top 3 class 4 times in those 8 years.  We've had zero top 3 classes and as many at 20th or worse as we've had top 10.  My point is a slight backstep for them would be low end of top 10. We can get there if we can get more consistent. Asking us to get to consistent top 5 right now seems like a big reach.

JPC

December 14th, 2018 at 11:49 AM ^

You're right, thanks for pointing that out. I guess I was fixated on 2016 and especially 2017. I guess we will have to see how it goes in the future since 2015 was anomalous as Harbaugh's first class and 2018 was... weird.

Right now Michigan has 23 commits and OSU has 16, so it's shaping up to be another "Michigan larger" year.  

 

4th and Go For It

December 14th, 2018 at 11:56 AM ^

overall class rank and individual recruit ranks both make an impact, you're not wrong. In my head I always think we are always kinda top 15 ish but we really have been up and down in both areas. The talent disparity is worse than I thought i was from memory. That said I dont think we need to be at Alabama levels - just consistently in and around a top 10 class every year.  That's attainable.

JPC

December 14th, 2018 at 12:10 PM ^

This last OSU game really took the shine of this coaching staff for me. I always thought of Harbaugh as a "get more out of less" kind of coach, which would make top 10 classes more than good enough. However, that OSU game stunk so badly, we would have had to be far superior to OSU at every position in order to win it. 

I really hope it's a wake-call to the staff because you can't put that loss on the players. 

TurnerandBlue

December 14th, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^

This right here.

This is the exact reason we won't be beating OSU for a loooooong time.  That means, we won't be winning the B1G for just as long.  It is going to be 20-25 years before Michigan might win a conference title.  

For a school like Michigan, with all its advantages and all the money going to JH and the assistants, it's mind boggling how this is the reality we find ourselves in.  The guy is good, but it isn't great.  And it he isn't elite.  And he and his staff clearly can't recruit like a top 3 coach in the country either.  

This is going to be a long next decade.

Hackett 4 President

December 14th, 2018 at 11:49 AM ^

Talk about an overreaction dude. "It is going to be 20-25 years before Michigan might win a conference title."

Holy shit man what are we going to do for the next two decades? Since you are so good at foresight, please enlighten us on what investments/stocks will be valuable two decades from now.

Maybe take a break from things since this is so dreary to you.

 

TurnerandBlue

December 14th, 2018 at 12:55 PM ^

You are misunderstanding - it's already been 14 years since we last won a B1G title.

So I am saying, based on the current roster makeup along with what our last class and our current class not even being close to OSU, we can expect more of the same for the next 4-5 years too.  So, it's not crazy to extrapolate out that we can expect another ~decade drought.

The Baughz

December 14th, 2018 at 11:53 AM ^

Sadly, your statement might be plausible. It’s already been 15 years and it’s not too crazy to assume UM wont win a championship for another 15. UM has had 3 really good teams in the last 15 years-‘06,’16 and ‘18-and UM lost all 3 match-ups against OSU. 

Also, because Michigan has the worst luck, those 3 games were all away. I would think that if those 3 games were at home then M would probably would have won at least one of those. Just think what 1 win in any of those games would have done for this program. But here we are. Getting blown out and talking about recruiting not being where it needs to be...yet again.

JPC

December 14th, 2018 at 11:55 AM ^

You're being hyperbolic. Our defensive recruiting is good, even if (more likely when) we lose out on these two five stars. Our offensive recruiting isn't top 3, or even top 15, in the country. But that can change

Drevno was a shit recruiter. Our former WR coach was a shit recruiter. Pep isn't good. Losing TW and Jedd really hurt our recruiting on that side of the ball. 

Jay seems to be decent and Warinner is better than Drevno. If we can get a really good recruiting WR coach, it's going to make a huge difference in our classes going forward. If we can dump Pep for a dynamic OC (or passing game coordinator), even better. 

uminks

December 14th, 2018 at 3:53 PM ^

I think we  have a 50/50 chance of beating OSU at home next season. I think Shea will stay and our WR will be great. Hopefully, some of the young OL will keep the OL improving. We may not be as good on D but the offense should score more points. I hope Harbaugh hires a good OC who can open up the passing game. I'm getting sick of seeing our RB, running into a stacked line for only 1 yard gains.