Zach Harrison crystal ball update: Bill Kurelic to foggy

Submitted by Diagonal Blue on December 13th, 2018 at 7:38 PM

Had previously been on Michigan. This comes on the heels of Sam Webb saying this morning his Michigan crystal ball is not nearly as strong as it once was. Going to be a photo finish.

MGB

December 13th, 2018 at 7:48 PM ^

If we could only land one..  flipping Dax back from Bama or winning a head to head against OSU for Harrison. Which would be considered the bigger recruiting win?

AMaized

December 13th, 2018 at 8:00 PM ^

For the impact player, Dax. Overall is a little harder to say.  Dax to UM increases the chance of Battle to tOSU.  I’d still say Dax as Harrison won’t see the field next year while Dax has a shot. 

With that being said m, nobody knows where Harrison is going and everyone can just chill for a few days.   

Arb lover

December 14th, 2018 at 7:55 AM ^

Harrison would absolutely see the field next year, probably not as a starter, but he would definitely get a lot of minutes.

Or do you think high quality true freshman DEs don't make it on the field at Michigan? If so you haven't been watching the last 3 years.

Gentleman Squirrels

December 13th, 2018 at 7:49 PM ^

Did Webb give a reason as to why his crystal ball isn't as strong as it once was? Was it simply because of the game and the aftermath of it or did he get new information in the last day or two that caused him to say that? To me that's the difference between going from 90% confidence before game to 60% confidence after. Or 60% confidence a couple days ago to 30% confidence now.

OwenGoBlue

December 13th, 2018 at 7:54 PM ^

Webb said if he changes his CB we should pay attention but that he hasn't heard anything that would make him change it. The way he described it this is a continuation of the same post-Game reaction/speculation and nothing to do with the last few days.

Harrison doesn't talk to people much so seems like most of the day-to-day speculation is based on what people are hearing from the programs. 

KC Wolve

December 13th, 2018 at 8:08 PM ^

I mean, I’m reading this post so I guess I’m a bit guilty, but man. People, presumably adults are freaking out over a guy that doesn’t know anything that moved his “guess” from UM to maybe. This all over a high school kid. It’s so bizarre to me. 

JPC

December 13th, 2018 at 8:17 PM ^

I think some of the kids like it, so I guess it’s not awful. This kid though, seems to just be doing his thing will everyone freaks out. 

In reality, he’s a good player. We’ve had a lot of good players. Some turn out, others don’t. This whole thing is just too much, and it gets to be more too much every year. 

sharks

December 13th, 2018 at 7:55 PM ^

You don't get points for 'foggy', right?
I guess he'll settle his pick between now and Wed.  FWIW (very little, I'm sure), there isn't a ton of confidence at 11W.  I suppose that means no one has any idea...

Mongo

December 13th, 2018 at 8:00 PM ^

No way. This kid is tooling everyone. He was always an OSU commit. He hates the recruiting thing and is just f-ing with everyone ... including bucknut fans.

TD Billy Taylor

December 13th, 2018 at 8:01 PM ^

He gone (to OSU, that is).

This staff's inability to finish or close in key situations (big-time recruits, big-time games) is incredibly frustrating. There was a narrative when Harbaugh was hired that he couldn't win "the big one" (lost SB, lost 2 NFC CGs), and I think it's pretty true at this point. We need someone who can actually close--what's the point of winning 10 games or recruiting a 5-star for years if you never actually win or land the recruit?

Fuck Jim.

JPC

December 13th, 2018 at 8:09 PM ^

Super hot take.

Harbaugh took the team from utter shit to good. I think he’s one major shake up away from breaking out. However, will he fire his kid and get a real RB coach? Will he run a more evolved/simpler pro style power scheme? I’m not sure. 

Having Drevno on staff for so long really screwed up the team, and whatever went down with TW didn’t help recruiting at all. 

BoCanHam15

December 13th, 2018 at 8:36 PM ^

You use the word super hot take and so long in the same post?  Let’s see count to three for me and then use an equal sign and explain the Drevno comment!  I think you’re used to just slinging slop and watching for the stain!  Drevno too long?  Unbelievable.  Yeah, Harbaugh has failed due to your statements alone!

JPC

December 13th, 2018 at 8:45 PM ^

That's funny, but double posting to yourself is lame.

Word is, Harbaugh shopped Drevno around with no takers the offseason that Frey came on board. Harbaugh should have fired him, instead of allowing Drevno to retard our OL development for an additional year. 

Any other mysteries that you'd like explained to you? 

Realus

December 14th, 2018 at 10:31 AM ^

Even though you joined barely a month ago, you seemed credible.  You almost had me.

However, saying:

    However, will he fire his kid and get a real RB coach?

means you are either a troll or an idiot.  Can't wait for the ignore option.

Sten Carlson

December 13th, 2018 at 8:28 PM ^

We need someone who can actually close

Who might that be?  Any ideas?  Or are you just going to whine about it like a little emo brat?

what's the point of winning 10 game

The point is ... no, fuck it!  It’s comments like these continue to whittle away at my faith in humanity.  What vapid spaces could possibly compose such an inane comment?  The sad reality is that you expect people to take you seriously.  You honestly believe that you have a solid understanding of what it takes to be a successful college football coach.  If you truly love Michigan football, you’ll take a thorough look in the mirror and ask yourself if your doing and saying the right things.  

For the love of Yost some people in here are baffling!

OwenGoBlue

December 13th, 2018 at 8:05 PM ^

I think it would be productive if we could get the crystal ball threads all in one place somehow. More for giving the discussion a big picture view than concern over crowding the board. Maybe a weekly board sticky or diary? 

I get there's more information/value when CBs come from certain folks but the value of the whole ballz system seems to be the larger aggregation and trends.

mGrowOld

December 13th, 2018 at 8:06 PM ^

When you're trying to pull a 5 star kid out of Ohio getting your balls blasted, again, by Ohio State, is not the way to do it.

Not coincidentally when we used to get Ohio's best (Woodson, Grbac, Howard, Powers, etc) we were also beating OSU on the regular.  Which made the recruiting pitch pretty easy "do you want to win or do you want to go to OSU?"  I know-i used it myself.

Well guess what the OSU recruiters say to kids like Harrison now?

Getting your ass beat in 62-39 has consequences.

Diagonal Blue

December 13th, 2018 at 8:12 PM ^

Here's the sad reality: OSU watched the IU tape and did exactly what IU did to UM only with better athletes. Don Brown had no answers for something he should have known was coming. UM watched the Maryland tape and decided instead of running outside zone and attacking their secondary with our WR's, we'd rather run it up the middle and force the ball to our TE's, who couldn't catch a cold or block a stiff breeze that day. That game plan was the height of stupidity and arrogance. And we are paying $1.5 million to our OC for our offense to not even show up in the three biggest games of the year (ND, OSU, MSU).

OwenGoBlue

December 13th, 2018 at 8:21 PM ^

Not to excuse Brown in the least for that day but OSU bombed trap coverage in a way we haven't seen this season so they weren't just doing what Indiana did. 

They killed Michigan's counter and Brown didn't have an answer. Not getting pressure left them double killed. 

With how often they had the right play vs the right look I think they also spotted some tells and tendencies beyond the obvious man/zone tipoffs. Every time a guy came down to trap they were throwing behind him. 

JPC

December 13th, 2018 at 8:23 PM ^

You’re definitely maizen, and almost everyone here seems to hate you because you never drop it, but you're correct here. 

That gameplan was the height of stubbornness. Harbaugh thought he could run his base offense and just... I don’t know what... out tough osu or something. Harbaugh is a good coach, but a great one doesn’t make such a huge miscalculation and then have no “plan B”. 

Brown shit the bed, but I think he can fix it. Can Harbaugh generate a dynamic offense that can be ball control when it needs to be, while still being quick scoring when that doesn’t work out? 

I hope so. 

Jasper

December 13th, 2018 at 8:09 PM ^

I like how the OP (of course) and others seem to ignore the idea of agency on the part of the players. It's as though they're completely passive in the process and that everything depends on how well Harbaugh "closes."

JPC

December 13th, 2018 at 11:39 PM ^

I’m not sure anyone could “close” someone who wasn’t already incredibly likely to sign win Michigan after that game. Just getting killed like that is bad enough, but getting killed by the other team he’s interested in... and located in the same town. He’d have to really love Michigan to come here, and the slimiest of assholes probably couldn’t sway him otherwise. 

Don

December 13th, 2018 at 8:18 PM ^

Never thought he was coming here in the first place, and the beatdown in Columbus made it that more unlikely. If he does come here now, it's a major recruiting upset.

4th and Go For It

December 13th, 2018 at 8:33 PM ^

{Looks to see who posted}

sigh. Didn’t read but let me guess something something negative recruiting something something harbaugh sucks.

hate to break it to you dude but complaining on the internet about recruiting incessantly isn’t going to change anything. Do you enjoy this? Honest question. Like is it fun? You aren’t a troll outright but it does feel like your content is programmatically pissed off and you do have a relentlessly negative outlook and don’t seem to be interested in even conceding others points.

are you looking for friends who think the same way? Are you hoping to sway us all to your way of thinking? don’t get why a Michigan fan would want to take every opportunity to take the most negative take possible? Could you share some insight in a non-dickish  response? What’s your goal? Just being pissed on the internet?

4th phase

December 13th, 2018 at 9:02 PM ^

Yeah I'm also very confused on his motivation. It's like he said some things once about firing beilein over his recruiting and  people disagreed so he has to keep digging on that same stance about recruiting in the most pessimistic way in order to convince people (I guess?). I wonder where he finds the time to post 20+ times a day on this site and also I don't get why when someone calls him out he challenges that person to link to posts from his banned (and deleted) accounts. No matter how many accounts you create, we will be able to tell who you really are.

Sten Carlson

December 13th, 2018 at 9:28 PM ^

This ^^^

I was speaking with a friend about this the other day.  I mean this with no disrespect to certain generations, but it seems that certain age groups have a dearth (lol) of pathological people whose emotional lives revolve around overly dramatic outcry over perceived injustices, inequalities, and disappointments.  There’s never any solutions presented, perspective, nor patient stances assumed, just outcry demanding that their hurt feeling be assuaged IMMEDIATELY or else!

In this case, nothing that came before matters (perceptive), because they’re sick of losing to OSU (hurt feelings), nothing is ever right or good enough, (no solutions), they want to win NOW (patience) or else they want the whole thing burned to the ground! 

It’s this last demand/threat that displays the pathology so plainly — it’s basically, a delayed emotional maturation.  Well adjusted adults have perspective, patience, and understand that their feelings — especially about over which they’ve not control — are their responsibility, not someone else’s.  Further, adjusted adults who care about something seek solutions, or at the very least, show a willingness to intelligently discuss solutions.

By contrast, people displaying this pathology only offer nebulous platitudes : just win, coach better, recruit harder, etc. Further, when someone questions their oversimplification of the matter and offers perspective and possible solutions, they burst into hysterics — like a child throwing and tantrum — call everyone else delusional, claim their making excuses, and state that (in this case) everyone should be fired and someone else should be brought in.  Don’t bother to ask who that person is, it matters not.  Just someone else who will WIN NOW so they can feel better!