Zach Harrison crystal ball update: Bill Kurelic to foggy

Submitted by Diagonal Blue on December 13th, 2018 at 7:38 PM

Had previously been on Michigan. This comes on the heels of Sam Webb saying this morning his Michigan crystal ball is not nearly as strong as it once was. Going to be a photo finish.

MGoStrength

December 15th, 2018 at 9:37 AM ^

I don't know what Saban does with or tells recruits, but it's highly effective.  And, it's more than winning.  He closed top 3 classes at LSU while he was winning just 7-8 games per year and he did the same at Bama after coming off a terrible stint with the Dolphins and not winning many games his first year at Bama, so it's more than just his wins post-2007 (although I'm sure they help now).

onechampionshi…

December 13th, 2018 at 7:44 PM ^

He's gone. He saw the incompetence from Harbaugh and Co. live and up-close. It's not happening. On to the next. 

xtramelanin

December 13th, 2018 at 7:51 PM ^

speaking of delusional, why don't you tell us a bit about yourself.  maybe your school/job/athletic/marital history?  we'd all love to get to know you since you are the master of reality.  you must be a very neat fella (or gal, sorry if i'm being presumptuous).  

Albatross

December 13th, 2018 at 9:49 PM ^

Four years in and what has Harbaugh done?

NC? Negative, but let’s set our sights lower.

Big Ten title? No, so let’s set our sights lower.

BT championship game berth? No. Let’s set our sights lower.

Beating OSU. No, Let’s set our sights lower.

Winning record in bowl games. No. Not sure how much lower we can set our sights.

Sten Carlson

December 13th, 2018 at 11:43 PM ^

Four years in and what has Harbaugh done?

Nothing, really unless you consider: 

1) 1st back-to-back 10 win seasons since 2003 and 2004

and

2) 1st 10 (or more) wins in 3 of 4 seasons since 1997-2000 — before that, since 1977-1980 

So really you’re right, he’s done nothing ... unless, of course you’re one of those crazy, excuse-making fans who have the irrational belief that accomplishments that had not been achieved at Michigan for 11-12 years, 18-21 years, and for only the 3rd time in the last 38-41years is actually SOMETHING!  

But what kind of whack job would believe that?!

ak47

December 14th, 2018 at 8:07 AM ^

And I believe the only team in that group to not make the playoffs or win a conference championship which is what matters more. Unless you come from the bo school of overall wins somehow matter more than championships

from like 2012-2015 the orioles had a top 5 record in baseball and the best record in the al east. Goes who cares about that besides orioles fans?

JPC

December 14th, 2018 at 9:16 AM ^

Yep. People like to shout about the three 10 win seasons in four years, which is good. Now, how about some lowlights?

Not going max protect on the punt against MSU

Roughing the kicker a million times against Iowa

Collapsing against FSU

The awful USC bowl

The losses against OSU aren't so bad since we did pretty well the previous two years. Getting absolutely killed this year really shook some people, though. 

Harbaugh is a good coach, and he does the important stuff properly (not hiding violence against women, lying to recruits, etc.). He's far from perfect though, and people need to accept when posters bitch about it. 

Sten Carlson

December 14th, 2018 at 10:07 AM ^

Unless you come from the bo school of overall wins somehow matter more than championships

That’s a total twisting of Bo’s philosophy. Bo understood, as you should (but I’m not surprised that you don’t), that winning begets championships.  If you win, the championships will come.  Not always, as you pointed out, as there is always uncertainty.  However, where there is 100% certainty is that championships NEVER arise out of losing.  

This is what you and the other miserable cunts in here don’t seem to get.  The ONLY thing a team can do is their best to win, and almost everything else is out of their control.  In Bo’s time, the NC was decided by voters, and although we have a playoff today, it’s still got a subjective aspect.  It’s not that winning was more important than championships, it’s that winning is the ONLY pathway to championships.  

Harbaugh’s first task was to start winning again — which he has as illustrated by the stats I posted above.  In fact, he’s winning at a rate not seen at Michigan since the glory days of the late 90’s and early 2000’s, and before that since the late 70’s.  You might not care, and that’s your right.  But, as we already established, a team MUST win to get championships.  

Now, the good news is that Michigan’s only task currently — and it’s a tall one — is to beat OSU.  Do that, and championships will (maybe) come.  Harbaugh is winning at a rate that earned championships in the past, save for one game.  The problem is, it’s not the past, it’s the present.  Will he?  I sure hope so, but one never knows.  But, you act as if the task is a simple one — just go beat OSU and win an NC — as if EVERYONE does that except Michigan.  

Such a ridiculous perspective!

Realus

December 14th, 2018 at 10:22 AM ^

Bring it Sten!

I agree with you to a point.

When Harbaugh first came to Michigan, I really thought he was the second coming of Bo, at least :-)

And, maybe in a sense, he is.  What I don't like, so far, is he doesn't have an aggressive, explosive, attacking offense.  His offense is based on maximizing time of possession so his very very good defense looks elite, but is actually not elite.

If you really want, you could probably get an aggressive, explosive, attacking offense with primarily a run game.

And the problem, now, and definitely in 2019 is that he has ALL of tools to create an explosive offense.  Fantastic receiving core.  At least one very fast RB.  And good receiving TEs for dump offs and constraints.

But he hasn't done it.  And probably won't.

If OSU scores 50 against us again next year, there is ZERO chance that Michigan wins.  Period.  Despite getting boatraced this year.

This is a problem.

ak47

December 14th, 2018 at 11:49 AM ^

Lol at glory days of the late 90's and early 2000's. Its because of Bo's inability to win a championship that people think of that as glory days.

Glory days is FSU's run of top 5 finishes and multiple national championships, or Nebraska's run of national championships, or what Bama is doing right now.

Comparing Michigan to everyone else is admitting Michigan isn't a blue blood. If you want Michigan to be a blue blood that means getting compared against other blue bloods. So which is it, is Michigan in the top tier of the sport and underperforming relative to their peers or a second tier school that is doing pretty well?

wolverine1987

December 14th, 2018 at 7:11 AM ^

The only rejoinder to this is that, as you well know, these accomplishments were not what nearly all M fans were expecting when Harbaugh was hired. If four years ago you would have projected this record, including zero OSU wins everyone here would have called you a troll

Sten Carlson

December 13th, 2018 at 8:19 PM ^

He's gone. He saw the incompetence from Harbaugh and Co. live and up-close. It's not happening.

Nothing you posted is “reality” save for the fact that he was, actually at game.  

You guys are all alike.  You post negative opinions — which you’re definitely entitled — as if they’re facts, then when questioned you call everyone delusional and proclaim yourself a realist. 

Neither you, nor anyone, except the recruit himself, knows what is going to happen.  

Sten Carlson

December 13th, 2018 at 9:55 PM ^

The sad realization that I’ve come to is that “not settling”, in this case, means perpetually reporting negativity until they get what they want.  Basically, it’s the same as a child screaming until their need — whatever it might be — is met.  What they want is to stop hurting, but because their so emotionally stunted (for a variety of reasons) they lack the ability to “self-sooth” if you will.  As such, the only salve for their chapping is to come to the internet and cry out how much pain their in and how they want it to stop NOW!

The even sadder irony is the thing their most negative about, like Michigan football, is something they profess to love.  They say their here to “keep us homer slappies real”, to point out that all is not well, and sadly, they honestly believe that doing so will somehow alter the reality of the situation.  I used to think these people trolls, i.e., deliberately being contrarians whether sincere or not, just to get a rise out of people.  I don’t believe it any more. 

Trolls aren’t so subtle.  These folks are just little, emotionally stunted Gollums, who lack all capacity for reason and emotional maturity.  Unfortunately, what they don’t realize is that they are actually creating a negative vibe around something they profess to love.  It’s twisted.  Lastly, because they know no other way, their entire solution to any problem is to just crumple up the paper and throw it in the trash.  

It would be fascinating, except for the knowledge that, at some point, they’re going to be running the world.  

Bucknutz36

December 14th, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^

I'm an OSU fan, but I'm also a Browns fan, so I completely understand this dynamic.  In no way do I mean to imply Michigan football is like the Browns, I just mean the dynamic between the ultra negative posters, and the fans that are equally disappointed the team hasn't been better, but still dare to be positive about certain things.  Those fans are called homers, or aren't realistic, or have no grip on reality, etc.  The part I truly don't understand is why trolls feel there is some sort of connection between being negative, and putting up with a less than stellar product on the field.  No amount of complaining changes anything, changes only happen when the team we love finds the right people, and those people make better decisions, coach better, etc.  No amount of fan anger helped the Browns improve, it just so happens the Browns finally hired a GM who knows what he's doing, who so far has drafted better, signed better players, etc.  I have absolutely no doubt Harbaugh is that guy for you.  That doesn't mean he's perfect, or that changes shouldn't be made, etc., but I have no doubt he's the right guy.  Let's put it this way, as an OSU fan, I would be far less concerned about Michigan beginning to get the better of OSU in the rivalry if Harbaugh left or was fired. I'm sure you care little about what an OSU fan has to say, but I just thought I'd share from a different perspective.  No matter how much shit OSU fans talk, trust me, most of us know where this rivalry is headed, which is with Michigan winning their fair share.  Most just would never admit it.   

xtramelanin

December 14th, 2018 at 4:33 PM ^

you were wrong about one thing:  i think most of us genuinely enjoy fans from other teams posting here (e.g, buckeye chuck, nittany fan) when they are fun, realistic, add to the convo and yes, even if adding to it is legitimate disagreement.  what nobody likes is the stupid trolling.  you aren't trolling and people will enjoy what you posted.  thanks. 

 

ScooterTooter

December 13th, 2018 at 8:01 PM ^

Sure. They fluked into one in 2016. Otherwise Franklin is 1-3 vs Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State since Harbaugh arrived at Michigan. He had one good year where a bunch of results broke his way and his team won a game they shouldn't have against Ohio State. 

onechampionshi…

December 13th, 2018 at 8:06 PM ^

That's fine. And Barkley, McSorley and Moorehead were huge factors as well. However, the fact that Michigan, who is supposed to be the class of the Big Ten, can't even luck their way into a championship game in 14 years is beyond pathetic. Pretty sick of the justifications (excuses) provided by fans. 

Sten Carlson

December 13th, 2018 at 9:02 PM ^

... Michigan, who is supposed to be the class of the Big Ten

Supposed to be?  What in the ever loving fuck does that mean?!  When was the last time Michigan was the, “class of the B10?  You do realize that before 2015 and 2016 — incidentally, when Harbaugh arrived — the last time Michigan had back-to-back 10 win seasons was 2003 and 2004, right?  Further, the last time Michigan won 10 or more games in 3 of 4 seasons was 1997-2000.  So the last time Michigan was the “class of the Big 10” was nearly before most of the current team was born.  

Seems that many of you miserable cunts conveniently forget what occurred BETWEEN then and now.  Even then, it’s not like Michigan was reeling off NC’s — we had 1 (shared) between the 1940’s and 1997 and that was voted not via playoff.  Further, CFB, and the B10 with it, has changed.  Back then, it was OSU and Michigan, that’s it.  

Pretty sick of the justifications (excuses) provided by fans. 

Excuses you say?  What should we do then?  Is it disappointing that Michigan continues to struggle to beat OSU — the most consistent CFB program of the last 20 years, and perhaps the second most of the last 10 — unequivocally, yes.  But what should we do?  Should we get out the torches and pitchforks to run the guy out of town who has delivered the best results in 20 FUCKING YEARS?!

This is the mentality plaguing our society — the pathologically shortsighted, instant gratification, throw away mentality.  Do I think Harbaugh is infallible?  No, I do not.  But, Michigan went from totally irrelevant and teetering on the brink of being a footnote in the history of CFB, to being relevant for the first time since 2006.  How old were you in 2006?  Do you remember the humiliation of App St. followed by Oregon?  What about Toledo, or Minnesota at home, or Rutgers?

Yeah it sucks to lose to OSU, but they’re REALLY REALLY GOOD, and while Michigan was dying, they were THRIVING.  Get some fucking perspective!

ScooterTooter

December 13th, 2018 at 9:26 PM ^

It actually is pretty crazy. 

2006 was a 3 pt road loss in Columbus that prevented a title.

2007 the entire offense was hurt going into the OSU game. 

2011 was a lost opportunity as Hoke/Borges tried to squeeze RR personnel into their vision. 

2012 Denard got hurt against Nebraska, almost certainly costing Michigan a spot in the title game.

2016 was a number of offensive mistakes (Speight's turnovers, Mason Cole's facemask being the most memorable) + an officiating atrocity resulting in a 3 pt loss on the road in Columbus

2018 shared a division title and blew the final game of the season when Michigan (the favored team) went into Columbus with a favorite's mindset when they probably should have went in with an underdog's mindset. 

It's pretty wild that none of those seasons turned into at least a shared title or a conference title game appearance. 

bluepdx

December 13th, 2018 at 7:45 PM ^

Buh-bye.

I cannot imagine that the coaches lack motivation not to get curb stomped again by OSU, but, if they do, perhaps losing him will help.

Sparty Doesn't Know

December 13th, 2018 at 7:45 PM ^

This is problematic.  62-39 plus a lousy finish to the early signing period = damn well better lay it on Florida.