OT: Are you bullish or skeptical on Detroit's comeback?

Submitted by chuck bass on December 10th, 2018 at 1:11 PM

I was in Detroit all of last week and it was encouraging to see neighborhoods doing well, neat restaurants, and construction. But honestly, the changes don't seem anywhere near as robust as needed to move the needle, especially if you've recently been to a Boston, Dallas, Denver, Portland, Silicon Valley, Seattle, Atlanta, Nashville, D.C., or Chicago.

Any of you encouraging your children to choose Detroit over an already turn-key coastal or Sun Belt city? If the Midwest is where a 20-something kid wants to be, how do you justify $1500 average rent in downtown Detroit when $1500 can put your kid in Lakeview or Wrigleyville Chicago? And that's before Detroit's sky-high rental and auto insurance. It's one thing if living in Detroit was a remarkable value for kids, but it's not at all.

Further, GM slashing headcount and looming Ford layoffs (up to 25,000) can't be good. I follow Charlie LeDuff's podcast (a great listen) and stay current with various Detroit news outlets. Seems corruption and practically nonexistent public services are ongoing issues. Cooking crime stats, hyper-aggressive parking & towing schemes prey on residents, same crooked politicians and consultants. Detroit has a slightly more polished facade but hasn't cleansed itself of unsavory old ways.

ScooterTooter

December 10th, 2018 at 1:56 PM ^

Man, I loved Grand Rapids when I lived there after college 4-5 years ago. Only gotten better since. Perfect sized city, very walkable, incredibly short uber rides if its cold. 

Actually, since I still get over there pretty frequently, I agree with you. Shitty place. No one move there. Go to Detroit or Chicago instead. 

Jibbroni

December 10th, 2018 at 2:17 PM ^

Lived there until about ten years ago.  Everytime I go back, something new and exciting happening.  Gotta say, for where it is located(the heart of conservative West Michigan) there is a progressive feel to a lot of what goes on there.  No surprise that a few non-corrupt Detroit city leaders visited a few years ago to try and find ways to mimic its success.  

badandboujee

December 10th, 2018 at 1:24 PM ^

It definitely has an improved vibe in some areas but I don't think it will ever be like the cities you listed. I think Cleveland is the realistic goal for Detroit, as pathetic as that sounds

bluebyyou

December 10th, 2018 at 1:25 PM ^

IMO, Detroit will enjoy a small renaissance, but in large part what made Detroit great once was its manufacturing base.  That has shifted to other parts of the US or other countries and isn't coming back. There are strategic advantages to manufacturing in other parts of the US to say nothing of Michigan's crumbling and outdated infrastructure and that doesn't begin to touch some of Detroit's issues. 

The only real Rustbelt city to reinvent itself is Pittsburgh and they have done that on the back of a large financial industry and high-tech industry supported by a couple of very solid research-based universities.  From a population standpoint, Pittsburgh has lost a decent sized chunk of its population base. 

taistreetsmyhero

December 10th, 2018 at 1:32 PM ^

Detroit is trying to attract more tech jobs. My wife was paid to learn how to do web app development for an agency that is funded by Gilbert. He funds tons of similar companies that are trying to attract young people and build up the braintrust in the city. (The issue that it totally ignores the native Detroit population is a whole other beast...)

IMO, a big problem is that Quicken Loans is a terrible sham company and it runs much of the city.

goblue0825

December 10th, 2018 at 2:29 PM ^

I know I'm not the one you asked, but I've been around Detroit for a while, so I thought I would offer some feedback on QL. To me, there are two sides of QL, the MB side is where the vast majority of their employees work. You have to work insane hours and be okay with an incredibly low hourly pay, but you can make a killing if you hit your targets and get good commissions. There is also the side to QL that serves as a bit of a tech hub for the city. I have a few friends that have worked in the tech space for QL and they all rave about it. I also have several friends that work on the MB side and many hate it. QL does a great job with giving back to the community, but it's really a mixed bag on how people feel about the company itself. 

bgoblue02

December 10th, 2018 at 2:36 PM ^

thats fair and helpful, but that doesn't sound like sham, just a competitive profit driven company (not defending it, just stating).  From my understanding any mortgage broker company is insanely competitive and you gotta bust your tail to get the return, but the return is there.  At least there is an upside though unlike an amazon, walmart, etc where its just low pay and long hours?  

Definitely see the point and thats not a great work culture, but not too different than I would have expected. 

thanks for the insight!  

goblue0825

December 10th, 2018 at 2:40 PM ^

No problem. I don’t know all what the other poster had experienced with QL, but there are a lot of people that see it as a sham. I know many people have had issues with the company and the way it’s run. QL was also part of a lawsuit a few years back due to its handbook and the way it treated its employees, so they’re certainly far from perfect. 

taistreetsmyhero

December 10th, 2018 at 1:27 PM ^

I went to school in Detroit from 2013-2017. Lived in the city for two years, and Grosse Pointe for the other two. 

The changes to the downtown area and area surrounding the Wayne State campus (aka "Mid-town") have been very drastic. Tons of new development. But, the prices there are absurd. For a one-bedroom apartment in the city, my wife and I were paying $1400 a month. It was a very nice apartment, but that's an absurd price for Detroit. However, that choice was entirely our own. We chose that mainly for convenience. My wife worked a block from our apartment, and I could walk to my school and the DMC campus.

There are plenty of very very nice apartments and houses you can rent in surrounding neighborhoods (such as Woodbridge) for ~$200-$500/month. Nicely updated, very charming. The issue is that petty crime there is rampant. You have to assume that your car will be vandalized at least a couple of times. None of my classmates who lived there had issues with break-ins, but one person had their car stolen.

And all of this ignores the fact that there is little or no money being put into the neighborhoods that have made Detroit infamous. Detroit is such a huge fucking city. The vast majority of native Detroiters don't live in any of these areas. They aren't seeing any impact on the city's "revival" and can't afford any of the new stuff anyways. 

It's a complex issue for sure...

chuck bass

December 10th, 2018 at 2:01 PM ^

On LeDuff's podcast last night he said the city is down something like 2,000 police officers and 500 firefighters since the year 2000. With such thin manpower, they're only reactive, not proactive, so bureaucrats try to muddy up response time and crime statistics to conceal concerns. I believe city credit ratings are tethered to these statistics, hence urge to juke.

bluebyyou

December 10th, 2018 at 3:06 PM ^

The land area of Detroit is huge and in many areas, there aren't many people living in the homes that are still habitable.  The sheer size of the area requires a large presence of police and fire and the time it takes to arrive at an emergency can be long due to the distances involved. 

In essence, Detroit needs to be "compressed" into a manageable area and the rest of the area razed and this takes a lot of money.

Kevin14

December 11th, 2018 at 9:50 AM ^

Most of that is a fair representation, but I disagree with "little or no money being put into the neighborhoods."  

While downtown has obviously seen the most tangible improvement, there is investment being made in the neighborhoods.  They just announced a $35 million investment yesterday by private businesses that is part of a $200 million investment.  It's certainly worth having the discussion if Detroit is doing enough for the neighborhoods (I'd say no) or about what more can be done.  But narrative that nothing is being done is flat out false.

I'm not trying to call you out specifically because I agree with your overall points, but I've seen/heard similar comments about the neighborhoods repeatedly.  

DCGrad

December 10th, 2018 at 1:27 PM ^

I want to buy in to Detroit, but I don't think I am there yet.  The city is much better than it used to be based on my last visit there, but it really couldn't have gotten much worse.

For Detroit's long-term stability, SE Michigan needs to diversify its industry.  The auto industry faces huge competition from Europe and Asia.  The layoffs stated by the OP are a perfect example of the auto industry's vulnerability.  

Other areas like Philly/NJ invested hugely in pharma and it paid off for them.  NOVA and MoCo invested heavily in tech and it has paid off.  Go to Northern VA sometime and see all the new buildings going up.

For me to buy into Detroit, I would need to see more investment in technology or pharma or whatever the next big thing is.

Detroit should also eminent domain the people living in the outer areas of the city and move them closer to the center so the city can deliver essential police, fire, and ems services effectively.  I am not sure if this is still the case, but I read a story a few years ago about ambulance calls taking 40 mins.  One reason for this was that only 1 or 2 houses on a city block were actually occupied, and the no one really patrolled the area.  This is obviously politically and economically difficult for the city to do, but it would greatly improve the QoL in the city.

The Mad Hatter

December 10th, 2018 at 3:10 PM ^

Bing tried to consolidate neighborhoods by offering city owned houses as an incentive for people to move to more viable areas. The residents told him to go fuck himself. The city is only coming back for real if 1 million people move back there. And that isn't going to happen when city services are shit and property taxes are more than double what I pay in Royal Oak.

rc15

December 10th, 2018 at 1:28 PM ^

The next recession is going to hit Detroit hard... When money gets tight, the nightlife in Detroit is going to plummet, and the housing market will go with it.

Detroit still has the same infrastructural problem, no reasonable/easy public transportation to/from the city to the suburbs. Needed the Qline to go all the way to Royal Oak, and need something similar that goes up Gratiot (to St Clair Shores), Grand River (to Novi), and Michigan Ave (to Canton or even Ypsi). 

jmblue

December 10th, 2018 at 3:21 PM ^

Are you willing to pay for transit that goes into the suburbs?  These things aren't cheap.

The QLine in its current state isn't supposed to be an end in itself.  It's supposed to be the first step, but it needs to be successful before people are willing to pay to extend it further.  

Kevin14

December 11th, 2018 at 10:02 AM ^

The Qline would not be useful to extend in it's current state because it doesn't have a dedicated traffic line and stops at all red lights.  At this point, it's a really nice bus that has a super restricted route.  Fine for getting from downtown to midtown but if you have like 3 people, its probably the same price and way more convenient to uber.

I agree, Detroit needs public transit, but it needs good public transit.  A lot of people in the suburbs don't want to have to commute downtown every day because of the traffic which is only getting worse.  The system you described would be great.  They also need something connecting the airport (and probably going the other way to AA).

Mike Damone

December 10th, 2018 at 1:31 PM ^

Skeptical.  Always feel like Detroit and the Big Three are in "reactive" mode.  Example - Ford's purchase of Spin, the e-scooter company, for $100 million to "get with the times" - about three years too late, when this strategy might have seemed proactive and meaningful.  

Could give other examples - but most of them will seem political.  And as this is not about the Ann Arbor City Council - that is not kosher on this site.

freelion

December 10th, 2018 at 1:33 PM ^

I had this argument with someone on a flight recently. My perspective as a surburbanite who visits the city twice a year was that things look much improved to me. Her perspective as a long-time city resident was that nothing had changed and that the neighborhoods are worse than ever. Maybe it's just time to give up on Detroit and focus on Ann Arbor and Grand Rapids where the real growth and future seem to be.

PopeLando

December 10th, 2018 at 2:10 PM ^

It wasn't too too long ago that GR failed as a city. Furniture manufacturers abandoned their factories, and, surprise!, didn't come back no matter what. 

It took a renewed focus on healthcare, education, and commerce for GR to start recovering. And now they're doing great and its housing market is getting Chicago-esque.

It's going to take that kind of shift for Detroit to blossom too. We shouldn't give up on it, but there's some massive cultural outlook that needs to change. Manufacturing is probably gone forever. So what's next? Until the city/state can answer that question, little will change.

Oh, I also heartily endorse 1) concentrate the population into a reasonable area, and 2) expand public transportation to reasonable and forward-looking levels.

The Chancre

December 10th, 2018 at 1:35 PM ^

Amazing that we all stood by and watched this city get destroyed. It was the planned destruction of a powerful middle class led by solid hard workers, driven by immigration, and fueled by people working together in UNIONS. No, not "liberal policies"--because what made Detroit stand out was that the PEOPLE could truly have power if they actually worked and made good money, then put it back into the economy.

Detroit will never come back because we've become a nation of self-loving money grubbers concerned with our mini van in the garage and nothing lese.

Too bad, it's a BEEEEYOOTIFUL city on water and it should be a destination for both work and play. I have no solutions, but the whole gentrification thing is going to fizzle out quickly since not everyone is making (unlike most on this blog, I'm sure) six figure incomes and can afford high rents, as well as the skyrocketing cost of living.

Soo all these cool "urban developments" like we have in Omaha will be tenements gobbled up by slum lords and paid for by the tax dollars of the few who will have jobs in the only industries that will be left: Medicine, war, prison building, and of course, banking.

RedRum

December 10th, 2018 at 2:22 PM ^

Maybe Detroit should try the cover-two defense...

Goldmans Sachs has a ton of land in detroit to game the metals trade. If there was any pay dirt in detroit, the GS would gobble it up.

"stood by and watched this city get destroyed" Are you not aware of detroiters shooting at firefighters as they tried to extinguish burning buildings? LA had riots... LA looks pretty cool now.. And has been rebuilt with a diverse population... I'll leave it at that.

 

rc15

December 10th, 2018 at 3:09 PM ^

Similar story... My friend that went through the fire academy had a teacher that worked for Detroit FD. They would get reports of fires on the 5th floor, show up, obviously no fire but legally they have to check, smell an obvious aroma of gasoline on the 3rd floor as they're going up, and when they got to the top people lit the fire underneath them and they had to repel down. People are fucked up...

RedRum

December 10th, 2018 at 4:13 PM ^

Two Detroit firefighters lost their lives during the unrest. Carl E. Smith, 30, of Ladder 11, was killed by gunfire at the corner of Mack and St. Jean. John Ashby, 26, of Engine 21, was electrocuted by a high-tension wire while fighting a fire at a supermarket at Lafayette and Canton.

 

this took me 10 seconds to find on google. from time magazine. go to a corner and sit and contemplate your lack of historical knowledge.

 

Ron Utah

December 10th, 2018 at 1:38 PM ^

Skeptical.  Detroit needs an infusion of talent in order to make a true comeback.  Snyder had a lot of bad ideas, but his request for special permission to bring in a bunch of skilled immigrants to revitalize the city was a great one.  Too bad it never happened.

Brodie

December 11th, 2018 at 5:59 PM ^

Yep, this is a big thing. Detroit, that is to say the city, has become more attractive to 20something B1G educated types. But it is mostly attracting 20something B1G educated types who would have moved to Royal Oak otherwise, not the ones who are ultimately Chicago, New York, or West Coast bound. Getting engineers who went to UM/MSU/Purdue/Illinois/other big programs to pick the city over the burbs when they inevitably move to Michigan is a good first step, but more needs to be done. 

This is especially true in an automotive industry where the crazy, exciting engineering projects are being done in California and Arizona by autonomous vehicle startups. Now the Purdue grads are joining the long list of college educated Michiganders who stayed around for ~5 years after college and then found a real city to live in. 

reshp1

December 10th, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^

It'll never recover to the 1920's level, but already pockets are, if anything, too gentrified. As property prices rise in those pockets the neighboring areas will get better as people are priced out and move nearby. 

Watching From Afar

December 11th, 2018 at 10:37 AM ^

As property prices rise in those pockets the neighboring areas will get better as people are priced out and move nearby. 

That's the problem though. If people get priced out of, say, anything inside of the 10/75/375 loop, there is nowhere nearby to go except the suburbs. Maybe Midtown up to 94, but at that point young people wouldn't be happy because there is limited mass transit to get them to the interesting parts of Detroit inside of the loop so they'd have to drive anyways and at that point why live within Detroit limits if you have to drive anyways?

In cities with consistent urban sprawl, there aren't massive pockets of bombed out areas or completely vacant lots. That's a problem with Detroit. If you don't stay within a very specific boundary you immediately venture into areas that aren't just "dangerous", they're empty.

Watching From Afar

December 10th, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^

My fiancee and I are out in Boston currently but are looking to move back to Michigan because our entire family is here. Not necssarily Detroit, but Metro area. She's a high school teacher that teaches at Title 1 schools (so over 90% of her students are eligible for free or subsidized lunches) and I'm looking at grad school right now.

She would love to teach in DPS because that's the income and demographic she wants to teach, but it's such a mess she's not going to. Mind you, she has a master's degree from MSU (top 5 college of education in the country) but won't go to Detroit because they occasionally can't pay their employees or keep the buildings upright.

My father just retired from GM after 45 years (management) and with how that whole thing shook out, I'm not terribly excited about how thinks are going around the area (I know GM isn't Detroit, but it has a lot to do with if Detroit fails or succeeds). We also just took engagement pictures in Detroit and as others have said, it's basically a square 2 or 3 miles that look inviting and the rest is still terrible.

Detroit's revival will have a lot to do with industry in the area and if they can fix the school district. Boston's Dorchester is the worst part of the city (relatively speaking) but it's still full of people because of its proximity to downtown and it's within city limits. Detroit either has the people living downtown or out in the suburbs. There's no in-between and unless the city can attract people with kids, the door will continue to revolve and long term success will hit a ceiling (if it hasn't already).

Chickenor the egg. You need a tax base to pay for services and you need services to get people into the city to pay taxes. Industries alone won't fix Detroit but they will have a heavy hand in it's outlook.

Mike Damone

December 10th, 2018 at 1:48 PM ^

It does - and it used to be great.

Going to stay away from politics - but I urge people to do some research on what has happened to Chicago and the state of Illinois between the mid-90s and now.  Hopefully, Michigan will avoid such mistakes in the future...

bacon1431

December 10th, 2018 at 1:46 PM ^

The city will not make a comeback until there are a significant amount of living wage jobs readily available for people that don't have college degrees or vocational skills. That is when most large cities are successful. If those jobs are available, the next thing that will improve is housing and education. When you get all three, a city will thrive. Detroit has been losing jobs, housing and education for the last half century. All their recent plans and "improvements" have not really done anything for the actual residents of Detroit. It just attracts more people to the suburbs and Detroit doesn't benefit all that much. 

bacon1431

December 10th, 2018 at 8:45 PM ^

Manufacturing jobs disappeared. But many other jobs used to pay a living wage and currently don’t. Living wages are needed. There will always be a significant portion of the country’s population that is “unskilled” because we’ve gutted education and other public services that are beneficial to over 90% of the population. 

jmblue

December 10th, 2018 at 2:10 PM ^

The city will not make a comeback until there are a significant amount of living wage jobs readily available for people that don't have college degrees or vocational skills. That is when most large cities are successful.

Is there really a big city in America that has good-paying jobs for people in that category?  That basically stopped being true in this country a generation ago.

IMO, what really separates Detroit from New York, Chicago and the rest is that there are a lot fewer white-collar residents.  Every city has its working classes that are struggling. What Detroit lacks is that Upper East Side/Gold Coast/Pacific Palisades neighborhood within the city limits that the wealthy flock to, and which helps to paper over all the poverty elsewhere in the public imagination.