OT: Are you bullish or skeptical on Detroit's comeback?

Submitted by chuck bass on December 10th, 2018 at 1:11 PM

I was in Detroit all of last week and it was encouraging to see neighborhoods doing well, neat restaurants, and construction. But honestly, the changes don't seem anywhere near as robust as needed to move the needle, especially if you've recently been to a Boston, Dallas, Denver, Portland, Silicon Valley, Seattle, Atlanta, Nashville, D.C., or Chicago.

Any of you encouraging your children to choose Detroit over an already turn-key coastal or Sun Belt city? If the Midwest is where a 20-something kid wants to be, how do you justify $1500 average rent in downtown Detroit when $1500 can put your kid in Lakeview or Wrigleyville Chicago? And that's before Detroit's sky-high rental and auto insurance. It's one thing if living in Detroit was a remarkable value for kids, but it's not at all.

Further, GM slashing headcount and looming Ford layoffs (up to 25,000) can't be good. I follow Charlie LeDuff's podcast (a great listen) and stay current with various Detroit news outlets. Seems corruption and practically nonexistent public services are ongoing issues. Cooking crime stats, hyper-aggressive parking & towing schemes prey on residents, same crooked politicians and consultants. Detroit has a slightly more polished facade but hasn't cleansed itself of unsavory old ways.

Jasper

December 10th, 2018 at 1:50 PM ^

Just about all bad things that could happen in a large city have happened in Detroit. Take a spin on any of the big streets (Grand River, Gratiot, etc.) and try to convince yourself that most of the city will "come back" naturally without major intervention ($ and otherwise). 

I don't see it.

chuck bass

December 10th, 2018 at 2:16 PM ^

Dovetailing on that, with all the Detroit optimism, Birmingham ritzy as ever, Royal Oak's sustained growth, and Ferndale booming, I thought my route down Woodward Ave. from the Townsend Hotel in Birmingham into Detroit would be totally revitalized. Unfortunately miles of Woodward Ave. look frozen in the post-riot 1970s. If you were scouting for Amazon or Apple or whatever other F500 or tech upstart, you're almost certainly going to take a cruise up and down Woodward Ave. I'd think sorting out the region's most iconic thoroughfare would be top of the to-do list. But of course that's not cheap.

bluewings

December 10th, 2018 at 1:57 PM ^

I heard Amazon is looking for headquarters #2 or something. Oh wouldn't it be great if they picked Detroit. So much drama but it will be worth it if they picked a Detroit like city..... and the winner is 

New York City!!! 

Wtf. Assholes 

kevbo1

December 10th, 2018 at 2:03 PM ^

Industry is basically dead in this country for a variety of reasons.  If Detroit wants to thrive it should try to attract companies of the present.  

The above still doesn't get at the primary issue holding the city back, which will not be discussed here.

The Chancre

December 10th, 2018 at 3:56 PM ^

What, exactly, or even approximately, are "companies of the present"? Detroit probably thought it was getting one, but Quicken Loans is just pencil pushers who are probably mortgaged to the hilt themselves and off nothing in the way of true career satisfaction. And when the next desperate city promises them no taxes and billions in kickbacks, they're outta here faster than Dax Hill.

As for the Issue Which Shall Not Be Discussed, we know what you mean, Rush, and you are right--jobs and opportunities that give people a purpose. A society that does NOT judge based on race, color, or any of the other things we use to hate each other.

THAT'S what has held this city back.

jmblue

December 10th, 2018 at 2:04 PM ^

You're presenting a false dilemma here.  People go where jobs are.  If there's a good job in Metro Detroit, people will come here.   

The issue isn't how Detroit stacks up to other big cities, but how it stacks up to other places in the metro area.  Do you want to live downtown (or Midtown, the Jefferson corridor, etc.) or in Ferndale, Royal Oak, etc.?  That's the big question.  For years it was no contest, but now there is actual demand to live downtown, which is where those high rents come into play.  

goblue0825

December 10th, 2018 at 2:17 PM ^

Detroit has done a fairly good job of attracting people early in their careers to live Downtown. The problem as I see it is if you had competing offers in Chicago and Detroit, but can live in Chicago for nearly the same cost as Detroit, then would you truly want to pick Detroit? Obviously there are family and other factors that might cause someone to pick Detroit in that situation, but without ties to the area a lot of people are going to choose other locations. Rent has become absurd in the downtown/midtown area (at least for Detroit). Also, a lot companies were offering incentives for their employees to move downtown, but have now ceased those incentives. It will be interesting to see how many want to stay downtown without receiving benefits for it. I was born and raised here, but I can understand why your average new grad wouldn't choose Detroit over Atlanta, Chicago, Nashville, or other large cities where costs are nearly equal, or more manageable. 

jmblue

December 10th, 2018 at 2:26 PM ^

The problem as I see it is if you had competing offers in Chicago and Detroit, but can live in Chicago for nearly the same cost as Detroit, then would you truly want to pick Detroit? 

How many people are really in that kind of situation?   Most don't have the chance to just pick whatever region of the country they want to live in.

A much larger number face the choice between the city and suburbs, and that's where Detroit has to focus.

 

goblue0825

December 10th, 2018 at 2:33 PM ^

Actually it's not that rare. I know I have had it and have had several friends with competing offers between other cities. I am not a Michigan grad, but I would bet that many people who are graduates had offers from other large cities. I know the handful of alumni that I know of almost all had offers from other cities (NYC, ATL, Chi, DC) and Detroit lost many of them. 

SAMgO

December 10th, 2018 at 4:21 PM ^

Most Michigan grads have the luxury of targeting which city they'd like to live in and conducting a job search while still in school to land a position in their desired city. The prospect of moving to Detroit post-grad would be laughable to most job seeking UM grads. The majority of my classmates ended up in NYC/Chicago/SF/LA/DC after graduation, and more even ended up in towns like Seattle or Denver than Detroit. It's just not a desirable landing spot for a new grad, and when Michigan's smartest high school students tend to go to UM and then leave the state, it leaves Detroit in a braindrain scenario.

Kevin14

December 11th, 2018 at 10:52 AM ^

It's actually a fairly common situation.  A lot of UM/MSU grads face that decision.  Moreso people from in state.  In the past it was Chicago v. suburban Detroit.  Not really much of a contest.

Now, it's Chicago v. Downtown Detroit.  Still not much of a contest at this point, but if your family is from Michigan, it at least gives you something to consider.  I see this happening in recruiting at my current job and among my friends who are from the state. 

If Detroit can start attracting more of these talented people, that's a great step forward.  Ppl who come to UM from the east coast/west coast/chicago aren't going to be moving toward Detroit. But if Detroit can start "winning" more of the Michigan and Indiana/Ohio kids, eventually it may become a more compelling case for out of staters.

chuck bass

December 11th, 2018 at 11:09 AM ^

How many people are really in that kind of situation?   Most don't have the chance to just pick whatever region of the country they want to live in.

A much larger number face the choice between the city and suburbs, and that's where Detroit has to focus.

Most of UM and MSU, as well as the top kids at other in-state colleges can easily secure a job in Chicago. UM and MSU have been losing something like 10-20% of each class to Chicago for a couple of decades. My old college mate runs a sales dept. in Chicago, he shared he has many former Quicken kids working for him, who saved some coin (living at home for a bit?) before making the move to Chicago. As I said up-thread, for all of its warts, Chicago is a really easy big city to land in (college kids visit for years, lots of friends there, easy drive from family, affordable neighborhoods), so Detroit will always have to compete with it. And now you have Grand Rapids and Ann Arbor looking more compelling than ever.

Dorothy_ Mantooth

December 10th, 2018 at 2:07 PM ^

Detroit's 'comeback' is kinda like non-surgical weight loss - however long it took to put on that gut, its going to take about the same time to take it off 

...DET's renaissance isn't going to be a lap-band procedure, but rather a slow but steady progression - but its coming (the tax base has been returning to the city)

93Grad

December 10th, 2018 at 5:02 PM ^

Exactly.  It took decades to create the mess that Detroit became.  While there have been some really nice improvements since the bankruptcy, it is going to take decades for the solutions to work themselves out.  It will never be what it was in the 50's because the City is geographically built for three times its current population.  They need to figure out a way to shrink it down to fit 700,000 to 1 million people.  

goblue0825

December 10th, 2018 at 2:09 PM ^

My wife and I moved  back to Detroit over the summer from Nashville. We heard many stories about Detroit's renaissance, but as many have pointed out the Downtown/Mid-Town areas are really the only areas that have improved. We have several friends that choose to live in pockets of the Downtown area, but all of them have mentioned issues with petty crimes and/or other problems.  I've lived in Chicago/Nashville and rarely, if ever, had concerns when having a night out in the city. Detroit just doesn't have that unless you're staying within that 2-3 mile area and even their you can find some areas that can make you feel uncomfortable. The city certainly has come a long way, but I just don't see it ever getting to that secondary big city level (i.e. Nashville) and certainly not up to the level of Chicago, Boston, NYC etc. If they want to maximize their potential, then we need more public transit. The Qline was a decent start, but it doesn't help connect the suburbs to the city at all and not many people would choose to take the bus. Nashville is facing a similar issue in regards to their public transit, but their growth is also exponentially greater than that of Detroit. If we can figure the transit system out, then we will have a good step in the right direction. 

m_go_T

December 10th, 2018 at 2:13 PM ^

I live in Detroit, and for me, I love it.  I like living in Michigan, however, despite having options to live in most desirable areas (i.e., I work from home and I make the requisite salary to live in those cities).  Taking away the warm and fuzzies, such as friends, family, sports teams and leagues I play in, I think it becomes a little less desirable.  

First of all, I don't think you can really compare living in Chicago, Denver, Silicon Valley, etc. to living in Detroit.  First of all, those cities didn't have to climb back from the pits of disrepair that Detroit has to climb back from.  This is both a positive and a negative.  

The things that are negatives for Detroit also exist in some top level cities as well though.  Chicago school districts are bad as well (maybe not as bad, but still crappy).  Crime is just as bad in Chicago, and even worse in certain areas.  My friends in Chicago lived in Logan Square (and so did I many years ago), and the random murders in a neighborhood where houses are priced at a million is nuts to me.  

In Detroit, rents are getting kind of silly, but there are still plenty of good options under $1000.  I lived in Corktown in a newer 2 bedroom loft that was 1400 square feet and I paid $1500 a month.  I lived walking distance from all the restaurants and bars (and in many cases they were on my block or one block away).  For $1500 a month in Silicon Valley, Denver, or Chicago, you would not get that type of space or location.  If you wanted to live in New Center or Woodbridge, you can find lots of stuff for under $1000.  If you venture out even further, there are better deals to be had.  

Buying property is where there is a huge advantage.  As I watch the condos go up in Corktown and Midtown, I am shocked by the 500k sticker price on a two bedroom condo.  If you compare other cities, however, where are you going to find a new construction two bedroom condo or townhouse that is less than one mile from downtown for 500k? Even better, is older construction.  My wife and I just bought a 1900 sq ft fully updated townhome in Woodbridge, with a garage for under 300k.  300k in Silicon Valley would not buy me a shack in Sunnyvale (believe me, I looked and the closes thing I found was a 600 sq foot literal shack in a concrete patch for 500k).  Same goes for Chicago, you are not finding a home for less than 500k that is in a "safe" area.  Furthermore, there are tons of opportunities in developing areas that are even closer to downtown than I am.  For example, North Corktown still looks like Mississippi and homes can be found at Mississippi prices.  But a brand new rehab single family home can be found in North Corktown for under 300k.  My friends who had a huge loft in corktown (over 5000 square feet), bought it for 500k a few years ago and just sold it for 1.2 million (post Ford/train station bump).  So there is an opportunity to make some money on real estate here, if that's what you are looking for.    

With respect to Entertainment, Detroit is good depending on what you like.  There are plenty of cool restaurants, bars, concert venues, but it pales in comparison to the bigger cities.  The nice thing though, is if you live in the city, you pretty much get to know all the people at these establishments, which converts to lots of "VIP" service.  If I a place is super trendy and hard to get a reservation, I can pretty much always walk in and get a table, despite the hour to two hour wait.  Similarly, at bars, you get to know the bar tenders and owners pretty quickly, which never hurts.  The one thing that sucks, is any place that is "cool" gets flooded with Quickenbros within six months.  Now, if you are someone who wants to eat at a different place every time you go out, then Detroit isn't the place for you.  There are probably 10-15 nice places for dinner that I would recommend, another 12-18 that I would recommend for less expensive dinner spots, 5-7 brunch places, 5-10 lunch spots, and that is it.  Same thing goes for bars.  If you like local music scenes and/or electronic music, Detroit is very underrated.  I see great music all the time.  National acts, not as great as other spots. 

Schools is the tricky one. The public schools here are pretty bad. I imagine you will start seeing more private school options as more and more young people are moving back into the city.  We don't have kids yet, but we are kind of banking on this should we decide to have kids.  In the case there isn't, I think we would probably look to Grosse Pointe private school options or do some due diligence on the charter schools in the area. 

TLDR: Detroit is not for everyone, but if you have ties to Michigan and like city living it's a great option.  Rents are getting a bit high, relative to old Detroit rents but not to other cities, but there are still great deals for people looking to buy homes close to Downtown.           

sbeck04

December 10th, 2018 at 2:20 PM ^

Detroit is never “coming back” in a way comparable to the other cities you listed.  I mean seven of those cities rank in the global crane index.  Detroit is just too big - the tax revenue of the recovering neighborhoods is too diluted to make the fixes that would attract the people that need encouraging.  But it’s perfectly well back for the people who want to be a part of the recovery or get a good job offer, etc.  It was a tough decision for me between Seattle and Detroit, which Detroit ultimately lost. 

Also, LOL at the people upset by 1,500 rent.  

 

MGoShorts

December 10th, 2018 at 2:21 PM ^

A bit of both. I work downtown for a large company (not Quicken Loans) and live in a pretty nice one-bedroom for under $1,200. I've never once witnessed a crime in my 3+ years working and living in the area, and I'm a little sick of those who assume they'll be mugged walking from Wright and Co. to their car. Get over yourselves.

All that said, anyone who expects Detroit to suddenly turn into a true big city has their head up their ass. The revival about Detroit isn't about it becoming a top 5 city again, yet so many (like the OP) are quick to compare it to mega cities like Chicago. It will never be a mega city again.

The revival is about the downtown area becoming livable again (which it definitely is), and the general vibe around the city. There are a lot of cool restaurants to go to, and new ones seem to open monthly. The bar scene is picking up - and you can get a beer for $5 or less at most of them, unlike every other major city, where you're likely to shell out $9+ for a Bud fucking Light. And companies are starting to rally around as well, which gives you some options if you're a well-qualified candidate.

If you have some perspective and stop expecting Detroit to become Chicago 2.0, then yes, the revival is real. If you're looking for pristine housing and five-star meals.... well, yeah, look elsewhere, duh.

chuck bass

December 10th, 2018 at 2:49 PM ^

Chicago comparisons are frequent because it's only three to four hours west and has been a top destination of UM and MSU grads for the last 25 years. When it comes to major cities, Chicago isn't very intimidating, it's approachable with dozens of thriving neighborhoods from ritzy to fairly affordable. So if a 20-something kid seeks a Midwestern city within driving distance of family, Detroit will always be competing against the Windy City, and also with burgeoning Grand Rapids and Ann Arbor. When a young grad does an objective cost-benefit analysis with Chicago, GR, A2 and Detroit, it's challenging to see how Detroit wins.

BillyOcean

December 10th, 2018 at 2:24 PM ^

Detroit is full of Hipsters from the suburbs opening up breweries and useless art galleries. Meanwhile crime sucks.. Neighborhoods are still full of crack and burned down houses. School system is garbage So the actual people of Detroit are still going through shit for the past 50 plus years. While the folks from the burbs go downtown..scream I'm from Detroit and we are on a comeback .Laughable.

mgobaran

December 10th, 2018 at 4:55 PM ^

I don't get this mindset. There could be no hipsters downtown and no investment in the city. Would Detroit be better off if the downtown area was not thriving? The neighborhoods and school system aren't going to get better without tax revenue, and at the very least those hipsters who moved downtown from the burbs are providing that. 

 

uminks

December 10th, 2018 at 2:27 PM ^

In the 30s and 40s Detroit was expanding and in 1960 the population was over 2M ( the 4th largest city in the US at t he time) and the area of city limits fit the population. Now the population is probably under 300K and the city size should be shrunk. Change the western and northern portions to farm land and golf courses. I remember back in the 70s, before silicon valley exploded, there were plans to create high tech corridors from Ann Arbor to Detroit, Detroit to Flint and then Flint to Ann Arbor, generally the I-94, I-75 and US23. I don't know why this plan was not followed through but it would have been great for Detroit and SE Michigan if the money was invested in such a high tech triangle back in the late 70s.

Night_King

December 10th, 2018 at 2:32 PM ^

Curious where you are getting 25k layoffs at Ford?? You realize even if that happened, a lot of them would be in Europe and other regions where people don't live in Detroit.... 

uminks

December 10th, 2018 at 2:34 PM ^

I have not lived in SE Michigan since 1989 but I thought the casinos were suppose to revitalize the city. How are the casinos working out?  Have they made a difference? Now I read about how the hipsters have moved in, and have been revitalizing the downtown, with new bars and restaurants. I read several years ago that Greektown district was being revitalized? Are all these revitalized areas connected. I have not been to downtown Detroit since the mid 80s.

Motives

December 10th, 2018 at 2:36 PM ^

Just look at the leadership that keeps getting elected in Detroit, corruption over the years has destroyed the city.

Catchafire

December 10th, 2018 at 2:46 PM ^

I'm bullish on DOWNTOWN Detroit making a comeback but not the surrounding areas.  That is a key and important distinction to make.  There isn't a robust economy to support the middle class as there once was.  It's a pity Amazon didn't have a headquarter in Detroit because that would have helped.

So no, I'm not bullish about Detroit's comeback.  Downtown is booming though.

bronxblue

December 10th, 2018 at 3:36 PM ^

Amazon moving to Detroit (or really anywhere other than D.C. and NYC) was never in the cards, and it's probably for the better.  It's a company that demands a TON of incentives and breaks and, honestly, doesn't provide a huge influx of cash into the community.  Would it bring in some high-paying jobs?  Sure.  But cities like Detroit (and similarly decent-sized but not huge cities) shouldn't spend time trying to entice a couple hundred jobs from major organizations via a slew of tax breaks and the like.  They should focus on building up local businesses that can grow into larger employers.  VC funding is hyper-centered on SV and the Acella corridor in the Northeast, but there are pockets of tech (like battery/energy and industry/automation) where Detroit could succeed at getting a foothold in.  To me, that's a way to rebuild a city that leverages what you have locally and doesn't just chase a company that'll replace 85% of its employees with drones within 10 years or whatever Bezos has in mind.