[Patrick Barron]

The Explanation Comment Count

Brian November 26th, 2018 at 11:03 AM

11/24/2018 – Michigan 39, Ohio State 62 – 10-2, 8-1 Big Ten

From the start this blog has sought to detach itself from the furies of gameday. This column shows up Monday noonish and is thus the last one to appear. It usually tries to get a grip on the emotional tenor of what happened once whatever red mists have passed. Most games that are not abject humiliations are broken down play-by-play in an attempt to explain what actually happened, and gesture towards why.

So it's natural that people would ask me what happened; I am a person who would be able to venture some guess as to what caused the #1 defense in the country to give up 700 yards and more points than Michigan ever had to Ohio State. And, sure, there are some answers to be had. Ohio State ruthlessly exploited Brandon Watson and Devin Gil. Michigan's game plan was terrible because when you're the #1 defense in the country it's impossible to think your approach needs to be entirely different.

But these are weak justifications for the towering, Lovecraftian whole. They do not begin to explain what happened on Saturday. I struggled to put together anything that would be remotely satisfying. Then I figured it out: the fact that makes all the puzzle pieces slot together.

This is Hell.

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[Bryan Fuller]

I am being punished for some sin so colossal that it justifies me reliving my life over and over again, except the end of every football season has been replaced with every flavor of pain football can hand out. This may be my sin, and the simulation will reveal it to me at the very end. I will be permitted a brief moment of knowing the totality of my existence before being thrown back into the rebooted whole.

Or I may be a person who has committed grievous crimes against football and is being punished by living through this existence as someone who holds my true self in utter contempt. This would in fact be justice for Jim Delany's sordid existence: to bear the brunt of every money-grubbing decision on an annual basis and then get a metaphorical kick to the junk so powerful it might as well be real. The reveal at the end, as I download this into whatever qualifies as a soul before being moving into another college football fan, would be the kind of devastation that you really rely on Hell to dish out.

Other candidates to be placed in this particular hell include everyone involved with replacing Pitbull with Larry Culpepper, that one FOX executive who surrounded himself with prophylactic pictures of his kids and sexually harassed his way out of a job, and people who post pictures of their dogs with captions like "OHHHH WHO'S A GOOD DOGGO" somewhere other than Instagram.

So, good news: you don't exist. Or bad news: if the demons have decided that they can cram all of the above into the same simulation for efficiency's sake, your existence implies that you have sinned powerfully and long, and respite is not coming.

But they messed up, you see. I don't buy this latest one. Oh, I was willing to accept the one where the quarterback breaks his foot in the middle of the game and still nearly carries Michigan to a win, even though the offensive coordinator called the same play he had on before after an OSU timeout. I was willing to accept the one lost by a literal unknowable inch. I was willing to accept DJ Durkin checking out a week early and not being too bright to start with.

I don't buy this one. The one where Ohio State fires one of their coaches for abusing his wife before the season, and Urban Meyer skates. The one where Ohio State loses by 29 to Purdue and barely squeaks out victories over half the Big Ten that Michigan is simultaneously paving. The one where the same team that came one three yard pass to a wide open receiver away from losing to Maryland waltzes through, yes, the #1 defense in the country like it is not there. I know, now. I know this is not a random universe that happens to fall into a maximally painful configuration. I know this is one specifically directed to cause pain, and in that knowledge is… well, not exactly power, but mitigation.

I know what's coming, now, Satan. Bring it on.

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[Patrick Barron]

Comments

1464

November 26th, 2018 at 12:03 PM ^

I think we simply reorganize the games into the circles of Dante's Inferno.  This was definitely the 8th circle, fraud.  Or defense was exposed as a fraudulent #1.  The good news, is that means we only have one more level of pain.  Bad news is that we may experience such pain in the last circle that we all throw our toasters into the bathwater...

Crisler 71

November 26th, 2018 at 11:18 AM ^

How about OSU spending 5 weeks prepping for UM and skating by the rest of the inferior teams on talent alone.  Would exlain how they recognized blitz packages and always knew who to block, where all M's defensive weaknesses were and how to exploit them whenever possible, the defensive backfield suddenly knowing exactly where to be, the loss to Purdue and why they didn't blow out inferior teams.

bostonsix

November 27th, 2018 at 12:05 AM ^

I hope you are right. I'd love to hear our coaches say this, rather than another player "guaranteeing" another victory as the coaches sit "nervously" waiting for their players to make their dreams come true. 

They need to get these kids up to play, on the road, big games, but most of all, FOR THE GAME!

dragonchild

November 26th, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^

If that was the case they were playing with fire a little too much for Occam's Razor.

The explanation I offer -- which of course I can't prove -- is tribalism.  Everything we saw from the outside was real -- the lack of cohesion, the lack of focus, the team scraping by inferior opponents, Meyer looking like he was going to puke.  IF we played the Ohio State team that everyone else had the luxury of playing, OSU wouldn't have had a chance.

The simplest reason is that we didn't play that team.  This was the game that everyone who signs a letter of intent to OSU gets up for.  This was the game that, even if the players and coaches all hate each other, will bond for a single game without a word of pep talk from Urban Meyer.  It's common knowledge that Michigan always gets their opponents' A-game, but The Game is always terrifying because one side or other will invariably have an epiphany and realize its full potential, whether it's implosion under Cooper or a transcendental performance under Meyer.

Ohio State WITH all its problems is still a Top Ten team; when those vanish you see all that Top-100 recruit talent unleashed at once.  That team Michigan faced on Saturday spent the whole season farting around in their own BPONE of dysfunction, going as far as their best player shutting it down for the season and the coach clearly wondering if he was going to lose his job, but last Saturday they got the sense of cohesion realized when a grass-wearing tribe's internal petty disagreements vanish upon seeing an existential threat.  It's stupid, because it's not really a point in their favor, but unfortunately Michigan is always the victim of this circumstance.

dragonchild

November 26th, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^

In terms of player motivation, sure.  But there's evidence Dantonio prepares the hell out of the Michigan game, even at the cost of losing some games.  There's only spotty evidence that OSU is as obsessed, at least the coaches.  Meyer has damn near dorfed some Michigan games if not for Michigan dorfing them even harder.  No, I think all the circumstantial evidence we saw that he was losing control of his program was real, except the naivete on our part was that would be a factor at all in the Michigan game.  This is the game they'd give their all for even if the players happen to hate Meyer to his core (we don't know that's the case, but my point is it wouldn't matter anyway).

The flip side of it is something of a hot take, which is that -- with a few obvious exceptions -- I don't think Michigan is nearly as talented as their statistics indicate.  This is NOT to say those statistics lie -- they were in fact the #1 defense.  If anything that's proof of our excellent coaching staff, and the effort of the players.  They play at an elite level by getting the absolute most of their ability, by practicing hard with great coaching.  But the sad reality is that when you face a bunch of genetic lottery winners who fart around for half a season until they decide to give it all at once, you're always going to be a heart-breaking step slow or a foot-pound short of making those plays you made all season.  Folks keep saying Michigan doesn't take OSU seriously enough but that take lacks perspective -- our guys give their all almost every game.  How much more effort do they have to give for The Game?

Make no mistake, Don Brown is more than acquainted with despair-inducing talent gaps and he has a thousand answers for them.  But he's never seen vastly superior talent converge against him the way OSU does against Michigan; BC has never been under that sort of pressure.  I honestly don't know if there's any answer for it at all, except maybe generational talent like Charles Woodson or Mo Hurst.

gbdub

November 26th, 2018 at 3:54 PM ^

The fact that Don Brown is used to playing against superior talent is what really confounded me about this game. Was the talent gap between OSU and M's defense really as big as some of the teams Don Brown's BC had to deal with? I don't think so - but I don't think Don Brown called this game the way he called a BC game. If we'd used a BC scheme with Michigan's talent, I think we'd have had a much better chance in this game. Instead Brown seemed to stubbornly stick with the assumption we could beat OSU straight up with 4 man rush and all man coverage.

I wonder if the relative closeness of the game at the half lulled them a bit - that really should have been desperation time from the get go. Pulling Gil and subbing Ambry in for Watson seem like they should have been no brainers. Desperate? Maybe, but by that point it should have been clear that the starters were getting straight beat without really busting, and we needed some more speed out there.

mgoblue98

November 26th, 2018 at 9:59 PM ^

I think the score was 27-19 with like 4:30 left in the 3rd quarter.  

That being said, I thought Michigan was screwed when Ohio State drove the field with just over 40 seconds left before half time and didn't have to use their time outs.  It was luck that they had to settle for a FG.

I would love to know why Gil is playing ILO Ross.  I am also curious as to how much blitzing Michigan did.  I remember a few, but they were in the 2nd half.  One ended up as a TD because Watson stumbled over grass trying to cover a corner route.

I really don't understand how the Ohio State OL went from a unit with 4 question marks to looking like the best OL ever.

FrankMurphy

November 26th, 2018 at 11:48 AM ^

I think Michigan is no different in that regard, and I have no doubt that our players came out every bit as fired up and dialed-in as theirs. The problem is that our version of an A-game seems to be nothing more than just trying extra super hard. Their version of an A-game is studying Michigan obsessively, finding every weakness, and preparing a gameplan full of surprises and never-before-seen plays that exploits those weaknesses to maximum effect. 

The take home is that after all these years and a reign of dominance that's nearly entering its third decade, Ohio State still treats this game like it's the Super Bowl against the '72 Dolphins. In contrast, despite disappointment after disappointment, we still treat this game like we're Ohio State's equal and expect to win by using the same gameplan we've used all season and just trying extra super hard this time. 

mGrowOld

November 26th, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^

I'm not so sure about that.  When asked about the practices the week before this game Patterson said they were "nothing special".  OSU on the other hand DOES devote a section of each practice from the first day of spring ball to the Friday before the game to us.  It is their entire universe and they treat it as such.  

I know he get really, really hammered here for saying it but maybe Sir Charles was right.  Maybe we dont take this game serious enough or at least not serious enough to win when faced with a very talented opponent who plays like the lives of their family members depended on victory.

Edit: Upon re-reading your post I see where you're actually making the same point I made.  Sorry i missed it the first time.

gustave ferbert

November 26th, 2018 at 1:20 PM ^

If John Harbaugh loses his job, he can take a year off and do nothing but team up with the patriarch Jack and study Ohio state.  let that be their mission.  A super bowl champion, doing nothing but spend his workday to Ohio State.  And he's loaded and do it for free, and technically wouldn't be an employee of the university. . . Or maybe give him a GA position and get a master's degree. 

 

If Steinbrenner can buy Drew Henson off the field, it's the least that Harbaugh can do with his pedigree to make this happen.  

trueblueintexas

November 26th, 2018 at 1:59 PM ^

Their version of an A-game is studying Michigan obsessively, finding every weakness, and preparing a gameplan full of surprises and never-before-seen plays that exploits those weaknesses to maximum effect. 

 

My immediate thought, and 48 hours later still my take, is that this game was on the coaches. The players played very hard for the first three quarters. I didn't see huge mental mistakes or lack of effort. OSU had a great game plan to start and Michigan did not. Once things got going, OSU had great adjustments and Michigan did not. That is all on the coaches and I think it absolutely sucks for the players. 

Harbaugh said they have to take responsibility for it during the post game press conference. I really hope a reporter follows up on that today and asks Harbaugh what that looks like. I also hope they ask him what it is going to take for him to lead a team to victory against OSU. 

gbdub

November 26th, 2018 at 4:10 PM ^

OSU didn't break out anything new or surprising for this game. They just finally played up to the capability of their talent level. Their offense has been killer all year, but prone to bogging down from poor execution. Their defense has tons of talent but was undisciplined.

I think it's a mistake to see a team playing way better against their rivals as a good thing. That's a mark of crappy discipline, a team that doesn't put in effort week in and week out. MSU doesn't play "up" for Michigan - they play down to the rest of their competition. Which is why they tend to fall apart if they lose to Michigan.

OSU didn't play "up" to Michigan. They sleep-walked through their season and took a crappy loss, then finally played the way they should have played all year because their coach can't motivate them anymore, only The Game can.

Hell, look at the old Hoke teams that always seemed to play out of their minds against OSU. Was it a good thing that his teams played better against OSU than they did against Akron? Of course not. Teams that play close to their potential don't "get up" for rivalry games because they are "up" every week.

Unfortunately the reality is that Michigan's A game is not at the level of OSU's A game. That would have been obvious if we'd seen OSU's A game all year. To the extent that this wasn't Michigan's A game, it seemed more like it was nerves from the pressure and hostile environment - TOO MUCH amped up, if anything. Treating a game as special can get in your head in a bad way too.

Rafiki

November 26th, 2018 at 4:43 PM ^

So much this. Going in to the season the talk was Haskins was going to be better than Barrett and after the first few games osu looked like a top 2-3 team especially on offense. And then they started looking disorganized and Purdue happened. But the team that was preseason top 3 was still there. They just didn’t turn it on until the last weekend. What will be interesting is if despite thrashing UM osu missea out on the playoff because of the L to Purdue and how they looked for most of the season.

I think Haskins is one of the best pocket passers there has been in cfb for a while. When you have a qb like that in an offense like osu they’re hard to stop. This is true in the NFL too. Osu offense this year was probably as good as their NC winning one with Elliott. Martell doesn’t seem to be the same type of player though so I wouldn’t expect their offense to look this good after Haskins is gone. 

dragonchild

November 26th, 2018 at 8:29 PM ^

Precisely. OSU played one game at 100% this year. NFL is gonna love those guys but I understand why their fans were so infuriated by the Purdue game. Their players lack maturity. Unfortunately that wasn’t going to be a problem against us, but god what a bunch of crapheads that don’t deserve their blessed talent.

MerryMarkley77

November 26th, 2018 at 10:25 PM ^

Really like this take.  It explains the game this year and why Hoke's teams seemed best against OSU and struggled the rest of the year.  I do think our current coaches have instilled a discipline and work ethic that shows up in every game.  I do think they got rattled a bit, though, as the game progressed on Saturday.  Still don't know how OSU's o-line suddenly got so good to prevent any sacks or even many hurries.  Haskins is much less accurate when pressured.  Your theory does explain their o-line performance, though, as anomaly created by the rivalry.

Fezzik

November 26th, 2018 at 7:34 PM ^

I don't think their game plan was surprising or unique by any means. They ran the same plays I've seen from them in other games I watched this year. I, as a fan, fully expected tons of crossing routes and short quick passes. It's a core concept of their offense. So there is no way our coaches were caught off guard by their play calling. I believe we just over estimated some of our players abilities. I think Brown was 100% confident in Watson being able to hang with their speedsters in man to man. Our LBs on RBs in coverage is just a weakness by design in Brown's defense. People here use to always complain about McCray on RBs too. It's just a natural mismatch.

I am surprised Jim thought the same offense that we had all year was going to be enough this game. We tweaked minor things for this game but had absolutely nothing hidden up our sleeve. We have no creativity on our offensive staff. Last year we abused the osu D with counters and misdirection. Where the hell was that this year? 

Why wasn't Watson and Gil pulled for Ambry and Ross while at the same time Tru is taking carries away from Higdon and McCurry is taking targets away from DPJ, Collins, or Black? These substitutions and lack there of literally helped osu, not us. Is our staff over thinking things or what?

mgoblue98

November 26th, 2018 at 10:09 PM ^

Michigan also got a ton of LB on RB coverage and was able to complete some slants on them.

I agree with a lot of what you say, but in my opinion Michigan's coaches overestimated the DL and underestimated Ohio State based on the film review and results against teams that Michigan beat the breaks off of.

Chris S

November 26th, 2018 at 12:12 PM ^

Right on my man. I agree completely. I think Michigan solidified itself as a perennial second-tier team with their performance this season. They're in a class with LSU, Notre Dame, Georgia, and Oklahoma. The problem with us is the same as LSU - we're in the same division of a program that's truly elite and has been for some time.

Bama, Clemson, and Ohio State are the three "elite" programs in college football. When they play their best game of the season, it looks like this. Michigan played average, or slightly above. OSU played up to their potential. It happens and it also blows.

ALeafOnTheWind

November 26th, 2018 at 2:14 PM ^

I was just about ready to agree with this take, and it's been my opinion ever since the punt block TD on Saturday. But I keep watching this take include the idea of Clemson as an elite program, and that's ultimately what's changed my perspective. Clemson *is* an elite program this year and we aren't. For Swinney's first few years there, though, they were synonymous with blowing the big game, not getting over the hump. Those days are over now.

When Harbaugh got here he talked about building a callus. I figured that just meant building physical toughness over the course of a season and finishing games strong. Nope. I never before believed the stuff about mental toughness, honestly, and that was naive. Harbaugh is in a multi-year process of getting the players in this program, this program's culture, into a championship mentality. We thought they were there, and they probably thought they were there. Then, suddenly, we emphatically discovered they weren't.

It'll be harder for us than for Clemson because we have OSU in our division. It might not happen at all, and we might have a program ceiling of 9-win averages with a win over OSU once every 4-5 years. But getting to that point is still on the table.

ALeafOnTheWind

November 26th, 2018 at 8:18 PM ^

I'm sympathetic to the "But they pay players, and we won't" argument. I do think it has limitations in this case.

Clemson's recruiting wasn't close to the level that OSU or Bama had in the five years prior to their national championship. Their recruiting rankings according to 247 in the five years leading up to their championship: 10, 20, 15, 16, 9. Michigan's leading up to 2018: 20, 37, 8, 5, 22. (The 37 ranking was Harbaugh's first class, when he was hired late in the cycle. If we continue to sit around 22, your argument would be very persuasive. Our 2019 class is currently ranked 8.)

Michigan: median 20, mean 18.4, st. dev. ~ 11.4

Clemson: median 15, mean 14, st. dev ~ 4.5

If Michigan holds at 8, the same numbers for 2019 would be: 8, 16, 13.5.

If Michigan landed a Harbaugh-average class ranked around 12, the numbers would be: 12, 16.8, 13.0.

(OSU's last five years? 3, 7, 4, 2, 2. median 3, average 3.6, sd 2.1; In the years leading up to Clemson's demolition of OSU, their numbers were 17/14.2/4.3, and OSU's were 4/4.2/1.9, giving OSU a big recruiting advantage to match their big playoff-game deficit.)

So class-to-class variability is high, partly due to Hoke, but if we keep recruiting at a typical Harbaugh level the numbers aren't terribly different. This is obviously based on very naive statistics--among many other things, we're not likely to see the kind of variability in rankings we've had, but who knows whether we'll settle into the low-20s or the 5-10 range--but as a first approximation it doesn't seem like Clemson's recruiting prior to winning the NC was overwhelmingly better than what Michigan should expect.

Does anyone have a massive corrective to slap me down with this? If so, I'd be interested. As a pessimist, I'd prefer to believe we have no shot. Makes things easier.

Winning Wolverines

November 26th, 2018 at 5:52 PM ^

If Michigan keeps improving at the pace they have since Jim Harbaugh arrived, they will get to that Championship level we all desire.  1991 analogy is excellent.  Jim Harbaugh hates to lose.  I believe he will continue to make adjustments until the Team succeeds.  Right now I believe he is re-evaluating everything including coaching, game plans, schemes, talent, etc.. I believe Don Brown is doing the same thing.  I also believe that the better we get, the more pressure Urban Meyer is going to feel, and unless he is able to change how he responds to pressure, he won't be around long term.  

Carcajou

November 26th, 2018 at 3:54 PM ^

Michigan played average, or slightly above.

 

 I thought Michigan played below their season average, especially on defense. I had to check numbers to see who was in there. Michigan's defense for most of the season  (except for Notre Dame) was flying around, confident. Saturday they often looked lethargic and unsure. I realize the speed of the opponent had something to do with that, but I honestly worried that the whole team had come down with the flu.

Durham Blue

November 26th, 2018 at 12:36 PM ^

This is a great post.  I made a similar point in a different thread that OSU doesn't need extra motivation to play at MAX potential ludicrous speed in the Michigan game (referencing Higdon's quasi-guarantee).  Under Meyer we will always and forever get OSU's best game.  And their best game is probably (likely) better than our best game at this point.  And we did not play even close to our best game, from the coaches on down.  And that's a fucking shame and major bummer.