Rob Mullins (Oregon AD), Playoff Committee Chairman Interview w/ Ryen Russillo
Probably not a ton of new information but at least there's some explanation for LSU.
- Committee believes LSU is a better team than Washington State, Ohio State, and West Virginia, thus their ranking (base their rankings on if Team A can beat Team B).
- Committee resets each week with deep dive analysis comparing top teams. Will reset next week. (This is important for Michigan because they could potentially have a conference championship game whereas Notre Dame will not).
- Measures Head to Head, Strength of Schedule, and Conference Championships.
- The committee loves Michigan's defense, having the #1 unit could certainly help them stay in the top 4.
November 7th, 2018 at 2:09 PM ^
8 would be my preference also. I’d love to guarantee a spot or two for non-power conferences If they reach some benchmark. Like undefeated + at least one win over a bowl eligible P5 school.
And for for those that honestly believe 16 games is too many...schools aren’t required to play 12 regular season games. Drop one of the cup cakes if you’re so worried about it.
November 7th, 2018 at 2:20 PM ^
It's so friggin' obvious. Can't wait until 2024.
November 7th, 2018 at 2:43 PM ^
If you want 8 team playoff asap, the best way to do is to root for UCF to go undefeated and win the NY6 bowl game again. It strengthen the G5's argument that they are unfairly punished for not being a P5 school and they should get a fair chance or otherwise, the playoff is just an invitational for the P5 schools.
November 7th, 2018 at 3:02 PM ^
Agreed. Same goes if they leave a 1-loss B1G champ and/or a 1-loss Big XII champ out to cram in two SEC teams.
Then it becomes not only a P5 invitational, but an SEC invitational and I think all hell would break loose. You can piss on UCF and point at their schedule. When you're excluding a blue-blood Michigan or Oklahoma, now you're playing with fire. For that reason, I don't buy the paranoia at all. That would be a disaster for the CFP.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:26 PM ^
LSU is 22nd in S&P.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:36 PM ^
And #7 in 'Resume S&P+'. There's a difference. If you're evaluating resume as it pertains to current rankings, and not trying to use it to predict the future, you want Resume S&P+.
*This is not a post in support of LSU. Just trying to enlighten the bum.
November 7th, 2018 at 2:31 PM ^
But the committee member questioned here said they thought LSU was better than those teams, not that they had a better resume.
November 7th, 2018 at 3:04 PM ^
Okay.
I was explaining to enlightenedbum that S&P+ and Resume S&P+ are two different things.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:31 PM ^
The committee is a money making enterprise just like everything else related to college football. They do not have a specific bias for the SEC, they just see that as a means to an end. Michigan brings plenty of money along with them and will be in the playoff if they win out. Besides, no one is beating Alabama. They will dispatch Georgia just like they did last week with LSU, which was the chicken little team du jour prior to Georgia.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^
I don't think this is as complicated as two posts today seem to suggest.
If UM wins out through B1G championship, UM is going to the playoff. Theories and other BS about what may be happening in the background w/ the SEC and otherwise won't matter. If we don't win out, the playoff is out of the question, as it should be.
If UM holds on through the B1G championship, people will be drooling to see the defense take on Bama. And if the defense can stay healthy, we may be the only team in the country w/ a puncher's chance against Bama's offense.
My main concern would be whether UM's offense could sustain drives long enough to keep our defense rested enough to avoid complete exhaustion by 4th quarter.
November 7th, 2018 at 2:14 PM ^
Georgia beats Bama then we are gonna be left out in the cold even if we win out. No way Bama goes to 5 with a loss
November 7th, 2018 at 3:28 PM ^
"No way" they go to 5? We'll probably never know, but I don't know how you are so certain.
Rece Davis and most of the ESPN panel seem to disagree. They think Michigan controls their destiny, and Alabama would drop to 5 with a loss. I wish that didn't matter, but it does.
Georgia isn't beating Alabama -- just like LSU wasn't beating them -- but if they do, Alabama will no longer be seen as invincible. And their schedule isn't strong enough to shut out three Power 5 conference from the playoff.
The fact that Harbaugh/Michigan will be a ratings bonanza doesn't hurt.
November 7th, 2018 at 7:51 PM ^
Precedent has already been set last year. They can and will have Alabama in the playoff. ESPN is already spinning that there is no other answer than Michigan being left out in favor of Alabama.
I think the only hope would be that the committee considers Michigan's Conference Championship and NDs head to head win at the beginning of the year as offsetting variables and evaluates Michigan vs. ND based on today.
November 7th, 2018 at 2:18 PM ^
Oklahoma could jump Michigan, I don't know why people don't think that is possible when we are going to be playing a 7-5 NW in the championship game.
November 7th, 2018 at 2:32 PM ^
Michigan will have a FAR better 'resume' than Oklahoma, including a fresh win over a top 10 (top 15 at the lowest) OSU in Columbus. OK won't be jumping anybody unless UM has a couple of close calls.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:41 PM ^
Style points matter more than ever. Could use a repeat of 78-0.
If Michigan does win out, do we expect Gene Smith to fight for Michigan on the committee? We do have a former Michigan football player on the committee in Herb Deromedi, so I hope he can counter any resistance from Gene Smith.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:52 PM ^
I agree about style points. Which is why I think we should really run it up on Rutger and Indiana. And OSU, if we can.
But because I live in BPONE, I'll admit to being worried that Harbaugh is ok with 21-10 wins. God I hope Rutger players chirp this week.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:54 PM ^
Harbaugh is OK with 21-0 wins. 21-10 would raise his ire a little.
November 7th, 2018 at 3:44 PM ^
Fortunately, even if Harbaugh is okay with 21-10 wins, sometimes those vanilla game plans still turn into 78-0 wins.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:51 PM ^
The implications of the logic in putting LSU above some of the one loss teams are a little shocking. Does this mean Alabama is basically a lock for the playoff even if they lose 1 or 2 games because the committee thinks they’re better than some other teams? They certainly leave that door open
November 7th, 2018 at 7:59 PM ^
The explanation for LSU was the committee thinks they are better than OSU, WSU, etc. I am sure they had data to back it up, but I hate the subjective sound of that when comparing how a 2 loss team should be in front of 1 loss teams.
The justification is based on the wins against over ranked teams from the SEC. It is totally self fulfilling. It is already baked in to the equation.
November 8th, 2018 at 3:59 PM ^
There is no "data". It is just the standard "SEC IS AWESOME" BS.
November 7th, 2018 at 2:10 PM ^
Fivethirtyeight has a projection for if teams win out, their model has a 1 loss OU in over a 1 loss Michigan. That is the scenario that terrifies me.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/
November 7th, 2018 at 3:16 PM ^
I don't know how 538 can have a computer model for the contents of the heads of 13 flawed, biased humans. Does it work in Frank Beamer's ACC bias and Gene Smith's aversion to the color blue?
November 7th, 2018 at 2:13 PM ^
If we win out and Georgia beats Bama we could still be left out guys. Just saying it’s a very very good possibility we are #5 when this is all over if we continue to win. We need Bama to beat Georgia and beat them good.
November 7th, 2018 at 2:37 PM ^
For the record, I, like the committee, love UM's stifling, smothering D
November 7th, 2018 at 2:40 PM ^
Username checks...
November 8th, 2018 at 2:28 PM ^
It's not a very, very good possibility unless you think ~4% is likely.
FOUR things would HAVE to happen for 2 SEC teams to even have a chance to make it over Michigan: Clemson wins out (68% chance per 538), ND wins out (49%) and UGA wins out (27%). Bama wins its next three games (75%).
ALL FOUR of those things happening is a 0.68*0.49*0.27*0.75 = 6.7% chance.
THEN, the committee would have to select 12-1 Alabama which didn't win its conference over Michigan which did win its conference and will have played a more difficult schedule (although probably only marginally by the time Bama plays UGA and Michigan plays Rutger, IU and whatever pile of poo the West sends to the title game).
Let's say conservatively there's a 60% chance the committee selects Bama. That's about a 4% chance of Michigan being left out in favor of a second SEC team.
This is not something people should be freaking out about (*cough*, MGrowOld, *cough*).
November 7th, 2018 at 2:39 PM ^
First, nice summary in the OP, OP!!
Second, if UM wins out, they're in the playoff regardless of what anyone else does.
The committee ranks teams in 4-team pods - so they take the first group of teams (6-8 teams), rank them 1-4, and move on to the next group. So, in the specific case of LSU, they were probably grouped in the first tier to be rated, but didn't make the first four. So they're included in the next group (say LSU, UGA, WVU, OSU, WSU, OK). In that group, they are considered the 3rd best team - so get placed at #7. Then they move on to the next group of 4 to be ranked, and so on...
There is no conspiracy to slot two SEC teams above three Conference Champions. JFC. The tin foil crowd is out in force today!
November 7th, 2018 at 2:52 PM ^
Weed is legal now. Expect paranoia from now on.
November 7th, 2018 at 2:55 PM ^
We often talk about how lazy the AP and Coaches are to have a string of undefeated teams followed by a a string of 1-lossers, and then 2-lossers. And that pattern is typically *only* broken by Go5 squads like UCF.
With that in mind, let's not revolt at the first sight of a mindful ranking just because it's mindful in a direction that's against us or our hunches.
LSU may well belong in the Top 8/10. And huffing over it seems to convenient and rife with cognitive dissonance to me. Just chill.
November 7th, 2018 at 6:25 PM ^
Agreed. So put 1 loss Michigan in the top 3.
November 7th, 2018 at 8:08 PM ^
LSU belongs based on who's opinion? They DIDN'T Score a point against Alabama while playing at Home. Lesser teams have scored on Bama. Stop the perpetual over ranking of SEC teams! It is so inbred into the logic you might as well pencil in 2 SEC teams every year.
My question is why bother having a Playoff if you are going to seed half the field with SEC teams every year. This is just another failure!
November 7th, 2018 at 9:27 PM ^
How about at second sight? Seeing as this is the second week in a row they have eyebrow raising rankings for ACC and SEC teams.
November 7th, 2018 at 3:30 PM ^
Whenever I hear about the selection committee I always think of the movie "12 Angry Men".
November 7th, 2018 at 5:07 PM ^
This is fun to talk about! I love that Michigan is back to a place where we are relevant to the playoff discussion.
November 7th, 2018 at 5:22 PM ^
These committee rankings are only marginally less stupid than the BcS crap.
It should be so damn simple. Take the Power 5 conference champs. Let the committee pick the 3 at-large teams. Play an 8-team tournament.
I have no problem with the committee picking 3 at-large teams. Letting them assert their bias into the entire selection process is absurd.
November 7th, 2018 at 9:28 PM ^
Homefield advatange first round, with conference champs being given those slots exclusively.
November 7th, 2018 at 7:46 PM ^
The only way this thing ever has any credibility and eliminate teams in a particular conference being propped up by the subjective "eye test" is the 8 team model.
- 5 Conference Champs
- 3 at Large
It's that simple. If there are at large teams either inside or outside of a P5 Conference, they get a shot at 3 openings.
It gives each P5 Conference a fair shot and you can't argue that a legit champion was established.
Think of how ridiculous it would be if the Super Bowl Teams were chosen based on subjective measures from the same division in the NFL.
November 7th, 2018 at 8:01 PM ^
Georgia is not likely to win so it doesn't matter. However, if they do win then Notre Dame gets left out. Georgia is in the top 4 in most rankings but typically behind Michigan. The committee got the list correct at this time except there is no reason for the ACC teams to be ranked that high. Notre Dame crushing Syracuse may fix that.
If Michigan wins out then it is hard to imagine a scenario where they can justify keeping them out. I suppose ND is keeping their offense under wraps but then it took two key DB injuries for them to get by NW.
November 7th, 2018 at 8:13 PM ^
Michigan gets in past ND if the committee values Conference Championships and the "eye test" over the head to head win by ND. They would have to want to penalize ND the same way they did TCU when OSU got in for not being a part of a Conference Championship Game.
It may be possible and it WOULD send a strong message that ND could not ignore.