B1G East Divisional Standings
Thought it would be useful to pause and take a look at the standings and elimination scenarios for the coming week. First the standings (including conference record):
1. Michigan (5-0)
2. OSU (4-1)
3. Maryland (3-2)
3. Penn State (3-2)
3. MSU (3-2)
6. Indiana (1-5)
7. Rutger (0-5)
Indiana and Rutger have already been eliminated from contention in the division.
If Michigan wins, Penn State is eliminated from contention and the loser of Maryland-MSU is eliminated.
After this weekend, if Michigan wins, only Ohio State, Michigan, and the winner of Maryland-MSU will still be in contention to win the division.
October 29th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
Media doesn't vote in the CFP though.
October 29th, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^
True, but we can't pretend the media perception of teams doesn't have an impact on CFP voters.
October 29th, 2018 at 1:03 PM ^
Remember though, When Michigan lost to Iowa in 2016, they didn't drop in the CFP, but dropped in both polls.
October 29th, 2018 at 1:03 PM ^
But to think they have no impact on the committee is naive.
October 29th, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^
A lot of games left. Like every year, there will be some random losses. What if LSU beats Bama, but then loses to Georgia in the SEC championship game? The next month will be interesting.
October 29th, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^
LSU beating Bama and Georgia winning the SEC championship would be how I see two SEC teams in the playoff. ND and clemson would go. Everyone else would not.
I'm all for CFP, but would not be salty at Rose Bowl with a championship.
October 29th, 2018 at 2:21 PM ^
An 11-1 Bama will absolutely not be put in over a 12-1 conference champion. Full stop.
If they do though, there will be hell to pay. Things would change very quickly.
October 29th, 2018 at 4:23 PM ^
Didn't the CFP committee make a statement last year that while a conference championship help boost a resume, it does not necessarily guarantee a playoff berth? That they are charged with finding the "four best teams" regardless if they are conference champions or not.
If Alabama narrowly losses to LSU this week, and then wins out in dominant fashion, I can easily see the CFP committee deciding to throw in Alabama still over a 12-1 conference champ.
October 29th, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^
Well remember Bama only got in last year because OSU had 2 losses and 1 was really bad. In that scenario, Bama is likely out...
1 Clemson (I think if they lose a game, they would be left out in favor of Michigan AND Oklahoma. Their SOS is horrible)
2 LSU
3 ND - especially if NW wins the West
4 Michigan as they will have the better loss.
October 29th, 2018 at 12:34 PM ^
Indeed Clemson's SOS is horrible. If they lose one game (and unfortunately, they don't play anyone to make that look even remotely possible), they should drop out completely. Hell, I'd have to think about an undefeated Clemson vs. a one loss other major conference winner pretty closely.
October 29th, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^
My guess is OU and Michigan get left out in the above scenario. LSU, ND and Clemson would be locks. I would think Bama would get in over Michigan and OU assuming their loss at LSU wasn't super bad. I do think we would have the edge over OU as our loss is to a much better team than their loss and ours was on the road versus neutral site.
October 29th, 2018 at 12:44 PM ^
I don't think non-conference champ Bama gets in. We gotta remember that last year Bama got in as a 4 seed over Ohio State with 2 losses, one of which by 30(?) All things being equal Bama with one loss to LSU has a shitty resume and no conference title to lean on.
October 30th, 2018 at 2:22 AM ^
Sure, Alabama hasn't played a tough schedule, but they also have absolutely curb-stomped everyone they played. Does Tua even have a pass attempt in the 4th quarter yet?
If Alabama loses to LSU in a close match, and then goes on to win out while continuing to curb-stomp the piss out of the remaining teams... Does the CFP really leave them out?
I think at this point Nick Saban's reputation has built up so much leeway that most people just assume Alabama is at worst a top-4 team in the nation regardless of the results.
October 29th, 2018 at 12:47 PM ^
According to 538, if Michigan wins out, they have an 83% chance of making the playoffs. There are still 15 teams that could theoretically make the show under that scenario:
October 29th, 2018 at 1:23 PM ^
The chances of everybody above winning out is very slim. That entails 25-30 straight games where many will be competitive. According to 538's projections, it's about a 0.07% chance.
If Michigan wins out, the most relevant scenarios are where LSU, ND and Clemson win out and Bama has 1 loss. About 1% for that. Or where Bama, ND, Clemson and OU win out. That's about 2.5%.
October 29th, 2018 at 12:05 PM ^
if Michigan wins this weekend, and we assume they don't lose to Rutgers, it will be just Michigan and OSU left
October 29th, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^
Sending Penn State to 3-3 in the conference is going to be glorious.
October 29th, 2018 at 12:08 PM ^
there is an order to hatching chickens and then counting them.
lets hope you are correct re: sending PSU to 3-3.
October 29th, 2018 at 12:32 PM ^
Greetings from the alternate dimension, where icing your own kicker is good coaching. Where I'm from, we count first.
October 29th, 2018 at 12:40 PM ^
do you take a timeout during the counting? inquiring chickens want to know!
October 29th, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^
Only when the clock is already stopped, and I might need the timeout at some point in the near future.
October 29th, 2018 at 2:06 PM ^
Remember after the ND game when all the haters were throwing themselves off the cliff because Michigan was going to go 7-5 because no way we'd be able to beat Wisconsin, MSU, PSU, and OSU....somehow PSU wound up being the Division bitch this season.
October 29th, 2018 at 11:54 PM ^
Not “haters”. BPONE losers.
October 29th, 2018 at 12:21 PM ^
Wait, wait, wait. Maryland is still in the running?
October 29th, 2018 at 12:24 PM ^
Yes -- and if Michigan and Maryland both win this weekend, they will have sole possession of third with MSU and PSU both falling to 3-3.
October 29th, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^
Kinda. Their last four games are MSU, Indiana, Penn State and Ohio State. So not really.
October 29th, 2018 at 12:35 PM ^
For division, Michigan needs to beat OSU and win at least 2 of the next 3 games. Assuming wins against Indiana and Rutgers, the UM-PSU game only implications is for playoffs.
October 29th, 2018 at 12:49 PM ^
Correct, assuming OSU wins out. But if OSU were to lose to Nebraska or MSU, we’d already clinch the East by the OSU game if we beat PSU, Rutgers, and IU.
October 29th, 2018 at 12:38 PM ^
Consider the following rather ghoulish scenario:
Michigan loses to PSU and OSU, wins the rest
Michigan State wins the rest including against OSU
Penn State wins the rest
OSU wins the rest except for MSU
All four teams would be 7-2 in conference. First tiebreaker is record agaisnt each other. There Michigan and PSU drop out having gone 1-2 against the rest, whereas MSU and OSU went 2-1. With two teams remaining tied, the head-to-head results are examined, and your Big Ten East conference champion is... MSU.
October 29th, 2018 at 12:54 PM ^
Well, that's what they're talking about on the MSU forums and it's not totally far fetched. I was somewhat surprised when I read about that possible scenario yesterday.
October 29th, 2018 at 12:55 PM ^
Using Ecky Pting’s S&P+ game probabilities (from before this past weekend), there is about a 1 in 300 chance of that happening.
October 29th, 2018 at 3:43 PM ^
if MSU, Michigan , osu and psu all go 7-2 in the BIG, the head to heads won’t matter, they would cancel each other out....Michigan over MSU, MSU over Ohio state, Ohio state over Michigan, psu over Michigan etc...
...it goes then to division record. Michigan loses to penn state and loses to Ohio state that is 5-2 in the division...PSU goes 5-2with losses to MSU and osu, Ohio state loses to MSU but beats Michigan that is 6-1 in the division If MSU beats Ohio state that is 6-1 due to losing to Michigan in the division.
it then goes head to head MSU vs osu
October 29th, 2018 at 5:28 PM ^
You got the right answer, but how you got there was not correct
In any case of a 3+ team tiebreaker, the records of each team against the other tied teams will be compared against each other.
The final standings would be
1. MSU (2-1) (loss to Michigan, win over OSU/PSU)
2. OSU (2-1) (loss to MSU, win over Michigan/PSU)
3. PSU (1-2) (loss to OSU/MSU, win over Michigan)
4. Mich (1-2) (loss to PSU/OSU, win over MSU)
PSU and Mich get eliminated in this scenario immediately, forcing a two-way tie with MSU and OSU which is just a head-head tiebreaker, leaving MSU as the East Champ. PSU would have the win over Michigan, giving them the tiebreaker for 3rd (not that it really matters).
Say Michigan loses to PSU and OSU, MSU beats OSU, and PSU loses another game. Now we have a 3 way tie between MSU, OSU, and Michigan. The final standings would be
1. MSU
2. OSU
3. Michigan
In this instance, all three teams would be 1-1 against each other, and 7-2 in conference. Michigan is eliminated for having two East Division losses. After that, it become a normal head-head tiebreaker between OSU and MSU, which MSU would win.
I don't think either will happen, but it isn't the most far fetched thing in the world.
October 29th, 2018 at 10:04 PM ^
Yes sir you are correct! I forgot the records against each other instead of the head to head due to a 3 way tie.
October 29th, 2018 at 1:05 PM ^
Maryland. LOL.
Are they even in the BIG? If so, WHY??
October 29th, 2018 at 1:06 PM ^
Ruin PSU.
October 29th, 2018 at 1:12 PM ^
For UM to win the division:
- Win out
- Lose 1 game to PSU, IU, or Rutgers, and beat OSU
- Lose 1 game to OSU + OSU loses 1 game (to Nebraska, MSU, or Maryland)
- Lose 2 games + beat OSU, and PSU finishes with 3+ losses in conference
For OSU to win the division:
- Win out
- Lose 1 game to Nebraska, Maryland, or MSU and beat UM
- Lose 1 game to UM and UM loses 2 of 3 vs. PSU, IU, and Rutgers
For MSU to win the division:
- Win out + PSU wins out + OSU wins out except for MSU (PSU and OSU beat UM). 4-way tie at 7-2 in conference, MSU and OSU have the better intra-division record, MSU has the H2H tiebreaker vs. OSU
- Win out + PSU wins out + UM loses another 1 to IU or Rutgers but beats OSU (3-way tie at 7-2 in conference, MSU has the divisional tiebreaker)
For PSU to win the division:
- Win out + OSU loses 2 more (UM and MSU) + MSU loses one more (Nebraska, Maryland, or Rutgers) + UM loses 1 more (to Rutgers, OSU, or IU). PSU and UM tied at 7-2 in conference and they have the head to head, OSU and MSU finish with 3 conference losses.
These may be missing some possibilities but I think these are the most likely scenarios for any of the "big 4" to win the division, at this time.
October 29th, 2018 at 1:15 PM ^
I think you meant:
For UM to win the division:
- Win out
- Lose 1 game to PSU, IU, or Rutgers, and beat OSU
- Lose 1 game to OSU + OSU loses 1 game (to Nebraska, MSU, or Maryland)
- Lose 2 games + beat OSU, and MSU beats OSU
October 29th, 2018 at 1:19 PM ^
Ah yes. Okay my bad. If we lose 2 games but beat OSU, the worst case scenario is that there's a 3-way tie with PSU, UM, and OSU at the 2-losses. H2H would all be 1-1, and then division records would favor OSU (only 1 loss in division). Similarly, if we lose 2 games but beat OSU and MSU also beats OSU (and wins out), the 3-way tie would be between PSU, UM, and MSU (all being 1-1 head to head), and MSU would get it because they'd only have 1 loss in the division.
But yes, if we lose 2 games but beat OSU, and MSU also beats OSU (and wins out), it'd only be UM and MSU with 2 losses and we'd also have the head to head there.
October 29th, 2018 at 2:00 PM ^
Divisions suck
October 29th, 2018 at 8:13 PM ^
Agreed. Divisions and conference championship games need to go. Expand the field to at least 8. The 8 get to play what would have been a conference championship game and we are down to the 4 that we have now with the same number of games being played as we do now. And the first 4 losers can play in another bowl game. What is so hard about this???
October 29th, 2018 at 2:01 PM ^
Beat Penn State.
October 29th, 2018 at 2:43 PM ^
It's astonishing how bad the Rutgers still are considering they've been in the B1G since 2014.
October 29th, 2018 at 3:35 PM ^
There are at least a dozen games where chaos could ensue for the top 6 teams. It could be Bama Clemson ND (ND doesnt play a championship and BAMA clemson have a mulligan in this scenario) and a slew of 2 loss teams? I know thats not very homerish but imagine the next round being 2 loss Oklahoma, UM, Georgia, LSU. Good luck picking the 4th.
October 29th, 2018 at 9:38 PM ^
If Michigan wins it's remaining games, it will become the first East team to post a 9-0 record and to win the division by at least two games.
October 29th, 2018 at 10:05 PM ^
I hope this happens!
psu
rutgers
indiana
are all big games!
Michigan needs to be 10-1 against OSU, playing with a lot of confidence going into that game!!!