Nonsense Statistics to Make You Feel Better (but Probably Won't Help)
Since I cannot work and occupy my mind, due to the impending game, I am trying to make myself feel better and get over these nerves. Mike Despacito's record at MSU vs. UM against the spread is incredible. It horrifies me. The guy is either good or lucky, and it really doesn't matter which (though, of course, it does).
So, I wanted to know - dispassionately - how likely we are to win this game tomorrow, throwing out his specific record ATS against us and the intense personal rivalry between the two programs. What are UM's chances of winning this game as 7 points favorites? I found a great website that has data on performance by game spread/line since 2003.
Based on this data (which I assume is accurate, because it's on the Internet), there have been 577 games where the closing line was -7 for one of the teams since 2003. In those games, the favored team won the game (regardless of score) 404 times, for a winning rate of 70.0%. In other words, a team favored by 7 points wins the game 7 of 10 times. FYI, if the line moves a half point in either direction before the game tomorrow, which it very well might, the odds of winning change very little; at either -6.5 or -7.5, the odds of winning outright drop a little to 68.5% and 67.5%, respectively.
However, while the team favored by 7 points may win 7/10 games, they cover the spread less than 50% of the time (46.0%). So don't be surprised if we win a close one tomorrow; I doubt anyone would be anyway.
(Now, to anticipate objections, I am sure someone will say, "BUT, even though we are 7 point favorites and that gives UM a 70% chance to win the game, that isn't factoring in the fact that D'Anterini has beat the spread against UM every time since 2007!!!" To which I respond... Of course the oddsmakers are taking this into account when they set the line. Based purely on records, offensive and defensive performance, and so forth, so far this season, UM should probably be a bigger favorite. And if we were, say, a 9-point favorite, which seems more accurate to me, our odds winning outright would leap to 83.7%)
So, we have a 70% chance to win tomorrow. I feel no better. But maybe you will...
October 19th, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^
Completely off topic to this discussion, but, has anyone noticed the reduction in posts on mgoblog by UMBIG11? I believe he has been posting regularly on other $ sites. I also saw him post a few comments on here a while back that alluded to his frustration with this site. Just hoping that he doesn't shift more toward other sites because he's the sole reason I joined this site. I stuck around because of the rest of you turds, but he's the one that drew me in with his Speight-to-be-named-starter info.
October 19th, 2018 at 1:22 PM ^
He was posting on another site, 24/7 I think. On Wednesday he said he had it on good authority that Gary was out for this Saturday and likely going to sit out the rest of the year. On Thursday, he said he had it on even best-est authority that Gary was full go and going to play Saturday. So, he thinks that Gary is definitely going to play or not play this weekend.
October 19th, 2018 at 1:27 PM ^
that's a relief. Thank you.
October 19th, 2018 at 1:35 PM ^
Perhaps he's not directly connected so news travels slow to him. I'm sure Michigan is tight lipped on a lot of things this week. The guy has insider info, how I dont know. It's most likely through another source directly with the team.
October 19th, 2018 at 6:45 PM ^
I think Umbig got his feelings hurt because some chowder head started a thread dising him a few weeks back.
The thread was kind of a Richard move.
October 19th, 2018 at 1:19 PM ^
Jim Harbaugh has won 100% of the games in East Lansing as a coach or player
October 19th, 2018 at 2:01 PM ^
Hold me, reddogrjw.
October 19th, 2018 at 1:20 PM ^
Do you post on 11W as BluFan?
October 19th, 2018 at 1:23 PM ^
Who, me???
October 19th, 2018 at 1:28 PM ^
It's just a flash resemblance based upon prolific posting, reasonable ability to articulate, willingness and ability to access and report stats, and (admittedly, this is based just on this one post), an overall downer mentality about UM.
I mean nothing by it personally, but if you are BluFan, or if you know who he is, let me know? I'd like to kick him in the nuts.
October 19th, 2018 at 1:33 PM ^
I am not BluFan, am NOT pessimistic about UM, and have never posted on 11W in my life (and never will, thank you very much). Now, please leave my nuts alone!
October 19th, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^
I fucking hate math and statistics. Good thing I work at a bank.
October 19th, 2018 at 1:24 PM ^
You may say you hate math, but I have a sneaking suspicion you can eyeball something and tell the difference between 3.5 grams and 3 grams... :-D
October 19th, 2018 at 1:33 PM ^
Well yeah, digital scales were much larger and less portable in the 90's. That was pretty much an essential skill back then, like spelling and remembering phone numbers.
October 19th, 2018 at 2:52 PM ^
More likely that the mercury concentration in your blood is >15 ng/ml
October 19th, 2018 at 6:49 PM ^
In my day we judged weed by the number of fingers...
Sucks being old.
October 19th, 2018 at 1:57 PM ^
Not sure if your comment was in jest, but this is exactly me. Hated math and stats from 9th grade on, went to school for subjects at the opposite end of the spectrum, and now I work at a bank.
My engineer father and accountant mother found that turn of events hilarious.
October 19th, 2018 at 2:05 PM ^
No, I'm completely serious. And I think it's fairly common. Off the top of my head I can think of people working here that went to dental school (hated it) and NU J school (good luck making any money at a newspaper in 2018).
October 19th, 2018 at 2:55 PM ^
Dental school - ah yes. That is where the exposure took place.
October 19th, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^
When was the last time the home team lost 4 in a row in this rivalry (never)
October 19th, 2018 at 2:21 PM ^
???
Michigan State lost at home in 1971, 1973, 1975, 1977, 1979, 1981, 1983, and 1985: 8 in a row at home...by a combined score of 227 to 60.
October 19th, 2018 at 2:23 PM ^
What a time to be alive!
October 19th, 2018 at 2:24 PM ^
I think he meant the visiting team has never won four times in a row in the UM-MSU series.
Whether that's true or not I don't know.
October 19th, 2018 at 2:27 PM ^
Ah. I get it.
Then I would have to go back to 1934, 1935, 1936 and 1937: the visiting team won each of those games.
October 19th, 2018 at 2:43 PM ^
Holy smokes. Were they playing back and forth then? (Ann arbor-E Lansing-AA-E Lansing)
October 19th, 2018 at 2:45 PM ^
No, they weren't.
That's the unfortunate part...I think the less said about that 4-year stretch, the better. I kind of regret bringing it up.
October 19th, 2018 at 2:42 PM ^
I'm guessing that it's never happened, but I'm not WD so I can't say for sure.
October 19th, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^
Alright. I'm done. Read this post too many times and just yelled at a coworker for having a green lanyard exclaiming "Not this week!". Until 3:30PM tomorrow..........
October 19th, 2018 at 2:15 PM ^
I just yelled at my cat for staring at me. I am on edge too
October 19th, 2018 at 6:33 PM ^
I had to chastise a (female) coworker yesterday for wearing a white shirt and green cardigan. She barely knew which schools I was going on about and what colors belong to whom. I haz sad.
Then I remembered that I'm in AZ and no one really cares about rivalries around here, much less Midwestern rivalries.
October 19th, 2018 at 11:49 PM ^
You get to watch the game at 9:00am?! Lucky duck.
October 19th, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^
Note accurate enough—go back and re-calculate taking into account chips of disrespkt.
Since Schembechler arrived, we've lost 17 games to MSU.
In 13 of those games, Michigan went into the game ranked higher than MSU. In 2008 neither team was ranked, and in 2013/14/15, MSU was ranked higher.
October 19th, 2018 at 1:41 PM ^
It's nothing new. Even some of John L and Bobby Williams's teams played us closer than they should have. Shouldn't have even been a game in 2001. Shouldn't have been a game in the Number 1 vs No one game. Shouldn't have been a game in 2016.
Are we up to the challenge of actually punching them in the mouth? I hope so.
October 19th, 2018 at 2:47 PM ^
It wasn't much of a game in 2016.
October 19th, 2018 at 1:41 PM ^
I looked at S&P+ final rankings plus rankings to date in 2018. Michigan under Harbaugh is 8-2 in games where M is 10 to 30 spots better than the opponents in S&P. Michigan is 30 spots higher than MSU this year. Those 2 losses are @Utah and @Iowa. Harbaugh has one loss where they were more than 30 spots better and that was the bowl against South Carolina.
Overall Michigan is 34-7 as the S&P favorite under Harbaugh. 25-1 when better by 30 spots or more (S Carolina).
October 19th, 2018 at 1:59 PM ^
nice find
October 19th, 2018 at 2:36 PM ^
But those are not game time S&P+ rankings, correct?
S&P+ is intended to predict the next game. So using year end S&P+ rankings (if you are doing that) is not the way they are supposed to be used.
October 19th, 2018 at 5:35 PM ^
S&P also says Michigan has a 71% chance to win tomorrow, and projects them to win by 9.6 points.
However, MSU tends to slightly overperform relative to S&P, whereas Harbaugh has slightly underperformed.
My solace: Michigan is finally good enough to win while not playing their best. M, 23-17
October 19th, 2018 at 1:45 PM ^
nope don't feel any better, actually felt sick this morning thinking about game
October 19th, 2018 at 1:52 PM ^
Nonsense
October 19th, 2018 at 1:58 PM ^
that's pretty good spread making to have the 0 point be exactly at 50%.
Interesting to see the win percentage actually dip below 50% out to a 2 point spread.
October 19th, 2018 at 2:04 PM ^
If anyone other then Vegas was involved, I'd say the data was so accurate as to be a little juiced. The 0 spread is exactly 75/150.
October 19th, 2018 at 2:25 PM ^
The 0 spread makes sense, because there are 2 teams in every game with a 0 spread, and one team wins and one loses. So 75 games with 75 winners and 75 losers.
October 19th, 2018 at 2:33 PM ^
I am an idiot who was been awake too long.
October 19th, 2018 at 2:36 PM ^
No worries; I'm an idiot who got a good night's sleep.
I'm with jakerblue: the amazing thing to me on that graph is that it appears teams that are -1 and -1.5 actually have losing records straight up over the sample period. That seems like an opportunity, although the percentages are so small that it's likely not much of an opportunity.
October 19th, 2018 at 2:48 PM ^
It breaks out home vs. away as well, but does not have the data by date. I wonder if the year by year trends are consistent are just a jumble of noise.
October 19th, 2018 at 2:23 PM ^
Nope, don’t help. It’s gonbs be rough tomorrow.
October 19th, 2018 at 2:50 PM ^
Appreciate the effort, but yeah, I still don't feel better.
October 19th, 2018 at 3:42 PM ^
We are gonna win this thing by at least three scores. 34-16 is the closest I can go (The least I see us scoring w/minimum one defensive/ST TD, and the most I can see them getting with a ton of 50-50 balls to Felton), but I'm thinking 48-7.
It's gonna rain in EL Saturday--just not from the clouds.