In One Score Games Harbaugh is 5-8

"What is it .....?"

They beat lessor teams by more than one score more often and keep it closer against better teams.

Considering Dantonio had lost 9 by more than one score where as Harbaugh has only lost 4 in the same time. Harbaugh has won 23 by more than one score, Chippy D? Only 13.

That's why idiots should stay away from fire and statistics.

On top of that bullshit MSU/UM game, Dantonio’s record also includes a loss to 3-9 Illinois by 4 points. Can you imagine if Harbaugh lost to a 3-9 team let alone that team being Illinois? I guess Dantonio just didn’t prepare his team well enough for that big clash

One score games is always a bit of a weird and nit-pick state, as if some coaches are more clutch than others. Rodger Sherman had a funny Friday Night Lights article on this, about how great coaches typically still end up about .500 in close games, but Coach Taylor was awesome at it (I've only watched a few episodes of the show myself, could never get into it).

Anyway, one score games are typically going to favor the better team. Why? Because if you're the better team, you're more likely to be up one score instead of down one score. And if you're the better team, you're more likely to score points if you are down than otherwise. So "close games" will typically favor the better team.

"Close games" (7 points of less at end of reg) for Harbaugh: 

2015: Utah (L, first game at Michigan, 10 win team), MSU (L, playoff team that finished with 12 wins and won on a flukey fumble return), Minnesota (W, 6 win team with weird clock management at the end), Indiana (W, 6 win team, won in OT), OSU (finished #4 that season).

2016: Wisconsin (W, finished year #9), Iowa (L, 8 win team, lost on last second FG), OSU (L, finished #6, lost in OT by an inch), FSU (L, finished #8).  

2017: MSU (L, won 10 games), Indiana (W, won 5 games), S. Carolina (won 9 games) 

2018: ND

Combined regular season record of teams in close games: 102-42 (0.708). With UM games removed: 71.8%

MSU combined regular season record of teams in close games: 111-68 (0.620). With MSU games removed: 65.4%

So some of it is that Michigan hasn't finished against good teams. Part of it is that MSU has. Part of it is that MSU has had more close games against weak teams. And part of it is very small sample sizes that generally skew data pretty terribly.

Seriously, can everyone collectively just STFU with these threads. I don't get how many times people want to say the same fucking thing over and over.

Well, if we're in the mood for throwing out 2016, without that year Harbaugh is 4-5 in 1-score games, so basically the coin-flip that 1-score games tend to be.

Also, being in a bunch of 1-score games isn't necessarily a sign of being a good team; MSU being in 17 1-score games (many of which are against the likes of Purdue, Rutgers, Nebraska, Indiana, Utah St, Minnesota, etc.) isn't all that inspiring.  Michigan crushed a lot of those teams.  To me, I'd rather bank on a team that doesn't have to sweat out every game.

Beating a dead horse, but its a slow day at work so I'll bite:

I'm not going to go so far as to say the team is "soft" or "weak," because I sure as hell wouldn't do any better than them. But there are a variety of reasons. Some of it is just dumb luck. The call that went OSU's way in 2016 literally could've gone either way and a great argument could've been made for it. Just didn't go our way. Dumb luck. 

But I think the bigger narrative is that when a play needs to be made, Michigan just can't make it. Metellus can't grab the surefire pick that sends him 80 yards the other way to send Michigan up 21-0 and possibly put the 2017 OSU game out of reach. Can't pick up a first down the whole 4th quarter in the 2016 OSU game when just one would've probably iced the game. The play against MSU that shall not be named. Crable tackling Troy Smith out of bounds. Borges not changing the call in the 2013 OSU game, or stubbornly continuing to run the I formation against OSU in 2012 when it was clearly not working. Unless they're playing IU or Minnesota, this program just can't make a play when it absolutely has to. They're not being outclassed in these games. They just can't make the play that they absolutely have to make. 

I don't know what you attribute that to. Bad coaching? Fate of the universe? I just don't friggin' know. But no matter what, it doesn't seem to matter who the coach is. That play just can't be made. So while this makes absolutely no sense, I'm not sure if its a coaching problem so much as it is a problem with the program in general. 

Meh,

n choose k with p=.5 = 0.16

I've seen more improbable things happen.

Maybe that means he isn't losing close games he should win, rather making losses that should be blowouts close.

BBQJeff is a troll.  Read his posting history.  Nothing but slamming UM and praising MSU.

One has to really be searching for negativity to find this stat.

Here's another stat: there will be at least 43 terrible threads created this week.

But how many defeats with dignity?

I hope we beat Western, SMU, and Nebraska by 1-7 points each so we can fix this very important factoid.

A key point in your post is "...and this includes his 2016 nightmare season."  The nightmare season was 3-9!!  Of course there were probably not many one score games in that season, because they were so bad they went 3-9!

The worst part about losing is all the stupid shit that gets thought up waiting on the next game.

I means we won a lot of games by big margins and the losses were close.

"Statistics" like that are ridiculously misleading.

Have you bothered to think that if Harbaugh wasn't the coach some of those losses may have been greater than 1 score?

I have no tolerance for such threads.  If they are by trolls, then I understand.  For actual wolverine fans, I suggest the following games should be watched and then compare, with emphasis on 2014:

1.  2008 Toledo

2.  2012 Nebraska

3.  2013 Kansas State

4.  2014 first Utah, then Minnesota, back to back

Okay, now let's break down those one score games:

2015:

1.) loss to Utah. We were pretty much outmatched and still going through growing pains.  Still, that we hung in there with a 10 win team at their place in week one is nothing to sneeze at (truthfully I believe this current season is going to be a lot like 2015, but that's another topic).

2.) loss to MSU. Muffed kick.  And I still believe MSU was offsides on that last play (look at the lineup again), but either way that was a fluke loss. 

2016:

1.) Iowa: essentially you had a play where they scored earlier in the game due to some bad penalties (much like last Saturday) and lost on a last second field goal.  It's worth noting that Speight was pretty injured near the end of that game.  Doesn't justify the loss, but it does explain it. Up to that point, Speight was sufficient for the season.  I think personally that that particular hit did something to Speight's mental game from there on, but that's another topic.

2.) Ohio State: we all know about J.T.'s phantom 4th down conversion. Had that game, and it slipped away on the last play.  Funny point about that: I don't recall the specific item, but OSU did something in that game which Clemson later on did in their game against OSU, and the announcer for ESPN noted wryly that "Michigan fans might have something to say about it."

2017:

1.) MSU: Boneheaded defensive aggression combined with people forgetting that Lewerke is much closer to a dual threat than a true pocket passer put us in the hole in the first half (again, like last Saturday).  Even with that, we STILL could have won the game inside of a minute. O'Korn threw a deep ball to a receiver (who it was escapes me at the moment) and the receiver had it, and all he had to do was turn around and waltz into the endzone for a touchdown.  The receiver dropped it.  Despite all the crap that went on in that game, we still had it within grasp. 

2.) Wisconsin: again, QB injury changed the game dynamic.  Peters was playing solid against Wisky, until he was taken out. Even then, close game overall

3.) OSU: had a GREAT offensive plan against them.  Had it been any other QB than O'Korn, maybe even Speight before his injury, and we win that game. Pretty much guarantee it. Last minute score by OSU made the game look more lopsided than it actually was.

4.) South Carolina.  We were doing pretty good until the 4th quarter.  All of a sudden, it was as if we quit playing to win and started playing to not lose a la Lloyd Carr (one of my gripes about a tendency found in the pro-style offense). We gave that game away, period. Blame goes on both sides of the ball for that one.

2018, enough said about this one. 

Conclusion: Harbaugh has lost close ones.  I would say that AT LEAST TWO of them were fluke games (MSU in 2015, OSU in 2016). I would put three of them in the venue of good plan but not having the players to execute the plan (MSU 2017, OSU 2017, Wisconsin 2017).  I would chock one up to smoothing out rough edges (Utah 2015). One goes to unexpected injury (Iowa 2016), I would put one up to the Carr-conservative turtling (2017 vs South Carolina), and one up to bad playcalling (MSU 2017).

BTW, I know most sports fans don't take stock in the "moral victory" route, but there IS a difference between being beat by one score or less vs. being blown out. The OSU loss stung last year, but I'll take that over the Penn State embarrassment we received.

……...

Usually when looking at a stat like that, I would say that conditioning and mental toughness are the culprit. 

Consider:

It is 2016 Michigan vs. Michigan State.  Michigan is handling State although the score remains fairly close.  In a spite-fueled final drive State finally scores a touchdown with one second left to narrow the Wolverine lead to 30-23.  Dantonio turns the spite up to eleven and orders a two point conversion, which backfires spectacularly when Jabrill Peppers intercepts the pass and runs it all the way back for the final two Michigan points.

The final score, 32-23, is a nine-point margin of victory and thus is not included in this statistic for UM or MSU.

If Dantonio had just kicked an extra point, or missed the extra point, or anything else BESIDES a defensive touchdown, it IS a one score game, and Harbaugh's numbers get slightly better while Dantonio's get slightly worse.  But thanks to Sparty spite and Peppers salting the wounds, it doesn't count.

Kind of makes it look like a dumb statistic.

I'll just leave this here:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2018/09/04/michigan-football-has-improved-under-jim-harbaugh-seriously/?utm_term=.b82241e5fe87

8-5 would sure feel different considering those possibilities. Say you couldn't flip OSU '16, do you take the two MSU games and last weekend? Probably.

Answer: Because he finds a way to keep games close even when he has the lesser team.

Question: Why has Dantonio lost 9 games by >1 score while JH has lost 4?

Question: Why has Dantonio won only 14 games by >1 score while JH has won 21?

Question: Why is Dantonio 26-14 over the same stretch JH is 28-12?

[I actually believe JH would be at the apex if he could find a way to instill a little more moxie, heroics and good fortune. MSU 15, Iowa 16, OSU 16 and SC 17 - just make 1 or 2 basic plays and the whole narrative changes. Frankly, he should hire a team psychologist at this point.]