socrking

August 28th, 2018 at 3:55 PM ^

The very next post on this board is about how SIX ESPN experts picked Michigan to go to the playoff. Clicks = money. You just helped finance “these clowns.” They will write whatever generates clicks. 

LabattsBleu

August 28th, 2018 at 3:58 PM ^

I mean let's be honest here - did anyone think Harbaugh was going to be 2-7 vs MSU/OSU/Bowl Games prior to him being hired here?

More importantly, if people were asked if 2-7 was acceptable following Harbaugh's hiring, would have anyone thought that was acceptable?

i highly doubt anyone would have said "yes" to both those questions at that time.

People can point to bad spots, unfortunate injuries or whatever to justify that record, but no one outside of Michigan cares, just like Michigan doesn't put an asterisk behind the win over a Fickell coached OSU team.

While i don't think he's on the hot seat now, if he doesn't chalk up a split vs MSU/OSU, i could see his seat getting uncomfortable next year, esp since it might be, yet another, new QB to break in...

Winning cures all. Hopefully that starts on Saturday.

Go Blue

ijohnb

August 28th, 2018 at 4:07 PM ^

Honestly, if you are talking about when Harbaugh was hired, it is not that far off.  At that moment, in the 2014 off-season, I would have said: MSU - 2015 - loss, 2016 and 2017 - both wins.  I would not have forecasted that we would have beaten OSU yet.  I wouldn't have said it was impossible, but at the time he was hired I would not have predicted it.  

 

LabattsBleu

August 28th, 2018 at 4:49 PM ^

eliminating OSU, that's still 2-4 versus MSU and Bowl games though...

At the time of the hire...i'd have thought Michigan would have been closer to .500 versus MSU/OSU/Bowl Games to honest...

As much as I hate Dantonio, he inherited a tire fire at MSU and won the B1G in his fourth year.

Harbaugh's not on the hot seat, but anyone that knows the Michigan fan base knows that the record versus his rivals is incredibly important, so as ludicrous as it sounds, there's a tipping point for every coach and its fanbase, even Harbaugh

LJ

August 28th, 2018 at 6:07 PM ^

I get MSU and OSU, but why are we picking bowl games as the measuring stick?  We've won 2 of 3 against Penn State, and had big wins over very good Colorado and Wisconsin teams. 

Something tells me that if the bowl record was 2-1 and the Penn State record was 1-2, we'd hear about how we're 2-7 against MSU, PSU, and OSU instead.

LabattsBleu

August 28th, 2018 at 9:20 PM ^

even if you swapped PSU in and bowl games out, that's still a 3-7 record....not much better versus the teams in the B1G East you have to beat to get into the B1G championship game...

not sure why anyone is particularly upset about the article unless people didn't read it. Even Harbaugh gets it:

"[The criticism] is fair because we haven't won [big games]," Harbaugh told Smith last week. "So, you know, I think with anybody, you pour your heart and soul into something and you do the best job you can. And there's always going to be a hundred people, at least, who are going to tell you how you could have done it better."

LJ

August 28th, 2018 at 9:28 PM ^

I think the article was fine.  I think people are just eager to complain solely because of MSU and OSU.  If we had lost our marquee nonconference games but won the bowl games, people would cite the MSU/OSU/Big nonconference record instead.  It's cherry picking.

It's also fine to complain about MSU and OSU, but everyone should also recognize we're literally inches from being 3-3 in games against those teams.  We've had some rough luck.  Everyone needs to calm down a little bit.  It's a low sample size.

Jasper

August 28th, 2018 at 4:54 PM ^

Regarding OSU, same here. Too many people expected Harbaugh to catch up IMMEDIATELY with a school on an extended amazing recruiting run and with a HOF-level (and slimy, and hypocritical, etc.) coach and just as much "tradition" as UMich.

stephenrjking

August 28th, 2018 at 4:01 PM ^

This article is basically correct. The money quote, also quoted by others in this thread:

Few believe that Harbaugh's job is in danger, even if his 2-7 record in those games worsens this fall. Or if another first weekend of December comes and goes without any Maize and Blue on the sideline in Indianapolis for the Big Ten title game. But most everyone believes that here, on the eve of that crucial fourth year, the Harbaugh era is standing squarely at a State Street-like crossroads, its time of ultimate judgment having finally arrived.

His job isn't in jeopardy. We know we've got the best possible coach.

But that's kinda the point, right? If Jim Harbaugh, a Super Bowl coach who single-handedly turned a dead Stanford program into a BCS-capable powerhouse, can't turn Michigan into an elite program, we won't get anyone else.

And this is the season. Yeah, there's talent next year, but for all of the angst about whether or not we should be worried about the stars of this recruit or that one, the fact is this: Elite teams that are capable of winning a national title get a lot of elite recruits. Harbaugh's class last year was substandard; this one teeters a bit. Win big this year and recruiting will be fine. Toss out another mediocre 4-loss season and most of the top-100 types stop taking his calls.

Harbaugh should be able to win this year. He has a 5-star QB (plus three other recruits on the roster, two of which already have at least a year in the program). He has blue-chip talent at WR, including a 5-star. He has blue-chip talent on the OL, even if it is young (and while Mason Cole losing a redshirt hurts, Harbaugh's program whiffed on both Devery Hamilton and Isaiah Wilson, and even one of those on the field for us this year would be a huge difference). He has NFL caliber talent at RB. He has a top-3 defense, anchored by a #1 overall recruit at DE. 

Harbaugh should be able to win this year. Michigan shouldn't just be "pretty good." Michigan should be excellent. Blah blah blah tough schedule; even if Michigan gets mugged by the schedule they should be able to win 10 games, and yes, should be capable of beating OSU. I'm not saying "must make playoff," because a 10-win season with a win at OSU might be an excellent season depending upon circumstances, but excellence is required. And excellence is a reasonable expectation.

Frankly, if Harbaugh can't field an excellent team at Michigan this year, he likely never will. He might be able to field some very good teams, coach up players, get a good QB here and there, keep the defense in top 10 territory with Don Brown, and all. But not greatness. Everything a head coach needs to succeed at the highest levels is in Ann Arbor right now.

If Michigan can't achieve greatness with this, then our ceiling as a fanbase and a program needs to be permanently adjusted to, I hate to say this, the level MSU is at right now. They develop players well despite lower star ratings. They regularly produce NFL draft picks at QB. They occasionally contend for a conference title. They made the playoff once and got killed. That's their ceiling. Michigan has done none of those things since Carr left; if they can't even get to that level this year, with everything in place, then that's our ceiling too. 

11-1 season this year? The ceiling is lifted. The recruits want to come. Everything is in front of us. 9-3? 8-4? Harbaugh won't lose his job. But he won't win a national title. 

You'd better believe we're at a crossroads this year. 

OwenGoBlue

August 28th, 2018 at 4:36 PM ^

So ultimately the fate of Harbaugh's tenure here comes down to one or two games this season? I think that's a little ridiculous.

Being capital G Great this year would certainly improve the program and recruiting, but if they're merely good with a pile of early draft picks they're still going to recruit well enough there won't be an MSU-style "ceiling."

stephenrjking

August 28th, 2018 at 4:50 PM ^

Define "well enough." Michigan can absorb one recruiting season like last year, but not two or three. Not if they want to be "elite." 

And a game or two is how this works in college football. How close was Michigan to playing Florida in the national title game after the 2006 season? Perhaps one Crable late hit. How close was Michigan to making the playoff after 2016? Literally an inch or two. Even 2001, a team with a dreadful offense, was right there in all three regular season losses (one of which required an extra second of gametime to be a loss); a baseball contract might have swung all three. 

Right now any recruiter can tell a blue chip considering Michigan not to go there because they won't win under Harbaugh. After all, he got dozens of blue chips, including a #1 overall player, and he can't win with them; what will be different?

Winning changes the narrative. But Michigan has to win. 

OwenGoBlue

August 28th, 2018 at 5:30 PM ^

Well enough = Michigan will continue to recruit a bunch of blue chip players because they have great coaches, a fun defense and the put-you-in-the-NFL chops (with more first round supporting evidence). 9-3 and they'll still have better 4 year recruiting cycles than the one that got Clemson a national title.

The big games matter and I have no quibbles with you there. I just don't think 9-3 makes Michigan perpetually incapable of acquiring the talent needed to win championships because of the reasons stated above and also because a ton of teams recruit well without the signature season you're talking about. 

stephenrjking

August 28th, 2018 at 5:50 PM ^

The situation differs depending upon the school. Clemson is a good example of a team that slowly built itself up using good-but-not-elite recruiting and a terrific staff; however, they are an exception that kinda proves the rule. Dabo Swinney did not arrive on the job with a lot of hype the way Harbaugh did, nor was he ever at Harbaugh's level of celebrity. There was no opportunity to suggest to recruits that he was all hype and no substance, the way there currently is with Harbaugh.

Nevertheless, in Swinney's fourth full season, he led Clemson to an 11-2 record, including a Chick Fil-A Bowl win over then-elite LSU. That was also the year that Swinney secured the service of Brent Venables, his crucial defensive coordinator. Their recruiting has been consistently good every year, though not great, but they have a lot of players to pick from in their area compared with Michigan.

And they're just plain different. Most great head coaches win national titles within their first four years at a program. I don't think Harbaugh needs to, but he needs to show that he's great in that time frame. 

 

OwenGoBlue

August 28th, 2018 at 6:06 PM ^

Ok...but what if they go 9-3 this year and win a championship next year? 

For the guys who will be leaving, and I think they lose 4-6 guys early to the NFL, they'll return a ton of starters (especially on offense) and have young talent waiting in the wings with the three rivalry games at home.  

Harbaugh obviously needs to win big to have Michigan be elite. It doesn't have to happen this year or never just because a bunch of other guys won in their first 4 years recently. 

stephenrjking

August 28th, 2018 at 6:23 PM ^

I used to take the position that Harbaugh had to make the playoff in 18 or 19. I thought next year had a good chance.

I would be delighted to be wrong. But I don't think Michigan has enough talent ready to step up and replace losses (and we're talking about a lot--QB, our top TE, both DEs, both CBs, our best LB, our Viper, all leaving early) to win a title next year. Be good? Yes. But a 9-3, 10-2 season next season after a 9-3 or 8-4 this year is not winning a championship. There is more talent and more coaching now. Of our position groups, only receiver and OL are likely to be improved over this season. Most everything else will likely take a step back. Small, but a step back. 

And a mediocre season this year basically puts a hard cap on this recruiting year, which directly harms Harbaugh's ability to replenish losses as the top 5 classes that make up the core of 18 and 19 start leaving. The guys recruited last year and this year are the guys that we're depending on in 2020 if there isn't a later influx of talent, and they are... good but not great.

Meanwhile the machine continues to roll in Columbus, and the rest of the division doesn't get any easier.

That's a program with an MSU-type ceiling. Might have things come together and win the conference occasionally (even though we haven't since the Carr era) but there just won't be the talent on the field to compete with elite playoff teams. 

Steeveebr

August 28th, 2018 at 5:53 PM ^

There is a reason Michigan fans like John Cooper and hate Jim Tressel.  There is a reason OSU fans don't like talking about Cooper.  It's weird right?  He was a winning football coach.  He won championships.  He won everywhere he went.  Except at the Big house. 

He was rightfully fired.  It's really quite simple.  

I like Harbaugh.  I really do.  However, I like winning more and, to be fair, he has more resources than any other Big Ten coach.  Do I think it's this year or he's gone, no.  But it's really close.

stephenrjking

August 28th, 2018 at 6:26 PM ^

1. The points are a glitch, don't get disgruntled about it.

2. I'm rather optimistic about the team this season. I expect them to meet the challenge. But I call it like I see it, and there's an urgency to the season that is undeniable. That's not fatalism; that's realism from my perspective. 

Disagree, by all means. Don't get sore about it.

OwenGoBlue

August 28th, 2018 at 8:46 PM ^

Not disgruntled or sore in the least. Meant the points reference as a friendly one. I have a chuckle every time someone asks you about them and you graciously respond despite the repetition of that exercise.

I am also optimistic and agree there is urgency but disagree on the narrowness of your window. We shall see.

I was about to lay out my case for 2019 to your response above but that's better left for the dregs of the offseason when we know more and don't have an active squad to pay attention to. On to Notre Dame!

stephenrjking

August 28th, 2018 at 9:50 PM ^

Not disgruntled or sore in the least. Meant the points reference as a friendly one. I have a chuckle every time someone asks you about them and you graciously respond despite the repetition of that exercise.

Appreciate the clarification, I misread the comment. Your response here is well stated.

 We shall see.

No offense but I think we both hope we won't see which one of us is correct because the team's success this year renders this conversation academic.

Good conversation. Win the Game!

MGO_Blue

August 28th, 2018 at 4:03 PM ^

I am sure 90% of fans will be upset with Harbaugh if we lose to MSU & OSU this year, but with both being on the road, it could happen. If we drop both next year at home, THEN there should be talk about Harbaugh being in the hot seat. Going 1-9 against your main rivals in your first 5 years will not work at Michigan... 

Steeveebr

August 28th, 2018 at 8:52 PM ^

I'm sure that has NOTHING to do with what got us in trouble.  Our feelings towards a certain school have no bearing on the performance of the coaches and administrators that sent the program into its downward spiral.  Get over yourself.

We don't live in a never ending run of Tiger Town.

The Butterfly

August 28th, 2018 at 4:13 PM ^

The front page of ESPN currently reads:

"Jim Harbaugh has his elite QB and a must-win situtation."

While that's unfair and misguided, the original title was:

"With Shea Patterson on board, the Jim Harbaugh era is at a crossroads."

Unsurprisingly, it's not a content-rich article but I think the initial headline has some truth to it... If Shea Patterson struggles and this team goes 8-4 Harbaugh could have trouble elevating the program to playoff-level performance levels the following seasons. An 11-1 season, however, would put the program squarely back on the map. Both outcomes are very possible.

We'll have a much better idea come Saturday! For now, we can agree ESPN is nothing but click bait - and boy do we click.

JFW

August 28th, 2018 at 4:17 PM ^

Meh. So much of media is driven by clickbait viewing, and so Michigan has such a huge fanbase, that I expect to get trolled from time to time. It happens. ESPN has taken such a dump in the recent past that I have a hard time getting bunched over it. 

Hab

August 28th, 2018 at 4:18 PM ^

I clicked the link.  It's fair, informative (didn't know Shea had called Woodson asking to wear #2 this year), and balanced.  It right states that few would think of Harbaugh's job as in jeopardy even if we lose to the rivals again, but this year is an important year, and the coming on of a QB will make or break that year. 

Sounds fair to me.  But hell, I only put down my pitchfork to tap this out, someone hand it back to me so I can scream at someone on the internet.

raleighwood

August 28th, 2018 at 4:23 PM ^

A lot is made of the 1-5 record against "rivals".  I use quotation marks because I'm old enough to remember when Sparty only won once (1970's) or twice (1980's) per decade.  Sparty went 40 years without winning back-to-back games.  That's just my perspective (and I realize that OSU is getting close to saying similar things about Michigan).  

Anyway, while 1-5 is reality, it's also REALLY close to being 3-3.  If the O'Neill just handles the punt in 2015, Michigan wins that game.  If Barrett is just six inches shorter in 2016, Michigan wins that game (if he even made it at all....and I'm of the opinion that he didn't).  Hell, if JOK wasn't the QB in 2017, Michigan might have won either of those rivalry games.

My point is that there's a really fine line between Hot Seat and In Control.  Harbaugh will be fine.  Michigan will be fine.  I think that the SOS and a couple key injuries (wouldn't you love to start the season with T. Black and G. Newsome on the field?) might keep this from being a truly remarkable season.  However, I still think that they're fielding "a damn strong football team".

 

 

 

 

J_Dub

August 28th, 2018 at 4:23 PM ^

Barring a scandal like OSU, MSU, PSU, Maryland, which I don't think we'll see, I'll take Harbaugh as coach for life.  I don't care about W/Ls.  I know he will do things the right way and put his soul into it.  It's about the process not the results for me.

DCGrad

August 28th, 2018 at 4:25 PM ^

I think you played yourself if you had extremely high expectations for Harbaugh in years 1-3. When Jim was hired, 2015 was a wildcard year.

2016 I think most people thought we would be good, but the OL had a hard ceiling and QB was a wildcard.

Knowing that 2016 was going to be a large senior class, the prospects of 2017 being a championship year were low.

I know it’s Michigan and we always have high expectations, but we needed to be realistic about the shape the roster was in when Harbaugh came. The program had 2 tumultuous changes in philosophy and OL and QB recruiting that never quite planned out under Hoke. Harbaugh needed time to patch those holes as best he could. 

Having said all that, this is a year the team needs to perform well. 11 wins well. We can see how the season plays out, but double-digit wins is a must for me. Michigan was an 8-5 team last season that was average QB and OL play away from being 11-1. This is the year I think Harbaugh delivers. 

TheTruth41

August 28th, 2018 at 4:31 PM ^

If this is the kind of material ESPN has to run for Michigan to be on their front page I'll take it.  Much better than OSU, MSU, PSU, Rutgers, Maryland right now.

DenverBuckeye

August 28th, 2018 at 4:33 PM ^

From an outside perspective, I agree with most here (and the article) that crossroads is the perfect term. Serious rival fans know that this may be Michigan's year. Beast of a defense and finally a QB with the talent to get them over the hump. If Michigan were to fall on its face and go 7-5 or 8-4, while losing to the rivals, you'll get some Michigan fans start calling for Harbaugh. Recruiting will stagnate quickly. But if Harbaugh makes the Playoffs this year, you'll get a massive swell of optimism from the fanbase and recruits. The offense doesn't even need to be great for Michigan to make the playoffs this year because the defense *should* be stupidly good.

Week 1 will tell us a lot. I expect Michigan to win by 10+.

Luckey1083

August 28th, 2018 at 7:44 PM ^

Thanks for the insight Denver, nice to see rationale Buckeyes out there.  I'm of the same opinion that you are.  I think our ceiling is as high as any team this year.  If Shea is the real deal and our running game improves just a little bit, this team could win a national championship.  We do however have depth issues at WR and OL and maybe a little bit on DL and those can be exposed by a few injuries, which may push Michigan to an 8 win season (which would be a disaster in my book).  I, for one, believe that Harbaugh is the best coach for the job (I mean how much better and more solid has our team looked compared to RR and Hoke), but he needs to beat three of ND, MSU, PSU, OSU and Wisconsin to make it a successful season in my book.  I'm not saying fire him if we win 8 games, but I think the seat will get fairly warm if we have another season like last years.