Will We Make the NCAA Tournament?
Mates,
Our hoops team is trending better, got a nice win tonight on the road, but is nothing if not incredibly inconsistent. Right now we sit at 14-10 overall record, 8-6 in the B10. 4 out of our last 6 regular season games are at home, but it is pretty close to a 'murderers row', and challenging by any definition. We go:
@ Wisconsin on Sunday
Then home vs. Rutgers (recent giant killers), Illinois, sparty, and Iowa. Then our last regular season game is
@ ohio on 3/6.
If we go 3-3 we'd end the regular season with a 17-13 resume. Win our first game (?) in the B10 tournament and if we lost the second then we'd finish 18-14.
Many possible outcomes, but even if we're 18-14, do you think we make the NCAA? What record to you think it would take?
XM
February 17th, 2022 at 9:46 PM ^
3 more wins and were 11-9 in conference. Should be enough. You can almost add a win to our total because Indiana FW canceled a covid game, I don't think that should be held against our win total.
February 17th, 2022 at 9:59 PM ^
Agree. 11-9 should get us in. This conference has been a blood bath this year. Most balanced the B1G has been in years and any team with a winning conference record should get in.
February 17th, 2022 at 10:03 PM ^
Not only that, but we drew an especially difficult conference schedule this year. We play most of the top teams twice, and face most of the bottom-feeders only once.
February 17th, 2022 at 10:05 PM ^
Yes. 11-9 in B1G play will get them in pretty safely. One win in the B1G tourney will just lock them in securely.
Something to keep in mind:
Maryland was a 10-seed last year. Their resume?
16-13 overall, 9-11 in the B1G, 1 B1G tourney win.
Even if Michigan skids to a 10-10 finish in the B1G, they are still right on the bubble, and one B1G tourney win will most likely send them through.
February 18th, 2022 at 12:01 AM ^
Yep, 11-9 is a virtual lock. 10-10 and they still have a good chance at the first four with a win in the first round of BTT.
February 17th, 2022 at 10:05 PM ^
double post
February 17th, 2022 at 9:47 PM ^
This was a big win tonight, yes I think we make it in your scenario. I also believe we might win more than 3 to close the season out.
February 17th, 2022 at 9:58 PM ^
I laughed at “sparty”… They’re certainly not trending up.
February 17th, 2022 at 10:01 PM ^
sparty might not be trending up, but they kicked our tail in EL. sometimes we're their kryptonite, sometimes its the other way around.
February 17th, 2022 at 10:21 PM ^
We kicked Purdue’s tail in Ann Arbor, we can do the same as to sparty - especially if they are doubting themselves
February 18th, 2022 at 12:15 AM ^
Oh we def can. And I think Michigan is the better team. We won't make the mistake of blitzing their screens, we'll get back on defense and they hopefully won't shoot lights out like they did in round 1 and we should win comfortably.
February 17th, 2022 at 10:05 PM ^
And trending up and playing well is huge at the end of the season. I would love to see us get in and seeded higher than those a-holes from East Lansing and their prick head coach.
February 17th, 2022 at 9:51 PM ^
Gotta play the games, but I think they will make it. #28 KenPom now. Would really be nice to get that win at Wisconsin.
February 17th, 2022 at 9:51 PM ^
I would think 18-14 would get them in
February 18th, 2022 at 12:17 AM ^
I think that'd be a lock. 17-14 is likely still an 11 seed and 17-15 probably still gets us to the first four.
February 17th, 2022 at 9:51 PM ^
18-14 would definitely make it in
Winning any 3 of the next 6 games would all be huge boosts since Rutger is now weirdly good. Honestly even 17-15 could maybe do it if they get wins at OSU and at Wisconsin
February 17th, 2022 at 9:54 PM ^
The most important win/loss stat for UM is their B1G record:
3-3 Gets UM to 11-9 in the B1G. A winning record in the B1G. That would probably get UM into the tourney.
2-4 UM finishes 10-10 in the B1G. The tourney committee wants teams that succeed more than fail in their individual conferences. I dont think UM makes the tourney if it finishes 2-4.
So, if UM needs to finish 3-3 or better to make the tourney, which three of the six remaining games is UM most likely to win?
#GoBlue
February 17th, 2022 at 9:54 PM ^
I don't want to NIT pick this team. But we're not making the tourney.
February 17th, 2022 at 10:00 PM ^
joe, don't be so mean.
February 17th, 2022 at 11:03 PM ^
He's currently suffering from a chlamydia-induced fever
February 18th, 2022 at 10:57 AM ^
C'mon. NIT pick. I thought it was clever. But yeah I hope we make it.
February 17th, 2022 at 9:57 PM ^
11-9 is in. If they keep playing to the standard since @ Illinois, 12-8 is very realistic.
February 17th, 2022 at 10:01 PM ^
Other than the Minnesota game they don't have any anchors on their resume and they do have a handful of nice wins - Purdue, @Iowa, @IU, SDSU, so if they go 3-3 against basically only top-25 teams + maybe the hottest team in the country in Rutgers they'll probably be in. I also think Illinois and Sparty are starting to show some cracks while Wisconsin is a weird team that has a nice record but also seems pretty mortal.
At the same time, they have absolutely no margin for error anymore. If they could have just pulled out that Seton Hall game and Minnesota games they'd be sitting much more comfortably in the tournament, and so it feels like it's going to be one of those years where every game feels like a heart attack waiting to happen.
The current Bracket Matrix has UM just on the outside looking in but they're obviously not taking into account this game and the other teams around them (Oregon, SMU, UAB, Dayton) are all well below UM in NET rating so that's likely a positive indicator of their upward mobility.
I think 17-13 with the "right" wins over that span probably gets them in and maybe even saves them the Dayton 11 vs 11 game if they win 2 games in the tourney. Today's win against Iowa was huge and winning @Wisconsin would be fantastic.
February 17th, 2022 at 10:36 PM ^
Not sure what you mean by margin of error, but they just need two more wins.
February 18th, 2022 at 12:23 AM ^
Yeah, that's a weird term to use at the same time he says they need to go 3-3. They can lose both remaining road games and a home game and still make it. There is obviously a cushion. And to your point, 2-4 might even be enough with a win in the BTT to make the first four.
February 18th, 2022 at 9:02 AM ^
I see that Dylan is saying two regular season and a win in the tournament, so perhaps I am off. Could have sworn that after the first Purdue game word was that we needed to put together five more, including--possibly--one in the tournament. At any rate, they now look to HAVE some small margin of error. . .
Would be fun if the perception were that we had cinched it--or consolidated our seeding--with a solid win over MSU at home on March 1.
February 18th, 2022 at 10:08 AM ^
I think we're being a bit overly optimistic about the team's outlook. If they go 2-4 they'll finish the year 16-14 with one signature win over Purdue and then a bunch of okay wins in all likelihood. Compared to even Rutgers, which has some terrible loses but also wins against the top half of the conference (many of them blowouts), we'd look pretty unimpressive. And per Bracket Matrix Rutgers isn't even in the next 4 out.
So again, I want to believe this team will make the tourney and maybe even skip the play-in game, but I also think we're a little high on our supply when it comes to evaluating this team's path to March.
February 18th, 2022 at 10:05 AM ^
My point is that they can't back into the tournament like in years past - the analogous season seems to be 2015-2016 when they snuck into the play-in game. There they ended the year 2-4 in the regular season, barely escaped NW and then had the walk-off win against Indiana that probably secured them the tourney spot. But they absolutely needed that win against IU, a top-10 team, to secure them into the tournament because of their poor finish. That team already had 20 wins to end the year and this team won't, and it already had a winning conference record (10-8) even with the bad finish. This team doesn't have that; if they go 2-4 to end the year they'll be 10-10 in conference, 16-14 overall, and then I'm not sure there's a run in the conference tournament save a win in the finals (or at least getting there) that makes me feel comfortable about them getting in.
That's what I mean by no margin for error.
February 18th, 2022 at 12:54 PM ^
Lunardi has us among the last four in this morning, fwiw. We're on an increasingly stable flight path since Dickinson came back from Covid, and Moussa and Kobe could not be coming along at a better possible time. I felt good even after the OSU loss; four games in seven days was just silly.
A lot may depend on Dickinson not just wearing out--I think that he's missing more bunnies because he's playing harder on defense, too, and much improvoed. No one is commenting this, but his success in the NBA would also in part be predicated on whether he can play D--I had been skeptical. His game has come some way.
I'm optimistic, but it's true that things like inconsistent reffing, variables beyond immediate view, could yet decide. . .
February 17th, 2022 at 10:02 PM ^
Tonight was a big step. I agree 3-3 gets us in.
With our remaining schedule, every win is gonna be big - 4 of 6 against ranked teams, both Iowa and Rutgers can be tough.
A win at Wisconsin would sure ease some of the pressure!
February 17th, 2022 at 10:03 PM ^
If we finish 18-14 as you say I think it would be hard to keep them out although definitely matters how large the bubble is. This win tonight was huge because it keeps up the momentum. We’ll be in the field in the next Lunardi reveal. A win at Wisconsin would be really big and put us solidly in the field. We have done what we needed with getting at least one win but two this week and we are ahead of schedule.
February 17th, 2022 at 10:05 PM ^
If we have 18+ wins, we're in for sure. Our schedule strength is nuts - we've played the #4 schedule in the country per KenPom and our remaining slate doesn't get any easier.
February 17th, 2022 at 10:06 PM ^
Right now we past the eye test, but we failed that test for 2+ months. Win some and were in I guess? Im not sure but I hope the guys play their hearts out for a bud. Go blue
February 18th, 2022 at 7:56 AM ^
Budweiser is terrible
February 17th, 2022 at 10:10 PM ^
Michigan struggles with inconsistency...sometimes they look great, other times bad.
I think they will make the tournament, but it'll be just barely.
February 17th, 2022 at 10:14 PM ^
18-14 gets us in; maybe play-in. I think 19 is the safe number to be in and avoid the play-in
February 18th, 2022 at 12:26 AM ^
Nah, you're off by a win. 18 is a lock, 17 is a likely first four. 19 would get us all the way to to the 9 seed line, probably.
February 17th, 2022 at 10:16 PM ^
I think if we go .500 to finish out and win one B1G tourney game, then I think we are one of the bubble teams to make it in. That loss at home to OSU hurts!
February 17th, 2022 at 10:27 PM ^
Actually the UCF and Minnesota losses are far worse than OSU, which wasn't good of course but those aren't going to look good to the committee.
February 17th, 2022 at 10:18 PM ^
Your scenario should get them in, they'd have a couple more Quad 1 wins which they really need to solidify their resume. If they lost to Rutgers though, things could get dicey. The net is probably not going to be a problem for them, right now they're 3-7 vs Q1 teams, that will be the issue, Rutgers is 6-3 vs Q1 even though their net is 75 before today's games.
February 17th, 2022 at 10:20 PM ^
My (totally lacking any expertise) opinion:
•With 19 wins (including going 4-2 to close out the schedule): ~99% chance we're in
•With 18 wins: anywhere from 70-90% chance depending heavily upon getting a couple quad 1 wins. If we lose three quad 1 games but win one B1G tournament game to reach 18 I think we're in but we might need some help in the form of failure by other bubble-ish teams.
If we go 2-4 to finish out and then win 2 tournament games we're still not guaranteed a spot @18-15.
•With 17 wins, we're likely at best 20% chance of the Big Dance and probably looking at the NIT schedule.
•16 wins: hello slim and none
February 17th, 2022 at 10:50 PM ^
That's too pessmistic. We've played a very difficult schedule and one of our gimme games was cancelled due to Covid.
17 wins in the regular season makes us a near lock - that means a winning Big Ten record and a bunch of Quadrant 1 wins.
16 regular-season wins put us on the bubble. Then, one BTT win probably does the job.
If we have 18 or more wins, we definitely have a bid.
February 17th, 2022 at 11:29 PM ^
Maybe a bit too pessimistic on my part, but the win totals I used are based upon a combination of regular season and B1G tournament games, mostly with the need included for at least one tournament victory. Sorry I didn't make myself more crystal clear on this at the top of my post, though I did mention it a few times further down.
17 regular season wins (11-9 B1G) should be good enough, but getting a tourney win and reaching 18 total wins would make me feel much more optimistic.
But if we finish 2-4 and end up 16-14 (10-10) I think it's a must to win a game or two in Indy.
February 17th, 2022 at 10:21 PM ^
Oregon down in the 2nd half to Arizona St. Any losses for other bubble teams certainly helps.
February 17th, 2022 at 11:02 PM ^
Following up on this, Michigan indeed got some help on this front. 9-15 Arizona State just crushed Oregon. Creighton and DePaul is a 2 pt game at the half. We’re rooting for the Blue Demons in this game.
February 17th, 2022 at 10:29 PM ^
Jawohl!!
February 17th, 2022 at 10:33 PM ^
I think 18-14 is a realistic record for the team this year, and would be just enough to sneak in. I've had to significantly recalibrate my expectations this year, and making the tournament would feel like a big accomplishment at this point. I think they'll get it done.
February 17th, 2022 at 10:34 PM ^
Yeah, we're good. There are easily two more wins to be found in that slate. A win in the tourney--which I would almost guarantee--given two more regular-season wins--will sugar-coat it.
February 17th, 2022 at 10:41 PM ^
Here's a bold prediction. We go 5-1 to close the regular season, win the first B1G tourney game and finish the season 20-12. Tournament time...
Feels like the young team is gelling at the right time. Moussa is starting to play up to his lofty HS ranking. Caleb is still a work in progress. And maybe Kobe is coming into his own? There is so much upside to this team as they learn and grow.