Recalibrating Expectations After Week One
Was able to watch several games yesterday with teams on our schedule that we considered somewhere between likely loss/likely win territory and came away feeling encouraged about Michigan's chances.
Washington - feels like a must win at this point. They struggled mightily offensively and obviously lost to a (good) FCS opponent.
Wisconsin - Still will be tough but Mertz is not a five star talent and their skill positions are underwhelming. Can DL manage to not get gashed?
Nebraska - looks like they're playing in 3/4 speed. Very bad team.
Northwestern - Don't have any guys and their run fits looked awful against MSU. Will be a rough year for them.
Indiana - I expect them to be 4-4 at best when they come to town. They aren't ready for big time football and weren't remotely competitive against Iowa. We were told lies about this team but they are not a NY6 Contending outfit.
Penn St - still going to be a tough game and despite their best attempts to lose yesterday won a tough one on the road, but Clifford is very average.
Overall seeing a lot more mediocrity on the schedule than many anticipated going into this week. If Michigan can manage to be good, going into OSU at 10-1 feels within the realm of possibility, and chances of missing a bowl game seem slim. Of course, we could set fire to this whole thing next week, but wanted to see where everyone's heads are at. Go Blue!
September 5th, 2021 at 2:38 PM ^
It's ONE game.
Christ.
How is that nearly enough data?
It's not.
And the OP's notion that Wisconsin isn't as good as advertised is delusional.
Wisconsin has one of the best backs in the league and their O-line is just as huge as ever. If Michigan plays like they did yesterday against Wisconsin, Michigan will lose badly.
September 5th, 2021 at 6:25 PM ^
I agree with much of what you say but a lack of data is no reason to be pessimistic. I could be neutral, as logic dictates, but as a fan it makes me a lot happier viewing a lack of data as reason for optimism.
September 5th, 2021 at 10:38 AM ^
Ore season top 25s are generally more accurate than those post week 1
September 5th, 2021 at 11:22 AM ^
Exactly.
Last year (2020) - Minnesota...then MSU. After 3 games we were 1-2 and had a good idea what that team was.
2017, beat the BREAKS off Florida...lose 5 games on the season.
2019, turnovers but easily beat MTSU...then almost lose to Army the very next week.
An Army team that finished the year ranked #94 with wins over Rice, UTSA, UMASS, VMI and Morgan St.
Week 3 Wisconsin destroys us.
All I'm saying is if you said 7-5 or 8-4 before the season...there is nothing to make you come off that prediction.
September 5th, 2021 at 11:18 AM ^
I’m not sure I agree with this sentiment. I’ve seen it lots of places.
We have all seen this game before - Michigan playing a cupcake and winning by a real 17 points. This was not that game - we effectively won by 30+ Until we had the last people on the bench in the game.
This is a MAC team but that is a good qb who was shut down. We’ve seen lesser qbs turn into world beaters. I’m not anointing our defense top 20 but this was encouraging they could be top 50 ish which I’ll take. Real OL to be tested against. They did have what, a seventh year and two or three sixth years on the OL which means a bunch of 24 and a 25 year olds which does provide more old man strength.
I think this puts the fooor up a win. And also agree lots of turd play this weekend. Mertz- yeesh. Pennix has a great arm but good lord did he like throwing to the wrong team.
September 5th, 2021 at 12:10 PM ^
This is a MAC team but that is a good qb who was shut down. We’ve seen lesser qbs turn into world beaters.
Look no further than the 2020 MSU game where Rocky Lombardi lit up our secondary with impossible bomb after impossible bomb.
September 5th, 2021 at 6:28 PM ^
sir, no 24 or even 25 year old has any amount of old man strength.
now get off my lawn.
September 5th, 2021 at 12:06 PM ^
I'd like to introduce you to a little concept called "Bayesian updating". New data are new data, and small updates are still updates! And if your win probability against Washington is the same as it was 48 hours ago, I'd gently suggest that you revise your model.
September 5th, 2021 at 9:52 AM ^
I have been one to be cautiously optimistic with this team and season. I thought the QB play looked really, really solid. Cade seems to have the leadership traits necessary, and McCarthy is just a straight up talent. The RBs looked really good, very active with some bounce, at least the top 3. They will have to really bring it week in and week out to get an outcome like you suggested, but it's not outside the realm of possibility. Go get Washington and beat the shit out of them.
September 5th, 2021 at 12:13 PM ^
There is “Had a bad game”
and then there is “Lost to Montana”
September 5th, 2021 at 4:03 PM ^
Heh. After the Horror, there weren't too many people on this board saying 'one game tells you nothing'.
September 5th, 2021 at 9:54 AM ^
I'd say that 8-4 is now slightly more likely than 7-5, which is better than the reverse of that where we were 24 hrs ago.
Wash, you can't tell how that'll go. Either this wakes them up and they have the best week of practice or they are not great, Bob.
Neb, NW, IU, Wisc are marginally worse than expected. Maybe MSU and PSU a tick better. Overall I still wouldn't expect more than 8 wins. Beat Wisc on the road, now we're talking 10 potentially.
September 5th, 2021 at 9:55 AM ^
It’s week 1 and we played Western. Washington will get their crap together for next week. It will be a different team in A2 and folks will be saying - ‘how is a team that lost to Montana playing us so tough?’
September 5th, 2021 at 10:09 AM ^
Can we move the kickoff time to noon? (9 AM Pacific time).
September 5th, 2021 at 10:36 AM ^
Washington will no doubt play better. I did like the comments made after the game by Hutchinson.
Good news is I don’t think the comments made by the players and Harbaugh after the game were meaningless. They can point to 2020 Minnesota and MSU game to show why it’s not wise to not respect an opponent.
September 5th, 2021 at 10:36 AM ^
Outside of the recruiting hit, I'd be all for it.
Make IU the night game (though first week of November).
September 5th, 2021 at 11:57 AM ^
And pretend it's the home opener?
All BS aside, Cade, Blake and co. look different this season.
The defensive secondary has some deficiencies but hasn't had someone with serious closing speed since Jabrill left, in Dax Hill.
September 5th, 2021 at 9:56 AM ^
- Must win - Western, NIU, Rutgers, Nebraska, NW, MSU, Maryland (Need to win 6/7)
- Toss up - Wash, Wiscy, PSU, Indiana (Need to win 2/4)
- Likely loss - OSU (Need to not give up 100 pts)
8-4 with wins against Wash & Indiana and losses against Maryland, Wiscy, PSU, & OSU.
September 5th, 2021 at 10:06 AM ^
I share your concern about Maryland. Our guys will play them the week before the Buckeyes which gives us plenty of time to watch and make adjustments.
September 5th, 2021 at 10:37 AM ^
Maryland’s defense is awful. I think they would have smacked us around last year. They’ll definitely score points but based on one week I think we’ll handle them.
September 5th, 2021 at 11:22 AM ^
They’ll definitely score points but based on one week I think we’ll handle them.
Keep in mind we play them on the road sandwiched between PSU & OSU. They will have the rare luxury of being both a trap game while UM is looking ahead to OSU and a let down game after PSU at the same time.
September 5th, 2021 at 11:59 AM ^
I think “trap” and “letdown” games are attempts to explain the wide variation of outcomes seen in college football from week to week based on where they happen to fall on the schedule. Did a team have an emotional letdown the following week of a big win, or did a bunch of small things not go their way that did the week before? I’m inclined to believe the latter.
September 5th, 2021 at 3:08 PM ^
Ohio’s chance to “drop 100” on us was last year with Justin Fields at the helm. CJ isn’t near the talent at this stage.
September 5th, 2021 at 9:58 AM ^
It’s too early to know what we and others have. Just one game. I still think Washington has talent especially on defense according to people who watched the game, although again one game, so if our offense runs wild that will be a good sign. Got to keep improving week to week.
September 5th, 2021 at 9:59 AM ^
I always see us at 12-0 until we lose a game, and then I see us at 11-1. I prefer looking at things as optimistically as possible. The only times I have been disappointed have been in those rare instances under Rodriguez and Hoke where it looked like the team's effort was less than 100%. If the team is fighting to win (their job), then I am cheering for them (my job as a fan and alum).
September 5th, 2021 at 12:20 PM ^
+1 MILLION POINTS FOR YOU, JACK. My biggest beef with the Harbaugh regime is that they've looked 100% unmotivated in many of their losses (and some of their wins). I think that's been the missing piece for this program - if they can get up to play, I think they can beat almost anybody. That's all I really want to see out of the team this season. GO GET 'EM AND GO BLUE!!
September 5th, 2021 at 9:59 AM ^
National champions! Ok mayb not but i can see us winning 9 games comfortably now. Washington, NW, and Nebraska looked like hot garbage and Wisconsin indiana didnt impress me at all. Add those with NIU and Rutgers and 9 wins is very realistic. The road games at Penn state and michigan state worry me more now but we have a shot to start 7-0
September 5th, 2021 at 10:00 AM ^
Just remember how well we looked in week one last year before it all went to shit .
I share your enthusiasm , but i cant forget the past .
September 5th, 2021 at 10:00 AM ^
7-5.....nothing changed yesterday or my thoughts. Middle of D is still a concern.
September 5th, 2021 at 10:39 AM ^
Will be interesting to see if MacDonald changes his defense based on opponent as much as he said he would. Seemed the goal yesterday was bend don’t break and try to limit the talented QB Western has.
How will we do against Wisconsin, MSU and teams that are going to be more physical. That’ll be interesting to find out.
September 5th, 2021 at 10:01 AM ^
While encouraging as the WMU victory was, I'll need to see how well Michigan does against Washington.
While Wisc and Indiana do not look that good after week 1, it doesn't change my mind until Michigan can roll up a string of early season victories. I'll focus on Michigan's ability to play well on a consistent basis for the rest of this month.
Add to that that Sparty looks better than expected and Maryland has an explosive offense. The Eastern B1G looks as tough as ever.
September 5th, 2021 at 10:03 AM ^
Western's record is 4-2, 7-6, 7-6, 6-6 the last four years.
While the defense was much better than expected and the offense flashed some explosion play ability, I learned my lesson last year after beating Minnesota handily....
Not to mention that we don't know how losing Bell affects this team going forward...
I always thought Washington should have been a 'should win' game, even before their loss to Montana... Lake is coaching in his 6th game ever as a head coach and they lost 3-4 starters on defense to the NFL... their QB is a young as McNamara and they are on the road...
Definitely think the team is looking better though, but we won't really see what it truly is until the road game at Wisconsin.
September 5th, 2021 at 11:40 AM ^
I'm surprised the Bell injury hasn't been brought up more, and rather surface record guesstimates have been made. It looks like we lost our best WR for the season. While it may benefit the other guys to get more playing time and becoming The Guy in getting more playing time, I do think that this hurts in the short term (next 4 games) especially. I think that one of our biggest issues the last couple years has been the lack of playmakers on both sides of the ball. Losing one on the offensive side is big negative.
September 5th, 2021 at 10:45 PM ^
yeah, I think people are just having a tough time accepting it. Bell is a significant loss.
However, it there was on position group that had depth, it was the WR room.
sainristil, henning, wilson... one of them, or collectively, need to fill Bell's shoes. Both Henning and Wilson flashed last game, albeit on the jet sweep...but their speed is something that teams will have to prep for. Johnson and Baldwin can play as well. Maybe more screens with Corum...
Explosion plays can rip the heart out of a defense...The talent is there, but they gotta threaten the deep ball at least on occasion.
Just gotta hope they have a stategy.
September 5th, 2021 at 10:04 AM ^
I'm just enjoying not watching moronic mistakes. I don't expect perfection on every play, but the play calling and the defensive plan seemed to make sense generally and I'll take that at this point.
I'm way more confident that we'll have an interesting season vs. an infuriating one after yesterday. What that means for the record, who knows.
September 5th, 2021 at 10:52 AM ^
Play calling didn't seem to make much sense to me. We still have this insistence on running into a stacked box every 1st down, and our OL wasn't exactly making holes against a middling MAC defense. The QB run is still completely absent from the read game. Corum and Haskins may be great but they're not gonna be able to churn out yards on their own like that against the better defenses in the Big Ten.
We took some shots downfield at least, so there's that.
September 5th, 2021 at 12:28 PM ^
I hope that was based on the opponent, but there’s a really good chance I’m wrong about that.
September 5th, 2021 at 10:07 AM ^
Our talent level on offense seems pretty high but our insistence on killing clock rather than scoring points doesn't fill me with hope. But I also watched some of the teams on our schedule and didn't see much that scared me. So shrug emoji.
September 5th, 2021 at 10:11 AM ^
Let's slow the roll. Both lines played admirably, but will they be able to do that against bigger & better lines? Western was wore out by halftime.
September 5th, 2021 at 10:12 AM ^
Expectations aren’t changing after one week of games. You have teams still shaking off the rust and working out the kinks. Need more data
September 5th, 2021 at 10:15 AM ^
I'm staying with my prediction of 8-4 (with a floor of 7-5, and 9-3 being entirely attainable).
Yes, the schedule looks like it *might* be a little softer than anticipated, but then again, we lost one of our biggest offensive weapons for an undetermined amount of time yesterday when Bell went out.
The only game that matters right now, Washington, was already on my projected win column. I also don't put too much weight on Game One results for college games.
Beat Washington next week and it's highly likely we start 4-0. The problem is, come October we finally get tested on the road and have only one home game. And in November it seems not to matter whatsoever where we play ohio st.
September 5th, 2021 at 10:23 AM ^
And I'm staying with my 9-3 call. Everything I hoped to see yesterday with the team I saw. If you watch JDue's tweets this am you saw a TON of good little things the team did that were largely absent last year.
I'm very encouraged.
September 5th, 2021 at 12:34 PM ^
/runs to Twitter/
September 5th, 2021 at 3:25 PM ^
I'm gonna stick with my 7-1 when Indiana comes to town predication. At that point, I will be in wait and see mode as we have never finished strong in the Harbaugh era. Bottom line, yesterday was encouraging. They played with energy and they looked they were having some fun out there. That can take a team a long way.
September 5th, 2021 at 10:16 AM ^
The B1G looks worrisomely weak. Could be one of the worst years in a while for the conference. For now, Michigan at least appears to be one of the teams on the upswing, rather than the several on the downswing
September 5th, 2021 at 11:42 AM ^
I'm not sure I agree with this, at least in comparative terms.
OSU is its usual juggernaut. PSU, Iowa, and Wisconsin look like 9-10 win teams.
Illinois and Northwestern are rebuilding. Rutgers and MSU are programs ripe for second year bounces. Maryland and Minnesota are going to be roller coasters.
(Nebraska and Purdue are just bad.)
So basically the conference strength seems about normal, with Michigan and Indiana being the two wild cards, with one guaranteed to be better than expected and the other worse. Let's hope we're the better!
September 5th, 2021 at 12:16 PM ^
Honestly, the BIG looks good this year. If we beat UW next week then we pass the eye test as a conference.
The ACC on the other hand looks a bit weak. And UCLA looks like the best PAC team.
Losing Ronnie Bell was sad. That ref calling passing interference will never sit well with me. Ever.
September 5th, 2021 at 3:21 PM ^
That Ronnie Bell catch could well be the best catch of the year in CFB taken away by one of the worst calls you will see this year. Only from a John O'Neill crew. How those fuckers still get B1G games is beyond me.
September 5th, 2021 at 4:59 PM ^
It’s very possible Wisconsin and PSU are 9-10 win teams, but that wasn’t my takeaway from their rock fight yesterday. I think both of those teams lose to the 2019 iteration of themselves. But who knows. It’s one week. All I know is that Michigan played some of the best football in the conference, with strength of opponent a major and meaningful caveat