Our chances if it rains
Do you think this offense is better or worse in the rain? As I was driving to work in the rain this morning, I remembered what I was thinking as it rained for the game at ND last year. I thought, Damn! I figured that, just like when ND or other schools let their grass grow thick and heavy to slow down opposing offenses, the rain would bog down our supposedly quicker guys and hurt our chances. I am also thinking, though, that a run heavy spread O might be a better option in the weather than a pass happy O. As we play in Michigan and rain and sleet and snow are definately in our immediate and long term futures, do you think this offense will end up hurting us in a game or two a year, or does it have some advantages in bad weather. (I am not going to use the ND game last year as evidence either way, as the offense had a LONG way to go at that point.)
August 28th, 2009 at 9:51 AM ^
I would say it depends on the turf.
With artificial turf, the rain will probably increase turnovers more in this spread offense than some of the teams we face without much of an advantage to the offense due to slipping.
With real grass, I think the slipping gives the offense a distinct advantage that would outweigh the turnovers.
August 28th, 2009 at 1:09 PM ^
I've never played football, but wouldn't slipping directly correlate with increased turnovers? And if you're slipping on both natural and artificial turf, then I think it would be a wash.
However, artificial turf like that in Ford Field and Michigan Stadium are engineered materials. This may be a false assumption, but I would think they have been designed to reduce slipping when compared to natural turf. Additionally, the field turf stuff is made with ground up rubber, which would probably promote better drainage when compared to a hard packed natural surface.
My thinking is we would have reduced turnovers on field turf and less slipping meaning the speed of our players would still have an advantage. Then again, both teams have to face the same conditions, so does it really matter?
August 28th, 2009 at 4:13 PM ^
What I was trying to say (obviously not too well) was that the wet ball would result in more turnovers.
The slipping I was referring to: when an offensive player makes a cut he knows where he is going and is less likely to slip than the defensive player. Advantage offense. But, slipping would be less on artificial turf. Thus, less of an advantage to the offense.
August 28th, 2009 at 9:55 AM ^
Early forecast is a high of 75 and 60% chance of showers.. we're still 8 days away so there's some wiggle room but I'd like it to stay dry.
August 28th, 2009 at 11:38 AM ^
where you are looking but weather.com is showing high of 75 and 30% of showers for next saturday....
http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USMI0028?from=36hr_fcst10DayLink_…
August 28th, 2009 at 9:55 AM ^
And that is based on WMU's dependence on the passing game and our ability to rely on Minor Rage (assuming a healthy Minor doesn't fumble).
I'd rather be a running team in the rain than a passing team
August 28th, 2009 at 9:55 AM ^
on what kind of rain it is.
some kinds of rain make you slower. Some kinds make you faster. Others do nothing.
August 28th, 2009 at 9:59 AM ^
What?! I am an old baseball player, so I have heard of high and low skies, etc. but I have never heard of fast rains and slow rains. Can you explain?
August 28th, 2009 at 10:14 AM ^
You are not alone, I was wondering the same thing.
My theory - fast rain is the kind of rain that you get when you have pacman jones out there, making it rain and you need to get out of the club fast. Not sure how that would affect our football team though.
August 28th, 2009 at 10:16 AM ^
is chocolate rain
August 28th, 2009 at 2:41 PM ^
Sometimes you win
Sometimes you lose
Sometimes it rains.
Thanks Crash.
August 28th, 2009 at 11:30 PM ^
about Chubby Rain
The most dangerous of all rains
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjJlRRdIC1I
August 28th, 2009 at 9:56 AM ^
Rain obviously affects all aspects of the game, but it's largely been my belief that it most significantly affects the passing game (for obvious reasons: ball slips out of QBs hands, harder to catch, etc.). Rodriguez has been able to establish one of the most potent and effective running games in the past and will likely have similar packages at M. Unless you assume that we suffer more turnovers because of rain than other teams, I would assume that the ability to go to an effective, run-heavy attack would benefit our team against teams that air it out (in the rain, anyway).
August 28th, 2009 at 1:19 PM ^
I wish I could remember who, but I have a distinct memory from my childhood of an NFL coach explaining that, in his opinion, rain gave passing teams an advantage. His reasoning was this:
WRs know the routes they are going to run, while CBs must read and react. In the rain, it is more likely that a CB will slip trying to react, so there will be more big plays with busted coverage.
Although RBs know roughly where they are going on a play, they are also essentially reading and reacting, looking for a quick cut into a hole. So long as a defense just occupies the running lanes (rather than trying to make a play), the RB carries all the risk of slipping.
It sticks with me because I always thought it was such a counter-intuitive analysis, but interesting nonetheless.
August 28th, 2009 at 9:57 AM ^
Forecasts more than 2-3 days out are as reliable as picking lottery numbers. Wait until next Thursday to worry about the weather.
August 28th, 2009 at 10:00 AM ^
Cosign.
Anyone from the Midwest will tell you the weather forecast is wildly inaccurate even 4 or 5 days out.
August 28th, 2009 at 10:12 AM ^
As us Michiganders are prone to saying, "if you don't like the weather in Michigan, just wait 5 minutes."
August 28th, 2009 at 12:13 PM ^
"If you don't like the weather in Michigan, go the hell back where you came from!"
August 28th, 2009 at 11:21 AM ^
"the weather forecast is wildly inaccurate even 4 or 5 days out."
You're welcome.
August 28th, 2009 at 10:01 AM ^
My question is a little more generic, about the offense in general.
August 28th, 2009 at 10:01 AM ^
good post, i was tracking the same issue last night drifiting off to dreamland. i think our biggest rain liability might come from fielding kickoffs if these dudes haven't learned to hold onto the damn ball yet. otherwise, we just go run heavy and steamroll 'em.
August 28th, 2009 at 2:43 PM ^
All you have to do is prevent the opponent from scoring, then you only have to worry about fielding one kickoff all day.
August 28th, 2009 at 10:02 AM ^
the Weather channel said sunny, today, they say rain. Who knows.
To answer your question, we were only hurt during the ND game because of fumbles (which may have been caused by rain, but hey ND didn't fumble 6 times in the same rain).
Fumbles are random, according to MGoBlog research, so you can't blame the rain for causing us to fumble more than ND.
Since our O moved the ball well against ND in a downpour last year, I don't think it hurts us much. It will, however make tailgating less fun!
August 28th, 2009 at 10:03 AM ^
I dont think it will impact the football team.
It will impact me as it will liekly make me drink more during the tailgate.
August 28th, 2009 at 10:05 AM ^
during a lightning storm is faster due to the increased nitrogen content. Farmers also prefer this kind of rain.
August 28th, 2009 at 10:47 AM ^
Don't they usually put games on hold if there is a lightning storm? I thought they had to if there was a lightning strike that was within X miles of the stadium.
X = I forget
August 28th, 2009 at 11:22 AM ^
I noticed during my time on campus that Ann Arbor has a serious lack of lightning. I only saw it maybe 10 times over the span of a few years. I thought it the weirdest thing ever.
The growing standard for lightning suspensions is slowly going to 6-8 miles. I'm not sure if the NCAA has a standard yet, but I'd have to assume they do.
While training to become a baseball umpire at the high school level, they told us if you can hear thunder and you don't have a lightning detector, you're well within your means to suspend the game right then.
August 28th, 2009 at 1:24 PM ^
If I'm not mistaken, one of the games two or three years ago was delayed due to lightning. I was listening on the radio at the time, so I don't know what they did with all the people in the stadium.
August 28th, 2009 at 1:28 PM ^
It was the CMU game. And by the time everyone got out of the bowl, the rain had basically stopped.
August 28th, 2009 at 3:03 PM ^
Yup, and I believe it was the first time the stadium had ever been evacuated for lightning.
August 28th, 2009 at 4:21 PM ^
Use of the words "evacuated" and "everyone got out of the bowl" are way hyperbolic.
I was there and only about 1/2 (if that many) of the folks ever left. If you've ever been in the Big House, it takes a LOOOOOOOONNNNNNNGGGGGGGG time for everyone to hit the exits.
Also, there was no place to actually go. (We never left our seats, so I am not sure if they opened all the gates or not.)
This may be one reason the aisles are being widened. May be required by law? (Anyone know?)
August 28th, 2009 at 10:05 AM ^
I am flying in from Tampa on Thurs. and really need relief from this low 90 degree w/ 100% humidity weather I am wasting away in.
August 28th, 2009 at 10:08 AM ^
OK, I am running the risk of sounding stupid here, but are you being serious, or are you just a chimp with a gun?
August 28th, 2009 at 10:11 AM ^
Great topic. I brought the same thing up on the last WLA podcast. PaulVB seems to think that on the turf, it really won't affect us too much. He touched around the "worse for passing" issue as well.
I'm wondering how pass happy WMU will be this year. The do return their QB with all the stats, but they also lack WRs. How's their running back? Do we know? Where's our opponent preview? We got 2010 UCONN already? Where's 09 WMU?
August 28th, 2009 at 10:16 AM ^
For a podcast mention before it's been released. We also talk about Fat Charlie Weis. The podcast should be up middle of next week.
August 28th, 2009 at 10:22 AM ^
Just so I'm clear on the premise:
Rain will make our fast players slower, but will have no impact on the oppositions slow players. So - rain:
- Fast players suffer
- Slow players impervious to it's effects
August 28th, 2009 at 10:25 AM ^
Rain makes fast players more slippery and slow players heavier. e-fact
August 28th, 2009 at 10:31 AM ^
basically yes. Stronger slower players are more even on a slower track. Just like horse that are considered mudders. It is no secret that bigger slower teams often use tricks in the playing surface such as letting it grow a little longer, watering it a little more, etc. to give themselves an advantage.
August 28th, 2009 at 10:22 AM ^
Elno is correct about the increased nitrogen content in rain. A great way to make your garden grow fuller and greener is to fart on your plants right before you water them.
August 29th, 2009 at 5:38 PM ^
Yeah, but I thought farts were mostly methane? How do the nitrogen and methane interact?
August 28th, 2009 at 10:27 AM ^
This post is both hilarious and sad, I love it.
August 28th, 2009 at 11:15 AM ^
I remind you of the ND last year.
Wet turf might help the offense, but rain has a tendency to bring Epic Fumbling Fail.
I'd say that (a) it's more or less a wash (get it... wash?), and (b) I'd MUCH rather watch a game on a sunny day.
August 28th, 2009 at 4:42 PM ^
I was at the game too. It was cloudy but did not rain until well after the fumbles at the start of the game. As I recall, the rain started around the end of the second quarter or perhaps not until the second half. Rain did not cause those fumbles.
But, it did F*ing pour for about an entire quarter making an M comeback impossible (it was only 28-17 at the half).
August 28th, 2009 at 11:37 AM ^
lightning rain is faster, but the lightning stops you from playing. So, in the end, it all evens out.
August 28th, 2009 at 12:36 PM ^
Like rain on your opening day?
August 28th, 2009 at 11:40 AM ^
it's always sunny on opening day. no worries.
August 28th, 2009 at 11:50 AM ^
I have more confidence forecasting the weather in Tempe next Saturday
August 28th, 2009 at 12:02 PM ^
Tempe forecast:
Cloudy, moderate chance of shaving.
August 28th, 2009 at 1:27 PM ^
they always shave Tempe, so the likelihood is 100%. Everybody knows that.