probably about welcome week. or fish. but probably welcome week.
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Recent Comments
| Date | Title | Body |
|---|---|---|
| 15 weeks 1 day ago | Actually, No |
I started looking at TOs in 2009 and Phil Steele is wrong on several accounts. http://mgoblog.com/diaries/turnover-analysis-part-2-do-turnovers-turnaround 1. Turnovers are not primarily luck. Many teams have positve double digit TOs for several years in a row and many others have negative double digit TOs for several years in a row (I'm looking at you M in 2008-2010). Luck does not explain this. 2. The teams Steele isolates (those with double-digit turnovers) are the teams whose TOM is primarily due to performance and not luck. Therefore his basic premise is incorrect. Even if the double-digit TOM was primarily due to luck, there is no cause and effect. The percentage of teams that “turnaround” the next season is approximately the same when TOM is completely ignored. From 1999 to the present, 72% of all FBS teams that had a winning record of at least +2 (7-5 or better) had the same or weaker records the next year regardless of TOM. This includes approximately 50 teams each year. (Steele: 77% for the teams with double-digit turnovers.) From 1999 to the present, 74% of all FBS teams that had a losing record of at least -2 (5-7 or worse) had the same or stronger records the next year regardless of TOM. This includes approximately 43 teams each year. (Steele: 80% for the teams with double-digit turnovers.) Basically, it is very difficult for winning teams to keep on winning at the same rate and very difficult for losing teams to keep on losing at the same rate regardless of what TOM happens to be. |
| 20 weeks 2 days ago | Plan On It |
"Win will cause me to... ...........Also enjoy life." Me Too! |
| 22 weeks 1 day ago | Huh? |
Yes, I think that college football athletes should be the place we take a stand that all "employees" deserve and should be paid a "fair" wage. (/Sarcasm!!) |
| 22 weeks 1 day ago | Interceptions? |
What about the INTs?? In 2010 the Int% (ints per pass attempts) was 3.8% and it skyrocketed to 5.8% this year. On a game by game basis, there does not seem to be much of a trend as it bounced all over the place. |
| 23 weeks 5 days ago | There's No Crying In Football! |
Jeez, someone needs to tell those kids that the F-bomb is a perfectly sane way to react -- but crying??? -- no way! |
| 24 weeks 1 day ago | Agreed |
Yes, with two different players saying that M busted the same coverage on the 2 ohio TDs, my vote goes to the players not executing rather than RPS. |
| 25 weeks 1 day ago | Just A Fumble |
Hagerup was charged with a fumble but since he recovered his own fumble, no turnover. |
| 25 weeks 1 day ago | You Are Right |
Yikes, that completely escaped me. That ends up to be worth 3.02 EP in advantage to M. Thanks for the catch. BTW, I have no idea why certain items (blocked punts, blocked FG, safeties, etc.) are not considered to officialy be a turnover. |
| 25 weeks 1 day ago | I Agree! |
Yes, any analysis of sports is inherently flawed. And, I have made major changes in trying to understand the impact of turnovers. But, simply counting turnovers or using an "average" value for each turnover seems more flawed than most other analysis. (The only analysis that is worse is looking at turnover margin for an entire year -- yes, I mean you Mr. Steele.) For now, Expected Points seem to be the most reasonable at reflecting the factors involved in the impact of a turnover by considering down, distance, type of turnover, etc. I will be doing a year-end review next week and will be making some more changes to better understand turnovers and turnover margin. |
| 26 weeks 5 days ago | Where To Begin? |
Not sure I understand a lot of this comment. But, here goes. (1) All data is thru the first 10 games (this year and 2010). Last 2 games in 2010 were Wisc and osu. Last 2 games this year are Neb and osu. Data seems as comparable as you are likely to get. (2) So, you are saying that the fact that M's opponents had 16% fewer plays thru 10 games had no impact on the points they scored? That seems unrealistic. Therefore, I concluded that tempo had an impact. (3) I'll take another look at the data correlation (see 3a below). That said, if you belive TOs are primarily luck then you must also belive that RR was about the most unlucky coach on the planet (3 straight years of double digit negative turnover margin) and Brady Hoke is just getting lucky this year. I just find that hard to believe. (3a) Here's a great site for TO analysis: http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/takeaways-per-game I have been looking mainly at won-loss record versus turnover margin. In a previous diary http://mgoblog.com/diaries/turnover-analysis-part-2-do-turnovers-turnaround there was a good correlation. I'll have to look closer at the defensive correlation over the past several years. |
