this week in unintentionally grim-sounding recruiting headlines
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|16 weeks 19 hours ago||And this team?||
How many guys on this year's team so you expect to be a first, second, or third round draft pick over the next five years? Jabrill is this team's Brandon Graham. Beyond him, I think the best odds are for Jourdan Lewis, Mason Cole, and Jake Butt. I'm not confident that any of the three will make the third round (though I certainly hope so). We have a lot of athletes with potential (guys like Taco Charlton, Willie Henry, Lawrence Marshall, and Derrick Green), but none of them have done enough yet to be in the same conversation with folks like Mike Martin.
|36 weeks 6 days ago||You really think this is||
You really think this is disrepectful, WD? Lunardi has been surprisingly accurate in his pre-season assessments of Michigan.
Last November, he projected us as a 3 seed. We were a 2 in March.
November 2012, he projected us a 3 seed. We were a 4.
November 2011, he projected us as a 5 seed. We were a 4.
If Lunardi tells me we're a 7 seed, I think that's gotta be pretty reasonable.
|37 weeks 8 hours ago||Probably.||
Your question is interesting. Your post muddies it entirely.
Hoke has done well at some of the things I want our coach to do (his players have graduated, for example). I am worried that a replacement might be worse at those things.
Hoke has struggled at one of the most important things, however: winning football games consistently. The single best argument for firing him is that some other coach is likely to do this one thing better.
If some magic genie could predict the future and informed me that retaining Hoke would result in winning exactly 10 regular-season games next year (including OSU), I would jkeep him. (If the genie told me that we would only win 10 games total, losing to OSU and MSU, I would probably not keep him.)
None of this depends on the schedule.
|42 weeks 16 hours ago||That's one way...||
I was kinda hoping we'd win a few games by having the opponent forfeit out of fear.
|42 weeks 16 hours ago||That seems high.||
Last year, Walton and Spike played in all 37 games and combined to play the full 40 minutes per game. They combined for 11.2 points and 4.9 assists. You're essentially asking them to double that production without playing any additional minutes (unless you envision them playing together more frequently this year).
|42 weeks 16 hours ago||Completely agree.||
As a team, Michigan averaged 14 assists per game this year. These predictions have the starting 5 producing 13.5 all by themselves. That seems very optimistic, if not downright unrealistic, particularly if this is supposed to represent the pass/fail baseline.
|42 weeks 4 days ago||I, for one, really appreciate||
I, for one, really appreciate these posts. I think it's great to put the big recent hires into perspective. Thank you for your effort!
|44 weeks 2 days ago||This season.||
I was at both Utah games (2008 and 2014), and was at the 2008 Wisconsin game. I am far more optimistic about this season's start. This year, we are talented but inconsistent. In 2008, we were both untalented and inconsistent.
Thanks for asking.
|46 weeks 15 hours ago||As 31-point blowouts go...||
I remember walking home from the 2007 Oregon game (a 32-point blowout at home) and having a friend rant about how Lloyd Carr (Lloyd Carr!) should be fired on the spot.
We then proceeded to rattle off 8 consecutive wins.
This game reminded me of that game a bit. We got beat. Badly. And not even by an elite team (Oregon ended that year 9-4, as did Michigan). These things happen. Fans take it hard. Then more games are played and things get better.
The Notre Dame game certainly reduces the likelihood that this team will be particularly successful this season (predictions of 11-2 seem pretty off-the-mark at the moment). But, given the schedule, it is still entirely possible that this will be Michigan's best year since 2011. And that would be something worth cheering for.
|46 weeks 2 days ago||Uh...||
3 years and 2 weeks.
|46 weeks 3 days ago||What about 2010?||
How about scoring 7 against OSU in 2010, when the RichRod offense was at its best? Or 14 against Mississippi State? The 17 we scored against MSU at home?
The previous year, we mustered 10 against OSU (at home) and against PSU (also at home). We scored just 13 at Illinois. Illinois! We did manage to put up 20 points in a loss to MSU, but on just 251 yards of total offense (we had more than that last night).
RichRod's two BEST seasons gave us five games with 14 or fewer points (OSU, OSU, PSU, Illinois, Miss. State). Hoke's two WORST seasons gave us . . . six games with 14 or fewer points (Alabama, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Nebraska, MSU, Kansas State). Two of those games featured our backup QBs.
Last year, our offense averged 6.60 yards per play. The year before, it was 7.42. RichRod averaged 6.75 in 2009 and 7.95 in 2010. I'm not seeing the drastic drop off in offensive performance that motivated this thread.
|47 weeks 4 days ago||Ugh.||
Penn State's offensive line looks a lot like ours did last year. Could be a long season for them.
|48 weeks 1 day ago||Actually...||
I just watched his 2013 pre-season press conference at Bama and then watched this one (since the transcript doesn't give you the full picture). While there is a lot of overlop, he was happier and more optimistic in 2013. His responses were primarily about how much certain players had progressed and how much depth there was at each position. He never said anything approaching "we are not where we need to be" or "we're successful in spurts." Maybe this press conference caught him on a bad day, but he really did appear frustrated with some of the inconsistency from his offense.
|1 year 5 weeks ago||I think watching a game at a||
I think watching a game at a country club sounds lovely.
|1 year 11 weeks ago||Agreed.||
Walton is a talent. I would be shocked to see him here as a senior.
|1 year 11 weeks ago||Agreed.||
Kid has a long way to go before he can compete with Finnish products, like Angry Birds, Nokia phones, and Linux.
|1 year 15 weeks ago||Yup.||
Pretty sure it is Yosef on the helmet. But with the colors INVERTED!
|1 year 15 weeks ago||I hate to defend Lunardi, but...||
The NCAA rule is that If teams only have played once previously, they can be bracketed to meet as early as the “third round” (i.e. Round of 32). I belive that Michigan only plays Maryland once (away) next year.
|1 year 15 weeks ago||This is the best Spring Game content so far.||
I love breakdowns like this, where we get to see exactly what was intended and how each player did. If you want to do any additional plays that might give us a look at the Nussmeier offense or the new "over" defense, I woudl love to see them!
|1 year 18 weeks ago||I am an old person who will||
I am an old person who will happen to be in Ann Arbor on business tomorrow. Where should i go to watch the game without getting swarmed by drunk undergrads?
|1 year 18 weeks ago||It's only a statistical||
It's only a statistical fallacy because there is no evidence that being "due" changes the probabilities. But that just means the evidence is "due." It'll stop being a fallacy any day now.
|1 year 20 weeks ago||If that was your point, you||
If that was your point, you didn't provide any evidence for it. Instead, you compared Harris to Stauskas, who also made the list.
So what does a Harris vs. Petteway comparison look like? Using your own criteria:
Shooting Percentages? Harris .421 vs. Pettaway .429
Defense? Harris 2.0 spg; 0.4 bpg vs. Pettaway 0.9 spg; 0.8 bpg
Low-efficiency, high-volume shooter?
Harris has shot the ball 376 times this season with 158 made baskets. Petteway has shot the ball 382 times with a 164 made baskets.
Over the course of the season, Petteway took 6 more shots and . . . made 6 more shots.
Oh yeah, Petteway's team: 18-11. Harris's team: 23-7.
This is totally thread worthy.
|1 year 27 weeks ago||Who said anything about||
Who said anything about "best" teams? This is a pre-season ranking. It is basically a predicton of the final rankings of these teams, which is heavily influenced by schedule difficulty.
|1 year 28 weeks ago||I agree||
I agree, and that's perhaps the best part of this transition for me (though I am excited about Coach Nussmeier). I never joined the "Fire Borges" contingent because I strongly believe there are many worse options. When I first saw that he had been let go, I had a sinking feeling that we'd witness a lengthy search and end up with an uninspiring replacement. But seeing that Coach Hoke and/or Dave Brandon had a strong replacement already lined up has bolstered my faith in both of them. Well done, Michigan.
|1 year 28 weeks ago||Good points, eric.||
Assuming Kalis, Mags, and Glasgow stay in the starting lineup, I expect that the new additions to our offensive line will likely come from Braden (Rs. So.), Bosch (So.), and Kugler (Rs. Fr.). But I suppose there are a lot of others still in the mix.
And just to be clear, I meant that my previous "optimistic" season was 9 wins including the bowl game. I agree with others that a 10-win season (including the bowl game) is a good season, and one we should be happy with. I'm not sure it's likely, but with the possibility of a new offense I no longer think it's entirely out of reach.
|1 year 28 weeks ago||Speculation?||
Given the history of improvement, would a conservative estimate for next year's offense be in the neighborhood of 2011 Washington/Michigan?
|1 year 28 weeks ago||I agree with you about Al||
And I also want to see what happens with the position coaches. That will have a significant impact on our success next season.
I am skeptical that Nuss is a long-term hire. He's a bright young coach on an upward trajectory, and if he has the kind of success here that fans are clamor ing for, I think he will be in contention for HC positions sooner rather than later. While that would be great in the short term - it means success for us - I generally like coaching stability and loyalty. It is heard to be emotionally invested in a coach who feels a bit like a hired gun.
|1 year 28 weeks ago||A Little.||
Unlike many, I had little optimism for next season. The schedule breaks poorly, and we are replacing two NFL-caliber tackles with guys one year removed from high school (and this following a season where we already couldn't run the ball or protect our quarterback). Nine wins was my hope.
I was - and still am - hoping for a change in OL coach and potentially a change in RB coach (though I appreciate all Fred Jackson has done here and am happy to let him retire on his own terms). I think Borges is a good coordinator, and I saw no need to fire him unless Hoke/Brandon already had an upgrade lined up. When I saw the news he was let go, I was initially disappointed and concerned about who we might bring in.
Coach Nuss seems like the best possible candidate for the position, and I am happy that he was swiftly retained (though as I write this, it is still not official). If he is able to bring in an experienced OL coach and/or a RB coach of his choosing, I might be able to raise the ceiling on my optimistic season to 10 wins.
But we still have a lot of talent and experience issues, so I expect next season to more closely resemble the offenses Nuss had at Washington than his offense at Alabama - the team's numbers should be comparable to Borges' average at UM. Borges was trending in the wrong direction, and a change in coordinator can often energize the team, so overall this seems like an upgrade. But it's not a panacea. We're still not a legitimate Big Ten title contender. Right now, I just hope that the team has enough success next year to keep Hoke off the hot seat, and to keep Nuss and Mattison together as the team's coordinators for a little while longer.
|1 year 29 weeks ago||I never thought I'd someday||
I never thought I'd someday be #5 in the "get off my lawn" parade, especilaly here at Mgoblog. But I desperately miss the old system of bowls + voting. A national championship was a reward for a stellar season, but rivalries and conference titles and bowl wins all had so much more significance.
|1 year 29 weeks ago||If winning your conference is||
If winning your conference is all that matters in your system, why even play a non-conference schedule? It's basically pre-season football.